net internal migration by marital status for panama: females 1950-1960

NET INTERNAL MIGRATION BY MARITAL STATUS FOR PANAMA: FEMALES 1950-1960Author(s): Bali RamSource: Social and Economic Studies, Vol. 20, No. 3 (September, 1971), pp. 319-332Published by: Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, University of the WestIndiesStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27856489 .

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319

NET INTERNAL MIGRATION BY MARITAL STATUS FOR PANAMA: FEMALES 1950-1960

By Bali Ram*

Introduction:

There is little need to emphasize the importance of internal migration for any country. The important role played by internal migration in the growth and

development of a particular area of a country, has been studied by many demographers. There are two methods of estimating net internal migration

? place of birth data and

census survival ratio method. Here we are concerned with the latter one.

The uses and benefits of census survival ratio method have been widely discussed by a number of demographers, notably Hamilton and Henderson (1944), Siegel and Hamilton (1952), Price (1951-1955), Lee and Lee (1960), Zachariah

(1962, 1964), Traver (1962) and many others. Some other studies have estimated differential migration by using this method but perhaps no one has yet tried to estimate net migration by marital status where the only data available are the popula tion at two successive censuses by age, sex, and marital status.

This paper is an attempt to fill the above gap in the context of Panama. Although the Census Division of Panama has already estimated internal migration by using the

place of birth data (Appendix I), no attempt has been made in the direction of

estimating the same by marital status, probably because of the unavailability of cross-tabulation by marital status and place of birth. In the present paper, we shall

try to use the census survival ratio method in estimating the intercensal net

migration by marital status for this country for the period 1950-1960.

Thus there are two major objectives of this paper: 1) to develop a methodology to estimate intercensal net migration by marital status if age distribution of the

population by sex and marital status are available; and 2) to study the differential net migration by marital status.

This paper deals with the net migration for females of age 15 and over. Although it could be estimated for all ages by sex, limitations of time prohibited an exhaustive

study, and it was thought best to restrict the area of study. Data Used:

In this study, we have not been able to utilize the migration data made available by the Census Division of Panama because, as we have already said, the

place of birth data were not tabulated by marital status. We are using Censuses of Panama 1950 and 1960 which provide detailed data by age, sex, and marital status. No other secondary data have been used in this study.

*The author wishes to acknowledge his thanks to Dr. G.E. Ebanks, Assistant Professor Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London Canada and Mr. C.S.R. Murty, Statistician, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India for their encouragement and helpful comments.

Neither of them, however, is responsible for any errors.



320 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STUDIES

The population of Panama consists of five categories by marital status i.e. single (saltero), legally married (casado), consensually married (union consensualmente), divorced (divorciado) and widowed (vivdo). To make the computations easier, we have combined legally married and consensually married in one category which will hereafter be called married.

The age data have not been smoothed due to the assumptions made regarding misstatement of age and under-enumeration within age groups (see assumptions 2 and

5). However, it can be observed that a marked number of females have not stated their age and marital status in the 1950 census in almost all the provinces. This

pattern was not very remarkable in the 1960 census. Therefore, we have prorated the

figures noted as "not stated" (no declarado) for each province in both the censuses. We could have disregarded these figures. But since most of those under 'not stated' in the census 1950 were possibly enumerated according to their age and marital status in the census 1960, it was almost essential to use proration to present a

better picture.

Basic Assumptions:

Although in this paper appropriate assumptions are discussed at appropriate places, it would be worthwhile to look at the major assumptions taken in this

study which have also been discussed by some of the earlier studies. They are as

follows:

1) The national population is closed. The net international migration between 1950 and 1960 is negligible.

2) Misstatements of age are in the same proportion for each province as for the whole country.

3) The mortality rate by age, sex and marital status is the same for each

province as for the whole country.

4) There is no differential mortality by marital status.

5) Under-enumeration within age groups does not vary between provinces, and is the same as for the whole country.

6) No woman will marry after the age 39-40.

7) Patterns of marital status (single, married, widowed, etc.) are the same for each province as for the country.

Methodology:

A census survival ratio is defined as simply the ratio of population at a

particular age group at a particular census to the population at a younger age group by the census interval. In case of Panama where census interval is of ten years and the

age distribution is given in five-year age groups, it can be expressed as follows:

pt+10 R

_ 5JC + 10 - 5JC + 14

Pt Sx ~ 5JC+4



INTERNAL MIGRATION - PANAMA 1950-1960 321

where R symbolizes the ten year survival ratio (from age group (5x? 5x+4) to

(5x+10?5x+14)); and , x and t signify population, age and time (census period), respectively. It should be borne in mind that this ratio is calculated for male and female separately because of the differential mortality by sex. Secondly this method is not applicable for the age group 0-4 and 5-9 because of the births taking place during the intercensal period. Since we are not interested here to calculate migration for

age group 15-19 and below it is not necessary to discuss the above adjustments.

The survival ratios calculated from the population of the whole of the country are multiplied to the population aged (5x?5x+4) at time t of any part of the same

country in order to get an estimated population for the same geographical area at the end of the decade i.e. at time ?+10. This estimated number for age group (5x+10

?

5 :+14) is compared with the observed number of the same age group at time ?+10, and the difference is known to be intercensal net migration at a particular age and of a

particular sex. "It is defined as the difference between the total number of persons ever entering the area during the decade and the total number of persons ever leaving the area during the decade". (Siegel and Hamilton, 1952, pp. 481-82). Now the formula to estimate net migration (TV) between time t and ?+10 can be written as

follows:

R (PL ~ 5**4)

Here we are not going into the discussions of validity of this method and

validity of the assumptions, as it has been already been discussed very exhaustively

by various demographers (1944, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1962, 1964). On the basis of this method we are making an attempt to develop a methodology to estimate intercensal net migration by marital status. Since we have already delimited our area of study to female migration we shall discuss hereafter the methodology applicable to female population only.1

As we know that population of Panama consists of persons, single, married, widowed, divorced and separated, it is obvious that the migrants must also fall into the same categories. Thus the main problem before us is simply to estimate these

categories at time ?+10 and to take the difference from the enumerated population at time ?+10. Then the net migration by marital status represents the balance of all

movements, including those of persons who died, got married, were widowed, were

divorced or remained single, who entered the province or left the province during the intercensal period. It would include the return multiple movement, remarriage, rewidowed and redivorced of the same" individual.

To estimate the population by marital status, it is essential to discuss the

probabilities of remaining single, getting married, widowed and divorced during the period t to ?+10 (decade synthetic probability).

^his method can be used for the estimation of net migration of males also.

= +10 5x + 10 -- 5x+14




Decade probability of remaining single is the ratio of proportion single at a particular age group at time r+10 to the proportion single at a younger age by ten years (census interval) at time t (Agarwala, 1962) as shown in the following expression:

P(S) = of+10 5X+10 ? 5X+14

5x 5x+4

where p(S) indicates probability of remaining single from age group 5x~5x+4 to 5 +10~5 +14 during the decade. It is clear that it takes mortality also into consideration.

To calculate decade probability of getting married and remaining as married we have to take the mortality pattern of husbands into consideration. Assuming that the husbands in average are five years older than wives, the joint probability of marrying and surviving as married can be expressed as follows:

-il

p(m) = R-p(S) pi+10

5 + 5- 5JC+19

Pt 5x+5 - 5JC+9

where p(m) denotes the probability of getting married and surviving as married for women from age group 5x?5x+4 to 5 +9--5 :+14 during the decade, and M stands for male. This probability includes the decade probability of getting divorced; secondly, it should be kept in mind that this probability is applicable to women up to the age group 35-39 to 45-49 only, because it is assumed that no woman will marry beyond the age 39-40. Thus it cannot be used to calculate probability of getting married from age group 40-44 to 50-54 and beyond.

Now the probability of being widowed, of those who married, were widowed and survived during the intercensal period (p(W))9 can simply be derived by the following expressions:

p(W)= [r-p(sJ^-p(m) Here it seems worthwhile to make clear distinction between this widowhood and the widowhood of the females who were already observed to be married at time

t. Let

f pi+10 5 +15 -

\

5JC+19

- 5x+9

M

be denoted by 7z ' then the latter probability of being

widowed from age group 5x-5x+4 to 5x+9--5x+14 can be calculated by the following expression:

p(w) =

R(l-h)

It is important to note that all the above probabilities should be calculated for the whole of the country and then should be applied to the part of the same country.




Now our calculations for estimating net migration by marital status become easy. Net migration for single female population i.Q.N(S) can be calculated by the following formula:

N(S) = oi+10 5x+9-5jc+14

. r5f 5x-5x+4.R.(?-p(m))

The estimation of net migration for currently married is somewhat a more

complex process. It includes the females: a) who survived as married from those observed as married at time t ; and b) who survived as married from those who got married during the intercensal period. This second category includes not only single women, but also those in the categories divorced and widowed, who got married during the period. Now the formula to estimate net migration for currently married can be given as follows:

N(Q = 5x+9-5x +

14] -[{54-5*+4 RP<m>h

}+{C/*~5*+4^ j

where Q S, W and D stand for currently married, single, widowed and divorced,

respectively. This formula estimates net migration of married women only up to the age group 45-49 because of the assumption No. 6. Therefore, it is assumed that

married migrants beyond this age group would either get widowed and survive or

would die.

Net migration for widowed can be worked out by the following formula:

N(W) =

[KIU +14 ] - [{^-5^4?^ }

+ { SL--5x+^PM(^ }

+ { C5x-5*+4'*- M

} +

{ WL-Sx+4-R-PW M }

+ { DL-Sx+4-R'P(m> <X-h>

)

Thus N(W) includes survivors of the widows observed at time t, those who got widowed from the married observed at time t and those who got widowed during the intercensal period. The last category comes from single, widowed and divorced.




To estimate net migration of divorced the following formula can be used:

N^ ^LT-Sx+m]

- [?5*~5*+4*]|

The above expression gives an underestimated picture of divorced migrants because it does not include the females who got divorced during the intercensal

period. Actually as we have seen above, intercensal divorced women are included in the category of currently married. But since divorces in Panama are in such a small number and proportion, it may not affect the results very markedly.

Findings:

Panama is a country of nine provinces i.e. Bocas del Toro, Code, Colon,

Chiriqui, Darrien, Herrera, Las Santos, Panama and Veraguas. The above methodology has been used separately for each of these provinces. Population aged 15-19 onward for

total as well as for each marital category observed at census 1950 has been estimated for the year, 1960. These estimated figures for age groups i.e. 15-19,20-24.and 75+ are deducted from the enumerated population of the corresponding age groups in 1960 census to get intercensal net migration. The total net migration during the

period 1950-1960 for each province by age group is given in Table 1.

According to Table 1, it seems that Panama is the only province that has attracted

majority of the migrants from other provinces of the country, although Bocas del

Toro has also been observed to be attracting a few. This finding tallies with that estima

ted by the census Division of Panama (Appendix 1). But it can be seen that there is

marked difference between these results so far as the number of net migrants is

concerned. There may be three main reasons for these differences: a) these two

estimates are based on two different methods. In our study, census survival ratio

method has been used while Census Division of Panama has used the place of birth

data; b) While computing intercensal net migration, census Division of Panama has perhaps used the following method:

^1950-60 =

(71960 _

?1960^ ~

^1950 ~

^1950^ 0R

(71960 ~

71950 ) +

(^1950 ~

^1960^

where stands for total net migrants, and / and O signify inmigrants and outmigrants,

respectively. But the above formula fails to estimate the true figures because of not

taking intercensal mortality into consideration (Zachariah, 1964, pp. 47-62). Overall ten years survival ratio could be used to remove this error;2 c) we have not been able to give estimates below age group 15-19 while the Census Division of Panama presents the total estimates. Since the younger population consists of higher proportion in

this country, there might be larger number of younger migrants also.

2 Zachariah gives the following expression to estimate life time intercensal migration:

Af= (Ij -

O2) - Wi

- ) where S signifies the overall decade survival ratio.



TABLE l. Net Intercensal Migration for Provinces of Panama : Females : 1950- 1960

Bocas

del Las

Age Group Code Santos Colon Chiriqui Darien Herrera Panama Veraguas Total

15-19 14 -1,515 -1,078 -162 -809 -229 -426 5,790 -1,765 0 20-24 7 -1,067 -1,047 -108 -490 -128 -450 4,841 -1,558 0

2 H W

25-29 85 -291 -524 -113 -214 2 -255 2,255 -965 0 ?

> r

30-34 34 -289 -451 -98 -236 -9 -236 1,662 -377 0 35-39 13 -146 -271 -156 -15 35 -156 1,222 -526 0 g

40-44 28 12 -118 -308 46 -25 -48 639 -226 0 g 45-49 -4 -210 -51 -230 -3 -26 49 835 -360 0 > 50-54 -14 .16 -143 -167 17 -13 -79 605 -190 0 3 55-59 -12 -3 -15 -195 ^0 -13 3 541 -266 0 *

60-64 -15 -41 -4 91 -37 7 -66 385 -137 0 ̂

65-69 -30 -32 -23 -91 6 -11 -26 250 -43 0

70-74 2 - 20 -68 0 -20 1 -32 321 -184 0 g 75+ - 15 -52 -47 -53 39 -3 -100 408 -177 0 ^

-,-;- v?>

Total 93 3,670 - 3,840 -1,772

-1,756

-412 -1,822 19,934 -6,754 0 9

_ VO ON O




Our estimates of net migration by marital status include the females migrating from one place to another and changing their marital status also during the decade. This is the reason why as is clear from the Table 2, married and divorced females are observed to be having net inmigration and single and widowed experience net out

migration. It seems that during the decade singles have moved out from all provinces

TABLE 2. Net Intercens al Migration for Provinces of Panama By Marital Status : Females : 1950 - 1960

Marital Status

Provinces Single Married Widowed Divorced Total

Bocas del Toro -233 492 -183 17 93

Code -2,327 -373 -983 13 -3,670 Las Santos -1,892 -895 -1,069 16 -3,840

Colon -155 -593 -1,073 49 -1,772

Chiriqui -1,845 1,468 -1,471 92 -1,756

Darien -469 201 -146 2 -412

Herrera -1,025 -149 -660 12 -1,822

Panama 10,935 10,063 -1,854 790 19,934

Veraguas -3,647 -1,638 -1,462 -7 -6,754

Total -658 8,576 8,901 983 0

while Panama is the only province which experiences inmigration of singles. But

inmigration of married is experienced by Bocas del Toro, Chiriqui, Darrien and Panama while the other five provinces experience outmigration of married. It is surprising to note that all the nine provinces have observed net outmigration of widows.

Similarly each province except Veraguas experiences inmigration of divorced. As we have discussed in the methodology, migration of divorced is probably under estimated and of married overestimated because of the fact that we have not been able to separate outmigrants becoming divorced from the married during the intercensal period. However, due to very small number of divorced women in Panama, it may not make too much difference in our estimates.

Net outmigration of single females of younger ages has generally been experienced by almost all provinces except Panama (Table 3). This is what one would expect because of the fact that they might be moving to get settled somewhere by getting married or by entering in the labour force. Because of the assumption that probability of getting married in the later ages is nil, whilst migrants of younger ages are changing from single status to the married status, perhaps singles in the later ages are returning to their places of origin because there is no probability of getting married. Move

ment of married women may be simply because of the movement of husbands.



INTERNAL MIGRATION - PANAMA 1950-1960

TABLE 3. Net Inter nsal Migration i or Provinces or Panama by Age and Marital Status. Females: 1950-1960

Marital Status

Age Single Married Widowed Divorced Total

BOCAS DEL TORO

15-19 -111 127 -2 0 14 20-24 -58 63 0 2 7

25-29 -2 99 -13 1 85 30-34 -21 73 -21 3 34

35-39 -22 46 -12 1 13 40-44 -18 68 -26 4 28

45-49 -6 8 -9 3 -4 50-54 10 0 -26 2 -14 55-59 -3 2 -14 3 -12

60-64 -3 13 4 -3 -15 65-69 6 8 -28 0 -30

70-74 -4 21 -15 0 2 75+ -1 6 -21 1 -15

Total -233 492 -183 17 93

COCLE

15-19 -1,454 -46 -16 1 -1,515 20-24 -520 -553 3 3 -1,067

25-29 -229 33 -97 2 -291 30-34 -176 4 -120 3 -289

35-39 -85 14 -80 5 -146 40-44 -20 167 -132 -3 12

45-49 21 -118 -108 -5 -210 50-54 41 44 -105 4 -46

55-59 37 25 -67 2 -3 60-64 37 -23 -58 3 -41

65-69 24 16 -73 1 -32 70-74 12 22 -52 -2 -20

75+ -15 42 -78 -1 -52

Total -2,327 -373 -983 13 -3,670

LASSANTOS 15-19 -

1,123 55 -10 0 -1,078 20-24 669 -389 8 3 -1,047

25-29 245 -199 -85 5 -524 30-34 121 -208 -133 11 -451

35-39 43 -152 -77 1 -271 40-44 52 -24 -143 -3 -118

45-49 60 -9 -100 -2 - 51 50-54 38 -32 -150 1 -143

55-59 50 -23 -44 2 -15 60-64 67 9 -81 1 -4

65-69 32 29 -82 -2 -23 70-74 11 8 -63 -2 -68

75+ 21 40 -109 1 -47

Total -1,892 -895 -1,069 16 -3,840




Table 3 Contd.

15-19

20-24

25-29

30 34 35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-75

75+

Total

COLON -57

92

-30

-46

-52

-39

-18

-43

-4

17

-15

12

28

-155

-100

-207

-17

24

-40

-114

-104

1

-146

-47

46

44

67

-593

-11

-2

-87

-120

-74

-165

-106

-116

-37

-50

-116

-54

-144

-1,073

6

9

21

44

10

1

-2

-9

-8

-11

-6

-2

-4

49

-162

-108

-113

-98

-156

-308

-230

-167

-195

-91

-91

0

-53

-1,772

CHIRIQUI 15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45^49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Total

-1,412 -490

-180

-104

-62

9

77

80

79

66

36

31

25

-1,845

621 -9 134 83 128 250 55 74

-29

-22

72

27

84

1,468

-26

-4

-186

-233

-103

-219

-140

-146

-88

-83

-104

-72

-71

-1,471

6

13

16

18

22

6

5

9

-2

2

2

-6

1

92

-809

-490

-214

-236

^5

46

-3

17

-40

-37

6

-20

39

-1,756

DARIEN

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-75

75+

Total

-312

-143

-40

-18

6

-18

-6

10

12

17

2

5

16

-469

85

15

48

10

35

14

-5

-3

-9

8

-3

5

1

201

-2 0

-6 -2 -6

-21

-15

-21

-16

-18

-10

-9

-20

146

-229

-128

2

-9

35

-25

-26

-13

-13

7

-11

1

-3

-412




Table 3 Contd. HERRERA 15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Total

-626

-344

-88

-76

-21

-7

46

15

54

7

2

8

5

-1,025

206 -112

-99

-63

-94

14

19

-24

-23

-11

18

17

3

-149

-7

4

-72

-100

-40

-60

-16

-69

-27

-61

-47

-57

-108

-660

1

2

4

3

-1

5

1

-1

-1

-1

0

0

12

-426

-450

-255

-236

-156

-48

49

-79

3

-66

-26

-32

-100

-1,822

PANAMA 15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-75

75+

Total

5,713

3,452 759 30

-168

-89

256 208 268 222 100 79

105

10,935

280 1,304

1,684

1,908

1,454

1,167 720 567 173 167 258 159 222

10,063

-34

16

-330

-467

-215

-515

-241

-199

85

3

-113

81

75

-1,854

11

69

142 191 151 76 100 29 15

-8 6 2 6

790

5,970

4,841

2,255

1,662

1,222 639 835 605 541 383 250 321 408

19,934

VERAGUAS 15-19 20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

-2,048

-1,130 -479

-113

-78

-37

58

70

48

75

38

-25

-26

300 -456

-320

-97

-385

-10

-302

-97

-186

-95

12

-15

13

-20

23

-150

-171

-65

-179

-115

-151

-123

-114

-89

-144

-164

3

5

4

4

2

0

-1

-12

-5

-3

-4

0

0

-1,765

-1,558 -945

-377

-526

-226

-360

-190

-266

-137

^3

-184

-177

Total -3,647 -1,638 1,462 -7 -6,754



330 social and economic studies

Outmigration of widows of all age groups may be due to the fact that they are willing to get remarried or to return to their places of origin after their widowhood. Divorced are in such small numbers that it seems difficult to draw any conclusion.

It is also clear that females from each marital status are considerably more mobile in the younger ages i.e. below 40-44 than in the older ages. Singles in younger ages may be moving to get married, married in these ages may be moving with their husbands, and widowed and divorced to get remarried. Demographically, it also might be due to the fact that there is a larger number of people in the lower age groups. In general, a greater number of married and widowed can be observed to be migrating. The inmigration of single women in the younger ages and outmigration of single women in older ages cancel each other and as a result, a smaller proportion of single migrants can be observed. Divorced females seem to be considerably more mobile.

Summary and Conclusion:

There are two major objectives of this paper; to develop a methodology to estimate intercensal net migration by marital status, and to study the differential net migration by marital status. Here census survival ratio (forward) method has been used in developing a model to estimate females observed as census 1950 to year 1960 by different marital statuses. The estimated figure for each marital status for each province is then deducted from the observed females of the same marital statuses at the census 1960 to get an estimate of net migration by marital status. An

independent estimate of net migration for the total female population during 1950-60

using the forward survival ratio method tallies exactly with the total of the estimated net migrants for each marital status.

This methodology estimates the females aged 15 and over moving from one

province to another by changing their marital statuses during the decade. It is well known fact that this method does not actually indicate the place of origin or des tination of the migrants, but it does present the net balance of outmigrants and in

migrants for a particular geographic region. In the present context Panama seems to be the only province which experiences substantial net inmigration although Bocas del Toro has also attracted a few immigrants. Single females seem to be showing out

migration in early ages, and inmigration in the later ages. However, single migrants are less in number than that of married and widowed. Generally inmigrants are either

single or widowed. Net migration in all marital statuses is considerably higher in number in the early ages than in older ages. But the higher proportion of migration of married and widowed is, however, well marked.

Bibliography

Agarwala, S. ., "A Method for Estimating Decade Internal Migration in Cities from Indian Census Data", Indian Economic Review, IV, No. 1 (1958), 59-67.

- Age at Marriage in India, Kit ab Mahal, Publishers, Allahabad (1962).

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APPENDIX I Immigration, Outmigration and Net -Migration for Panama

by Province for the Period 1950-1960 (Female) Outmigration Outmigration

Immigration

Immigration Net Migration for the period

1960 1950 1950 1960 1960 1950 1950 - 1960 1950-1960

Bocas del Toro

Code Colon

Chiriqui

Darien Herrera

Las Santos

Panama Veraguas

2,804

13,130

6,580 9,416

3,064

6,591

16,932 7,528

13,761

2,195

8,174 3,837 5,946 1,820 3,995

6,558

6,258 7,835

609 4,956 2,743 3,470

1,244 2,596 8,374

1,270 5,906

1,150 3,480 7,730 2,470 590 2,191 1,200

56,114

2,861

616 2,398 5,738

1,443

307

1,727 1,057 31,321

2,011

534 1,082 1,992 1,027

283 464 143

24,793

850

-75

-3,874 -751 -2,443 -961

-2,132

-8,231

23,523 -5,056

Total

77,786 46,618

31,168

77,786

46,618

31,168

0

Source: Computed from Rep?blica de Panama,

Contraloria

General de la Rep?blica, Direcci?n de Estad?stica

y Ceuso - Ceusos Nacionales de 1960 Vol. VIH Migration Interna pp. 3-4 (on the basis of the method

of

estimation

given on p. XIX)



net internal migration by marital status for panama: females 1950-1960

Documents