Minutes of the 2 nd CAS Management Group Meeting

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

24­26 September 2007

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. WELCOME ...................................................................................................................................1 2. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA......................................................................................................2 3. REPORT OF CAS PRESIDENT ....................................................................................................2 4. REVIEW OF ACTION IN LAST MINUTES .....................................................................................2 5. REPORT OF CHAIR ON OPAG­EPAC..........................................................................................3 6. WMO/IUGG ASSESSMENT OF AEROSOL EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION................................4 7. OPAG­WWRP...............................................................................................................................4 8. WORKING GROUP ON NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION (WGNE)...........................................5 9. WEATHER MODIFICATION..........................................................................................................6 10. CAS/CBS WIGOS GAW/GOS PILOT PROJECT ...........................................................................7 11. INTER­COMMISSION ACTIVITY ..................................................................................................8 12. INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR (IPY)..........................................................................................9 13. WMO QUALITY MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK ..........................................................................9 14. REVIEW OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR) PROGRAMME..............................................9 15. GEO..............................................................................................................................................10 16. AREP MANAGEMENT REPORT...................................................................................................10 17. CAS MG MEMBERSHIP ...............................................................................................................11 18. CAS­XV CONSTITUENT BODY MEETING ...................................................................................11 19. CAS MANAGEMENT GROUP MEETING 2008 .............................................................................11 SUMMARY OF DECISIONS ......................................................................................................................12

LIST OF ATTACHMENTS 1. Meeting Agenda ............................................................................................................................15 2. Progress Report on the WMO/IUGG Assessment Report...............................................................17 3. Report on World Weather Research Programme ..........................................................................19 4. Report on CAS/WCRP Working Group on Numerical Experimentation ..........................................37 5. Revised WMO Weather Modification Documents...........................................................................43

• WMO Statement on Weather Modification (including an Executive Summary)........................46 • WMO Guidelines for the Planning of Weather Modification Activities.......................................53

6. Proposal for GOS­GAW Pilot Project ............................................................................................55 7. List of possible CAS/CAeM Collaborations ....................................................................................57 8. AREP Management Report ...........................................................................................................59

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Minutes of the 2 nd CAS Management Group Meeting

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

24­26 September 2007

Management Group (present):

M. Béland (President), A. Frolov (Vice­President), A. Eliassen (Ex officio Pres.), O. Hov (Chair OPAG­EPAC), G. Brunet (Chair OPAG­WWRP), B. Ivancan­Picek, A. Mokssit, M. Miller, L. Ucellini, X. Feng (for R. Yu), J. Butler (for A. Thompson), L. Barrie (WMO Secretariat).

Management Group (regrets):

H. Kelder, A. Thompson and R. Yu.

Other participants:

A. Gusev (President CBS), D. Hinsman (WMO/WWW), T. Iversen (NMI), J. Bartnicki (NMI) (rapporteur), B. Hackett (NMI) representing JCOMM.

1. WELCOME The meeting was opened by Professor Anton Eliassen, Director of the Norwegian

Meteorological Institute (NMI), Permanent Representative of WMO and former CAS President. He proudly announced that NMI policy is to offer forecast products for free recognizing that it raises the visibility of a meteorological service in the public eye. The NMI is very popular as a Norwegian public institution.

Prof. Trond Iversen, senior research dynamicist of NMI, gave a scientific talk on the role of aerosols, clouds and their interactions in climate and weather models. He discussed the sensitivity of precipitation prediction by a regional climate model (50 km resolution) in Norway to boundary conditions of 8 different GCMs. He noted that to forecast high impact weather one needs ensemble prediction. NMI has been operating the Norwegian local area model ensemble prediction system (NORLAMEPS) at 20 km resolution in quasi­operational mode for over 2 years). This is a contribution to the TIGGE LAM. He noted the ongoing debate on the pros and cons of an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for all the European domain versus many smaller EPS experiments on European sub­domains. He concluded by pointing out to the Group that an important reason for adding aerosols and chemistry assimilation to NWP models is that it improves effectiveness of meteorological observations by satellites whose retrieval algorithms require information on atmospheric composition and turbidity.

Prof. O. Hov, Director of Research at NMI and chair of OPAG­EPAC, presented an overview of transboundary air pollution research with particular emphasis on the lessons in linking to user communities through the UN ECE­LRTAP convention that is supported by the WMO GAW programme. Great progress has been made in reducing sulphur pollution and sulphate aerosols in Europe since 1980 while NOx, volatile organic compounds, ammonia and suspended particulate pollution still pose major threats to human heath and ecosystems. He made the point that most of the sulphur and nitrogen oxides that Europe emits is deposited within the greater European domain of EMEP but that the small amount of pollution escaping can add to the hemispheric pollution affecting climate.

Prof. Hov noted that severe weather events for stagnating high pressure heat wave situations that involve elevated levels of ozone and particulate matter are different than the usual severe weather events involving high winds and precipitation yet often have tremendous societal

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impacts. A good example is the 2003 heat wave in Europe associated with 30000 deaths (10000 associated with elevated pollution levels). This event was extremely anomalous but climate change scenarios will be much more common (Schar et al Nature).

As CAS inter­commission representative for IPY, Prof. Hov emphasized that important research is taking place under the WWRP­THORPEX community on improving arctic forecasting. Studies of cyclogenesis leading to severe storms as very cold air leaves the northern ice and travels over warm open waters of the Arctic ocean have great relevance to adaptation to climate change since the northern oceans are becoming more and more attractive as shipping routes and more energy exploration activity occurs.

2. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA The agenda was accepted (Attachment 1).

3. REPORT OF CAS PRESIDENT President Michel Béland reported his activities in support of CAS since the last meeting in

September 2006. This included attending three back­to­back meetings in February 2007 of: (i) the Presidents’ of technical commissions; (ii) a special EC group on the WMO integrated observing system; (iii) an EC group discussion of a proposal on Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. Meetings (ii) and (iii) led to endorsement at Congress XV of initiatives on WIGOS and Disaster Risk Reduction and establishment of Executive Council working groups.

Dr Béland also invited AMG members to consult his report to Congress in May 2007, and the deck that he presented to the Assembly on that occasion (he requested that this deck be posted on the CAS Web Site as soon as possible): it contained a clear résumé of CAS activities, and his own work since the last AMG in Paris, in September 2006.

Dr Béland expressed concern about the role of CAS and other technical commissions in the WMO restructuring. A discussion ensued in which D/AREP and AD/WWW pointed out that the Presidents of the Technical Commissions have an important role to play during their annual meeting in early 2008 as well as at EC­LX in June 2008 and through the EC Working Group on WIGOS and on DRR.

A general discussion ensued including an intervention by Lou Ucellini regarding details of the CAS resources. L. Barrie, D/AREP, responded. Further discussions took place later (see Section 16 AREP Management Report). Dr Béland also noted the active involvement of two AMG members (Branka Ivancan­Picek and Abdalah Mokssit) in leading DRR and Weather Modification files respectively for the AMG. He expressed his appreciation for their help and work, and invited other AMG members who could contribute to other files to come forward.

Finally, he reported on his continuing work and efforts in working with the WCRP and ICSU leadership to increase collaborations and synergies with the CAS programmes. His work will be facilitated by a recent invitation from the WMO Secretary­General to become an ex­officio member of the WMO Executive Council Working Group on Climate and Related Water and Environment Matters.

Vice­President, A. Frolov noted the excellent presentation by the President of CAS at Cg­XV describing the accomplishments of the GAW and WWRP­THORPEX programme and suggested that more be done to involve developing countries in CAS.

4. REVIEW OF ACTIONS IN LAST MINUTES Action items identified at the last meeting were reviewed. It was concluded that all actions

were addressed or would be revisited during this meeting.

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5. REPORT OF CHAIR ON OPAG­EPAC Prof. Hov, chair of OPAG­EPAC, reported on progress made since September 2006 in

implementing the GAW programme. The highlight was the completion of the IGACO/GAW Strategic Plan for 2008­2015 (GAW Report No. 172) that was finalized and approved at the OPAG­ EPAC meeting in April 2007 in Geneva. It was presented to Cg­XV by the CAS President in May 2007. This detailed implementation plan for GAW incorporated the vision expressed in the Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations (IGACO) into an expanded three dimensional version of GAW that includes surface­based, in situ and remote sensing, aircraft and satellite observations together with modelling and links to users through products and services. GAW is the internationally recognized programme leading the implementation of IGACO.

In the ensuing discussion, A. Frolov noted that the principle difference in the World Weather Watch and the Global Atmosphere Watch is the wide variety of environmental data generated by a community that is not only in WMO but also in other national agencies and organizations.

L. Ucellini asked: “To avoid disconnection between this very important programme and the weather research community, how can CAS help implement IGACO/GAW?” He suggested that a good starting point might be the challenges slide presented by Prof. Hov. In response to this query the group prepared the following statement to be used in explaining to users the value in assisting GAW implementation.

International Support for GAW (draft by J. Butler) Environmental issues faced by society no longer stand alone, but are often global in nature and have potentially serious implications for international security, economic vigor, human health, energy development, and hazard prediction and mitigation. WMO’s Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Programme provides a global atmospheric chemistry measurement network of surface­based, balloon­borne, aircraft, satellite, and other remote sensing observations. The program, which depends almost entirely on voluntary contributions from ~70 member nations, has been in operation since 1989. It currently is the only international, global network for long­term, atmospheric measurements of greenhouse and ozone­depleting gases, aerosols, and reactive gases important to air quality and climate. Its products include greenhouse gas and ozone bulletins, calibrated data sets for model and satellite verification, and contributions to critical national and international assessments addressing climatically related issues (e.g., IPCC Reports, Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion). Its programs are major contributors to GEOSS and GCOS. The levels of accuracy, intercomparability, and quality assurance of measurement systems employed by GAW are determined and maintained by leading scientists from around the world working in a coordinated manner, guided and promoted by the WMO Commission on Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) leadership.

Because of this increasingly critical international need for reliable measurements related to climate, weather, and air quality, the WMO CAS strongly encourages partnering nations to maintain and, if possible, enhance support of those systems that constitute or could potentially become partners in the WMO Global Atmospheric Watch Programme. With continued strong and evolving support from its partners, this program will be able to stay abreast of future monitoring developments and modeling requirements. It will provide the strong backbone of coordinated, ground­based and in situ measurements essential to the success of satellite and other observational systems. In doing so, it provides the assurance necessary for global society in addressing vital economic, social, and environmental issues of today and the future.

D. Hinsman noted that WIGOS offers ways to assist GAW implementing the programme detailed in the GAW Strategic Plan for 2008­2015. The discussion concluded with Gilbert Brunet pointing out that verification of air quality forecasts is an important application of GAW observations and products.

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6. WMO/IUGG ASSESSMENT OF AEROSOL EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION L. Barrie reported on progress leading to the acceptance by Congress XV of the

WMO/IUGG Assessment Report as well as a resolution by the IUGG July 2007 (Attachment 2). He explained that the review, when published as a book, will be at a graduate school text book level and a resource document for researchers involved in understanding the effects of aerosol pollution on precipitation at ground level.

Decision 1: CAS­MG2 welcomed the acceptance by Cg­XV of the final report of the WMO/IUGG assessment group entitled “Aerosol Pollution Impact on Precipitation: A Scientific Review”. It extended its thanks to the co­editors Profs. Z. Levin and W. Cotton, G. Isaac (leader of the independent peer­review) and all authors and reviewers involved. It requested WMO to proceed to work with IUGG to publish the review as a book. (Action: D/AREP)

7. OPAG­WWRP G. Brunet presented in a detailed report the status of the implementation of a World

Weather Research Programme (Attachment 3) including the status of actions on decisions made at the JSC­WWRP meeting in April 2007 in Geneva. In particular, he pointed out the initiation of the development of a Strategic and Implementation Plan for WWRP. General discussion ensued resulting in the following decisions:

Decision 2: Consider including a WMO Air Quality Prediction System to the cross­cutting issues of Chapter 5 that links to the GAW GURME project. (Action: OPAG­Chairs, D/AREP)

Decision 3: Consider whether the symposium suggested for Nowcasting in Canada in 2009 by T. Keenan, Chair of the WWRP Nowcasting research working group, could be coordinated with IAMAS 2009 in Montreal (Action: Chair OPAG­EPAC, CAS Pres.).

Decision 4: CAS­MG2 recommends that the need for WIS requirements from TIGGE is addressed through appointment of an appropriate CAS expert to the Inter­commission task force on WIS. (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP)

Decision 5: CAS confirms that the name of the verification research group is the “Joint WWRP/WGNE Working Group on Forecast Verification Research”. It was also recommended that this group addresses issues related to air quality verification.

Decision 6: CAS endorses the WCRP/WWRP “Climate and Weather Modelling Summit” hosted by ECMWF from 6­9 May 2008 with Chair OPAG­WWRP and Chair WGNE on the organizing committee.

Decision 7: Noting that the SERA WG has not been very active, CAS­MG2 requests that a solution is found. (Action: Chair OPAG­WWRP, WMO Secretariat)

Decision 8: CAS strongly recommends that the WMO Secretariat, in its restructuring, addresses the gap that exists in the research component of the WMO hydrology and water resource programme. In particular, it requests CAS, CBS & CHy President and corresponding directors to develop a plan. (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP)

Decision 9: CAS­MG2 supports the “3rd International WWRP­THORPEX Science Symposium in 2009”, and requests the THORPEX ICSC to work with the WMO Secretariat (D/WWRP) to finalize the date and venue and to include WWRP­THORPEX IPY activities in a session. This is the link to the TIGGE user workshop Action 8 in the ICSC report.

Decision 10: CAS decides to rename the Joint Scientific Steering Committee (JSSC) of OPAG EPAC to Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) of OPAG­EPAC in order to be consistent with the JSC of OPAG­WWRP.

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Decision 11: Following the review of actions in the THORPEX ICSC report, CAS­MG2 notes that Actions 3 (D. Burridge) 10 & 11 (M. Béland) still need to be addressed.

L. Ucellini presented a summary of the status of TIGGE from the US NCAR and NOAA perspective. As of mid­September 2007, data from CMC, KMA, CPTEC, Météo­France were not available at the NCAR archive centre.

Decision 12: Contact ECMWF to determine the status of their data. Are these data sets being provided to the archive centre and if not, when will they be submitted to the TIGGE archives? (Action: D/AREP, L. Ucellini as CAS TIGGE representative, P. Bougeault).

8. WORKING GROUP ON NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION (WGNE) M. Miller, chair of WGNE, gave a scientific overview of the current state of weather and

climate modelling and the status of WGNE activities (Attachment 4). Highlights of the presentation are:

i. Comparative skill for precipitation, potential vorticity and 500 hPa heights is 1­2, 5 and 7 days , respectively;

ii. Five major centres are within a year or two of running global weather forecast models at a grid length of 15 to 20 km.;

iii. The Earth simulator in Japan has run global 3.5 km and some large domain 1 km simulations;

iv. Starting to see tropical cyclone genesis which says that key processes driving TCs are actually being covered;

v. There is a need for metrics for climate models; vi. TC position error: skill of 4­day forecast is equal to that of 2­day forecast 15 years ago; vii. TC intensity forecasts: models with highest resolution and time steps are most accurate; viii. There is skill for seasonal forecasts of tropical storm frequency. EUROSIP multi­model

system dynamical based predictive systems are well ahead of empirical based ones; and

ix. There is a need to match major increases in computing power with manpower. However modelling research is not attractive to young scientists in a “publish or perish” world.

There was a very successful Workshop on Systematic Errors in February 2007 in San Francisco during which several important modelling issues were raised, including the balance between complexity versus basic physical realism in models and the fact that several of the IPCC AR4 climate models do not have a realistic El Nino.

The WCRP/WWRP co­sponsored WGNE meeting will take place in Shanghai in October 2007. Topics to be discussed include: experience with convection permitting models, land data assimilation, YOTC, forecasting MJO and priorities in physical parameterization development for CAS and WCRP.

In the ensuing discussion the following decisions were taken:

Decision 13: CAS­MG2 recommends for confirmation by WCRP that the “CAS/JSC WGNE” is renamed “CAS/WCRP WGNE”. (Action: D/AREP, D/WCRP)

Both WGNE and JCOMM (B. Hackett document 5.3) are interested in exploring appropriate mechanisms for collaborating on atmosphere­ocean coupled modelling issues. Given the increasing importance of ocean simulation in climate and weather prediction and real­time ocean forecasts, questions were raised as to how to review the ocean modelling issues within CAS. Two possible options are (i) should WGNE be tasked to cover the ocean modelling issues and verification, or (ii) should an ocean WGNE be established?

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Decision 14: CAS­MG2 should confer with co­presidents of JCOMM to map out the pros and cons of different options. (Action: CAS Pres.)

9. WEATHER MODIFICATION

9.1 Expert Team on Weather Modification Research (ET­WM) Activities CAS­MG2 was presented with a report written by the Chair of the Expert Team,

D. Terblanche. A discussion was led by the management group member A. Mokssit. Since the formation of the ET on Weather Modification Research, preparations for the 9th Scientific Conference on Weather Modification (Antalya, Turkey, 22­25 October 2007) has been one of two major foci of activities. This Conference will have a different format than previous conferences. Capacity building in the field of weather modification was identified as a need by several member countries and therefore the last day of the conference will take the form of a discussion forum on "Technical Underpinning and Key Issues on Weather Modification Research" which will be led by a number of international experts. The Conference programme will concentrate on the following subjects: research insights gained by weather modification; new observation methods in weather modification research; cloud physics processes research and weather modification; modelling studies; scientific evaluation of weather modification activities; and research requirements in performing weather modification.

The second major focus of the ET was the revision of the “WMO Statement on Weather Modification (including an Executive Summary)” and the “WMO Guidelines for the Planning of Weather Modification Activities” according to the following steps agreed upon by CAS­MG1 (September 2006):

i. By letter, the President of CAS assisted by the WMO Secretariat, thanked the Members of the previous Working Group on Cloud Physics, Chemistry and Weather Modification chaired by J.P. Chalon for their excellent work, informed them of the restructuring of CAS that took place at CAS­XIV (February 2006) and assured them that their expert contribution was greatly appreciated and welcome in the future.

ii. Three experts established by CAS independently reviewed the documents and each provided written comments to CAS through AREP.

iii. The new Expert Team on WM (which includes the Chair of the former group, J.P. Chalon) responded to the independent reviews and submitted revised documents to CAS through AREP.

iv. The final draft was submitted to CAS­MG2 (September 2007).

An introduction of the revised documents was made by A. Mokssitt and discussion ensued.

Decision 15: The CAS­MG2 approved the “WMO Statement on Weather Modification (including an Executive Summary)” and the “WMO Guidelines for the Planning of Weather Modification Activities” with no content changes but with slight editorial changes (see Attachment 5). The only change was to replace the second bulleted point under Precipitation Enhancement in the Executive Summary with a more explicit text copied from the Statement (paragraph 1 under the section “Orographic mixed­phase cloud systems”) and to correct an error in the last sentence of paragraph 1 of the Guidelines regarding the approval process that was outdated. This acceptance and the slight editorial change will be communicated to the Members of the ET and the review team (Action D/AREP). CAS­MG2 agreed that the documents can now be posted on the web by the WMO Secretariat and made available for discussion at the 9th Scientific Conference on Weather Modification (Action: D/AREP) and that the completion of these revisions can be announced in the President’s report to EC­LX June 2008. (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP)

In addition to the two major activities above, there was a need to respond to the increase in interest by many WMO Member countries as water, weather and climate issues continue to exert pressure on sustainable development. The ET­WM was called upon and was actively involved in several of these activities including: a BBC documentary in weather modification with specific

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emphasis on rainfall enhancement in which WMO’s views were expressed; a workshop by the Japanese Meteorological Research Institute early in 2007; a workshop in Sydney, Australia in May 2007, and several radio and other interviews related to the subject.

9.2 Establishment of the WMO Trust Fund on Weather Modification CAS­MG2 noted that Cg­XV recommended the establishment of a trust fund for support of

the quadrennial WMO Scientific Conference on Weather Modification and activities of the WMO Expert Team on Weather Modification. The Trust Fund should support training and guidelines for sound scientific practices in weather modification and operations. Cg­XIV asked Members and other parties involved in weather modification to contribute to the trust fund. The terms of reference were presented by A. Mokssit and D/AREP.

Decision 16: CAS­MG2 approved the proposed terms of reference of the “WMO Weather Modification Research Trust Fund” having the purpose of:

i. Encouraging research on weather modification, and provide guidance on available scientific knowledge about weather modification.

ii. Assisting Member countries that request advice in practicing sound weather modification research.

iii. Supporting the organization of the quadrennial WMO Scientific Conference on Weather Modification, encouraging especially participation of scientists from developing countries and scientists new in weather modification research.

iv. Supporting activities of the WMO Expert Team on Weather Modification (Expert Team Terms of Reference defined in CAS­XIV).

It asked for completion of the terms of reference of the fund proposed including amendments to the administrative part of the proposed Trust Fund (document 4.4.2) to specify the role of the Expert Team on Weather Modification. (Action: WMO Secretariat, A. Mokssit; Chair Expert Team on WM)

Discussion ensued on the need for a strategic plan for weather modification research. If donors are to be attracted to contribute to the WMO Trust Fund on Weather Modification Research, such a plan is needed.

Decision 17: CAS­MG2 recommended that at the 9th Scientific Conference on Weather Modification, the recommendations for future research developed in the Forum on the last day of the Conference are published in the Proceedings. It tasked the ET­WM to develop a CAS implementation plan for Weather Modification Research that can be presented to donors to the Trust Fund. (Action: Chair ET­WM, A. Mokssit)

10. CAS/CBS WIGOS GAW/GOS PILOT PROJECT

CBS/CAS, WIGOS GOS/GAW Pilot Project, WMO Information System CAS­MG2 considered a joint GOS­GAW pilot project to accelerate the implementation of

WIGOS/WIS (Attachment 6). D. Hinsman reported that a newly revised report for WIGOS is available for distribution and that he will distribute it.

In considering a mechanism towards close collaboration, mandated by the Fifteenth WMO Congress, between CAS and CBS in the areas of integrated observation systems, a proposal by the CBS President to hold a joint meeting of CAS and CBS Management Groups was discussed and accepted by the CAS Management Group. A. Gusev, President of CBS, supported the idea in general but drew to the group’s attention some concerns at CBS­MG in July 2007. He asked what does “integration” refer to; “integration of data, or management or whole systems?” One should be very careful to make sure that a pilot project addressed an important gap and did not create extra redundant activity. The proposal was discussed.

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As a first step, it was agreed to develop Terms of Reference for an “ad hoc CAS/CBS Experts Group on WIGOS” as described below. The CAS Management Group and CBS President agreed that the plan was a suitable response to the request from Cg­XV to implement WIGOS. Thus, it agreed to establish an “ad­hoc CBS & CAS Experts Group on WIGOS” to develop a project implementation plan as outlined in Annex I with an associated timetable. In response to 3(i) of the proposal, it was agreed that the Terms of Reference of the Group are:

(a) Produce a Joint CAS/CBS GAW­GOS Project Plan for review by both MGs as a matter of urgency. The Project Plan will also be available to the EC WG on WIGO/WIS whose first meeting is tentatively planned for December 2007. The Project Plan should support the high level WIGOS/WIS goal to establish a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of WMO observing systems with ensured access to its component observing systems' data and products through interoperable arrangements.

(b) Following approval by the respective Management Groups, the Joint CAS/CBS GAW­ GOS Expert Group will work through CAS and CBS to implement the Plan during two years (2007­2008) to enhance delivery of chemical composition data for assimilation by numerical weather prediction models and the delivery of pre­operational products to a user community.

(c) Proposed Members of the Experts Group are: i. CBS OPAG­IOS Chair; ii. CBS ET­EGOS Chair; iii. CBS Co­chair of OPAG­ISS (Dr Steve Foreman); iv. CAS Chair OPAG­EPAC; v. CAS Chair of GAW Expert Team on NRT­CDD; and vi. CAS Chair of Expert Team on World Data Centres.

Decision 18: CAS­MG2 approved the WIGOS GAW/GOS Pilot Project proposal for development of a pilot project as described in Attachment 6 with changes recommended to have the ad hoc group “assist CAS and CBS in implementing” but taking into account concerns of CBS MG expressed in the minutes including concern that costs are minimized. (Action: D/AREP, AD/WWW et al).

Decision 19: CAS­MG2 resolved to appoint a representative to the inter­commission group on WIS. (Action: D/AREP)

11. INTER­COMMISSION ACTIVITY

Climatology The group welcomed the report by the President of the Commission for Climatology and

noted the plans for the World Climate Conference, 12­16 October 2007. It noted that due to the theme of the conference being partly on “seasonal prediction” and considering the increasing skill of numerical weather prediction models on this time scale, there needs to be a link at this conference to science and products delivered by the WWRP­THORPEX community.

Decision 20: Ensure through communication with WMO management that appropriate scientific expertise from the numerical weather prediction community is represented in the planning and sessions of WCC­3. (Action: D/AREP; CAS Pres.)

Aviation The CAS­MG2 welcomed the constructive suggestions for collaboration with CAS by the

Commission for Aviation Meteorology to address critical atmospheric science issues.

Decision 21: CAS­MG2 recommends that CAeM increase the focus on the research into the global pollution effect of aircraft traffic. International aircraft emissions contribute to upper troposphere ozone formation, cirrus formation and to the water vapour in the lower stratosphere.

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Due to growth in international traffic, a more concentrated effort is needed on how to reduce emissions and R&D is a clue to reducing in a cost effective way.

Decision 22: To address the suggestions for collaboration by the President of CAeM (Attachment 7). (Action: Chair OPAGs EPAC and WWRP Oystein and Gilbert)

12. INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR (IPY) CAS noted, with thanks, the document submitted. The CAS President emphasized that the

IPY legacy is important. In this regard, O. Hov pointed out the importance of ensuring that top­ down international coordination links to national bottom­up effort and a level where the legacy of IPY can be strengthened. It was pointed out that the Sustainable Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) of IPY is hosting several workshops in Stockholm (November 2007), Edmonton (March 2008) and in Helsinki (October 2008).

Decision 23: CAS President and Co­chair of IPY JC, commented that the IPY JC is too optimistic, that international coordination related to legacy will happen by itself at the next IPY JC meeting in Quebec.

13. WMO QUALITY MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK D/WWW presented the document on QMF that resulted from a successful effort by an inter­

commission team including CAS representative, Volker Mohnen, that resulted in approval at Cg­XV.

Decision 24: Recognizing the need for updating the GAW technical regulations and for a guide on GAW as a mandatory publication, CAS­MG2 endorsed an effort to plan and implement the production of such documents while minimizing the impact on resources and optimizes the impact on filling gaps in the global atmospheric chemistry network. (Action: D/AREP & AD/WWW)

14. REVIEW OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR) PROGRAMME CAS­MG2 reviewed the activities related to the WMO DRR Programme in support of CAS

objectives. A thorough report from B. Ivancan­Picek was welcomed. It stressed the need for closer coordination with the WMO DRR Programme Office and for stimulation of research on the composition of the atmosphere and weather forecasting, focusing on extreme weather events and socio­economic impacts. CAS­MG2 acknowledged the importance of DRR cross­cutting projects but expressed the need for enhanced coordination for identification, planning, prioritisation and implementation of projects through TCs, RAs and other Programmes.

CAS­MG2 welcomed the development of an 'open process' for reviewing and selecting new DRR projects proposed by the Secretariat DRR Steering Committee of Directors led by AREP.

It was announced that CMA and local funding are striving to finalize the AREP­led Shanghai Multihazard Early Warning System MHEWS.

Decision 25: It was requested that the Shanghai Multihazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) activities are presented to the WGNE group meeting in October 2007 in Shanghai. (Action: D/AREP, Chair WGNE, CMA representative)

The President mentioned a new research initiative led by G. McBean in Canada on Natural and Human­Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters that has the potential to increase the visibility and relevance of WWRP­THORPEX to society through disaster risk reduction and suggested that WMO participate. It was noted that a meeting on this between the WMO Deputy Secretary General, Thomas Roswall of ICSU and Gordon McBean took place on 12 September 2007 in Geneva. The President also pointed out that a meeting will take place on this programme on 29 October 2007 in Paris at ICSU and that this is an important opportunity for WMO to enhance

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the involvement of the research community involved in risk reduction with the numerical forecast research and operations community through the CAS programme.

Decision 26: CAS­MG2 noted the important research opportunity for WMO programmes at the 29 October meeting at ICSU on Natural and Human­Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters and recommends that WMO research is represented.

15. GEO The WMO GEO activities were reviewed by the GEO focal point, D. Hinsman. A. Gusev

noted that CBS is concerned about the GEO branding of the WMO member process. A. Gusev, a member of Russia’s national GEO committee, noted that GEONETCAST is an accomplishment and that the best role of GEO is advocate. The role of GEO needs to be more clearly defined in the hierarchy of systems with credit being given to WMO programmes when credit is due. At the autumn 2007 GEO Summit, the report on progress at GEO is led by D. Grimes of Canada who happens to be the PR of Canada with WMO. CAS­MG2 members offered their national perspective on GEOSS. The net consensus was that GEOSS has lost a very good opportunity for linking Earth observations to end users mainly because of the failure to link the high level national representatives to GEO with the national programme leaders and programme funding.

16. AREP MANAGEMENT REPORT L. Barrie, Director of AREP, presented a document (Attachment 8) summarizing the state of

staffing, accomplishments, budget constraints for 2004­2007 and what Cg­XV approved for AREP in 2008­2010. A detailed account of the staff numbers and type was included. It was emphasized that under the restructuring of WMO taking place in September to December 2007 and implementation of results based management there was great uncertainty regarding the actual budget available to implement the GAW and WWRP programme in 2008­2009. Discussion ensued largely touching on the large fraction of the budget used for staff versus that for non­salary activities that AREP, acting as a Secretariat for GAW and WWRP, is expected to do.

A discussion ensued on the level of involvement of CAS MG in WMO’s resourcing of AREP and WMO’s restructuring. The consensus of the group was summarized by O. Hov, that it is important for CAS MG to have sufficient information to know how the Secretariat's budget is spent in order to advise on the balance between salary costs and direct expenses on the different parts of the programme. He noted that the main task of CAS MG is to review and develop the scientific side of the AREP programme, and to act to mobilize national and international resources in support of the implementation of the programme. The CAS MG meets infrequently and it is not meaningful for the committee to take on a detailed advisory role on how internal WMO funds are spent. The President of CAS can, however, act in his capacity to support the AREP director and staff in the internal budget process in WMO.

Dr Béland made the point that in order for the CAS Management Group to be truly effective in providing useful advice on the conduct and delivery of CAS Programmes to the President, it also needed to be provided with an up­to­date and complete financial picture of the Commission’s business, including the status of the different trust funds. Recognizing that the needs of the programs significantly exceed the resources provided to CAS, strategic choices and decisions need to be made, and he felt it was important for the AMG to be a party to these discussions and decisions: although the face to face meetings are sparse, teleconferencing and email offer much less expensive alternatives, and could be used as needed. Moreover, he felt that in order to be able to mobilize successfully national and international resources in support of the programmes, judicious use of the CAS funds had to be effected and this requires good information on whatever flexibility there is in the budget. That being said, too much detail sometimes confuses the issue, and there has to be a balance between the amount of information, and the time available for discussions and decisions on major aspects of the programme. He summarized the discussion by emphasizing that the following actions are important in order for CAS to do this.

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Decision 27: CAS­MG2 recommends that the President and the WMO Secretariat work together to involve the technical commission in the implementation of 2008­2012 activities so as to ensure an effective delivery of scientific programmes for WMO Members. (Action: CAS Pres., WMO Secretariat)

Decision 28: Provide to CAS­MG2, as soon as possible, the list of core meetings to be covered in planning the AREP supported programmes in the 2008 to 2009 period. (Action: D/AREP)

17. CAS MG MEMBERSHIP It was noted that there is still a gap in Membership for the Southern Hemispheric research

and on the WIS Inter­commission Committee.

Decision 29: Members were requested to forward suggestions for membership to the President. (Action: CAS Pres., members CAS MG)

Decision 30: Publish on the WMO AREP website the composition of the CAS MG, WGs, SAGs and ETs (Action: D/AREP)

18. CAS­XV CONSTITUENT BODY MEETING D/AREP pointed out that in the constituent body plan presented by the Secretariat at Cg­XV,

this meeting is planned for autumn 2009. One Member has expressed an interest in hosting it. Concern was expressed that there are many meetings held in the autumn and that the WMO Third Climate Conference will be taking place at that time. The group felt that this was a usual problem and that the decision should be left in the President and Secretariat’s hands. Expense of the meeting is an important factor since Cg­XV has set a zero­no growth budget for WMO for 2008­ 2011.

Decision 31: The Management Group will be notified in 2008 as soon as a decision is made on the location and time. (Action: CAS Pres.)

19. CAS MANAGEMENT GROUP MEETING 2008 Members were consulted and several suggestions made for the location and time of the

next meeting. There is the option of holding it in Geneva or a Member country. Several kind offers were made and will be explored. On the issue of holding a joint meeting with the CBS management group in 2008, members felt that the CBS MG meeting planned for July 2008 was too early. D/AREP informed the group that CAS representation at the CBS Constituent body would be important in autumn 2008 in Croatia.

Decision 32: Finalize the time and place of the next MG meeting before the end of 2007 and notify the management group (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP).

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SUMMARY OF DECISIONS

Decision 1: CAS­MG2 welcomed the acceptance by Cg­XV of the final report of the WMO/IUGG assessment group entitled “Aerosol Pollution Impact on Precipitation: A Scientific Review”. It extended its thanks to the co­editors Profs. Z. Levin and W. Cotton, G. Isaac (leader of the independent peer­review) and all authors and reviewers involved. It requested WMO to proceed to work with IUGG to publish the review as a book. (Action: D/AREP)

Decision 2: Consider including a WMO Air Quality Prediction System to the cross­cutting issues of Chapter 5 that links to the GAW GURME project. (Action: OPAG­Chairs, D/AREP)

Decision 3: Consider whether the symposium suggested for Nowcasting in Canada in 2009 by T. Keenan, Chair of the WWRP Nowcasting research working group, could be coordinated with IAMAS 2009 in Montreal (Action: Chair OPAG­EPAC, CAS Pres.).

Decision 4: CAS­MG2 recommends that the need for WIS requirements from TIGGE is addressed through appointment of an appropriate CAS expert to the Inter­commission task force on WIS. (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP)

Decision 5: CAS confirms that the name of the verification research group is the “Joint WWRP/WGNE Working Group on Forecast Verification Research”. It was also recommended that this group addresses issues related to air quality verification.

Decision 6: CAS endorses the WCRP/WWRP “Climate and Weather Modelling Summit” hosted by ECMWF from 6­9 May 2008 with Chair OPAG­WWRP and Chair WGNE on the organizing committee.

Decision 7: Noting that the SERA WG has not been very active, CAS­MG2 requests that a solution is found. (Action: Chair OPAG­WWRP, WMO Secretariat)

Decision 8: CAS strongly recommends that the WMO Secretariat, in its restructuring, addresses the gap that exists in the research component of the WMO hydrology and water resource programme. In particular, it requests CAS, CBS & CHy President and corresponding directors to develop a plan. (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP)

Decision 9: CAS­MG2 supports the “3rd International WWRP­THORPEX Science Symposium in 2009”, and requests the THORPEX ICSC to work with the WMO Secretariat (D/WWRP) to finalize the date and venue and to include WWRP­THORPEX IPY activities in a session. This is the link to the TIGGE user workshop Action 8 in the ICSC report.

Decision 10: CAS decides to rename the Joint Scientific Steering Committee (JSSC) of OPAG EPAC to Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) of OPAG­EPAC in order to be consistent with the JSC of OPAG­WWRP.

Decision 11: Following the review of actions in the THORPEX ICSC report, CAS­MG2 notes that Actions 3 (D. Burridge) 10 & 11 (M. Béland) still need to be addressed.

Decision 12: Contact ECMWF to determine the status of their data. Are these data sets being provided to the archive centre and if not, when will they be submitted to the TIGGE archives? (Action: D/AREP, L. Ucellini as CAS TIGGE representative, P. Bougeault)

Decision 13: CAS­MG2 recommends for confirmation by WCRP that the “CAS/JSC WGNE” is renamed “CAS/WCRP WGNE”. (Action: D/AREP, D/WCRP)

Decision 14: CAS­MG2 should confer with co­presidents of JCOMM to map out pros and cons of different options. (Action: CAS Pres.)

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Decision 15: The CAS­MG2 approved the “WMO Statement on Weather Modification (including an Executive Summary)” and the “WMO Guidelines for the Planning of Weather Modification Activities” with no content changes but with slight editorial changes (see Attachment 5). The only change was to replace the second bulleted point under Precipitation Enhancement in the Executive Summary with a more explicit text copied from the Statement (paragraph 1 under the section “Orographic mixed­phase cloud systems”) and to correct an error in the last sentence of paragraph 1 of the Guidelines regarding the approval process that was outdated. This acceptance and the slight editorial change will be communicated to the Members of the ET and the review team (Action D/AREP). CAS­MG2 agreed that the documents can now be posted on the web by the WMO Secretariat and made available for discussion at the 9th Scientific Conference on Weather Modification (Action D/AREP) and that the completion of these revisions can be announced in the President’s report to EC­LX June 2008. (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP)

Decision 16: CAS­MG2 approved the proposed terms of reference of the “WMO Weather Modification Research Trust Fund” having the purpose of:

i. Encouraging research on weather modification, and provide guidance on available scientific knowledge about weather modification.

ii. Assisting Member countries that request advice in practicing sound weather modification research.

iii. Supporting the organization of the quadrennial WMO Scientific Conference on Weather Modification, encouraging especially participation of scientists from developing countries and scientists new in weather modification research.

iv. Supporting activities of the WMO Expert Team on Weather Modification (Expert Team Terms of Reference defined in CAS­XIV).

It asked for completion of the terms of reference of the fund proposed including amendments to the administrative part of the proposed Trust Fund (document 4.4.2) to specify the role of the Expert Team on Weather Modification. (Action: WMO Secretariat, A. Mokssit; Chair Expert Team on WM)

Decision 17: CAS­MG2 recommended that at the 9th Scientific Conference on Weather Modification, the recommendations for future research developed in the Forum on the last day of the Conference are published in the Proceedings. It tasked the ET­WM to develop a CAS implementation plan for Weather Modification Research that can be presented to donors to the Trust Fund. (Action: Chair ET­WM, A. Mokssit)

Decision 18: CAS­MG2 approved the WIGOS GAW/GOS Pilot Project proposal for development of a pilot project as described in Attachment 6 with changes recommended to have the ad hoc group “assist CAS and CBS in implementing” but taking into account concerns of CBS MG expressed in the minutes including concern that costs are minimized. (Action: D/AREP, AD/WWW et al)

Decision 19: CAS­MG2 resolved to appoint a representative to the inter­commission group on WIS. (Action: D/AREP)

Decision 20: Ensure through communication with WMO management that appropriate scientific expertise from the numerical weather prediction community is represented in the planning and sessions of WCC­3. (Action: D/AREP; CAS Pres.)

Decision 21: CAS­MG2 recommends that CAeM increase the focus on the research into the global pollution effect of aircraft traffic. International aircraft emissions contribute to upper troposphere ozone formation, cirrus formation and to the water vapour in the lower stratosphere.

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Due to growth in international traffic, a more concentrated effort is needed on how to reduce emissions and R&D is a clue to reducing in a cost effective way.

Decision 22: To address the suggestions for collaboration by the President of CAeM (Attachment 7). (Action: Chair OPAGs EPAC and WWRP Oystein and Gilbert)

Decision 23: CAS President and Co­chair of IPY, commented that the IPY JC is too optimistic, that international coordination related to legacy will happen by itself at the next IPY JSC meeting in Quebec.

Decision 24: Recognizing the need for updating the GAW technical regulations and for a guide on GAW as a mandatory publication, CAS­MG2 endorsed an effort to plan and implement the production of such documents while minimizing the impact on resources and optimizes the impact on filling gaps in the global atmospheric chemistry network. (Action: D/AREP & AD/WWW)

Decision 25: It was requested that the Shanghai Multihazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) activities are presented to the WGNE group meeting in October 2007 in Shanghai. (Action: D/AREP, Chair WGNE, CMA representative)

Decision 26: CAS­MG2 noted the important research opportunity for WMO programmes at the 29 October meeting at ICSU on Natural and Human­Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters and recommends that WMO research is represented.

Decision 27: CAS­MG2 recommends that the President and the WMO Secretariat work together to involve the technical commission in the implementation of 2008­2012 activities so as to ensure an effective delivery of scientific programmes for WMO Members. (Action: CAS Pres., WMO Secretariat)

Decision 28: Provide to CAS­MG2, as soon as possible, the list of core meetings to be covered in planning the AREP supported programmes in the 2008 to 2009 period. (Action: D/AREP)

Decision 29: Members were requested to forward suggestions for membership to the President. (Action: CAS Pres., members CAS MG)

Decision 30: Publish on the WMO AREP website the composition of the CAS MG, WGs, SAGs and ETs (Action: D/AREP)

Decision 31: The Management Group will be notified in 2008 as soon as a decision on the location and time is made. (Action: CAS Pres.)

Decision 32: Finalize the time and place of the next MG meeting before the end of 2007 and notify the management group (Action: CAS Pres., D/AREP)

ATTACHMENT 1

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2 nd CAS Management Group Meeting

(Oslo, 24­26 September 2007)

Meeting Agenda

Opening of the session: 10:00 Meeting Room: Castellanus in CIENS, R&D department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Please come to the Front desk of the main building of met. no, Niels Henrik Abels vei 40, Blindern on the first day and you will be directed to the meeting room.

1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION

1.1 Opening remarks CAS President Member self­presentation Keynote Norwegian presentations:

(a) Anton Eliassen: "The role of a national weather service like the Norwegian Meteorological Institute no in a globalized world"

(b) Prof Trond Iversen: "Research and development efforts to improve NWP as climate and high impact weather change"

(c) tbd: “Research and forecasting activities in the Arctic region” (d) Øystein Hov: ”The reduction in transboundary air pollution in Europe.

Feedbacks to other environmental issues like climate change".

1.2 Adoption of the agenda 1.3 Working arrangements

2. REPORT BY CAS PRESIDENT

2.1 Michel Béland (and by CAS Vice­President) 2.2 Review of Actions in Last Minutes

3. OPAG­EPAC

3.1 Report of Chair JSSC OPAG­EPAC (confirm membership, progress made and future plans)

3.2 WMO/IUGG Assessment of Aerosol Pollution Effects on Precipitation

4. OPAG­WWRP

4.1 Report of Chair JSC OPAG­WWRP (approval of membership, progress made and future plans)

4.2 Report on THORPEX Outcome of ICSC­6 (Geneva, April 2007)

4.3 WGNE Report 4.4 Weather Modification Activities

4.4.1 Report of Chair Expert Team, including the WMO Statement and Guidelines of WM Research (follow­up from

4.4.2 Establishment of WMO WM Research Trust Fund

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5. WMO INTER­COMMISSION

5.1 WMO Technical Commissions CBS/CAS, WIGOS GOS/GAW Pilot Project, WMO Information System

5.2 CBS/CCl 5.3 Other Commissions (JCOMM, CAeM) 5.4 International Polar Year (IPY)

6. INTER­PROGRAMME ACTIVITIES

6.1 Quality Management Framework (QFM) 6.2 Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR) 6.3 Group on Earth Observations (GEOSS)

7. AREP PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT REPORT

8. ACTIONS AND TASKS OF CAS MANAGEMENT GROUP

8.1 Discussion of CAS MB membership and roles 8.2 CAS Session 2009 8.3 Next MG meeting

9. OTHER BUSINESS

10. DATE AND PLACE OF NEXT MEETING

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ATTACHMENT 2

Progress Report on the WMO/IUGG Assessment Report

(Submitted by L. Barrie, D/AREP)

This document provides the report on WMO/IUGG Science Assessment of Aerosol Effects on Precipitation on local, regional and global scales.

Scope Review the published peer­reviewed scientific literature summarizing current understanding and identifying gaps.

Milestones (i) May 2003 WMO Congress recommends the establishment of a group to address aerosols

effects including biomass burning on precipitation. (ii) July 2003 IUGG Congress after careful consideration of WMO recommendation

recommended an international programme of study and assessment of rain related effects of aerosols on precipitation

(iii) June 2004 the Executive Council of WMO confirms the establishment of an International Aerosol Precipitation Scientific Assessment Group by President of CAS led by Prof. P. Hobbs and an independent review group led by Dr George Isaac, President of the IUGG/IAMAS/ International Commission on Clouds and Precipitation (1996­2004).

(iv) July 2004 1st meeting at the International Symposium on Physics and Chemistry of Clouds, Bologna Italy

(v) July 2005 Prof Z. Levin replaced Prof. P. Hobbs as chair. Prof. W. Cotton co­chair. (vi) Nov 2005 WMO/IUGG sponsored workshop hosted by Meteorological Service of Canada (vii) June – September 06 Peer review conducted by Dr G. Isaac (viii) Nov 2006 WMO/IUGG sponsored workshop hosted by MeteoFrance (ix) February 2007 Completion of the Assessment (x) May 2007 Document distributed and report given by president of CAS to Cg­XV with the

following outcome:

“May 2007 Congress XV (Doc 3.3.1.7)Congress expressed satisfaction with the response of CAS to the request of Cg­XIV (Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress (WMO­No. 960) general summary, paragraph 3.3.5.4) and with the establishment of an ad­hoc group to address the effects of aerosol pollution, including biomass burning, on precipitation. It noted that CAS had designated AREP to lead a joint WMO effort with the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) that established the WMO/IUGG International Aerosol Precipitation Science Assessment Group and organized a peer­reviewed report entitled “Aerosol Pollution Impact on Precipitation: A Scientific Review”. It accepted the President’s recommendation supported by the IUGG representative that WMO and IUGG proceed to publish the report as a joint publication and consider for EC­LX possible actions resulting from the recommendations. Congress expressed its thanks to IUGG, co­ editors Professors Z. Levin and W. Cotton and leader of the peer­review Dr G. Isaac as well as to the many contributors and reviewers.”

• July 2007 IUGG Welcomes report and drafts the following resolution: ________________________________________________________

“Intensified Study of Aerosol Pollution Effects on Precipitation

The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Welcomes and Commends

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­­ the comprehensive and peer reviewed report “Aerosol Pollution Impact on Precipitation, A Scientific Review” that provides an in­depth study of the relationship between aerosol pollution and precipitation that was called for by the IUGG XXII General Assembly in Sapporo and the WMO Congress Cg­XIV in Geneva, and prepared by the International Aerosol­Precipitation Scientific Assessment Group (IAPSAG), which was composed of leading scientists from around the world, and

Considering ­­ aerosol pollution resulting from biomass and fossil­fuel burning, and wild fires can

significantly alter the formation and distribution of precipitation, ­­ the changes in precipitation that can occur, depending on the characteristics of aerosol

pollution and the geographic and meteorological situations, and ­­ the possible significant societal and economic impacts of changes and re­distribution in

precipitation, and

Noting ­­ the recommendations listed in the "Review" call for actions by international bodies,

individual governments and the scientific community at large,

Urges: ­­ the WMO to join with IUGG and form an Aerosol­Precipitation Project Group charged

with converting the recommendations of the Review into an international action plan, ­­ the WMO to join with IUGG in approaching the Food and Agricultural Organization

(FAO) and other international organizations and ask them to join the IUGG/WMO efforts and participate in the planning,

­­ IAMAS, IAHS and other IUGG Associations, as appropriate, to continue their efforts to improve understanding, with the goal of forming a basis for moderation of adverse effects, and

­­ the scientific community to study the direct impacts of aerosol pollution on precipitation and global and regional precipitation climate, with all its social and economic implications so that governments can consider appropriate actions,

Decides ­­ to appoint a special officer to lead the IUGG efforts in the context of the Aerosol­

Precipitation Project Group and to liaise with the WMO.” Dr John Turner, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET,UK, Email: J.Turner@bas.ac.uk ,Tel +44 (1223) 221485, Fax +44 (1223)221279 Web site http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/john.turner/

_________________________________________________________________

• August 2007 Document technically reviewed under WMO contract in preparation for finalization as a book entitled ““Aerosol Pollution Impact on Precipitation: A Scientific Review” to be jointly published by WMO and IUGG.

Plans • November 2007 Prof Zev Levin will visit WMO on sabbatical to complete the book. • Early 2008 WMO and IUGG will publish the book through an agreed publisher chosen mutually

after calls for proposals from publishers

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ATTACHMENT 3

Report on World Weather Research Programme

(Submitted by G. Brunet, chair of the OPAG­WWRP)

This document is a progress report on the ongoing activities of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) of the Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) on World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) since its 1 ST session in April 2007 (Geneva, Switzerland).

1. ROLE OF OPAG­WWRP IN SUPPORT OF CAS The fourteenth Session of the Commission on Atmospheric Sciences (CAS­XIV, Cape

Town, February 2006) recognized that weather research and prediction was evolving, with broad consideration of the understanding and prediction of environment variability, and increasing collaboration and integration of oceans in prediction systems and forecast applications. It noted the increasing complexity of the work of WWRP and the importance of developing and implementing a technical strategic plan to guide future work. Recognizing the need for a source of expert advice on relevant areas of WWRP during the next four years, CAS­XIV agreed that the establishment of the WWRP Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) and the integration of THORPEX with the other programme components is an effective way to organize the working structure, and enhance coordination between disciplines and other technical Commissions of WMO. The 58 th WMO Executive Council in June 2006 agreed with the report of CAS­XIV. The four challenges facing the JSC OPAG­WWRP are:

a) To provide the overall scientific guidance for the WWRP focusing on the reorganization of the weather research activities, simplifying the structure to reduce the costs without harming programme outputs;

b) To develop a strategic science and implementation plan for WWRP and a work programme aligned with the WMO Strategic Plan ;

c) To identify two or three initiatives where WWRP can work together with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and other WMO programmes.

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE FIRST SESSION OF THE JSC OPAG­WWRP The JSC OPAG­WWRP held its first meeting from 23 to 25 April 2007 at the WMO

Headquarters (Geneva, Switzerland).

Following the directive of CAS­XIV, the meeting reviewed recent activities of the various working groups of the programme and discussed the development of a strategic science and technical implementation plan for WWRP and a work programme aligned with the WMO Long­term plan.

The meeting organized by WMO’s Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme Department (AREP) and chaired by Dr Gilbert Brunet (Canada) was well­attended by members of the JSC, chairpersons of the working groups and expert teams of WWRP and leading atmospheric research experts. Participants were enthusiastic and committed to providing the overall scientific guidance for WWRP, in particular, and in furthering the work of the Commission of Atmospheric Sciences, in general.

A detailed report on the first session of the JSC OPAG­WWRP meeting is available on the WMO website and contains a summary of all the presentations made, decisions arrived at during the three day meeting, outline of the WWRP Strategic Plan (2008­2015) and timetable for its preparation. The CAS/AREP Programme Structure Schematic and revised structure of the new WWRP Tropical Meteorology Research activity are also given in the appendices.

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3. JSC OPAG­WWRP STRATEGIC AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN This section reports on the JSC OPAG­WWRP decisions 12, 13, 14 and 15.

The JSC agreed that the task team for coordinating the development of the SP will be composed of a small sub­group on the Strategic Plan Development composed of G. Brunet (Chair), D. McCulloch (Environment Canada, Executive Secretary), L. Barrie (D/AREP), Chief of AREP/WWRP Division (To be determined), S. Nickovic (Scientific Officer) and N. Lomarda (Senior Scientific Officer) and that the plan development and review include Chairs of the WWRP Working Groups and Expert Teams and other experts.

The procedure and timetable suggested by the Chair of JSC and D/AREP for developing the WWRP Strategic and Implementation Plan (SIP): 2008­2015 was accepted by the JSC­ WWRP.

The outline of the SIP is finalized, assigned leads have been chosen and the working assignments have been given. The JSC OPAG­WWRP SP is progressing with some delays, but it is anticipated to have a final version in 2008. We have received to date contributions from THORPEX, WGTMR and NWG.

4. PROGRESS ON WHITE PAPER: TOWARD A SEAMLESS PROCESS FOR THE PREDICTION OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE There are significant similarities in the societal benefits and the much of the science

underpinning both WWRP­THORPEX and WCRP. The science outcomes and the societal benefits will be enhanced significantly from strengthened collaboration between these programs. The Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) for the WCRP, the JSC for the WWRP and THORPEX International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) are keen to strengthen this collaboration and it has been agreed that it would be desirable for these communities to develop two "white papers". White paper 1 (WP1) would cover important general scientific/technical areas for collaboration between WWRP­ THORPEX and WCRP – as agreed by John Church (JSC Chair for the WCRP) and Dave Burridge (ICSC Chair). This WP1 first version was prepared by a joint WWRP­THORPEX/WCRP drafting team comprised of: Gilbert Brunet (Environment Canada), Randall Dole (NOAA), Brian Hoskins (Reading U.), George Kiladis (NOAA), Ben Kirtman (GMU/COLA), Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR), Rebecca E. Morss (NCAR), Saroja Polaravapu (Environment Canada), Mel Shapiro (NOAA), Julia Slingo (Reading U.), Istvan Szunyogh (Maryland U.) and Duane Waliser (JPL).

White paper 2 (aimed at the senior executive/political level) would cover longer term strategic developments and emphasise the potential high societal benefits from significant additional investment in a "state of the art" predictive capability for weather and climate. The WP1 was requested by the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Chair, Michel Béland, for an endorsement by participating countries at the next CAS meeting.

The first draft of WP1 was circulated to a wider scientific audience. It has received to date numerous feedbacks and additional contributions from the two research communities that will significantly help strengthening the discussion on data assimilation, surface processes and tropical meteorology issues. A judicious rewriting of the WPI is ongoing and will hopefully broaden and reinforce the support from the research communities. We anticipate to get other contributions until mid October at the latest. It is expected to have a final version for endorsement by the WWRP and WCRP JSCs in fall 2007.

5. UPDATE AND PROGRESS REPORT OF WORKING GROUPS

5.1 Progress and Future Plan of Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research The working group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR) set up two components of

tropical cyclone panel and monsoon panel after XIV session of WMO Commission of Atmospheric Sciences, Cape Town 16­24 February. 2006 instead of six components of WGTMR last session owing to limitation of funds. The topic of “the impact of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone

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Activities” is included in tropical cyclone panel. The activity progress in this report is taking place after CAS­XIV session.

Highlights

• International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction

The workshop was held in Guangzhou China from 26 to 30 March 2007. The meeting chair was Prof. Lianshou Chen. 60 participants including 9 lectures from 15 countries which are affected by tropical cyclone disaster attended the workshop. The workshop objectives were to provide training and experiences on new knowledge in recent tropical cyclone research advances, to apply some of the research results into operational tropical cyclone prediction in order to raise the capability of tropical cyclone forecast and warning, to be aware of the issues associated with early warning systems, societal impacts and disaster mitigation. The lectures of the workshop were organized including tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques, structure and intensity change forecast related to CBLAST, tropical cyclone rainfall, wind, storm surge, coastal flooding, geological hazard, tropical cyclone warning systems, societal impacts and disaster reduction. The workshop was evaluated by all of the formal trainees organized by WMO to assess how well this workshop was so as to improve future workshops. Three parts including course review, overall logistics, lecture instructors were put into evaluation.

• Working Group Meeting on Tropical Meteorology Research

The meeting of the WGTMR was held in Guangzhou as well from 22 to 24 March 2007 Chaired by Prof. Lianshou Chen. 17 participants attended the meeting. The objectives of the meeting were to restructure the working group of TMR, to discuss the strategies and objectives of the tropical meteorology research, to cooperate with other programs and to plan the future activities before CAS­XV session.

• The Six th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC­VI)

The workshop was held in San Jose, Costa Rica from 21­30 November 2006 co­chaired by Prof. Johnny Chan and Mr Chiuying Lam. 130 participants from the world attended the meeting. The objectives of the workshop were to bring researchers and forecasters together to share experiences, to plan the future directions, to transfer the new research achievements to operational community and to raise the forecasting capability. The workshop topics include all of the major areas of tropical cyclone sciences, such as TC landfall process, structure and structure change, formation and extratropical transition, motion, climate variability and seasonal prediction and disaster mitigation/ warning systems/ societal impacts etc. The workshop arranged tutorial sessions to introduce some new techniques and field experiments (CBLAST, RAINEX) to the participants. The workshop recommendations can be categorized as WMO directed, research community and operational centres.

• International Symposium on Winter MONEX

The symposium was held in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia from 4­7 April 2006 which was chaired by Prof. CP Chang. 100 participants from 20 countries attended the symposium. The objectives of the symposium were to review the findings and achievements since winter MONEX over Eastern and South Asia and South China Sea (SCS) as well as to develop the future scientific cooperation in Eastern Asian Monsoon. The symposium would help forecasters from relevant NMHSs raise capability on operational forecast.

• FDP Project­Early Warning System (EWS) for PAGASA (The Philippines)

This Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) is one of 4 recommendations from, and endorsed by the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Processes which was one

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of the WGTMR activities held in Macao 2005. This FDP project was proposed to the EWC­III in Bonn Germany in March 2006. Selected as one of 14 projects (out of 105 proposals), this project was given a “final grade of 5” (strongly agree), namely, a top rating of 5 by the organizers. But it has not been selected for funding by one of the donor organizations. Because a special opportunity exists during the tropical cyclone structure (TCS 08) field experiment to obtain the types of observations and test the advanced TC and hydrological models during 2008, a renewed effort will be initiated to obtain funding for this FDP.

• Contribution to WWRP Strategic Plan

Two panels of WGTMR had drafted and completed partial contents of section 3 (WWRP Research Issues) and whole contents of 4.4 (Tropical Meteorology Research) for WWRP Strategic Plan.

The partial contents for section 3 include: Tropical meteorology issues, tropical meteorology significance, tropical cyclone science needs, monsoon science needs, tropical meteorology linkage, tropical meteorology capacity needed etc. The contents of section 4.4 include: Scope, Research Goals and Objectives, WGTMR Terms of References, Research Activities (Tropical Cyclone Research, Monsoon Research Activities), Products, Services and Technology Transfer.

Future Plans of WGTMR

• Tropical cyclone Aspect

The WGTMR will continue the quadrennial IWTCs which is the keystone activity of tropical cyclone research component. The IWTC­VII will be organized in 2010 in a timely and effective manner.

The WGTMR will complete the updated compilation of the successor to the book of “Global Perspective on the Tropical Cyclones” in 2008 and the publication by WMO in 2009.

The WGTMR will prepare a new web­based Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting as recommended by IWTC­VI.

The International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Processes (IWTCLP) endorsed a field experiment in the western North Pacific to advance understanding and address requirements for improved forecasting on tropical cyclone structure and structure change. Funding from U.S. office of Naval Research has been assured for a tropical cyclone structure field experiment in the western North Pacific during 2008 (acronym TCS 08). This effort will be in conjunction with the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T­PARC) in 2008. A field experiment on extratropical transition in west North Pacific and its downstream impacts on North American were also recommended. It could be implemented in the T­PARC frame in that period.

The second session of IWTCLP and extratropical transition workshop could be held hopefully in 2008­2009 based on funding availability. Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) can be one of the topics for the former workshop.

A future direction in tropical cyclone forecasting will be in probabilistic forecasting. Research is required as to how to best utilize ensemble prediction system outputs to generate these probabilistic forecast products. The TIGGE System will be a useful source for research. Tropical cyclone panel will explore re­establishing the Limited Area Modeling Workshop around 2009.

The topic of impact of climate change on tropical cyclone activity/intensity has been addressed in two statements summarizing the present state of knowledge. This is an appropriate topic for the tropical cyclone panel of the WGTMR. The panel considers whether a meeting of the expert team on this topic should meet formally or conduct their deliberations via email, and

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coordinate this activity with the world climate research program as appropriate. On the other hand, it seems needed to produce a formal WMO report updating the status of this topic at least each two years and produce a report at each IWTC.

• Monsoon Research Activities

A major activity of the monsoon panel of the WGTMR continues the quadrennial International Workshop on Monsoon (IWM) series. The IWM­IV will take place in October 2008, and a corresponding publication on monsoon research will be completed in 2009.

The international training workshop on monsoon will be conducted in a lecture manner. The lecturers are invited monsoon experts and the trainees are NMHS forecasters. The purpose of the training workshop is to update the trainees’ scientific knowledge that are applicable to monsoon forecasting. The 8 th international training workshop on monsoon is expected to be held in fall of 2008.

TMR monsoon panel will facilitate cooperation and coordination among those existing field experiments which will advance understanding physical processes of monsoon severe weather such as heavy rainfall associated with Meiyu (Baiu/ Changma) front. The efforts should be directed at forming an alliance of field experiments which have existed in China and Japan. Some research projects on severe monsoon weather events can be cooperated with WCRP CLIVAR and GEWEX monsoon project.

The monsoon panel will serve as consultant to NMHSs in the monsoon regions to provide advices to improve the research and forecast of severe monsoon weather events. Visits, meetings, special topic workshops are the kind of channels providing advices/products to NMHSs affected by monsoon.

Workshops on numerical model research, data assimilation, QPE and QPF will be held in conjunction with tropical cyclone panel such as joint workshop on QPE and QPF for tropical cyclone and monsoon.

• Products, Services and Technology Transfer

Products, Services and technology transfer of the WGTMR include workshops, training courses, seminars, publications and demonstrations of research results from tropical cyclone and monsoon projects. WGTMR will facilitate the transfer of new technology and research results and advanced prediction guidance to the operational forecasting and warning centers. WGTMR will facilitate training activities such as the International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction, in which researchers will assist the forecasters from operational forecasting center on tropical cyclone forecasting techniques and experiences. On the other hand, roving seminar series also need to be conducted. WGTMR will propose to develop economic and social studies of the significant societal impacts due to tropical cyclones and severe monsoon weather events.

Successful impact programs and effective early warning systems should be introduced to NMHSs timely.

5.2 Summary of Working Group on Nowcasting Activities

Forecast Demonstration Project Activities

• Progress Beijing 2008 FDP

The first training workshop of B08FDP was held from 10 to 20 April 2007. An introduction of each system was focusing on major functions, basic operating principals, and products provided MAPLE/ARMOR nowcasting system was developed at McGill University in Montreal, Quebec,

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Canada has been accepted as a new member of B08FDP. Planning Meeting held in July, 2007 Beijing for 2007 Operations (July­August) 2007 Trials conducted July­August 2007 3 rd B08 FDP Review Workshop to be held Qingdao 27­29 September, 2007

• Vancouver 2010 FDP/RDP

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) is exploring the potential of a winter nowcasting FDP linked with the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Several meetings have been held so far, including an internal MSC scoping activity following information gathering exercise conducted at the WSN05 meeting in Toulouse, 2005. International interest was evident at the latter. The proposal is still very tentative.

Public Weather Services Nowcasting Link Activities

• Meeting of the Joint Nowcasting Applications and Services Steering Committee (JONAS) between PWSP­WWRP on Nowcasting Applications (Geneva, 18­20 April, 2007)

The interim JONASSC meet for the first time 18­20 April, 2007 in Geneva to consider the development of a joint PWSP­WWRP Nowcasting Applications implementation plan. Specific issues discussed included: Public Weather Services (PWS) Nowcasting Applications Framework

Components for PWS Nowcasting Service Delivery; Building on Existing Initiatives and Identifying New Opportunities; Terms of reference (TOR) for the JONAS; Long Term Plan for Activities including reporting responsibilities to CAS and CBS and role this SC in relation to WWRP NWG.

The JONAS will comprise: Nowcasting expert to be appointed by WWRP as Co­Chair; PWS/DPM expert to be appointed by PWSP as Co­Chair; CBS representative in WWRP Nowcasting Working Group; Forecast systems expert; PWS expert from developing countries; Advisors and experts, e.g. (potential) hosts of Open­test beds, to be invited as required, and WMO Secretariat representative.

A strategic plan is now under preparation and with target completion date of 30 October, 2007. Enhancing capability to assess economic and societal impact with the initiative remains a key challenge. The strong link with the WWRP NWG is included to avoid duplication and to enhance the overall effectiveness of both groups.

• WMO Radar Quality Control (QC) Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) Intercomparison Project

The first ad hoc Steering Committee, was hosted by DWD, Hohenpeissenberg, Germany, 18­19 January 2007. Following the ERAD meeting an ad­hoc group was assembled to consider the goals/objectives and scope/definition of a radar QC/QPE inter­comparison project. Principle stakeholders present at the meeting represented the WWRP NWG, CIMO ET on Remote Sensing, WMO/WCRP/GEWEX/GRP/Working Group on Precipitation Radar Networks, OPERA Hub and the former head of the CARPE DIEM project.

Minutes of the meeting are available through WMO. A draft project plan has subsequently been developed for consideration by WWRP, CIMO and GEWEX.

Development of NWG Strategic plan

Development of the NWG contribution to the WWRP Strategic Plan is well underway. The plan focuses on the use of workshops, symposium, a specific QPN quality control working group activity and FDPs to advance the science and application of nowcasting.

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NWG Capacity Building Activities

• Australia, Palm Cove Training Workshop 2007

The organisers of the 33 rd AMS Radar Meteorology Conference, WMO through WWRP, PWS and RA V supported by Gematronik Weather Radar Systems, the Bureau of Meteorology Australia with help from the American Meteorological Society hosted a radar meteorology and nowcasting training workshop from 1­4 August 2007 at the Novotel Palm Cove Resort near Cairns Australia. The workshop preceded the 33 rd Radar Meteorology Conference held from 5­10 August, 2007 in Cairns.

The objectives of the workshop were to provide basic knowledge of the underlying science of radar meteorology, promote the use of weather radars in nowcasting and service provision thus building future capacity within the RA V region of the WMO. The workshop provided mentorship in weather radar and nowcasting techniques within RA V to advance the WMO mission.

• Proposed Nowcasting and Very Short Range Weather Forecasting (WSN09) Symposium in Canada, Summer 2009

It is proposed to hold the next World Weather Research Program (WWRP) Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Weather Forecasting (WSN09) in Canada. The aim of the Symposium will be to examine the capabilities, opportunities and requirements for improved forecasts in the 0­6 hour nowcasting timeframe. Emphasis will be placed on systems that forecast all types of high impact weather. At the last Symposium in Toulouse, mainly summer convective hazards (heavy rain, hail, lightning, high winds) were considered. This Symposium will attempt to broaden the scope to consider hazards that occur in other seasons, such as snowstorms, blizzards, fog, and freezing precipitation. Papers that cover short term forecasting systems for drainage basins, cities, airports, forest fire situations, roads, etc, will be solicited. Articles that cover the use of new high resolution numerical forecast models (1­5 km scales) and special instrumentation networks will also be encouraged.

The Symposium can be held during the summer or early fall of 2009 in either Vancouver or Toronto, Canada. Both of these locations have international airports and easy access from many parts of the world. Both have excellent accommodation available for such a Symposium. Vancouver allows quick access from both North American and Pacific nation participants. Toronto is easily accessible from Europe as well as many locations in North America. It is possible that a WWRP RDP will be developed in association with the Vancouver 2010 Olympics. In addition, plans are underway for a significant Nowcasting research component as part of the weather forecasting for Vancouver 2010. In Toronto, a Canadian Airport Nowcasting Project (CAN­Now) is underway and should be producing routine products by the summer of 2009. So both locations will offer opportunities to discuss local research work on Nowcasting.

Paul Joe and George Isaac have agreed to chair the Local Arrangements and Scientific Program Committees. Environment Canada will act as the official host. Other scientific bodies, besides WMO, will be solicited for their support.

5.3 Summary of THORPEX Activities

The CAS International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) for THORPEX met in the WMO Headquarters in Geneva, 25 to 27 April 2007. The ICSC proceeded with the work assigned by the CAS, the WMO Executive Council and the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress. This included reviews of the progress in planning and further development of THORPEX on the global and regional level, financial and administrative matters related to THORPEX management, the International Programme Office (IPO) and Trust Fund. A complete ICSC report is available on the WMO website.

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• Update on Current and Planned Activities of the Predictability and Dynamical Processes (PDP) Working Group

The PDP WG has established 8 Interest Groups (IGs) to engage the community in a discussion on 8 relevant PDP topics. These topics are (1) The role of Rossby wave dynamics in predictability (2) Organized tropical convection (e.g., MJO) and weather prediction on sub­seasonal time scales (3) Predictability of tropical cyclones and their extratropical transition (4) The impact of ET on the downstream midlatitude predictability (5) Theoretical aspects of ensemble prediction (6) Atmospheric blocking, low­frequency variability and their role in predictability (7) The impact of moist processes on dynamical processes and predictability in the extratropics (8) AMMA and aspects of tropical­extratropical interactions.

PDP WG is currently in the process of preparing a summary paper based on the reports of the IG leaders for BAMS. The IG leaders were asked to summarize the most important development in their field over the last 5 years and the most relevant research issue based on the discussion in their respective groups. The PDP WG submitted a proposal for a paper to the chief editor of BAMS on August 22 2007. The PDP WG has not received a response, yet, but we assume that the response will be positive. The PDP WG hopes to have a draft approved by all co­ authors (two co­chairs of the PDP WG and the two co­leaders of each IG) by mid­November. The PDP WG is planning to send, then, the manuscript to the members of the former SAB for review. We will ask them to return their comments before the holidays.

The PDP WG is also planning to prepare a longer WMO publication based on the reports of the IG leaders by early 2008. The PDP WG hopes that these two documents will help revitalize the IGs and thereby the general discussion in the PDP community.

As for our plans for the near future, Heini Wernli will present a solicited presentation on the activities of our group at the European Meteorological Society meeting in Madrid in October and Istvan Szunyogh will participate at the "Year of Tropical Convection" planning meeting in Crystal City, VA, on November 13­14 and at the T­PARC planning meeting in Oahu, Hawaii, in December. Also, members of the PDP WG would like to actively contribute to the development of T­NAWDEX, a field experiment in the North Atlantic/European/North African region that has been provisionally scheduled for 2010 or 2011 by the European regional committee.

In 2009 the PDP WG highest priority will be the evaluation of the results of the 2008/2009 field programs and the organization of a PDP summer school. The PDP WG hopes the IGs of the PDP WG will be the preferred forum for many of our colleagues to discuss result of T­PARC, YOTC, and the International Polar Year (IPY). The summer school was originally planned for 2008, but because of the timing of the field programs, 2009 seems to be a more appropriate date. Also, the PDP WG needs to raise the funding for this activity, which requires time.

The PDP WG longer term goal is to maintain the IGs, as it is believed that they provide the most efficient vehicle to engage the community in THORPEX. We hope that the two documents the PDP WG are preparing, and especially the WMO report, will form the basis of a revised THORPEX International Science Plan. Major scientific progress can be expected from the evaluation of results from T­PARC, and the planning and future evaluation of T­NAWDEX. In addition, we also hope to develop a meaningful collaboration with the other WGs, as we view the current lack of such collaboration as a major weakness of the recent THORPEX efforts.

• Overview of the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T­PARC) as a Cross­ cutting Activity for the WWRP Strategic Plan (D. Parsons, T. Nakazawa, and R. Elsberry)

The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T­PARC) is a cross­cutting activity within the WWRP that includes a focus on the research goals of THORPEX and the Tropical Meteorological programs. The experiment consists of Tropical Cyclones, Extratropical Transition (ET), and Winter Phases. The Tropical Cyclone and Winter Phase will take place from 1 August

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2008 through 8 October 2008, while the Winter Phase will take place in January­March 2009. T­ PARC research is inherently multi­scale with measurements strategies motivated by the societal need to improve both shorter range (1­5 day) forecast skill for high impact weather events that effect the Northwest Pacific and East Asian regions and medium range (3­7 days) forecast skill for “downstream” locations such as the Arctic, North America, Europe and North Africa. Investigators from the research and operational communities within Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, and the United States are leading the T­PARC effort.

The goals of T­PARC include advancing knowledge and improving prediction of:

(i) The genesis, track, landfall, and evolution of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific including rapid intensification and other changes in storm structure;

(ii) The evolution and predictability of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones and their associated precipitation field;

(iii) Winter cyclonic storms whose dynamical roots and forecast errors are associated with inaccuracies in the depiction of processes and initial conditions over East Asia and the North Pacific;

(iv) How the interaction of these phenomena with the Asian waveguides generate subsequent high­impact weather events at downstream locations such as the Arctic, North America and Europe through propagating Rossby wave trains.

Observational activities during the field phases include enhanced use of operational resources (e.g., implementing rapid scan modes for satellite systems and supplemental radiosonde launches), research vessels measuring atmospheric and oceanic properties, research aircraft carrying advanced remote sensing systems that include Doppler radar, wind lidar and water vapor lidar, the deployment of dropsondes from research aircraft and stratospheric balloons called driftsonde and UAVs. The measurements for the Tropical Phase, in particular, relies collaboration of ongoing national efforts in China, Korea and Japan as well as the US’s Tropical Cyclone Structure­08 Experiment (TCS­08) that has strong links to the WWRP/Tropical Meteorology Program. The general strategies for accomplishing the T­PARC goals span observational, theoretical and modeling disciplines and, of course, long­term research efforts that span years beyond the field phase. The specific research tasks include:

(i) Provide recommendations on the design of the global observing system through forecast impact studies that utilize operational and experimental data from T­PARC and the collaborative experiments. The results of these impact studies will be interpreted in the context of other data denial experiments and Observing System Simulation Experiments.

(ii) Test the degree to which skill for short and medium range prediction can be improved by future assimilation and modeling strategies including the use of global models at non­ hydrostatic resolution.

(iii) Further the utility of ensemble models in mitigating natural disasters from high impact weather through testing and developing new ensemble techniques, improving the characterization of the forecast uncertainty in high impact events using multi­model ensembles such as TIGGE and NAEFS, and encouraging the use of ensemble products by decision makers.

(iv) Advance our understanding of the predictability of high impact weather events both over East Asia and the Northwest Pacific region and “downstream” locations such as the Arctic, North America, Europe and North Africa. The focus will be on heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones from genesis to ET/decay over East Asia and NW Pacific and large­scale disturbances that propagate along Asian wave guides and produce subsequent high impact weather events.

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(v) Capacity building and establishing societal and economic research and application projects. The expansion of adaptive observational techniques to the nations of Asia, with the potential of a legacy system in China, brings a capacity building effort that has a demonstrated track record for improving the prediction of landfalling typhoons. In addition, several projects connected to T­PARC have been proposed to better utilize forecast information such as Weather, Climate, Health and Public Safety in SE Asia, an effort to reduce deaths from cold air outbreaks on the high plateaus of Mexico and improved water resource management in North America.

• Activities and Plans of THORPEX in North America and Visions for the Future (David Parsons and Pierre Gauthier. Co­chairs, North American THORPEX Regional Committee)

The current activities and short­term priorities of the North American THORPEX Regional Committee are (NATRC):

• The North American Regional is participating in the THORPEX cluster within the International Polar Year (IPY) including several led or co­led by researchers from this region. Our IPY Efforts with include modeling and observational projects include: (i) A Canadian project termed STAR (Storm studies of the Arctic) designed to provide a better understanding of the physical features of Arctic storms and their hazards, the processes controlling them, and our predictive capabilities for them. STAR will use field observations, high­resolution modeling and remote sensing, including CLOUDSAT. STAR includes an international research team with investigators from the operational and academic communities. (ii) Another Canadian project called TAWEPI (THORPEX Arctic Weather and Environmental Prediction Initiative). A centerpiece and legacy of TAWEPI is the development and application of a high­resolution polar version of the GEMS model. The effort will use field campaign measurements, modeling, data assimilation and process studies to help to enhance the Polar­GEM weather and environmental forecasting capabilities, and improve our understanding of Arctic climate and influence on world weather. (iii) Another project with significant North American involvement is CONCORDIASI, which is primarily a French­US collaboration. CONCORDIASI will use in­ situ measurements to improve satellite data assimilation over Antarctica. The project will also address ozone depletion, the microphysics of stratospheric clouds, vortex dynamics, adaptive use of in­situ sensing, improved prediction of precipitation and understanding of how Antarctic processes influence weather events at lower latitudes. (iv) US and Canadian investigators are also participating in a number of IPY projects including a major US involvement in the Arctic High­Resolution Data Assimilation, Modeling and Reanalysis project and US and Canadian involvement in the Greenland Flow Distortion Experiment. Additional IPY­THORPEX participation has been proposed.

• The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T­PARC), which is being undertaken in collaboration with Asian Regional Committee and European investigators. The North American goals include advancing knowledge and improving prediction of (i) the genesis, track, landfall, and evolution of rapid tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific including rapid intensification and other changes in storm structure, (ii) the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones, (iii) winter cyclones and (iv) how the interaction of these events with the Asian waveguides generate subsequent high impact weather events through propagating Rossby wave trains. The T­PARC research efforts to improve forecast skill include investigating the dependence of forecast skill on the design of the global observing system, the use of ensemble forecast systems (e.g., TIGGE and NAEFS), and testing current and future assimilation and modeling systems. T­PARC participation within tour region includes investigators from Canada, Mexico and the US. Within the US, T­ PARC includes a large grants program with ~15 funded projects that are led by researchers from the academic community.

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• The North American region has a significant focus on ensemble prediction and research with the operational North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) and participation in TIGGE. The region’s operational modeling centers participate in TIGGE with NCAR serving as an archive center. Approximately 50 researchers have registered to obtain TIGGE data from NCAR. While TIGGE is a research effort, NAEFS is a new multi­model operational ensemble system run jointly by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) and the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). NAEFS produces forecasts out to week 2 for use by MSC, NWS and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico. Together TIGGE and NAEFS have the potential to increase the use of ensemble products for research with a potential path toward the operational implementation of the research findings.

The longer­term vision for North American THORPEX includes significant research efforts on the topics discussed above as T­PARC will not take place until 2008­09 and most of the IPY projects have either not yet started or just gotten underway. In addition, the following additional efforts are planned.

• A long­term priority of our regional effort is tropical­extratropical interactions with a focus on the improved representation of organized tropical convection and its effect on middle latitude weather. Significant advancements in the treatment of organized tropical convection, from mesoscale convective systems to the MJO, in numerical models are a high priority from the standpoint of attempting to improve both climate projections and weather prediction. Seasonal prediction is another area that would benefit from collaboration between the climate and weather communities. The regional effort plans to participate in the international efforts currently be planned in this area such as the Year of Tropical Convection and Seamless Prediction.

• Our other long­term efforts include capacity building and developing specific projects for the socioeconomic research and application area of THORPEX. Our motivation is that increased activities in these areas are necessary if THORPEX is to realize its goal to mitigate natural disasters. Preliminary steps taken by in this direction include: (i) A North American THORPEX workshop was held last year on the role of socioeconomic in THORPEX. (ii) Our last regional committee meeting was devoted to capacity building and ideas on potential socioeconomic demonstration projects. (iii) The future focus on the THORPEX within the US will be on topics at the intersection of the science of prediction, research on processes/phenomena and socioeconomic research and applications. The next step will be the development of specific projects. Efforts discussed to date include prediction and water management in the Mexico, Canada and the US, Weather, Climate, Health and Public Safety in SE Asia, and disaster mitigation for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.

The support needs from THORPEX and the WMO are likely to include the following:

• The regional committee has annual meetings. These meetings have been self­organized and have been self­funded. The regional efforts is expected to expand to include other nations within this WMO region, WMO/WWRP support will be required to ensure the participation of the developing countries in the regional and international activities. These activities will likely include workshop on T­PARC results. Assistance would also be welcome in encouraging more nations within our region to become involved as to date our effort has only included the US, Mexico and Canada.

• The development of socioeconomic programs will require seed funding for workshops aimed at conceptualizing socioeconomic projects, particularly for the participants from developing nations. Assistance from the WMO/WWRP in resource mobilization would be helpful, particularly for development of the larger international efforts.

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• We would welcome a workshop by the WMO that brings together investigators from the various projects within the IPY­THORPEX cluster. Many common problems (improved satellite data assimilation, improvement of physical processes and impacts of polar processes on the global circulation) are being faced by these diverse efforts making discussions between participants potentially quite valuable.

• We look forward to enhanced collaborations across scales that are now possible with the new WWRP structure. While the importance of climate­weather interactions have been noted, we also encourage the WMO/WWRP to increase interactions between the global prediction and regional modeling communities.

5.4 Summary of Joint Working Group on Verification (JWGV) activities The JWGV’s many activities included the Beijing Olympics FDP/RDP; the THORPEX

International Global Grand Ensemble (TIGGE) project; MAP D­PHASE and THORPEX Societal and Economics Research and Application (SERA). In addition, the JWGV organized and coordinated the 3rd International Workshop on Verification Methods from 29 January – 2 February 2007, in Reading, UK. The JWGV also engaged in a variety of other verification outreach activities.

Forecast Demonstration Projects

The JWGV has been heavily involved in preparations for the Beijing Olympics FDP and RDP (B08). Ms B. Brown and Dr L. Wilson have provided verification plans, approaches, and support as members of the Scientific Steering Committees for the FDP and RDP, respectively. Dr E. Ebert has developed a Real­Time Forecast Verification (RTFV) system which was successfully demonstrated in Beijing during the August 2007 trials. This system will include standard verification approaches as well as recently developed approaches for evaluation of spatial nowcasts/forecasts of precipitation and convection. It will provide a new real­time application of verification in an FDP, and has already expanded the capabilities of nowcasting verification.

Dr E. Ebert participated in the MAP D­PHASE Workshop on November 2006 and provided new “neighborhood” verification methodologies that were implemented and will be applied in the MAP D­PHASE evaluations. Dr E. Ebert and Ms B. Brown have provided consultation on verification methodologies to be applied in MAP D­PHASE.

3rd International Workshop on Verification Methods

The JWGV organized and held from 29 January to 2 February 2007 in Reading, U.K, the Third International Verification Methods Workshop (Report # WWRP 2007­2; WMO TD1391) with co­sponsorship from WWRP and WCRP as well as the European Cooperation in the Field of Scientific and Technical Research (COST) and the European Centre for Medium­Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The workshop had 131 participants from 32 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), 3 international organizations, 13 government agencies, 11 universities and 3 private weather service providers.

The workshop focused on new verification techniques and issues related to the practice of forecast verification, as well as contributed presentations on verification methodologies applied to a variety of forecasts (including forecasts of phenomena outside of atmospheric sciences, such as economics) and the development of new verification packages (e.g., the verification package in “R”). Subjects covered included verification of ensemble/probability forecasts, extreme events, and forecast value and user issues. The JWGV also provided a hands­on verification tutorial for 31 students during the 2.5 days prior to the workshop. Topics covered included basic verification principles, verification of categorical and continuous variables, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, and inference and uncertainty in verification. The students provided very positive reviews of the tutorial sessions.

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A special issue of Meteorological Applications is being organized to summarize the results of the workshop, and an article describing the state­of­the­art in verification was prepared by JWGV members and submitted as a contribution to this special issue.

THORPEX/TIGGE

Three members of the JWGV (B. Brown, E. Ebert, and L. Wilson) are members of the TIGGE Steering Committee and have participated in TIGGE meetings. At the TIGGE meeting in March 2007, a verification protocol developed by the JWGV was presented, discussed, and adapted. The JWGV also presented a proposal for observation collection and archival for TIGGE.

Spatial verification method intercomparison

As many new verification methods have recently been proposed for application to high­ resolution forecasts, an intercomparison project has been developed to endeavor to assess the capabilities of the various methods and understand their differences. This effort has involved many verification development groups and is being facilitated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. An informal one­day workshop on this effort took place in February 2007 to help coordinate this project. JWGV members also continued to develop new methods for model, nowcast, and use­relevant verification.

User­focused verification and SERA­related activities

Several JWGV members participated in a workshop to develop a SERA research plan for the North American THORPEX, with a focus on development of verification methods and protocols that are relevant for forecast users and forecast improvement.

Outreach

The JWGV continued to support and develop a web page on verification methods (http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/verif_web_page.html). In addition, a verification discussion group (vx­discuss@mailman.ucar.edu) is administered by the JWGV. Over the last two years. Dr P. Nurmi and Dr L. Wilson also developed a verification training module through EUMETCAL (http://www.eumetcal.org.uk/eumetcal/verification/www/english/courses/msgcrs/index.htm) which is now available to all users.

Future

Members of the JWGV are working on development of the WWRP strategic plan. Elements of this plan will include completion of the B08 verification effort, including the demonstration of new verification approaches; continued support of the analyses of the MAP D­PHASE verifications studies; implementation of additional verification efforts in future FDPs and RDPs (e.g., Vancouver Winter Olympics); organization and planning of the 4th International Verification Workshop, including a longer and more extensive tutorial session; development of specialized verification workshops (e.g., on verification of nowcasts) in collaboration with other working groups; closer collaboration with other WMO verification efforts, including programs in CBS; continued support for the spatial verification methods intercomparison and other intercomparisons; and additional research on verification methods (e.g., for ensemble forecasts, extremes).

6. NEW WORKSHOPS SUPPORTED BY OPAG­WWRP

• WMO workshop on 4D­VAR and Ensemble Kalman Filter inter­comparisons, Buenos­ Aires, Argentina, 10­13 November 2008. Four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D­Var) introduced in the mid 80's, has

grown from an initial theoretical formulation based on optimal control theory, to highly complex and successful implementations in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers around the

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world. About a decade after the introduction of 4D­Var, an original suggestion made by Evensen culminated with an attractive data assimilation procedure now known as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). In the last decade, an increased interest in this approach has led to significant improvement in its theoretical foundations and practical implementations. Although 4D­Var and EnKF can be written in similar symbolic form, their specific theoretical and implementation limitations are of high interest and work is needed to clarify the methodologies in the face of complex operational implementations that are currently envisaged. The primary purpose of the workshop is to encourage scientific discussions for a better understanding of the two data assimilation methods by current researchers in the field and to stimulate interest of younger scientists. The workshop will also focus on intercomparisons of the two methods in various contexts, incorporating both theoretical considerations as well as practical implementations, and with a special emphasis on atmospheric data assimilation. The discussions should therefore provide a solid scientific basis for supporting practical decisions eventually to be taken by meteorological agencies concerned. (Organizing committee: L. Fillion, E. Kalnay, R. Errico, M. Ehrendorfer and K. Puri)

• “Climate and Weather Modelling Summit” (to date a tentative title), European Centre for Medium­Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, 6­9 May 2008

The Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) of The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) is organizing the WCRP Modeling Summit with a goal to develop a modeling strategy to implement the requirements of the WCRP strategic plan. WWRP is also sponsoring the meeting.

It is proposed that the Summit will address the following questions:

1. What is the value to society of accurate and reliable climate predictions? 2. What is the current status of models in simulating and predicting climate? 3. How do we implement the WCRP strategy of seamless prediction of weather and climate? 4. What human and computing resources are needed to test the hypothesis that a global

climate model that resolves deep convection in the atmosphere and energetic eddies in the ocean will lead to significantly improved simulation and prediction of climate?

5. What is the right balance between a multi­institutional, multi­ model strategy and a multi­ institutional, unified modelling framework?

6. What is the right balance between developing comprehensive Earth system models and enhancing the realism of the representation of the physical climate system?

The committee's first tasks will be to refine and expand these questions, to develop an agenda for the meeting, and formulate a list of invitees. Gilbert Brunet is member of the organizing committee.

7. REVIEW AND PROGRESS OF THE JSC OPAG­WWRP DECISIONS

Decision 1: Develop a common vision between the WGMWF, THORPEX TIGGE and its TIGGE­ LAM panel and the T­PARC and incorporate it into the WWRP Strategic Plan (Action: Chairs of WGMWF, TIGGE­LAM, T­PARC and Secretariat, S. Nickovic).

• Report: none

Decision 2: Define the link of the Nowcasting Working Group (NWG) (Research) of WWRP with the Working Group on Nowcasting (Applications) of WMO’s Applications Department in the WWRP strategic plan with clear terms of reference for Joint Nowcasting Applications and Services Steering Committee (JONASSC). JONASSC should be limited in membership to leaders in the respective nowcasting groups and no extra meetings or travel support expended in conducting their liaison work. (Action: Chair of all Groups T. Keenan and the Secretariat, N. Lomarda and H. Kootval).

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• Report: The interim JONASSC meet for the first time 18­20 April, 2007 in Geneva to consider the development of a joint PWSP­WWRP Nowcasting Applications implementation plan. A strategic plan is now under preparation and with target completion date of 30 October, 2007. Enhancing capability to assess economic and societal impact with the initiative remains a key challenge. The strong link with the WWRP NWG is included to avoid duplication and to enhance the overall effectiveness of both groups.

Decision 3: Since the weather research rather than the climate research community is most suited to addressing questions about the effect of past climate change on tropical cyclones and the adequacy of observations in detecting change, the JSC endorses the leadership WGTMR in organizing a workshop on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones. Cooperation with other working groups of WWRP and the climate research community should be included. It is proposed that this collaborative effort is discussed in the weather­climate prediction white paper (see Section 7.2) (Action: Chair of WGTMR)

• Report: The topic of impact of climate change on tropical cyclone activity/intensity has been addressed in two statements summarizing the present state of knowledge. This is an appropriate topic for the tropical cyclone panel of the WGTMR. The panel considers whether a meeting of the expert team on this topic should meet formally or conduct their deliberations via email, and coordinate this activity with the world climate research program as appropriate. On the other hand, it seems needed to produce a formal WMO report updating the status of this topic at least each two years and produce a report at each IWTC.

Decision 4: Consider a WMO global assessment of the Societal and Economic Benefits of Weather Forecasting project to the SERA contribution to the WWRP Strategic Plan (Action: Chair of SERA)

• Report: none

Decision 5: The JSC supported the recommendation that a meeting of experts on the development and application of forecast systems is held in 2008 cutting across commissions (CBS and CAS) and programmes (WWRP, WWW/DPFS and Applications/PWS). Initial coordination of this meeting should be undertaken under the direction of the chair of the WWRP Nowcasting Research Working Group consulting with other WWRP WG’s and the other WMO programmes (Action: Chair of WG on Nowcasting).

• Report: In principle an agreement has been obtained to conduct a technical forum of invited experts sourced from CBS and WWRP to facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting Systems. This forum is included in the meeting schedule for 2008. The WWRP issues for consideration include: Exchange of information on system development and implementation, including the costs and benefits of forecast systems and processes; Establishment of standards and criteria for assessing systems and their components; Facilitating comparative studies on alternative solutions to problems in the design and implementation of systems and processes.

Decision 6: In consultation with the WCRP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) consideration should be given to the need for a WWRP expert group on model parameterizations for NWP models particularly for convection, clouds and precipitation processes and the outcome reflected in the WWRP strategic plan (Action: Chairs of WGNE and JSC­WWRP).

• Report: We will start these discussions at the Shanghai WGNE meeting. The SIP of WWRP will address the research issue of model parameterization in the section 3.2 “Predictability, Dynamical and Physical Processes”.

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Decision 7: WWRP should continue to jointly organize and support with WCRP, the annual WGNE meeting (the next is 22­26 October 2007 in Shanghai) and to ensure that not only THORPEX but the whole of WWRP including THORPEX is addressed (Action: D/AREP).

• Done: WWRP has shared the cost of organizing this meeting with WCRP. An email was sent to Martin Miller requesting that deference be paid by WGNE organizers that WWRP­ THORPEX should be the branding of WMO weather forecast research initiatives. Gilbert Brunet will participate to coordinate and develop relevant new synergies with WWRP.

Decision 8: The JSC­WWRP endorsed the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning System as a project of WWRP and recommended that it be submitted to WMO as a Disaster Risk Reduction Project of widespread interest to WMO members in Africa, the middle East and Asia (Action: D/AREP).

• Report: Not yet totally accomplished although WMO SDS is on the DRR radar. In September, a project was submitted to Phase II of a GFDRR call for proposals in collaboration with the DRR programme and the WMO DCR Department Resource Mobilization Chief. It was entitled “Reduction of Disaster Risks from Desert Dust using the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning System (WMO SDSWS)” and is targeted at assisting Yemen, Algeria and Turkey engage in WMO SDS WS. The SDS Workshop in Barcelona will be opened by CAS President M. Béland.

Decision 9: The JSC­WWRP welcomed collaboration with the operational NWP programmes of WMO and emphasized that a seamless link between research and operations through technology transfer, training and capacity building will be part of the strategic plan of WWRP (Action: Chair JSC­WWRP).

• Report: An assessment of ongoing activities and identification of new opportunities will be reported when the WWRP chief position will be filled.

Decision 10: The JSC acknowledged the importance of DRR projects but express some confusion regarding the transparency of the project selection process. It endorsed the Shanghai initiative led by AREP. It also noted that the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Project as well as TIGGE Phase II are prime candidates for future projects. It requested the Director of AREP to keep the JSC informed and to provide guidance on the steps toward establish a DRR project (Action: D/AREP).

• Report: The internal DRR coordinating team of Directors led by AREP is drafting a procedure for initiating new projects. Fig 1 has the first draft.

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Decision 11: The JSC welcomed cooperation with GEO especially in strengthening the delivery of WWRP­THORPEX research through applications serving the nine GEO Societal Benefit Areas. Activities of the new WWRP programme including THORPEX should be represented in GEO and include TIGGE, seamless weather/climate prediction and the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Project (Action: D/AREP).

• Done: Two papers have been submitted to the book for GEO Summit on behalf of the WWRP­THORPEX and WCRP communities. TIGGE and on The Socioeconomic and Environmental Benefits of a Revolution in Weather, Climate and Earth­System Analysis and Prediction: A Weather, Climate and Earth­System Prediction Project for the 21st Century.

• In final steps are: templates on the same topics plus WMO SDS and IGACO/GAW Integrated Atmospheric Chemistry Observing System for the ANNEX to the GEO Summit Report.

Decision 12: The JSC supports WWRP­THORPEX collaboration with WCRP to develop a strategy and implementation plan for YOTC in late 2007 and 2008 and recommended close coordination with the WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research and its Panels (Action: D/AREP).

• Proceeding well: On 13­14 November 2007 in Washington DC region, a joint WWRP­ THORPEX and WCRP workshop on YOTC will take place. It includes many members of the WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research as well as members of THORPEX and WCRP. Contact in organizing is WMO WWRP website Jim Caughey.

Decision 13: Make a proposal to the THORPEX ICSC that a joint WWRP­THORPEX Science Conference should be held in 4 years (Action: Chair JSC­WWRP).

• Report: The discussions are ongoing between the different partners. To date only two locations have been proposed: Boulder and San Francisco.

Decision 14: Hold the next meeting of the JSC in 2008 in Geneva at a time to be determined later (Action: D/AREP and Chair JSC­WWRP).

• Report: none

8. PROPOSED MEMBERSHIP OF THE CHAIR JSSC OPAG­WWRP The following table contains the proposed membership for the JSC OPAG­WWRP to be

endorsed by the CAS MG.

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Membership list of OPAG WWRP JSC

Title First name Family name Address Country Tel/fax/e­mail

Dr Gilbert BRUNET Chairman of WWRP­JSC Environment Canada 2121 Transcanada Highway ­ 5th floor DORVAL, Quebec H9P 1J3

Canada 1­514 421 4617 1­514 421 2106 Gilbert.Brunet@ec.gc.ca

Dr Barbara BROWN Chairperson, WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Verification NCAR, P.O. Box 3000 BOULDER, CO 80307­3000

USA 1 303 497 8468 1 303 497 8386 bgb@ucar.edu

Dr David BURRIDGE Chairman, THORPEX ICSC ECMWF, Shinfield Park READING, Berkshire RG2 9AX

United Kingdom

d.m.burridge@btinternet.com

Dr Lianshou CHEN Chairman, Working Group on Tropical Meteorology CAMS, China Meteorological Administration 46 Zhong Guan Cun South Street 10081 BEIJING

China 86 10 6840 7056 86 10 6217 5931 lschen@cams.cma.gov.cn

Prof Huw C. DAVIES Member, JSC­WWRP Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Universitastrasse 16 CH 8092 ZURICH

Switzerland 41 44 633 3506 41 44 633 1058 huw.davies@env.ethz.ch

Dr Tom KEENAN Chairman, Working Group on Nowcasting Weather Forecasting Group Bureau of Meteorology Research Center GPO Box 1289 K MELBOURNE 3001

Australia 613 9669 4483 613 9669 4660 T.Keenan@bom.gov.au

Dr Ko KOIZUMI Member, JSC­WWRP Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1­3­4 Otemachi, Chiyoda­ku TOKYO

Japan 81 33 212 8341 81 33 211 8407 kkoizumi@met.kishou.go.jp

Mr Jean Philippe

LAFORE Member, JSC­WWRP CNRM, Météo­France 42 avenue Coriolis 31057 TOULOUSE Cedex

France 33 56 107 9325 33 56 107 9626 jean­philippe.lafore@meteo.fr

Dr Jeff LAZO Chairman, Working Group on Social and Economic Research and Applications National Center for Atmospheric Research P.O. Box 3000 BOULDER, CO 80307

USA 001 303 497 2857 001 303 497 8401 lazo@ucar.edu

Dr Martin MILLER Chairman, Working Group on Numerical Experimentation ECMWF, Shinfield Park READING, Berkshire RG2 9AX

United Kingdom

118 949 9070 119 986 9450 pab@ecmwf.int

Mrs Jeanette ONVLEE Chairperson, Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Wilhelminalaaan 10, P.O. Box 201 NL 3730 AE de Bilt

Netherlands 31 302 20 66 43 31 30 21 04 07 jeanette.onvlee@knmi.nl

Dr Dave PARSONS Member, JSC­WWRP NCAR, P.O. Box 3000 BOULDER, CO 80307­3000

USA 001 303 497 8749 001 303 497 8700 parsons@ucar.edu

Dr Melvyn SHAPIRO Member, JSC­WWRP NCAR, P.O. Box 3000 BOULDER, CO 80307­3000

USA 001 303 497 8965 001 303 497 8171 e­mail: mshapiro@ucar.edu

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ATTACHMENT 4

Report on CAS/WCRP Working Group on Numerical Experimentation

(Submitted by M. Miller, chair of the WGNE)

The following text briefly review the main activities of WGNE in support of CAS objectives, emphasizing items arising at its twenty­second session which was kindly hosted by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado USA, 24 ­27 October 2006. On this occasion the 24 October was a joint session with the WMP. Emphasis has been given to activities where international coordination is paramount and facilitated by the working group’s existence, or where new scientific initiatives are involved.

1. ROLE OF WGNE IN SUPPORT OF CAS AND WCRP WGNE, as a joint working group of CAS and the JSC/WCRP, has the basic responsibility of

fostering the development of atmospheric models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all space and timescales. In the WCRP, WGNE is at the core of the global modelling effort and co­ordination between WGNE, WGCM and WGSIP is maintained primarily through ex officio meeting attendances. WGNE also works in close conjunction with the WCRP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) particularly in the development of atmospheric model parametrizations, with WGNE sessions held jointly with the GMPP (but not in 2006). The WGNE Chair attends the new JSC of the WWRP, the CAS Management Group and the THORPEX ICSC, he is also a member of the WCRP/WMP, with WGNE represented on WOAP also. WGNE also has specific THORPEX sessions at its meetings. The close relationship that exists between WGNE and operational (NWP) centres underpins many of the activities of WGNE, and it is the work of these centres that provides much of the impetus for the development and refinement of the physics and dynamics of atmospheric models.

2. STUDIES AND COMPARISONS OF ATMOSPHERIC MODEL SIMULATIONS Model inter­comparison exercises are a key element in meeting a basic WGNE objective of

identifying errors in atmospheric models, appreciating their causes and reducing or eliminating these errors.

PCMDI, CMIP and a Workshop on Model systematic errors

WGNE congratulated PCMDI for continuing to maintain and enhance a valuable infrastructure for processing model outputs at PCMDI and establishing efficient data formats etc for such exchanges of model simulations. The recent outstanding achievements in the context of the IPCC/AR4 are of particular note. PCMDI has offered to receive high resolution NWP AMIP­type runs to complement their ongoing CMIP activities.

PCMDI was the local host for a pan­WCRP/CAS workshop on Model systematic errors in February 2007 attended by about 170 people. This was organized by PCMDI and WGNE with input from WGCM and GMPP, and the programme was structured by timescales to emphasis the ‘seamlessness’ of many model errors. A full report on this very successful meeting is available.

“Transpose” AMIP

The goal of the WGNE­Transpose AMIP is to obtain the benefits for climate model development and evaluation that have been invaluable for weather prediction model development, by applying climate models to weather forecasting. The method allows direct comparison of parametrized variables such as clouds and precipitation with synoptic observations, satellite and field programmes. In general, development of a complete analysis system is not needed with initial conditions obtained from NWP (re­)analyses. The method allows direct comparison of parametrized variables such as clouds and precipitation with observations including field

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programmes (such as ARM), early in the forecast while the model state is still near that of the real atmosphere. This WGNE initiative was prototyped jointly by PCMDI and NCAR and known as CAPT. The intention is to encourage climate modelling groups to implement this forecast strategy into their development process. The formal proposal for Transpose AMIP has been sent to climate modelling groups.

Aqua­Planet Experiments (APE)

WGNE recognizes the value of applying atmospheric models to simplified surface conditions for examining the behaviour of physical parametrizations and the interactions of parametrizations with the dynamical cores. In particular, "aqua­planet" experiments with a basic sea surface temperature distribution offer a useful vehicle in this regard. The details of the experiment and schedule are available at http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~mike/APE. The experiment is designed to provide a benchmark of current model behaviour and to stimulate research to understand differences arising from: (1) different subgrid­scale parametrization suites, (2) different dynamical cores, and (3) different methods of coupling model dynamics and parametrizations. Using the APE database, analysis of the APE experiments is continuing for another year. Following the workshop held in April 2005, a second workshop is planned to discuss the more complete analyses in late 2007 at the University of Tokyo. The basic experiments are deliberately done at "climate model" resolutions but a few groups are examining convergence with resolution and the results and interpretation of resolution studies will be an important outcome of this work.

Regional Climate Modelling

Following the WMO/WCRP sponsored RCM Workshop in Lund, Sweden in 2004, the Transferability Working Group (TWG) was created. The aims of this group are to assess the global applicability of RCMs in regions remote from their home domain of development. Particular emphasis is being placed on the simulation of regional scale water and energy cycles in a wide variety of climatic regimes and the Inter Continental Scale Experiment Transferability Study (ICTS) focussing on GEWEX Continental Scale Experiment sites is in progress. A second RCM workshop is planned for 2008, probably in Trieste (ICTP). WGNE also discussed results from SGMIP (Stretched Grid Model Inter­comparison Project). It will continue to monitor the developments in this area in its future sessions.

3. CLIMATE MODEL METRICS WGNE has been involved in developing standard climate model diagnostics and metrics for

some years. The goal of such metrics is to objectively measure model quality or skill and suitable metrics depend on the intended applications. The application for climate models includes the prediction of future climates for which no verification data will be available within the lifetime of the model. WGNE discussed the issue of climate model metrics at some length with many questions and issues resulting. A sub group with a member from each of PCMDI, WGCM, WGNE, GMPP and the JWGV (Joint Working Group on Verification) will define the climate model metrics and standard verification data sets with the intention of asking WCRP to encourage usage of these metrics for climate models. It was decided to ensure some emphasis on climate model metrics at the February 2007 model systematic errors workshop. The need for good metrics for climate­type models is under discussion. WGNE will discuss this further also in the context of the new ‘unified’ prediction systems.

4. PHYSICAL PARAMETRIZATIONS IN MODELS WGNE’s close working relationship with GMPP (the GEWEX modelling and prediction

panel), provides the focus for the development, refinement and evaluation of atmospheric model parametrizations, notably those of cloud and radiation, land surface processes and soil moisture, and the atmospheric boundary layer. WGNE reiterated the value of the interaction with GMPP for parametrization work, particularly with GCSS. A joint WGNE/GCSS model intercomparison study of a Pacific cross section (GPCI) to evaluate physical parametrizations along the atmospheric cross section following the trade winds is in progress, with excellent support from both NWP and

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climate modeling groups. The need for an expert group on parametrization to advise both WCRP and WWRP (and their Working Groups) was discussed, and further consideration is being given to this in consultation with the GMPP. (As an agenda item at the forthcoming WGNE/GMPP meeting in October)

5. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

Reanalysis projects and data assimilation

The ERA­40 reanalysis at ECMWF is complete and an “interim reanalysis” has begun. This is running from 1989 onwards. It contains improvements that greatly alleviate deficiencies identified in ERA­40. A comprehensive atlas of the atmospheric general circulation as depicted by ERA­40 has been produced in collaboration with the Meteorology Department of the University of Reading. The Japanese 25­year Reanalysis Project (JRA­25, 1979­2004) has been completed. WGNE reiterated its strong support for the reanalysis work, the desirability of maintaining a core of experts without excessive duplication of effort and ensuring efficient phasing of these efforts.

Earth System assimilation

The new developments in the assimilation of parameters pertinent to the Earth System but not routinely analysed by current data assimilation systems are being monitored by WGNE. These include analyses of greenhouse gases, aerosols and reactive gases. Earth system science such as the GEMS (Global and regional Earth­system Monitoring using Satellite and in­situ data) project will increasingly demand cross­project liaison within WCRP and CAS.

Model developments

WGNE noted the substantial improvements in the resolution of global and deep convection permitting forecast models in progress or planned in the next few years. There exists a dichotomy of opinion regarding the use and interpretation of grid­lengths of several kms for forecasting. These resolutions will become affordable for GCM use in the coming years, and the prospect of climate simulations with grids of order one kilometre is an issue of international activity and debate, and WGNE will continue to monitor such developments. Recent results showing the need for model resolutions of 100 kms or better to properly define the statistics of extra­tropical storm tracks were noted. This contrasts with typical climate model resolutions substantially poorer than this, a matter of serious concern to the group.

WGNE noted that plans for unified (coupled) forecast systems that will provide forecasts from days out to seasons, typically by progressively degrading the resolution with forecast range, will provide new opportunities for ensemble techniques, including initial perturbations, stochastic parametrizations and metrics, and bring even closer collaboration between the NWP and climate communities.

WGNE will contribute to the TFSP meeting in Barcelona, June, 2007 including a report on the Systematic Errors workshop.

Performance of the main global operational forecasting models

WGNE routinely reviews the skill of daily forecasts from a number of the main operational centres in terms of verification scores (such as anomaly correlation and root mean square error) for various fields at different lead times. For most centres, a distinct increase in skill continues.

Model Verification

With global models attaining much higher resolutions, and mesoscale models being routinely run at most operational centres, consideration is being given to additional skill scores to the conventional ones that are more appropriate for such resolutions. Furthermore there is an

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increasing requirement to provide measures of model performance for predicting weather elements and severe weather events. The joint WGNE/WWRP working group on verification (JWGC) is now considering this important subject.

There are a number of WGNE projects involved with the validation of forecasts. New developments were discussed including the development of methods to verify high resolution spatial forecasts; verification methods for rare events; incorporation of scaling methods into verification processes; approaches to account for observational uncertainty in verification measures and analyses; development of methods that are customer dependent and appropriate for studies of forecast value; and verification of probability distribution functions.

Inter­comparison of typhoon track forecasts

The inter­comparison of forecasts of typhoon tracks has been an ongoing project that has been conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency on behalf of WGNE for a number of years. This now includes all ocean basins, and data from operational forecasts is now available from eight Centres. The overall gradually improving performance of these models in predicting cyclone tracks over the past few years has been maintained. In future statistics will be gathered to assess the skill in intensity forecasts and forecasts of cyclone genesis. Many results related to typhoon track forecast including a multi­model ensemble are presented on the web site (http://nwp­verif.kishou.go.jp/wgne_tc/index.html (user id and password are required)).

Verification and inter­comparison of precipitation forecasts

This WGNE initiative is being conducted at the DWD, NCEP, BMRC, CMA, JMA, CMC, the Met Office and Meteo­France. Quantitative global precipitation forecasts from the above are being verified against surface stations in these relatively data rich areas (some Centres also include their limited area model forecasts in the verification). A series of scores such as bias, Heike skill score, equitable threat score are used. It was noted that there is clear evidence from several Centres that the skill of precipitation forecasts in mid­latitudes was increasing.

Model­derived estimates of ocean­atmosphere fluxes (SURFA)

SURFA will evaluate and inter­compare global surface flux products (over ocean and land) from the operational products of a number of the main NWP centres and this will provide a good opportunity for estimating and determining the quality of model surface fluxes, of considerable relevance to atmospheric and coupled modelling communities and oceanographers. Following a joint session at WGNE­22 with the WCRP Working Group on Surface Fluxes (WGSF) it has been agreed to revitalize SURFA, and an agreed set of NWP fields etc will be routinely archived at the National Climate Data Centre from a number of NWP Centres (after a preliminary pilot study currently in progress).

The WGNE ‘Blue book’

A key WGNE publication for many years has been the WGNE "blue cover" numerical experimentation report series which continues to be popular with the modelling community. and is prepared on behalf of WGNE by Recherche en Prevision Numerique (RPN), Montreal since its inception, and the latest annual summary of research activities in atmospheric and oceanic modelling (No. 36) has been released. This publication is facilitated by use of e­mail contact and the website at RPN, (www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/rpn/wgne)

6. THORPEX At the 22nd WGNE meeting there was a session which reviewed the status and plans of

THORPEX and the wide­ranging opportunities for collaboration and synergy with WCRP and other bodies. The plans for T­PARC were of particular note, and this ‘campaign’ promises to make a major contribution to our understanding of meteorology in the Pacific basin.

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The use of ensemble methods now forms a cornerstone of forecasting on all timescales, and WGNE hoped that the rapidly progressing TIGGE project will help accelerate the effective use of ensemble forecasting information.

7. A YEAR OF TROPICAL CONVECTION WGNE discussed the proposal for ‘A Year of Tropical Convection’ (YOTC) which as

currently envisaged, is aiming to assemble a dataset that will enable focussed research on many aspects of tropical convection, which in turn should lead to significant/important advances in our NWP abilities on all timescales currently labelled under 'seamless' prediction. The discussions strongly supported the idea but felt that it was less clear how the aims of the YOTC would be achieved. Some concern was also expressed that the proposed timescales were somewhat too tight.

As this YOTC dataset will be a judicious combination of many existing datasets in a variety of forms and repositories, questions were asked as to whether this is an opportunity to harness the powers of the new WMO Information System (WIS), and what was the YOTC relationship to other planned 'global' activities such as IPY and a possible Monsoon' focus. It was suggested that WWRP and WCRP should consider these questions and the efficacy of having a working group and/or a workshop in 2007. (Meeting now planned for November). Recognizing that convection is central to many problems in modelling research on almost all space and time scales, WGNE/GMPP were already jointly considering a high resolution modelling experiment specifically directed towards aiding and accelerating parametrization development. This could be part of a coordinated effort to benefit the entire community.

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ATTACHMENT 5

Revised WMO Weather Modification Documents:

“WMO STATEMENT ON WEATHER MODIFICATION (INCLUDING AN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY)” AND THE “WMO GUIDELINES FOR THE PLANNING OF WEATHER MODIFICATION

ACTIVITIES” (Approved September 2007 with editorial changes in yellow)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY of the WMO STATEMENT on WEATHER MODIFICATION

Purposeful augmentation of precipitation, reduction of hail damage, dispersion of fog and other types of cloud and storm modifications by cloud seeding are developing technologies which are still striving to achieve a sound scientific foundation and which have to be adapted to enormously varied natural conditions.

Operational programmes in fog dispersion, rain and snow enhancement and hail suppression are taking place in many countries around the world. The primary aim of these projects is to obtain more water, reduce hail damage, eliminate fog, or other similar practical result in response to a recognized need. Accomplishment of the stated goals is often difficult to establish with sufficient confidence. Economic analyses show that rainfall enhancement and hail suppression operations, if successful, could have significant economic benefit, but uncertainties make investments in such efforts subject to considerable risks.

Research programmes are currently less numerous and are undertaken in only a few countries. The main purposes of research projects are, in general, to elucidate weather modification concepts, to examine some link(s) in the overall modification hypothesis, to test the efficacy and impacts of some modification activity, or to establish proof for some proposed or previously tested methodology. The long­term practical aim of research is to provide a sound basis for the operational implementation of the research results.

In order to identify and confirm the results of seeding experiments and operations, it is necessary to employ sophisticated statistical designs and analyses. Confidence intervals should be included in the statistical analyses to provide an estimate of the strength of the seeding effect so informed judgments can be made about its cost effectiveness and societal significance.

Improvements in observational facilities and modeling capabilities now permit more detailed examination of the cloud and precipitation processes and offer new opportunities for advancing the science and practice of weather modification.

While the outcomes of operational projects in hydrological, economic or other similar terms is usually difficult to ascertain with confidence, it has been shown to be possible under appropriate circumstances such as very long project duration and the existence of highly correlated control areas. Much work is being done to explore additional ways of evaluation. Operational projects, in comparison with research projects, accept a higher degree of uncertainty in the outcome of the intervention and therefore a considerable burden in justifying the investment needed.

Cloud structure can vary widely from region to region. Seeding results in one geographic area cannot be automatically assumed to apply to another area. Transferability should be carefully considered, since, in addition to meteorological factors, differences in aerosol and trace gas constituents, surface characteristics and other factors may also cause unexpected variations in cloud behavior and cloud response to intervention.

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Unintended consequences of cloud seeding, such as downwind effects and environmental and ecological impacts, have not been demonstrated but cannot be ruled out.

There is mounting evidence that human activities modify local and sometimes regional cloud properties and precipitation. Clarification of the existence and processes of such inadvertent weather modification may provide important insights into the possibilities and limitations of deliberate weather modification.

The activities of the WMO in the area of weather modification are aimed at encouraging research projects, and at providing guidance about best practices for operational projects.

The status of different technologies, and the physical concepts underlying them, is summarized as follows:

a. Fog dispersal

In principle, all types of fog can be dispersed by sufficient heating or mechanical mixing, though such methods are often impractical and expensive. It may be economically viable at airports where the cost of aircraft delays and cancellations are very high.

Dispersal of supercooled fogs using glaciogenic materials or coolants is well established as feasible.

Seeding with hygroscopic materials has been shown to increase visibility in some types of warm fogs. An environmentally acceptable technology has yet to be demonstrated.

Precipitation enhancement

There is considerable evidence that cloud microstructure can be modified by seeding with glaciogenic or hygroscopic materials under appropriate conditions. The criteria for those conditions vary widely with cloud type. Evidence for significant and beneficial changes in precipitation on the ground as a result of seeding is controversial and in many cases cannot be established with confidence.

It is considered that the glaciogenic seeding of clouds formed by air flowing over mountains offers the best prospects for increasing precipitation in an economically­viable manner. These types of clouds attracted great interest in their modification because of their potential in terms of water management, i.e., the possibility of storing water in reservoirs or in the snowpack at higher elevations. There is statistical evidence that under certain conditions precipitation from supercooled orographic clouds can be increased with existing techniques. Statistical analyses of streamflow records from some long­term projects indicate that cost­ effective increases have been realized.

The use of glaciogenic agents such as silver iodide to seed supercooled cumulus clouds has produced few results of general validity. Observed responses of clouds vary widely. There are competing explanations and the questions are not yet resolved.

Seeding of convective clouds with hygroscopic materials has been shown to be adaptable to different cloud types and has produced encouraging results but is not yet an established technology.

b. Hail suppression

Well­developed glaciogenic seeding technologies have been used operationally in many parts of the world to reduce hail damage. Evaluation of the results has proved difficult and the effectiveness remains controversial.

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Attempts to seed hailstorms with hygroscopic nuclei have been made but have not given demonstrable results.

Some methods, such as hail cannons or ionization devices, have no physical basis and are not recommended.

c. Other phenomena

No confidence can be placed at this time in the use of cloud seeding to reduce the strength of typhoons and tropical storms.

Attempts to reduce lightning by seeding have not been shown to be effective.

General comments

The scientific status of weather modification, while steadily improving, still reflects limitations in the detailed understanding of cloud microphysics and precipitation formation, as well as inadequacies in accurate precipitation measurement. Governments and scientific institutions are urged to substantially increase their efforts in basic precipitation research and related programmes in weather modification. Further testing and evaluation of physical concepts and seeding strategies are critically important. The acceptance of weather modification can only be improved by increasing the numbers of well executed experiments and building the base of positive scientific results.

Governments and other agencies involved in weather modification activities should invest in relevant education and training.

Operational weather modification projects should be reviewed periodically (annually if possible) to assess whether the best practices are being used. Any new project should seek advice from experts regarding the benefits to be expected, the risks involved, the optimum techniques to be used, and the likely impacts. The advisors should be as detached as possible from the project, so their opinions can be viewed as being unbiased. It is recognized that most weather modification projects are motivated by well documented requirements, but they also have associated risks and the results may remain uncertain.

__________

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WMO STATEMENT ON WEATHER MODIFICATION

INTRODUCTION

For thousands of years people have sought to modify weather and climate so as to augment water resources and mitigate severe weather. The modern technology of weather modification was launched by the discovery in the late 1940s that supercooled cloud droplets could be converted to ice crystals by insertion of a cooling agent such as dry ice or an artificial ice nucleus such as silver iodide. Over 50 years of subsequent research have greatly enhanced our knowledge about the microphysics, dynamics and precipitation processes of natural clouds (rain, hail, snow) and the impacts of human interventions on those processes.

Weather modification generally involves two distinct activities. In the first activity, science research seeks to prove concepts and in so­doing make the effectiveness of their application certain to within given limits and with a given degree of confidence. In the second activity, operational programs seek to apply different modification methods to produce a desired outcome (more rain, less hail, fog cleared, etc.) based on their assessment of the best approaches to follow consistent with the current state of knowledge. Some operational programs also include an evaluation component, but generally only as a lower priority. Such evaluations, however, have the potential to add scientific insight.

In recent years there has been a decline in the support for weather modification research, and a tendency to move directly into operational projects. It is crucial to recognize that weather modification is still an emerging technology. Uncertainties inherent in the current technologies can only be addressed by programmes of focused research that lead to deeper understanding of the effects of cloud seeding on cloud and precipitation development.

Currently, there are dozens of nations operating hundreds of weather modification projects, particularly in arid and semi­arid regions all over the world, where the lack of sufficient water resources limits their ability to meet food, fibre, and energy demands. The purpose of this document is to present a review of the status of weather modification.

The energy involved in weather systems is so large that it is impossible to create artificially rainstorms or to alter wind patterns to bring water vapour into a region. The only credible approach to modifying weather is to take advantage of microphysical sensitivities wherein a relatively small human­induced disturbance in the system can substantially alter the natural evolution of atmospheric processes.

The ability to influence cloud microstructures has been demonstrated in the laboratory, simulated in numerical models, and verified through physical measurements in some natural systems such as fogs, layer clouds and cumulus clouds. However, direct physical evidence that precipitation, hail, lightning, or winds can be significantly modified by artificial means is limited.

The complexity and variability of clouds result in great difficulties in understanding and detecting the effects of attempts to modify them artificially. As knowledge of cloud physics and statistics and their application to weather modification has increased, new assessment criteria have evolved for evaluating cloud­seeding experiments. The development of new equipment — such as aircraft platforms with microphysical and air­motion measuring systems, radar (including Doppler and polarization capability), satellites, microwave radiometers, wind profilers, automated raingauge networks, mesoscale network stations — has introduced a new dimension. Equally important are the advances in computer systems and new algorithms that permit large quantities of data to be processed and models with more detailed description of cloud processes to be run in relatively short time.

New datasets used in conjunction with increasingly sophisticated numerical cloud models help in testing various weather modification hypotheses. Chemical and chaff tracer studies help to

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identify airflow in and out of clouds and the source of ice or hygroscopic nucleation as the seeding agent. With some of these new facilities, a better climatology of clouds and precipitation can be prepared to test seeding hypotheses prior to the commencement of weather modification projects.

If it were possible to predict precisely the precipitation from a cloud system, it would be a simple matter to detect the effect of artificial cloud seeding on that system. The expected effects of seeding, however, are almost always within the large range of natural variability (low signal­to­ noise ratio) and our ability to predict the natural behaviour is still limited.

Comparison of precipitation observed during seeded periods with that during historical periods presents problems because of climatic and other changes from one period to another. This situation has been made even more difficult with the potential inadvertent effects of mega­cities and of agricultural practices on cloud and rain formation. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence that climate change may lead to changes in global precipitation amounts as well as to spatial redistribution of precipitation. Consequently, the use of any evaluation technique must take into account and mitigate the bias introduced by these non­random effects on precipitation.

In currently accepted evaluation practice, randomization methods (target/control, crossover or single area) are considered most reliable for detecting cloud­seeding effects. Such randomized tests require a number of cases readily calculated on the basis of the natural variability of the precipitation and the magnitude of the expected effect. In the case of very low signal­to­noise ratios, experiment durations in the range of five to over ten years may be required. Confidence intervals that infer a range within which the true effect lies should be included in the statistical evaluation in order to obtain an estimate of the strength of the seeding effect. Whenever a statistical evaluation is required to establish that a significant change resulted from a given seeding activity, it must be accompanied by a physical evaluation to:

(a) Confirm that the statistically­observed change is likely due to the seeding; and

(b) Determine the capabilities of the seeding technique to produce the desired effects under various conditions. A physical evaluation is also important to gain insight into if and how the results might be transferable to another geographic area.

The effect of natural precipitation variability on the required length of an experiment can be reduced through the employment of physical predictors, which are effective in direct proportion to our understanding of the phenomenon. The search for physical predictors, therefore, holds a high priority in weather modification research. Physical predictors may consist of meteorological parameters (such as stability, wind directions, pressure gradients) or cloud quantities (such as liquid water content, updraught speeds, concentrations of large drops, ice­crystal concentration, radar reflectivity, cloud top height, and cloud horizontal extent).

Objective measurement techniques of precipitation quantities are to be preferred for testing weather modification methods. Each measurement technique having its own uncertainty, both direct ground measurements (e.g. raingauges and hail pads) and remote sensing techniques (e.g. radar, satellite) should be considered. Secondary sources such as insurance data introduce new sources of error and bias, and should not be used by themselves.

Operational programmes should be conducted in full recognition of the potential risks and benefits inherent in a technology which is not totally developed. For example, it should not be ignored that, under certain conditions, seeding may cause more hail or reduce precipitation. Properly designed and conducted operational projects seek to detect and minimize such adverse effects. Weather modification managers are encouraged to add scientifically­accepted evaluation methodologies to be undertaken by experts independent of the operators. Operational programmes should include physical measurements so the science of weather modification can benefit from the results. In spite of the cautionary notes mentioned above, it should be clear that the potential for increasing rainfall by cloud seeding exists, although the uncertainty of success is still large.

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Brief summaries of the current status of weather modification are given in the following sections. These summaries are restricted to weather modification activities that are based on accepted scientific principles and have been tested in the field.

Education and training in cloud physics, cloud chemistry, and other associated sciences should be an essential component of weather modification projects. Where the necessary capacity does not exist, advantage should be taken of facilities of other Members;

Weather modification programmes are encouraged to utilize new observational tools and numerical modelling capabilities in the design, guidance and evaluations of field projects. While some Members may not have access or resources to implement these technologies, collaboration between Member States (e.g., multinational field programmes, independent expert evaluations, education, etc.) are encouraged that could provide the necessary resources for implementing these technologies.

FOG DISPERSAL

Different techniques are being used to disperse warm (i.e., at temperatures greater than 0°C) and cold fogs. The relative occurrence of warm and cold fogs is geographically and seasonally dependent.

The thermal technique, which employs intense heat sources (such as jet engines) to warm the air directly and evaporate the fog, has been shown to be effective for short periods for dispersal of some types of warm fogs. These systems are expensive to install and to use. Another technique that has been used is to promote entrainment of dry air into the fog by the use of hovering helicopters or ground­based engines. These techniques are also expensive for routine use.

To clear warm fogs, seeding with hygroscopic materials has also been attempted. An increase in visibility is sometimes observed in such experiments, but the manner and location of the seeding and the size distribution of seeding material are critical and difficult to specify. In practice, the technique is seldom as effective as models suggest. Only hygroscopic agents should be used that pose no environmental and health problems.

Cold (supercooled) fog can be dissipated by growth and sedimentation of ice crystals. This may be induced with high reliability by seeding the fog with artificial ice nuclei from ground­based or airborne systems. This technique is in operational use at several airports and highways where there is a relatively high incidence of supercooled fog. Suitable techniques are dependent upon wind, temperature and other factors. Dry ice has commonly been used in airborne systems. Other systems employ rapid expansion of compressed gas to cool the air enough to form ice crystals. For example, at a few airports and highway locations, liquid nitrogen or carbon dioxide is being used in ground­based systems. A new technique, which has been demonstrated in limited trials, makes use of dry ice blasting to create ice crystals and promote rapid mixing within the fog. Because the effects of this type of seeding are easily measured and the results are highly predictable, randomized statistical verification generally has been considered unnecessary.

PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW) ENHANCEMENT

This section deals with those precipitation enhancement techniques that have a scientific basis and that have been the subject of research. Other non­scientific and unproven techniques that are presented from time to time should be treated with the required suspicion and caution.

Orographic mixed­phase cloud systems

In our present state of knowledge, it is considered that the glaciogenic seeding of clouds formed by air flowing over mountains offers the best prospects for increasing precipitation in an economically­viable manner. These types of clouds attracted great interest in their modification

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because of their potential in terms of water management, i.e., the possibility of storing water in reservoirs or in the snowpack at higher elevations. There is statistical evidence that under certain conditions precipitation from supercooled orographic clouds can be increased with existing techniques. Statistical analyses of streamflow records from some long­term projects indicate that cost­effective increases have been realized.

Physical studies using new observational tools and supported by numerical modelling indicate that supercooled liquid water exists in amounts sufficient to produce the observed precipitation increases and could be tapped if proper seeding technologies were applied. The processes culminating in increased precipitation have also been directly observed during seeding experiments conducted over limited spatial and temporal domains. While such observations further support the results of statistical analyses, they have, to date, been of limited scope. The cause and effect relationships have not been fully documented.

This does not imply that the problem of precipitation enhancement in such situations is solved. Much work remains to be done to strengthen the results and produce stronger statistical and physical evidence that the increases occurred over the target area and over a prolonged period of time, as well as to search for the existence of any extra­area effects. Existing methods should be improved in the identification of seeding opportunities, targeting of the seeding material, and the times and situations in which it is not advisable to seed, thus optimizing the technique and maximizing the cost effectiveness of the operations.

It should be recognized that the successful conduct of an experiment or operation is a difficult task that requires qualified scientists and operational personnel. It is difficult and expensive to fly aircraft safely in supercooled regions of clouds. It is also difficult to target the seeding agent from ground generators or from broad­scale seeding by aircraft upwind of an orographic cloud system.

Stratiform clouds

The seeding of cold stratiform clouds began the modern era of weather modification. Shallow stratiform clouds can be under certain conditions made to precipitate, often resulting in clearing skies in the region of seeding. Deep stratiform cloud systems (but still with cloud tops warmer than –20°C) associated with cyclones and fronts produce significant amounts of precipitation. A number of field experiments and numerical simulations have shown the presence of supercooled water in some regions of these clouds and there is some evidence that precipitation can be increased.

Cumuliform clouds

In many regions of the world, cumuliform clouds are the main precipitation producers. These clouds are characterized by strong vertical velocities with high condensation rates. They hold the largest condensed water contents of all cloud types and can yield the highest precipitation rates. Seeding experiments with cumuliform clouds have produced variable results. This response variability is not fully understood.

Precipitation enhancement techniques by glaciogenic seeding are utilized to affect ice phase processes while hygroscopic seeding techniques are used to affect warm rain processes. Evaluation of these techniques has utilized direct measurements with surface precipitation gauges as well as indirect radar­derived precipitation estimates. Both methods have inherent advantages and disadvantages. For example, rainfall patterns produced by cumuliform clouds have complex spatial and temporal characteristics that are difficult to resolve with raingauge networks alone.

During the last ten years there have been extensive reviews of past experiments using glaciogenic seeding. The responses to seeding seem to vary depending on changes in natural cloud characteristics and in some experiments they appear to be inconsistent with the original seeding hypothesis. Experiments involving heavy glaciogenic seeding of warm­based convective

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clouds (bases about +10°C or warmer) have produced mixed results. They were intended to stimulate updraughts through added latent heat release which, in turn, was postulated to lead to an increase in precipitation. Some experiments have suggested a positive effect on individual convective cells. However, conclusive evidence that such seeding can increase rainfall from multicell convective storms has yet to be established. Many steps in the postulated physical chain of events have not been sufficiently documented with observations or simulated in numerical modelling experiments.

In recent years, the seeding of warm and cold convective clouds with hygroscopic chemicals to augment rainfall by enhancing warm rain processes (condensation/collision­ coalescence/break­up mechanisms) has received renewed attention through model simulations and field experiments. Two methods of enhancing the warm rain process have been investigated. First, seeding with small particles (artificial CCN with mean sizes about 0.5 to 1.0 micrometers in diameter) is used to accelerate precipitation initiation by stimulating the condensation­coalescence process by favourably modifying the initial droplet spectrum at cloud base. Second, seeding with larger hygroscopic particles (about 30 micrometers in diameter) is used to accelerate precipitation development by stimulating the collision­coalescence processes. A recent experiment utilizing the latter technique indicated statistical evidence of radar estimated precipitation increases. However, the increases were not as contemplated in the conceptual model, but seemed to occur at later times (one to four hours after seeding). The cause of this apparent effect is not known.

Recent randomized seeding experiments with flares that produce small (0.5 to 1.0 micrometers in diameter) hygroscopic particles in the updraught regions of continental, mixed­ phase convective clouds have provided statistical evidence of increases in radar­estimated rainfall. The experiments were conducted in different parts of the world and the important aspect of the results was the replication of the statistical results in a different geographical region. In addition, limited physical measurements were obtained suggesting that the seeding produced a broader droplet spectrum near cloud base that enhances the formation of large drops early in the lifetime of the cloud. These measurements were supported by numerical modelling studies. Although the results are encouraging and intriguing, the reasons for the duration of the observed effects obtained with the hygroscopic particle seeding are not understood and some fundamental questions remain. Measurements of the key steps in the chain of physical events associated with hygroscopic particle seeding are needed to confirm the seeding conceptual models and the range of effectiveness of these techniques in increasing precipitation from warm and mixed­phase convective clouds.

Despite the statistical evidence of radar estimated precipitation changes in individual storms in both glaciogenic and hygroscopic techniques, there is no evidence that such seeding can economically increase rainfall over significant areas.

HAIL SUPPRESSION

Hail causes substantial economic loss to crops and property. Many hypotheses have been proposed to suppress hail and operational seeding activities have been undertaken in many countries. Physical hypotheses include the concepts of beneficial competition (creating many additional hail embryos that effectively compete for the supercooled water), trajectory lowering (intended to reduce the size of hailstones) and premature rainout. Following these concepts, seeding methods concentrate on the peripheral regions of large storm systems and, in particular, the new growth zones located on the upwind forward flank, rather than on the main updraught.

While progress has been made, our understanding of storms is not yet sufficient to allow confident prediction of the effects of seeding on hail. The possibilities of increasing or decreasing hail and rain in some circumstances have been discussed in the scientific literature. Supercell storms have been recognized as a particular problem. Numerical cloud model simulations have provided insights into the complexity of the hail process and improved our ability to delineate favourable times, locations and seeding amounts for effective modification treatments, but the simulations are not yet accurate enough to provide final answers.

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A few randomized trials have been conducted for hail suppression using such measures as hail mass, kinetic energy, hailstone number and area of hailfall. These randomized trails have not been conclusive. However, most attempts at evaluation have involved non­randomized operational programmes. In the latter, historical trends in crop hail damage have often been used, sometimes with target and upwind control areas, but such methods can be unreliable. Large reductions have been claimed by many groups. However, the weight of scientific evidence to date is inconclusive, neither affirming nor denying the efficacy of hail suppression activities. This situation is motivation for operational programmes to strengthen the physical and evaluation components of their efforts.

In recent years, anti­hail activities using cannons to produce loud noises have re­emerged. There is neither a scientific basis nor a credible hypothesis to support such activities.

Significant advances in technology during the last decade have opened new avenues to document and better understand the evolution of severe thunderstorms and hail. New experiments on storm organization and the evolution of precipitation including hail are needed.

OTHER PHENOMENA

Tropical cyclones contribute significantly to the annual rainfall of many areas, but they are also responsible for considerable damage to property and for a large loss of life. Hurricane modification experiments that aimed at reducing the maximum winds were conducted in the 1960s and early 1970s but without positive results. There is no generally accepted conceptual model suggesting that hurricanes can be modified.

While modification of tornadoes or of damaging winds from severe storms is desirable for safety and economic reasons, there is presently no accepted physical hypothesis to accomplish such a goal.

There has been some interest in the suppression of lightning. Motivation includes reducing occurrences of forest fires ignited by lightning and diminishing this hazard during the launching of space vehicles. The concept usually proposed involves reducing the electric fields within thunderstorms so that they do not become strong enough for lightning discharges to occur. To do this, chaff (metallized plastic fibres) or silver iodide has been introduced into thunderstorms. The chaff is postulated to provide points for corona discharge which reduces the electric field to values below those required for lightning, whereas augmenting the ice­crystal concentration is postulated to change the rate of charge build up and the charge distribution within the clouds. Field experiments have used these concepts and limited numerical modelling results have supported them. The results have no statistical significance.

INADVERTENT WEATHER MODIFICATION

There is ample evidence (as shown in the WMO­IUGG IAPSAG report) that widespread biomass burning and agricultural and industrial activities modify local and sometimes regional weather conditions. There are observations of natural hygroscopic seeding, making cloud drops become larger and accelerating the warm rain process.

Land­use changes (e.g., urbanization and deforestation) also modify local and regional weather. Air quality, visibility, surface and low­level wind, humidity and temperature, and cloud and precipitation processes are all affected by large urban areas. Documentation of the inadvertent effects of human activities on clouds and precipitation may provide additional insights into the theoretical basis for advertent (deliberate) attempts to modify the weather.

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ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION

Weather modification is sometimes considered by countries when there is a need to improve the economy in a particular branch of activity (for example, increase in water supply for agriculture or power generation) or to reduce the risks that may be associated with dangerous events (frosts, fogs, hail, lightning, thunderstorms, etc.). Besides the present uncertainties associated with the capability to reach such goals, it is necessary to consider the impacts on other activities or population groups. Economic, social, ecological and legal aspects should be taken into account. Thus, it is important to consider all the important complexity and recognize the variety of possible impacts, during the design stage of an operation.

Legal aspects may be particularly important when weather modification activities are performed in the proximity of borders between different countries. However, any legal system aimed at promoting or regulating weather modification must recognize that scientific knowledge is still incomplete.

The implications of any projected long­term weather modification operation on ecosystems need to be assessed. Such studies could reveal changes that need to be taken into account. During the operational period, monitoring of possible environmental effects should be undertaken as a check against anticipated impacts.

__________

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WMO GUIDELINES FOR THE PLANNING OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES

1. These guidelines are addressed to Members requesting advice or assistance on weather modification activities. They include recommendations for research experiments that are based on present knowledge gained through the results of worldwide theoretical studies as well as laboratory and field experiments. A synthesis of the main basic concepts and main results obtained in the weather modification programmes is given in the WMO Statement on the Status of Weather Modification. Guidelines for research experiments, as well as recommendations for operational programs are provided. This Statement was revised under a review process requested by CAS­ XIV and approved September 2007.

2. Members wishing to develop activities in the field of weather modification should be aware of the uncertainties outlined in the WMO Statement on the Status of Weather Modification.

3. Experimental programmes should be planned on a long­term basis because the precipitation variability is generally much greater than the increases or decreases claimed for artificial weather modification. Care should be taken to engage qualified operators. It is strongly recommended that an objective evaluation be performed by a group independent of the operational one. The use of appropriate numerical models may help in reducing the time required to evaluate the project.

4. Acceptance of the results of a weather modification program depends on the degree of the scientific objectivity and the consistency with which the experiment was carried out and the degree to which this is demonstrated. Also important are the physical plausibility of the experiment, the degree to which bias is excluded from the conduct and analysis of the experiment, and the degree of statistical significance achieved. There have been few weather modification experiments that have met the requirements of the scientific community with respect to these general criteria. However, there are exciting possibilities now for making progress in our understanding of weather modification issues using modern research tools, including advanced radar, new aircraft instruments, powerful numerical models, and sophisticated statistical techniques.

5. WMO recommends that a detailed examination of the suitability of the site for cloud seeding should be conducted similar to that done in the Precipitation Enhancement Project, for which WMO reports are available. To increase the chances of success in a specific situation, it should be verified through preliminary studies that:

(a) The climatology of clouds and precipitation at the site indicates the possibility of favourable conditions for weather modification;

(b) Conditions are suitable for the available modification techniques; (c) Modeling studies support the proposed weather modification hypothesis; (d) For the frequency with which suitable conditions occur, the changes resulting from the

modification technique can be detected at an acceptable level of statistical significance; (e) An operational activity can be carried out at a cost acceptably lower than the socio­

economic benefit that is likely to result. All prospective studies require expert judgment and the results are expected to depend on the site chosen and on the season.

6. Weather modification should be viewed as a part of an integrated water resources management strategy. Instant drought relief is difficult to achieve. In particular, if there are no clouds, precipitation cannot be artificially stimulated. It is likely that the opportunities for precipitation enhancement will be greater during periods of normal or above normal rainfall than during dry periods.

7. WMO recommends that operational cloud seeding projects for precipitation modification be designed to allow statistical and physical evaluation of the results of seeding. If a rigorous evaluation is desired, then some randomization of the seed/control cases should be incorporated (for example, by seeding one in three cases). The physical measurements should include

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characterization of the seeding material. Operational weather modification projects should be reviewed periodically (annually if possible) to assess whether the best practices are being used. Any new project should seek advice from experts regarding the benefits to be expected, the risks involved, the optimum techniques to be used, and the likely impacts. The advisors should be as detached as possible from the project, so their opinions can be viewed as being unbiased.

8. The Members should be aware that the scope of efforts involved in the design, conduct or evaluation of a weather modification programme precludes the WMO Secretariat from giving detailed advice. However, if requested, the Secretary­General may assist (by obtaining advice from scientists on other weather modification projects or with special expertise) on the understanding that:

(a) Costs will be met by the requesting country; (b) The Organization can take no responsibility for the consequences of the advice given by

any invited scientist or expert; (c) The Organization accepts no legal responsibility in any dispute that may arise.

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ATTACHMENT 6

Proposal for GOS­GAW Pilot Project

(Submitted by D/AREP & AD/WWW)

1. BACKGROUND

As part of its WIGOS decision, Cg­XV (Appendix 1) requested several pilot projects: – one for CBS and CAS to undertake a joint pilot project to enhance coordination of GOS and GAW in WIGOS/WIS. The high level WIGOS/WIS goal is to establish a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems with ensured access to its component observing systems' data and products through interoperable arrangements. WIGOS is the system of observing systems and WIS provides the access through the interoperable arrangements. WIGOS/WIS will address all WMO Programme requirements, ensure availability of required information, meet data quality standards, and facilitate access in real/quasi­real time as well as to archived information. The CBS/CAS Joint Pilot Project will make an important contribution in the development of WIGOS/WIS.

Factors bearing on planning:

Ø CAS MG meeting to be held 24­26 September 2007, Oslo and planned for Geneva in September 2008

Ø CBS MG meeting in August 2008 Ø EC WIGOS/WIS Working Group Meeting December 2007 or January 2008 Ø CAS OPAG EPAC Meeting March 2009

2. JOINT GOS­GAW PILOT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT To accelerate implementation of WIGOS/WIS, the GOS­GAW pilot project (including relevant WIS items) mandated by CGXV should, as a first step, develop a draft project plan through an “ad­hoc CBS & CAS experts group on WIGOS”. Follow­on steps envision joint meetings of CAS and CBS management groups (MGs) and appropriate OPAGs to finalize the project plan and implement it as well as reporting to the MGs and the EC WIGOS/WIS Working Group.

3. PROPOSED SCHEDULE AND ACTIONS:

i. Early August 2007, D/AREP and D/WWW consult by email with the CAS and CBS Presidents, OPAG chairs, explaining the proposal and assign responsibilities for a joint document to be submitted to the CAS MG meeting jointly by AREP and WWW.

ii. 24­26 September 2007 at CAS MG Meeting Oslo. CBS MG would be represented by President of CBS and AD/WWW. Expected decision: (i) initiate development of a draft project plan by approving terms of reference of the “ad­hoc CBS & CAS experts group on WIGOS” and (ii) and approve a joint CAS/CBS MG meeting in 2008, possibly July.

iii. October 2007­ Geneva meeting of the “ad­hoc CBS & CAS experts group on WIGOS”: a. Purpose: Produce first draft of a joint CAS­CBS GAW­GOS project plan for review

by both MGs and EC WG on WIGOS­WIS meeting tentatively planned for December 07 or January 08.

b. Who: A small group of no more than six persons – three from each Commission Ø From CBS, it could be OPAG­IOS Chair, ET­EGOS Chair and co­chair of the

OPAG­ISS, Steve Foreman a WIS Expert. Ø From CAS, it could be Chair OPAG­EPAC, chair of GAW Expert Team on

NRT­CDD and Chair of the Expert Team on World Data Centres.

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iv. February 2008 Geneva – 2nd Meeting of “ad­hoc CBS & CAS experts group on WIGOS”. Complete the joint CBS­CAS project plan for GAW­GOS for EC WG WIGOS/WIS review and EC LX guidance (June 2008).

v. July 2008: Joint meeting of CBS & CAS MG (accordance with item ii) Purpose: Incorporate EC LX guidance and decisions into final joint plan....

vi. Implement the project by November 2010 reporting to CAS and CBS and EC WG and finally Cg­XVI(May 2011)

Appendix 1 to Attachment 6

Excerpt from Cg­XV Document 7.4.3

TOWARDS ENHANCED INTEGRATION BETWEEN WMO OBSERVING SYSTEMS

Roadmap

7.4.3.17 Congress agreed that planning and implementation of the integration process should proceed in phases defined by the annual meetings of the Council in order to assure oversight, review and direction. The process foreseen is one where planning and implementation of an integrated WMO observing system and of the WIS would culminate with Cg­XVI (2011) adopting improvements towards strengthening the WMO programme structure and the system of technical commissions, which would be positioned to extend the benefits of the integration into the service and application components of the overall WMO Programmes at both the national and international levels.

7.4.3.18 Several “Pilot Projects”, as proposed by the EC Task Team, should be designed to test concepts, identify problem areas, and to help in elaborating the Plan. Possible candidate Pilot Projects include:

(a) Integration of WWW/GOS and GAW; (b) Initiation of a Global Hydrologic network addressing a GCOS requirement; (c) Elaborating the underpinning/crosscutting role and responsibilities of the Instruments and

Methods of Observation Programme; (d) Integration of AMDAR into the WMO global observing systems; (e) Integration of marine meteorological and other appropriate oceanic observations into the

WMO global observing systems.

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ATTACHMENT 7

List of Possible CAS/CAeM Collaborations

(Submitted by President CAeM ­ C. McCleod)

The Rapporteur on Aviation and the Environment, and other Expert Teams and Groups may be keenly interested in research activities of CAS.

Phenomena to be addressed here are as follows:

• Convection: For capacity planning, forecasts (even probabilistic statements would be helpful) of areas of deep convection at fairly high spatial and temporal resolution are needed (1­ 2km in the horizontal <1 km in the vertical, 15 min time interval) for the next 1­3 hours, with an outlook at a somewhat coarser resolution for at least 6­12 hours. Any research into short­range ensemble forecasts of deep convection, probability density functions of phenomena such as severe turbulence and large hail associated with such convection, will be of particular interest to aviation. High temporal and spatial resolution of AMDAR profiles (wind, temperature, and in some cases humidity) could be obtained from regional ad national programmes in support of such research.

• Gravity waves and their influence on atmospheric turbulence affecting aviation. There is growing evidence that gravity waves, emanating from mesoscale processes, convection or orography, serves as trigger mechanisms for severe turbulence by locally altering shear and stability conditions with the result of lowering the Richardson number to values below the accepted threshold of about .25.

• Very low visibility and ceiling forecasts: This age­old problem in aviation is receiving renewed attention due to the effect it has on the acceptance capacity of busy hub airports, and new approaches (combinations of column models, aerosol models, statistical methods and use of high­density local observing networks) are all of interest to this problem

• Heavy precipitation: Several accidents have recently highlighted the dangers associated with flooded runways. Again, nowcasting and extended outlooks into the accurate prediction of episodes of heavy precipitation are needed.

• Sand­and dust storms: Although little evidence is available on major air disasters related to this subject, the effects of sand­and dust storms on the regularity and safety of aviation in semi­arid climates are considered serious

• Space weather: Forecasts of major solar activity and consequent problems for navigation, communication and surveillance of air traffic are equally critical as the risk to occupational health and safety of air crews with extended exposure to strong cosmic radiation in particular during flights on polar routes.

• Volcanic Ash: Joint research efforts with volcanologists, geophysicists and acoustic research are expected to support the detection of volcanic eruptions. Full aerosol models (rather than the currently used, “passive” transport models would be seen as useful for the prediction of trajectories and depletion of volcanic ash clouds, as would be methods to detect such tracers from satellite data.

• Cloud physics and radiation: The impact of aviation on climate change may depend to some extent on the radiative properties of cirrus clouds forming from persistent contrails. Firming

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up of results of earlier studies on the extent, optical thickness and life time of such contrail­ generated cirrus would be urgently needed to adequately assess the impact of aviation.

• Atmospheric chemistry would be requested to address the complex processes of ozone generation and /or destruction by nitrous oxides from aircraft engines at different heights in the atmosphere, and its effects both on air quality, radiative forcing and UV radiative fluxes.

• Training: Despite the very specialized nature of aviation meteorology when it comes to applications for specialized user groups, basic scientific methods are shared with general nowcasting, climatology and numerical weather prediction research. AEMP would be highly interested in participating in training modules developed for these subjects for adding to its training activities, the web site and the planning of future training activities in order to maximize efficiency.

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ATTACHMENT 8

AREP Management Report

(Submitted by L. Barrie D/AREP)

Since the last CAS Management Group Meeting September 2006 marking my appointment as Director of AREP through a year centred on the Fifteenth WMO Congress much change has taken place. The AREP Department is responsible in the WMO Secretariat for administering and implementing activities/programmes with the expert guidance of the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences consist of the Global Atmosphere Watch programme (including support for major environmental conventions), the World Weather Research Programme including THORPEX, weather modification research activities and a WMO/IUGG Aerosol Precipitation Assessment

Practical resource and administrative information

In the past year since September 2006, AREP has been working under severe personnel shortage. The Chief of Environment post leading 2 scientific officers and a secretary was missing. Since July 31 2007 the post of Chief of WWRP (including THORPEX) leading 2 Scientific Officers and a secretary has been vacant and will remain vacant until March 2008. In April AREP suffered the lose of David Burridge who retired as Director of the THORPEX component of WWRP supported by a trust fund.

In Cg­XV Document 8.2, the four year budget for 2004­2007 was nominally 15.0 M CHF and the proposed 2008­2011 (zero no­growth option) is 13.6 M CHF. This amounts to a decrease of ­9.3%. In 2008 the AREP staff is expected to total 12 people (1 D1, 5 P5, 1 P4, 1 G6, 3 G5 and 1 G librarian). The estimated 2008­2011 salary costs for are ~ 10 CHF. This leaves 3.56 M CHF for non­salary. The Commission for Atmospheric Sciences Quadrennial meeting is a costly event that subtracts from this leaving on the order of 0.7 M CHF per year for general non­salary budget split between two programmes.

Major administrative activities in the past year

Despite staff shortages, AREP managed to rise to the administrative challenge of WMO introducing a new RBM system and a Strategic Plan (SP) linked to a Strategic Operating Plan (SOP) and Budget and requiring definition of Departmental activities in that framework. We also

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met the January 12 deadline for submitting the AREP Cg­XV document. In April 2006 three major constituent body meetings were held: the JSSC for OPAG­EPAC at which the GAW Strategic Plan for 2008­2015 (really a technical implementation plan) was finalized (Doc 3.1(2)), the JSC for OPAG­WWRP at which the road toward a WWRP­THORPEX Strategic Plan was designed and initiated (see Doc 4.1(2)) and the 6th THORPEX ICSC meeting at which the programme was considerably streamlined and the responsibility for administration of the programme passed to AREP managers. The ICSC of THORPEX recommended in April 2007 (see Doc 4.2) that the way forward should be to combine the administrative oversight of WWRP and THORPEX in the duties of the Chief of WWRP Division (currently not­staffed) and that case of his/her absence into the duties of D/AREP.

The month of May was spent on Cg­XV and Executive Council business. Since that time considerable time has been spent responding to the restructuring demanded of WMO if it is to meet the requirements of the RBM system approved by Congress.

In Spring 2007, a major cross­cutting initiative between programmes on Disaster Risk Reduction saw AREP assigned the responsibility for the Shanghai HEWS (Doc 6.2) with one Scientific officer contributing substantively to implementing the effort and D/AREP participating in the DRR Steering Committee.

Future Administrative Challenges

i. The restructuring of WMO into four Bureaus focusing on Weather Services, Climate and Water, the WMO Integrated Global Observing System and Research and moving the atmospheric chemistry, weather and climate research agenda forward through the Research Bureau while bridging strongly to the WIGOS Bureau is the main challenge. It is also an opportunity.

ii. The finalization of a WWRP­THORPEX implementation plan that is meshed with the activities of WCRP, the GAW programme and WIGOS and, very importantly well represented in the WMO SOP through links to 3 Objectives, 5 Strategic Thrusts and 11 Expected Results.

iii. The organization of several major meetings including CAS­XV autumn 2009.

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