Study # 1612 November 2002 $3900

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Plastic to continue gainingmarket share on paper inpackaging applicationsPlastic packaging will continue to makeinroads vis-a-vis its paper and paperboardpackaging counterparts through 2006, ex-panding 3.3 percent per year to 10.7 billionpounds in 2006. Gains will be predicatedupon plastic’s light weight, strength,moisture-resistance and durability. Plasticpackaging also has storage, production anddistribution advantages over other packag-ing mediums. Low cost, clarity, moisture-resistance and high barrier properties ofplastic are difficult, if not impossible, forpaper to match.

Plastic packaging trendsBest plastic packaging growth opportuni-ties are anticipated in areas such asshipping drums, snacks, egg cartons, juiceand fruit containers and candy. Plastic petfood pouches will also expand rapidly atthe expense of multilayer paper sacks andpaperboard boxes due to their better barrierproperties and consumer convenience inresealability. Plastic packaging demandwill also continue to benefit from techno-logical and processing advances resultingin faster line speeds and better performanceattributes such as increased barrier proper-ties, puncture resistance and clarity.

Paper packaging trendsPaper and paperboard packaging is wellestablished and competitive in manysegments due to its better environmentalprofile and continued cost efficiencies.Nonetheless, paper packaging will continueto lose market share to plastic packagingvirtually across-the-board due to the betterperformance attributes of plastics. Best

growth potential for paper and paperboardpackaging is expected in areas such ascarry-out and prepared foods, shippingsacks and juice and fruit drinks based onpaper’s strength, breathability and priceadvantages in smaller containers such asjuice. Most rapid losses will occur in eggcartons, milk cartons and retail bags/sacks.

Industry compositionThe packaging sector is dominated bylarge, multinational packaging firms withfurther consolidation anticipated in light ofcontinual needs for expansion and newproduct development. Packaging concernscommonly specialize on the basis of majorproduct (e.g., retail bags), material (paperor plastic) or end-use market (food, bever-age, etc.). Nonetheless, much cross- andmulti-line participation among packagingfirms also exists.

Study coverageDetails on these and other major findingsare contained in the new Freedonia study,Paper vs. Plastic in Packaging, availablefor $3900. This study analyzes selectedcompetitive paper and plastic packagingmarkets in the US, with a focus on the lossof traditional paper-based packaging mar-kets to plastics. Historical data through2001 plus forecasts to 2006 and 2011 areprovided for competitive paper and plasticpackaging applications.

The market environment is analyzed, aswell as developments in retail sales andmanufacturing activity, pricing factors andinternational markets. An overview of theindustry structure includes a discussion ofcompetitive variables, assessment ofmarket shares and profiles of key playerssuch as Bemis, International Paper, Pactiv,Printpack and Sonoco Products.

Paper vs. Plastic in Packaging

Total Competitive (Paper& Plastic) PackagingDemand in the US(19.3 billion pounds, 2001)

Save 15%see order formon back page

Paper53%Plastic

47%

US forecasts to 2006 & 2011

NNNNNEW STEW STEW STEW STEW STUUUUUDDDDDYYYYY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MARKET ENVIRONMENTGeneralMacroeconomic OutlookDemographic & Household Trends

Age Distribution PatternsOther Demographic Trends

Consumer Income & SpendingRetail SalesManufacturing Outlook

Nondurable GoodsFood Product OutlookBeverages OutlookChemicals & Other Nondurables

Raw Material Pricing TrendsPaperPlastic

Environmental & Regulatory ConsiderationsRecycling Trends

PACKAGING OVERVIEWCompetitive Packaging Variables

PerformancePriceAesthetics & Marketing ValueEnvironmental Image

Packaging TypesRigid ContainersFlexible Packaging

Packaging MaterialsPaperPlastic

COMPETITIVE PRODUCT PACKAGINGGeneralSnacks

PlasticFlexible PackagingRigid Containers

Paper

Meat, Poultry & FishPlastic

TraysRigid ContainersFlexible Packaging

PaperProduce

PlasticFlexible PackagingTrays

PaperBags

Dairy ProductsPlastic

Rigid ContainersFlexible PackagingFilm Wrap

PaperRigid ContainersFlexible Packaging

MilkPlastic BottlesPaperboard Cartons

Egg CartonsPaper CartonsPlastic Cartons

Dry FoodsPlastic

Flexible PackagingRigid Containers

PaperRigid ContainersFlexible Packaging

DetergentsPlasticPaper

Baked GoodsPaper

Rigid ContainersFlexible Packaging

PlasticFlexible PackagingFilm Wrap

CandyPlastic

Flexible PackagingRigid Containers

PaperFlexible PackagingRigid Containers

Juice & Fruit DrinksPaper CartonsPlastic

BottlesPouches

Frozen FoodPlastic

Flexible PackagingRigid Containers

PaperFlexible PackagingRigid Containers

Carry Out & Prepared FoodsPlastic

Rigid ContainersFlexible Packaging

PaperRigid ContainersFlexible Packaging

Pet FoodPaper

Flexible PackagingBoxes

Plastic

COMPETITIVE SHIPPING & RETAIL PRODUCTSGeneralRetail Bags & SacksShipping Containers

DrumsSacks

INDUSTRY STRUCTUREGeneralMarket ShareMergers & AcquisitionsManufacturing & Product DevelopmentMarketing & DistributionIntegrationCooperative AgreementsCompany Profiles

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1 Summary Table

MARKET ENVIRONMENT1 Macroeconomic Environment2 Demographic Trends3 Consumer Expenditures4 Retail Sales5 Manufacturers’ Shipments6 Nondurable Goods Shipments7 Food Product Shipments8 Beverage Demand9 Durable Goods Shipments

10 Paper Pricing Trends11 Plastic Pricing Trends

PACKAGING OVERVIEW1 Packaging Demand by Type2 Rigid Containers Demand

Cht Competitive Rigid Container Demandby Type, 2001

3 Flexible Packaging DemandCht Competitive Flexible Packaging Demand

by Type, 20014 Packaging Demand by Material5 Paper Packaging Demand

Cht Paper Packaging Demand by Type, 20016 Plastic Packaging Demand

Cht Plastic Packaging Demand by Type, 2001

COMPETITIVE PRODUCT PACKAGING1 Competitive Paper & Plastic

Packaging Demand

Cht Competitive Product Packagingby Market, 2001

2 Snack Markets for Paper & Plastic Packaging3 Meat Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging4 Produce Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging5 Dairy Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging6 Milk Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging7 Paperboard Milk Carton Demand8 Plastic Milk Packaging Demand9 Egg Carton Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging10 Molded Pulp Egg Carton Demand11 Plastic Egg Carton Demand12 Dry Food Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging13 Detergent Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging14 Paperboard Detergent Container Demand13 Plastic Detergent Packaging Demand14 Baked Goods Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging15 Candy Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging16 Fruit Beverage Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging17 Paperboard Fruit Beverage Container Demand18 Plastic Fruit Beverage Packaging Demand19 Frozen Food Markets for Competitive

Paper & Plastic Packaging

Preliminary List of Tables & Chartseach table includes forecasts through 2006 & 2011

PreliminaryTable of Contents

20 Carry-Out Markets for CompetitivePaper & Plastic Packaging

21 Pet Food Markets for CompetitivePaper & Plastic Packaging

COMPETITIVE SHIPPING & RETAIL PRODUCTS1 Competitive Shipping & Retail

Products DemandCht Competitive Shipping & Retail

Products Demand, 20012 Competitive Shipping Sack Demand3 Paper Shipping Sack Demand4 Plastic Shipping Sack Demand5 Competitive Shipping Drum Demand6 Plastic Shipping Drum Demand7 Fibre Shipping Drum Demand8 Paper & Plastic Retail Bag & Sack Demand9 Paper Retail Bag & Sack Demand

10 Plastic Retail Bag & Sack Demand

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE1 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures2 Selected Cooperative Agreements3 Selected Competitive Paper & Plastic

Packaging Companies

presented for over40 competitors inthe US industry

COMPANY PROFILES

COMPETITIVE PRODUCT PACKAGING

Egg CartonsShelled egg consumption in the US is expected to increase little more than

one percent yearly through 2006 to 53.5 billion. Eggs will continue to be mar-keted as an affordable protein source, with the continued development of lowercholesterol eggs and scientific/medical evidence questioning the link betweenegg consumption and cardiovascular disease. Egg carton demand will expandmore than one percent annually to 2.9 billion units in 2006, requiring 162 millionpounds of molded pulp and plastic. Slightly slower carton weight growth reflectsthe fact that advances will be concentrated in plastic cartons, which are lighterthan their molded pulp counterparts.

Plastic egg carton demand will continue to outstrip its molded pulpcounterpart, raising its percentage of total units to 60 percent in 2006. Furtheradvances will be limited by moderation in packaged egg consumption broughtabout by a decline in home baking activity in favor of prebaked items, increaseduse of lower cholesterol egg products such as EGG BEATERS, and morebreakfast meals being consumed outside of the home. Polystyrene offers superiorcushioning properties compared to molded pulp cartons, which is a crucial con-sideration in egg packaging. A recent development has been the introduction ofclear polyethylene terephthalate egg cartons. Due to their higher cost, however,it is expected that these cartons will be used for the packaging of premium shelleggs based on their upscale appearance and ability to let consumers check foregg breakage before purchasing.

Molded pulp egg carton demand will continue to decline through 2006 to1.1 billion units and 71 million pounds. Molded paper containers will continueto lose market share to plastic packaging, although the rate of loss will berestrained by the environmentally friendly reputation of paper compared topolystyrene. Advantages of molded paper include degradability, durability andlow cost.

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Freedonia study #1612 - “Paper vs. Plastic in Packaging”

COMPETITIVE PRODUCT PACKAGING

Source: The Freedonia Group, Inc.

Carry-Out & Prepared FoodsPlastic carry-out food and prepared food containers will continue to make

inroads via-a-vis paper and paperboard due to their low cost, light weight andperformance advantages such as moisture resistance. Plastic pouch demand willalso expand rapidly in light of its convenience and cost effectiveness. Plasticpackaging will also benefit from the popularity of home meal replacements, in-store salad bars and other food industry segments which rely disproportionatelyon plastic containers. Carry-out food service products include clamshells andrelated containers. High visibility clamshells are gaining ground over other typesof restaurant takeout containers and are often used in supermarkets for prepared

© Copyright by The Freedonia Group, Inc. sample page

TABLE IV-10

FROZEN FOOD MARKETS FOR COMPETITIVEPAPER & PLASTIC PACKAGING

(million pounds)

Item 1992 1996 2001 2006 2011

Frozen Foods Shipments (bil 1996$) 15.2 18.3 21.2 24.2 27.8lbs pkg/000$ shpts 52.8 48.6 45.6 43.7 41.6

Frozen Food Packaging Demand 802 889 966 1058 1157Paper: 614 658 696 740 785

Rigid Containers 378 393 406 420 435Trays 160 185 205 230 255Flexible Packaging 76 80 85 90 95

Plastic: 188 231 270 318 372Flexible Packaging 99 112 117 129 142Trays 64 81 108 134 165Pouches 25 38 45 55 65

% plastic 23.4 26.0 28.0 30.1 32.2% paper 76.6 74.0 72.0 69.9 67.8

SAMPLEPAGE

Data supportedwith the aid of

nearly 60 tablesand charts

Explanations tosupport eachtable’s data

and forecasts

Historical datathrough 2001plus Freedonia

forecasts to2006 and 2011

SAMPLETABLE

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PouchesManufacturing technology enhancements, coupledwith higher end-user performance requirements andefforts by producers to draw attention to their pro-ducts, will drive growth in the rapidly expandingUS market for packaging pouches. This studyanalyzes the US flat and stand-up pouch industry to2006 and 2011 by pouch construction, feature andapplication. It also examines raw material andmachinery trends, evaluates industry market share,reviews mergers and acquisitions, and profiles theleading competitors.#1614 .......................... 11/2002 ............................. $3900

Plastic ContainersUS plastic container demand will increase 4.1% peryear through 2006. Gains on other materials willbe based on plastic’s clarity, light weight, designflexibility, strength, shatter resistance, barrierproperties, tamper evidence, and ease of openingand dispensing. Bottles will remain the dominanttype, while PET displaces HDPE as the leadingresin. This study analyzes the $11.3 billion USplastic containers industry to 2006 and 2011 bytype, resin and application. It also presents marketshare data and profiles key companies.#1599 .......................... 09/2002 ............................. $3800

Plastic FilmUS demand for plastic film will reach 14.6 billionpounds in 2006, driven by cost and performanceadvantages over other materials, as well as tech-nology and processing improvements. Low densitypolyethylene will remain the dominant resin whilepolypropylene, high density polyethylene andethylene vinyl alcohol film grow the fastest. Thisstudy analyzes the 12.8 billion pound US plasticfilm industry to 2006 and 2011 by type, applicationand market. It also evaluates market share and pro-files key companies.#1588 .......................... 09/2002 ............................. $3900

World Pressure Sensitive TapesThe global pressure sensitive (self-adhesive) tapemarket will grow 5.5% through 2006, driven in partby the new, high-performance tapes. Corrugatedcarton sealing tapes will remain the largest volume

segment, while technical and specialty tapes used inindustrial fastening and bonding grow the fastest.The study details the US$14 billion world pressuresensitive tapes industry to 2006 and 2011 by type,material, region and for 23 countries. It also pre-sents market shares and profiles major competitors.#1569 .......................... 08/2002 ............................. $4800

Pharmaceutical PackagingDrug packaging demand in the US will grow 4.3%yearly through 2006. Blister packaging will remainthe top group based on strength in unit dose,compliance, clinical trial, high barrier and highvisibility formats. Pouches and strip packs willcompete with blister in unit dose. Prefillableinhalers and syringes will grow the fastest in marketvalue. This study analyzes the $4.2 billion US drugpackaging industry to 2006 and 2011 by material,product and end-use. It also details market shareand profiles key firms.#1546 .......................... 04/2002 ............................. $3800

World Converted Flexible PackagingWorld demand for converted flexible packagingwill rise 4.6% per year through 2005. Growth willbe driven by new applications and further gains onrigid containers, based on environmental advan-tages and improving barrier properties andconvenience. Plastic films will expand their leadover paper and foil. This study analyzes the US$38billion world converted flexible packaging industryto 2005 and 2010 by material, market, region andfor 17 countries. It also evaluates market share andprofiles key firms.#1512 .......................... 01/2002 ............................. $4700