Not Just The Facts: Decisions of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (2006-2010)

Motivation and Methodology Data and Results Interpretation and ImpactA refugee claimant applies for asylum (“refugee status”) in Canada on the grounds that he or she is either a:

Convention Refugee: a person with a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion; or ,

Person in Need of Protection: a person whose removal to his or her country of origin would result in a substantial danger of cruel or unusual treatment or punishment, torture, or death

Claims are decided by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). One board member hears each individual claim. A positive decision (“claim accepted”) allows the claimant to remain in Canada and eventually become a Canadian citizen. A negative decision (“claim rejected”) results in deportation.

There is little avenue for appeal: in 2010, only 14% of cases that applied for a Federal Appeal were granted leave to appeal their case.

There is wide variation in grant rates across the board.

Research Questions

1. What are the sources of variation in asylum grant rates?

2. Is the probability of a claim being accepted correlated with the board member’s observable characteristics?

Description/Examples # of Board Members

% Total Sample

Male Board member is male 126 48Law Degree LLB, JD, Certificate of Laws 98 38Previous Work: IRB/CIC i.e. Refugee Protection Officer 25 10

Previous Work: Refugees, Immigrants, Human Rights

i.e. UNHCR, refugee or immigration law, Jewish immigrant aid services

67 26

Previous Work: Law Enforcement

i.e. Police superintendent, parole officer

16 6

Other Adjudication Experience i.e. Rent Tribunal, Parole Board 35 13

Foreign Educated Educated outside of the U.S. or Canada

20 8

Reappointment Serving this term by virtue of a reappointment.

52 20

Liberal Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Liberal Party of Canada

5 2

Conservative Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Conservative Party of Canada

6 2

Board Member DataData on board members was taken from press releases issued by the government

at the time of the member’s appointment. There are 261 board members in the sample: at least partial information was available for 238 members.

Refugee Claims DataData on refugee claims was retrieved from the website of the Canadian Counsel

for Refugees (http://www.ccrweb.ca). The sample analyzed included 51,515 refugee claims from 171 countries adjudicated from 2006-2010.

Methodology

1. A probit regression of decision on fixed effects for country of origin, board member and year.

2. A probit regression:yi= β0 + (membercharacteristics)iγ + β1countryi + β2yeari + β3officei

+ εi

Where y=1 if a claim is accepted and 0 is a claim is rejected.

Probit Coefficients Probit Discrete ChangesMale -0.048***

(0.013)-0.115***(0.016)

-0.108***(0.016)

-0.019***(0.005)

-0.045***(0.006)

-0.043***(0.006)

Law Degree 0.041***(0.014)

0.048*** (0.017)

0.039**(0.017)

0.016***(0.005)

0.019***(0.007)

0.016**(0.007)

Previous work: IRB/CIC

-0.069***(0.024)

-0.068***(0.024)

-0.027***(0.009)

-0.027***(0.009)

immigrants/ refugees/human rights

0.0151(0.019)

0.0133(0.019)

0.006(0.008)

0.005(0.008)

Law enforcement -0.073**(0.032)

-0.080**(0.032)

-0.029**(0.013)

-0.032**(0.013)

Other adjudicationexperience

-0.113***(0.023)

-0.110***(0.023)

-0.044***(0.009)

-0.043***(0.009)

Foreign education 0.0515**(0.025)

0.0515**(0.025)

0.020**(0.010)

0.020**(0.010)

Reappointment 0.149***(0.017)

0.146***(0.017)

0.059***(0.007)

0.058***(0.007)

Liberal Candidate -0.808***(0.135)

-0.275***(0.035)

Conservative Candidate

0.0322(0.0388)

0.013(0.0154)

Constant 0.903***(0.192)

0.733***(0.208)

0.763***(0.207)

Observations 48,570 37,121 37,121 48,570 37,121 37,121

Pseudo R-squared .1749 .1910 .1918

The country a claimant comes from, the year in which a claim is heard, and the individual board member only account for 26% of the variation in the probability a claim is accepted.

This large, unexplained component is not necessarily a negative reflection on the board. Claims should be heard on a case-by-case basis.

Effect of Board Member Characteristics on Probability of Claim Acceptance

Dependent variable is probability of claim acceptance (1=asylum granted, 0=asylum not granted). Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Fixed effects are included for country of origin, year and office.

Board Member Characteristics do havean effect on the probability that a claim is accepted or denied.

Refugee claims are being determined partially as a function of factors completely

external to the claim.

Policy Prescriptions

Preventative: change the selection or training processes so board members can make more impartial asylum determinations.

Compensatory: recognize that the subjective element can never fully be purged from decision making, and introduce an appeals process for refugee claims.

Innessa Colaiacovo, Brown University Department of Economics (Class of 2012)

Effects of Board Member Characteristics on Probability of Claim Acceptance

Not just the facts: decisions of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (2006-2010)

Motivation and Methodology Data and Results Interpretation and ImpactA refugee claimant applies for asylum (“refugee status”) in Canada on the grounds that he or she is either a:

Convention Refugee: a person with a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion; or ,

Person in Need of Protection: a person whose removal to his or her country of origin would result in a substantial danger of cruel or unusual treatment or punishment, torture or death

Claims are decided by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). One board member hears each individual claim. A positive decision (“claim accepted”) allows the claimant to remain in Canada and eventual lybecome a Canadian citizen. A negative decision results in deportation.

There is little avenue for appeal: only 14% of cases that apply for a Federal Appeal are granted leave to appeal their case.

There is wide variation grant rates across the board.

Research Questions

1. What are the sources of variation in asylum grant rates?

2. Is the probability of a claim being accepted correlated with the board member’s observable characteristics?

Description/Examples # of Board Members

% Total Sample

Male Board member is male 126 48Law Degree LLB, JD, Certificate of Laws 98 38Previous Work: IRB/CIC i.e. Refugee Protection Officer 25 10

Previous Work: Refugees, Immigrants, Human Rights

i.e. UNHCR, refugee or immigration law, Jewish immigrant aid services

67 26

Previous Work: Law Enforcement

i.e. Police superintendent, parole officer

16 6

Other Adjudication Experience i.e. Rent Tribunal, Parole Board 35 13

Foreign Educated Educated outside of the U.S. or Canada

20 8

Reappointment Serving this term by virtue of a reappointment.

52 20

Liberal Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Liberal Party of Canada

5 2

Conservative Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Conservative Party of Canada

6 2

Board Member DataData on board members was taken from press releases issued by the

government at the time of the member’s appointment. There are 261 board members in the sample: at least partial information was available for 238

members.

Refugee Claims DataData on refugee claims was retrieved from the website of the Canadian

Counsel for Refugees (http://www.ccrweb.ca). The sample analyzed included 51,515 refugee claims from 171 countries adjudicated from 2006-2010.

Methodology

1. A probit regression of decision on fixed effects for country of origin, board member and year.

2. A probit regression:yi= β0 + (membercharacteristics)iγ + β1countryi + β2yeari +

β3officei + εi

Where y=1 if a claim is accepted and 0 is a claim is rejected.

Probit Coefficients Probit Discrete ChangesMale -0.048***

(0.013)-0.115***(0.016)

-0.108***(0.016)

-0.019***(0.005)

-0.045***(0.006)

-0.043***(0.006)

Law Degree 0.041***(0.014)

0.048*** (0.017)

0.039**(0.017)

0.016***(0.005)

0.019***(0.007)

0.016**(0.007)

Previous work: IRB/CIC

-0.069***(0.024)

-0.068***(0.024)

-0.027***(0.009)

-0.027***(0.009)

immigrants/ refugees/human rights

0.0151(0.019)

0.0133(0.019)

0.006(0.008)

0.005(0.008)

Law enforcement -0.073**(0.032)

-0.080**(0.032)

-0.029**(0.013)

-0.032**(0.013)

Other adjudicationexperience

-0.113***(0.023)

-0.110***(0.023)

-0.044***(0.009)

-0.043***(0.009)

Foreign education 0.0515**(0.025)

0.0515**(0.025)

0.020**(0.010)

0.020**(0.010)

Reappointment 0.149***(0.017)

0.146***(0.017)

0.059***(0.007)

0.058***(0.007)

Liberal Candidate -0.808***(0.135)

-0.275***(0.035)

Conservative Candidate

0.0322(0.0388)

0.013(0.0154)

Constant 0.903***(0.192)

0.733***(0.208)

0.763***(0.207)

Observations 48,570 37,121 37,121 48,570 37,121 37,121

Pseudo R-squared

.1749 .1910 .1918

The country a claim comes from, the year in which it is heard, and the individual board member only account for 26% of the variation in the probability a claim is accepted.

This large, unexplained component is not necessarily negative

Dependent variable is probability of claim acceptance (1=asylum granted, 0=asylum not granted). Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Fixed effects are included for country of origin, year and office.

Effect of Board Member Characteristics on Probability of Claim Acceptance

Not just the facts: decisions of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (2006-2010)

Motivation and Methodology Data and Results Interpretation and ImpactA refugee claimant applies for asylum (“refugee status”) in Canada on the grounds that he or she is either a:

Convention Refugee: a person with a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion; or ,

Person in Need of Protection: a person whose removal to his or her country of origin would result in a substantial danger of cruel or unusual treatment or punishment, torture or death

Claims are decided by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). One board member hears each individual claim. A positive decision (“claim accepted”) allows the claimant to remain in Canada and eventual lybecome a Canadian citizen. A negative decision results in deportation.

There is little avenue for appeal: only 14% of cases that apply for a Federal Appeal are granted leave to appeal their case.

There is wide variation in the grant rates of individual board members

Research Question

1. Is the probability of a claim being accepted correlated with the board member’s observable characteristics?

Description/Examples # of Board Members

% Total Sample

Male Board member is male 126 48Law Degree LLB, JD, Certificate of Laws 98 38Previous Work: IRB/CIC i.e. Refugee Protection Officer 25 10Previous Work: Refugees, Immigrants, Human Rights

i.e. UNHCR, refugee or immigration law, Jewish immigrant aid services

67 26

Previous Work: Law Enforcement

i.e. Police superintendent, parole officer

16 6

Other Adjudication Experience

i.e. Rent Tribunal, Parole Board 35 13

Foreign Educated Educated outside of the U.S. or Canada

20 8

Reappointment Serving this term by virtue of a reappointment.

52 20

Liberal Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Liberal Party of Canada

5 2

Conservative Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Conservative Party of Canada

6 2

Board Member DataData on board members was taken from press releases issued by the government at the time of the member’s appointment. There are 261 board members in the sample: at least partial information was available for 238 of them.

Refugee Claims DataData on refugee claims was retrieved from the website of the Canadian Counsel for Refugees (http://www.ccrweb.ca). The sample analyzed included 51,515 refugee claims from 171

countries adjudicated from 2006-2010.

Methodology

1. A probit regression:yi= β0 + (membercharacteristics)iγ + β1countryi + β2yeari +

β3officei + εi

Where y=1 if a claim is accepted and 0 is a claim is rejected.

Probit Coefficients Probit Discrete ChangesMale -0.048***

(0.013)-0.115***(0.016)

-0.108***(0.016)

-0.019***(0.005)

-0.045***(0.006)

-0.043***(0.006)

Law Degree 0.041***(0.014)

0.048*** (0.017)

0.039**(0.017)

0.016***(0.005)

0.019***(0.007)

0.016**(0.007)

Previous work: IRB/CIC

-0.069***(0.024)

-0.068***(0.024)

-0.027***(0.009)

-0.027***(0.009)

Previous work: immigrants/ refugees/human rights

0.0151(0.019)

0.0133(0.019)

0.006(0.008)

0.005(0.008)

Previous work: law enforcement

-0.073**(0.032)

-0.080**(0.032)

-0.029**(0.013)

-0.032**(0.013)

Other adjudicationexperience

-0.113***(0.023)

-0.110***(0.023)

-0.044***(0.009)

-0.043***(0.009)

Foreign education 0.0515**(0.025)

0.0515**(0.025)

0.020**(0.010)

0.020**(0.010)

Reappointment 0.149***(0.017)

0.146***(0.017)

0.059***(0.007)

0.058***(0.007)

Liberal Candidate -0.808***(0.135)

-0.275***(0.035)

Conservative Candidate

0.0322(0.0388)

0.013(0.0154)

Constant 0.903***(0.192)

0.733***(0.208)

0.763***(0.207)

Observations 48,570 37,121 37,121 48,570 37,121 37,121Pseudo R-squared .1749 .1910 .1918

The country a claim comes from, the year in which it is heard, and the individual board member only account for 26% of the variation in the probability a claim is accepted.

This large, unexplained component is not necessarily negative