TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1. Market Summary (as of Mar 6 , 2015)

NEPSE at close last week (Mar 4, 2015) 983.49

NEPSE high last week (Mar 4, 2015) 984.85

Weekly Change 4.22 (or 0.44%)

Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 23.06 crores

Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 92.25 crores

Immediate Resistance 1036.98

Immediate Support 972.17

RSI 59.10

MACD Line 6.34

Signal Line 8.47

2. Market Trend

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

3. RSI

RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways

movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market

is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. The RSI moved up slightly this week, still maintaining

within the neutral zone. On Sunday, the RSI had fallen to 54.85 levels. However, by the close of the

trading week, the RSI spiked up to 59.10 levels.

RSI (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

4. MACD

The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which

provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is

considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. The MACD line was

below the Signal line the week prior, and it continued the downward momentum by the end of this

week. Currently the MACD seems to be touching the signal line. If the MACD makes a crossover

above the signal line, it indicates a buy signal in the market.

MACD (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

5. Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two

trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,

which are represented by calculating standard deviation. The NEPSE line has moved up slightly this

week, touching the mid-band. The NEPSE appears to be moving with the mid-band by the last trading

day. The upper and the lower bands have still converged indicating decreasing volatility in the market.

Bollinger Bands (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

Overview:

NEPSE ended on a positive note this week as it closed higher by 2.07 points (or 0.21%) to end at

983.49 points. Nepse increased on the last day, closing higher than the week’s average of 981.36. The

average daily market volume increased this week to NRP 23.06 crores from NRP 21.65 crores the

week prior. The 50-day moving average is still increasing at a higher rate above the 200-day moving

average suggesting that the overall view of the market remains positive. The RSI increased slightly to

59.10 levels and still maintained within the neutral zone. The MACD line is moving close with the

signal line. However, if this line crosses above the signal line, this would indicate a buy trigger. The

Bollinger Bands indicate a decline in the market volatility as Nepse moved closer to the mid-band.

Nepse still has been able to maintain above its support level of 972.17 points during the past four

weeks. If Nepse falls below this support level with increasing volume, the next closest support level

stands at 938.41 points.

k|fljlws ljZn]if0f

ahf/ ;f/f+z -kmfNu'0f @!, @)&! ;Ddsf]_

aGb cª\s -kmfNu'0f @)_ (*#=$(

pRr cª\s - kmfNu'0f @)_ (*$=*%

;fKtflxs kl/jt{g $=@@ -)=$$k|ltzt_

b}lgs cf};t Jofkf/ ¿=@#=)^ s/f]8

s'n ;fKtflxs Jofkf/ ¿= (@=@% s/f]8

tTsflng 6]jf !)#^=(*

tTsflng k|lt/f]w (&@=!&

cf/P;cfO{ %(=!)

PdP;L8L ^=#$

l;Ugn nfO{g *=$&

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

l/n]l6j :6«]Gy OG8]S; -cf/P;cfO{_

cf/P;cfO{ k|fljlws ljZn]if0fsf] o:tf] cf}hf/ xf], h;nfO{ Pstlkm{ ?kdf rln/x]sf] ahf/df Jofkf/ /0fgLlt

agfpg a9L pkof]uL dflgG5 . To;}u/L, o;n] ahf/df vl/b / ljlqmsf] :ki6 ;+s]t b]vfpg] u5{ . of] ;ftf

cf/P;cfO{ s]xL dfly a9\of] h;sf] kmn:j?k ahf/ cem} Go"6«n cj:yfdf g} /xg uof] . ;ftfsf] z'?sf]

lbgdf %$=*% df tn em/]sf] cf/P;cfO{ ;ftfsf] cGTo lt/ dfly cfO{ %(=!) sf] l:ylt df aGb x'g uof] .

RSI (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

d'leª Pe/]h sGeh]{G; 8fOeh]{G; -PdP;L8L_

PdP;L8Ldf b'O{ cf]6f /]vf x'G5g\, h;df Pp6fn] ahf/sf] lbzf kl/jt{gsf] ;+s]t u5{ eg] csf]{n] ahf/sf]

k|j[lQ -6«]08_ b]vfpg] u5{ . olb PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ung /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 dfly sf6]df o;nfO{ ;sf/fTds

;+s]tsf ?kdf lnO{G5 / o;n] z]o/x? lsGg] ;+s]t ub{5 . PdP;L8L nfOg of] ;ftf l;Ugn nfOg eGbf

tn g} /xg uof] h;sf] kmn:j?k ahf/sf] ultlzntfdf lu/fj6 g} /xof] . xfnsf] l:yltdf PdP;L8L

nfO{g n] l;Ugn nfO{g 5'g vf]lh/x]sf] 5 . PdP;L8L nfO{g n] l;Ugn nfO{g nfO{ sf6]/ dflysf] tkm{ a9]df

o;n] ahf/df lsGg] xf]8afhLsf] ;+s]t ub{5 .

MACD (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

af]lnª\u/ Aof08

af]lnª\u/ Aof08 Ps k|fljlws ljZn]if0f ;"rs xf] h;df @!–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hsf ;fy b'O{ Aof08 -Pp6f

dfly_ / Pp6f tn_ x'G5g\ . lo Aof08x?n] cl:y/tfsf] ;+s]t ub{5g\, h'g :6fG88{ 8]leP;g u0fgf u/]/

kQf nufO{G5 . of] ;ftfsf] g]K;] s]xL a9\g uO{ dWo Aof08 5'g k'Uof] . ;ftfsf] cGTo lt/ g]K;]

kl/;"rs dWo Aof08 ;Fu ;Fu} clu a9L /x]sf] ;+s]t /xof] . dflyNnf] tyf tNnf] Aof08 of] ;ftf klg

glhs cfPsf] cj:yfn] ahf/sf] cl:y/tfdf xfn s]xL sdL cfPtf klg o;n] eljiodf cl:yt/tf

lgDtofpg ;Sg] ;+Defjgf pRr /x]sf] ;+s]t cem} ub{5 .

Bollinger Bands (Jan 02, 2014 – Mar 6, 2015)

;du{dfM

of] ;ftf g]K;] ;sf/fTds l:yltd} cGTo eof] h;sf] kmn:j?k ahf/df @=)& cª\sf] -)=@!Ü_ j\l4 eO{

(*#=$( df cGTo eof] . g]K;] kl/;"rs ;ftfsf] sf] clGtd lbgdf j[l4 x'g uof] . ahf/sf] cf};t

sf/f]af/ /sddf uPsf] ;ftf eGbf j[l4 x'g uO{ ?= @#=)^ /xg uof] . %)–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hn] @))–

lbg] d'leË Pe/]hnfO{ sf6L dfly /x]sf] cj:yf / ;f]df cfPsf] ultn] ahf/df cem} ;sf/fTds

;+s]tx? g} oyfjt /x]sf 5g\ . of] ;ftf cf/P;cfO{ %(=!) cª\sdf sfod /xg uof] h;n] ahf/ cem}

klg Go"6«n l:ylt g} sfod /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . PdP;L8L nfOg l;Ung nfO{g ;Fu ;Fu} rln/x]sf]

cj:yf /xof] / of] nfO{g l;Ugn nfO{gnfO{ sf6L dfly uPdf o;n] ahf/df lsGg] xf]8afhLsf] ;+s]t

ub{5 . af]lnª\u/ Aof08n] ahf/sf] cl:y/tfdf xfn s]xL sdL cfPtf klg o;n] eljiodf cl:yt/tf

lgDtofpg ;Sg] ;+Defjgf pRr /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . g]K;] kl/;"rs of] ;ftf cfkm\gf] tTsfnLg 6]jf

cªs (&@=!& eGbf dfly g} /xg uof] / of] kl/;"rs tTsfnLg 6]jf cªs eGbf tn emg{ uPdf csf]{

6]jf cªs (#*=$! /xg] 5 .