natural hazards and disasters in latin america

Natural Hazards 6: 131-159, 1992. 131 © 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

Natural Hazards and Disasters in Latin America

H. D A N I E L STILLWELL Department of Geography and Planning, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, U.S.A.

(Received: 11 April 1990; in final form: 18 March 1992)

Abstract. Natural hazards and disasters occur widely throughout the world. Disasters can be costly both in terms of human lives and property and ecosystem disruption. Higher death toils in developing nations may be the result of poverty, rapid population growth, urbanization, and inadequate communication facilities. The purpose of this study is to show pattems of major catastrophic events in Latin America so that their impacts can be evaluated and compared.

Latin America was selected because of the variety of recent events commanding wide attention: earthquakes in Mexico, volcanic eruptions in Colombia, hurricanes and floods in Haiti, and drought and mudflows in Brazil. Spatial and temporal aspects of natural disasters are presented in nine tables and 21 maps. The tables give selected disaster data by country for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and atmospheric disturbances from the 16th century to 1989. Most data is derived from disasters occurring during the 20th century and include number of events, people killed, people affected, and U.S.$ damage. Maps show environmental settings for disasters and allow detailed comparison among countries. Floods account for the greatest number of major events in the most countries, earthquakes cause the most deaths and damage, while droughts affect the most people. Peru surpasses all others in susceptibility to major disasters. Assessment of vulnerability to hazards, improved economic opportunities, and an increased social and political concern for poor people should help reduce future losses from natural disasters in Latin America.

Key words. Natural disasters, Latin America, marginality, vulnerability.

1. Introduction

N a t u r a l haza rds and d isas ters have b e e n r ecen t ly rece iv ing much a t t en t ion in

b o o k s , pe r iod ica l s , and the news med ia . This m a y b e due to i m p r o v e d m o n i t o r i n g

and c o m m u n i c a t i o n s r a t h e r t han to an inc rease in na tu r a l p h e n o m e n a . In the pas t

two decades , a lmos t 3 mi l l ion l ives have b e e n lost , 820 mi l l ion p e o p l e have b e e n

a f fec ted , and up to U.S .$100 b i l l ion w o r t h o f p r o p e r t y has b e e n d a m a g e d by

var ious na tu r a l c a t a s t rophes w o r l d w i d e ( A d v i s o r y C o m m i t t e e , I D N H R , 1987, 1).

G r o w i n g conce rn ove r this p r o b l e m p r o m p t e d the U n i t e d Na t ions G e n e r a l As -

s emb ly to des igna te the 1990s as the I n t e r n a t i o n a l D e c a d e for N a t u r a l D i sa s t e r

R e d u c t i o n ( A d v i s o r y C o m m i t t e e , I D N H R , 1989). F ive goals were e s t ab l i shed ,

viz. (1) to i m p r o v e the capac i ty for mi t iga t ing the effects of na tu r a l d isas ters ,

espec ia l ly ea r ly -warn ing sys tems in d e v e l o p i n g coun t r i e s , (2) to devise guide l ines

and s t ra teg ies for app ly ing exis t ing k n o w l e d g e , (3) to fos te r scientif ic and eng inee r -

ing e n d e a v o r s to r educe losses, (4) to d i s semina te i n f o r m a t i o n for assessment ,

132 H. DANIEL STILLWELL

prediction, prevention, and mitigation of natural disasters, and (5) to encourage programs of technical assistance and education tailored to specific hazards and locations. Focus will be placed on developing countries to minimize social and economic disruption from disasters. To date, 60 nations have become involved in IDNHR activities.

Since 1965, the International Geographical Union's Commission on Man and Environment has been playing a central role in stimulating and coordinating natural hazard and disaster research activities of geographers worldwide. Examples of over 40 projects in 17 countries include air pollution in Mexico, hurricanes in Puerto Rico, floods in Bangladesh, and drought in Brazil (Burton et al., 1978). The IGU is working with the International Council of Scientific Unions in IDNDR research to indentify and assess environmental and human factors of natural hazards, especially in developing nations.

The Significance of Natural Disasters

Natural disasters widely occur throughout the world. Floods, the most widespread and destructive of disasters, account for 40% of all events. Most deaths are caused by tropical cyclones with their accompanying storm surges and flooding. Cyclones comprise 20% of events. Earthquakes and droughts each make up 15% of all natural disasters (Burton et al., 1978). Disasters can be dramatic and costly both in terms of human lives and property and ecosystem disruption. Losses are particularly devastating to developing nations where a disaster can have a profound impact on their economy, even though dollar losses may not be great. Higher death tolls in developing nations may be the result of rapid population growth, urbanization, inadequate communication facilities, and poverty.

Poor people in poor countries are most vulnerable to disasters. There are over 3000 deaths per disaster in low-income countries compared with 500 in high-income countries (Wijkman and Timberlake, 1986, 6, 28).

Many of the poor are living in marginal areas such as crowded shanty towns on hillsides, flood plains, or coastal lowlands where there is a great susceptibility to loss. The steep favelas settlement above Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and the tidal mud flats known as La Perla in San Juan, Puerto Rico and Guasmo in Guayaquil, Ecuador are grim reminders of poverty.

3. Purpose of this Study

The present study fills a need for the spatial analysis of natural disasters, specifi- cally, to show patterns of long-term losses by hazard type. This enables a broad comparison and assessment of risk among various regions, and may aid in ac- complishing goals of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. Latin America was selected as the study region for this paper because of the variety of recent events commanding wide attention: earthquakes in Mexico,

NATURAL HAZARDS AND DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA 133

volcanic eruptions in Colombia, hurricanes and floods in Haiti, and drought and mudflows in Brazil. The recent availability of disaster data and computer mapping techniques encouraged the development of this study which may be expanded into an annotated world atlas of natural disasters. The publication Disaster History prepared for the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (1988), presents significant data on major disasters worldwide, from 1900 to the present. It lists by country and disaster type the number of people killed, the number affected, and the U.S.$ damage to property, thus providing the major data base for this study. Disaster History only reflects reported disasters to which the Office responded. Therefore, some disasters, such as drought or desertification which develop slowly and insidiously, are either slighted or omitted.

4. Definitions and Background Research

Natural hazard involves the potential for damage or loss that exists in the presence of a vulnerable human community. It is usually associated with geophysical processes that are an integral part of the environment. For example, an earthquake- prone area often lies on the edge of moving tectonic plates. Natural hazard can also be dependent upon the organization and values of society which control the degree to which risk may be reduced (Hewitt, 1983).

Natural disaster involves an extreme physical event, such as an earthquake, which disrupts normal life of a vulnerable human community (Cisin and Clark, 1962). Disaster is basically an expression of hazard, but not always with a direct cause/effect relation. The state of human society plays a crucial role in evaluating disaster. Although the frequency of and vulnerability to natural disasters is increas- ing in both developed and developing countries, the latter are suffering more from disasters.

Susman and co-authors (1983, 264) define vulnerability as

the degree to which different classes in society are differentially at risk, both in terms of the probability of occurrence of an extreme physical event and the degree to which the community absorbs the effects of extreme physical events and helps different classes to recover.

Overpopulation, unemployment, poverty, decreasing self-reliance through urbanization, and misuse of capital and natural resources all contribute to vulnerability.

The continual process of impoverishment which results in the active underdevelopment of poor classes by richer ones is known as marginalization. It occurs when people suffer from change imposed and controlled from outside their community and is a basic cause of vulnerability. Marginalization is

widely seen as a continual process of impoverishment based on a world economy which perpetuates technological dependency and unequal exchange (Susman et al., 1983, 277).

A plethora of research on natural hazards and disasters has been accumulating during the past three decades. Mitchell (1974) identified five principle areas of natural hazard research:


(1) accessing the extent of human occupance of hazard zones, (2) identifying human adjustments to hazard, (3) studying human perception of hazard, (4) describing processes of adopting hazard adjustments, (5) estimating optimal adjustments and social consequences.

With respect to natural disasters, two major approaches seem to dominate. One approach, called 'the dominant view' by Hewitt (1983), emphasizes the geophysical processes underlying natural disasters. It involves monitoring and predicting, risk assessment and zoning, and emergency planning and relief. Expertise is provided by the physical sciences and engineering, such as works of Scheidegger (1975) and Keller (1976). This approach assumes that technology can solve most hazard/disaster problems, but it is restricted mainly to the developed countries.

Another approach emphasizes the human/environment relation of natural disasters as seen by cultural geographers and other social scientists. It is based on the assumption that a natural hazard can only exist in the presence of a vulnerable human community and that natural disasters are characteristic rather than acciden- tal features of places and societies (Hewitt, 1983). This approach also recognizes that recent disasters occur in conjunction with major social change and environmental impact, and therefore it is most applicable to the developing countries. Nature, technology, and society interact in a manner which either breeds vulnerability or resilience to disaster; in periods of rapid development, societies become peculiarly vulnerable to disasters (Burton et al., 1968, 1978). Socio-economic conditions play a major role in the impact of natural disasters (Echevarria, 1986). Quarantelli (1978) focused attention on sociological research themes, especially the responses to disaster at the community and organizational level. Developing societies may gain strength from a disaster, thereby improving their condition.

Natural hazards management was the topic for a regional study of South Amer- ica in a special 1982 issue of GeoJournal 6(2). Methodology stressed the human- environment relation approach, for example, 'Ecology of hazardousness' (Hills, 1982, 151) which states the main thesis

• . . in many parts of South America, the socio-economic condition of the population is such that in many respects the people are a disaster waiting to happen.

In other words, underdevelopment breeds vulnerability to hazards. Another study, 'Drought, demography, and destitution' (Schneider, 1982) blames the crisis in the Norte Chico region of Chile on persisting patterns of economic exploitation and social structures.

A variety of working papers stressing the human-environment theme of natural hazards has been issued by the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Infor- mation Center at Boulder, CO. Specific topics dealing with Latin America include 'Human impact of the Managua earthquake disaster' (Kates, 1973) and 'The Nifio as a natural hazard: its role in the cultural complexity of the Peruvian coast' (Lischka 1983).

N A T U R A L HAZARDS AND DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA 135

5. Classification and Variables

Natural hazards can be classified on the basis of their origin: within the Earth, such as earthquakes and volcanoes; on the Earth's surface, such as landslides and subsidence; and above the Earth, such as violent storms and fog. Some hazards share two origins. Floods, drought, and fire interface with the atmosphere and hydrobiosphere.

Natural disasters may have single or multiple causes. A volcanic eruption or earthquake may trigger an avalanche which, in turn, may cause a mudflow and flood. Multiple cause also involves the human element, so much a part of loss in the developing nations as mentioned earlier. The conditions of poor people living on dangerous ground, in unsafe buildings, and with fragile lifelines can magnify the impact of disasters.

An event may greatly influence the politics and economy of a region. The response to a natural disaster is largely determined by the political relations within a country and between that country and the international community (Bommer, 1985). For example, recovery from the 23 December 1972 earthquake in Managua, Nicaragua, was poorly managed by the Somoza government. This condition subse- quently contributed to the success of the Sandinistas in 1979 (Claxton, 1986; Kreimer, 1978). A series of landslides following an earthquake in northeast Ecu- ador on 5 March 1987 ruptured the trans-Ecuador oil pipefine, the nation's prime economic asset, and caused U.S.$1.5 billion damage (Advisory Committee, IDNHR, 1987, 35). In addition, 1000 lives were lost, 3000 homes destroyed and 150 000 people affected, mostly in rural or marginal urban areas where poverty abounds. Falling oil prices in 1986 caused a trade deficit, reducing Ecuador's ability to handle the disaster.

An event may be mitigated by technological and economic conditions. For example, low drought losses in Sonora and Puebla, Mexico, were associated with widespread use of irrigation, fertilizers, and improved seeds as well as land ownership in large private farms (Liverman, 1990).

Several variables are useful in comparing and evaluating natural disasters. Physi- cal variables include the amount of energy released by the event, the spatial extent of damage to the ecosystem, and temporal characteristics such as frequency of occurrence, speed of onset, and duration period. Cultural variables include loss of life, injury, loss or damage to property, and disruption of social systems, as illustrated above. The present study draws on most of these physical and cultural variables to analyze natural disasters in Latin America.

6. The Study Area

Latin America provides a good laboratory for the study of natural hazards and disasters. Its land masses stretch along a north-south axis largely within the tropics.

136

Table I. Selected earthquakes*

H. DANIEL STILLWELL

Date Location Richter Deaths Injuries Damage scale (U.S. $1,000)

4 Feb 1797 Ecuador-Quito, Riobamba 40 000 13 Aug 1868 Peru/Chile 25 000 16 Aug 1868 Colombia/Ecuador 70 000 16 Aug 1906 Chile-Valparaiso 8.6 1 500 100 000 14 Jan 1907 Jamaica-Kingston 1 200 24 Jan 1939 Chile-Chillan 7.8 30 000 58 500 920 000 10 Nov 1946 Peru-Quiches 1 400 5 Aug 1949 Ecuador-Pelileo, Ambato 6.8 6 000 20 000 6 May 1951 E1 Salvador-Jacuapa 6.2 i 000

21 May 1960 Chile-Concepcion a 8.9 6 000 3 000 550 000 31 May 1970 Peru-Mt Huascaran b 7.8 66 800 150 000 530 000 23 Dec 1972 Nicaragua-Managua ° 6.2 10 000 20 000 845 000

4 Feb 1976 Guatemala-Guatemala City d 7.5 23 000 77 000 1 000 000 13 Dec 1979 Colombia-Pacific coast 7.9 800 1 500 extreme 5 Mar 1985 Chile-Valparaiso e 7.8 180 2 483 1 500 000

19 Sep 1985 Mexico-Mexico City 8.1 9 500 30 200 4 000 000 10 Oct 1986 E1 Salvador-San Salvador ~ 6.5 1 100 20 000 1 030 000 5 Mar 1987 Ecuador-Quito g 7.3 1 000 1 500 000

a Most severe quake recorded, triggered Japan tsunami, 2 million homeless. b Triggered major avalanche, 3 million affected, 186 000 homes lost ° Three quarters of population homeless, 400 000 affected a Fourteen towns destroyed, 1.2 million homeless, 3.8 million affected e 500 000 homeless, 1 million affected f One fifth of population homeless, 500 000 affected g 400 000 affected, major oil pipeline damaged Note: blank spaces indicate no data available. Sources: Office of USFDA (1988); Berz (1988); Meyers (1976); NGDC (1979, 1982). *Data for Tables I - IV represent events involving 1000 or more people killed, or 1 million or more people affected, or U.S.$1 billion or more damage.

This allows the interplay of maritime and continental air masses, often resulting in climatic anomalies such as E1 Nifio described in the next section.

The Sierra Madre-Andean spine, a product of collision between structural plates and part of the Pacific 'ring of fire', has long been the scene of devastating volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and landslides. In fact, the world's most disastrous avalanche and mudflow, triggered by an earthquake, occurred on Mt Huasca- ran, Peru on 31 May 1970, burying the town of Yungay with a loss of 25 000 lives (Cluff, 1971, 511). A total of almost 70 000 deaths was reported for the affected area of 83 000 km 2. Then, in April 1974, the most massive rockslide on record buried several villages at Mayunmarca in the Mantaro Valley, Peru. One billion cubic meters of sandstone and marl descended 1500 vertical meters in four minutes! (Whittow, 1979, 150).

During this century, Latin America has experienced a considerable number of major natural disasters: 15 earthquakes, 6 volcanic eruptions, 7 mass movements, 12 floods, 10 hurricanes, and at least 7 major episodes of drought (see Tables I - IV). Since 1960, almost 300 disaster events have taken almost 300 000 lives for

N A T U R A L H A Z A R D S A N D DIS AS T E R S IN L A T I N A M E R I C A

Table II. Selected volcanic eruptions

137

Date Location Dea ths Notes

1541 Guatemala - Volc~in de A g u a 1 300 1660 P e r u - O m a t e 1 000 1812 St Vincent - La Soufri~re 1 600 1877 Ecuador - Mt Cotopaxi 1 000

8 Apr 1902 Guatemala - Santa Mafia 1 000 8 May 1902 St Vincent - La Soufri~re 1 565 8 May 1902 Mart inique - Mt Pel6e 29 000

28 Mar 1982 Mexico - E1 Chichdn 2 000 13 Nov 1985 Colombia - Nevado del Ruiz 21 800 25 Mar 1988 ( " renewed activity)

St Pierre destroyed Huge volcanic Cloud Armero buffed by lahar $1 billion damage , 5000 injured, 7700 homeless

Sources: Office of U S F D A (1988); World Map of Natural Hazards (1978).

an average of 1000 deaths per disaster (Wijkman and Timberlake, 1987, 28). Earthquakes have killed over 10 000 people each in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru, all situated along the subduction zone of the Cocos and Nazca Plates (Figure 1).

6. Spatial Characteristics

Selected natural disasters are mapped in Figures 1 and 2 and annotated in Tables I-IV. They represent major historic events as well as recent ones. Statistical data may differ among sources for numerous reasons. Some disasters occur in remote areas and are not well reported, whereas others are so widely spread that it is difficult to establish direct cause and effect. Where massive burial or flooding occurs, deaths can only be estimated. Follow-up data to 'injured' or 'missing' may

Table III. Selected mass movements

Date Location Dea ths Notes

1938 to 1968 Mexico - Mexico City Dec 1941 Peru - Huaraz 5 000 10 Jan 1962 Peru - Mt Huascaran 3 500 11 Jan 1966 Brazil - Rio de Janeiro 350 31 May 1970 Peru - Mt Huascaran 66 800

25 Apr 1974 Peru - Mayunmarca 310

13 Nov 1985 Colombia-Axinero 21 800

22 Feb 1988 Brazil - Rio de Janeiro 66

Land subsidence of lake beds Lahar destroyed most of Huaraz Avalanche and mudflow Landslide, 4 million affected Largest avalanche recorded, town of Yungay destroyed, over 3 million affected incl. over 143 000 injured Largest rock slide recorded, over $21 million damage Lahar f rom volcanic eruption, $1 billion damage Wors t mudfiow disaster for the city, left 50 000 homeless

Sources: Office of U S F D A (1988); World Map of Natural Hazards (1978).

138

Table IV. Selected atmospheric disasters

H. DANIEL STILLWELL

Date Name Location Deaths Notes

HURRICANES 12 Aug 1915 Haiti 1 600 3 Sep 1930 Dominican Republic 2 000 9 Nov 1932 Cuba 2 500

21 Oct 1935 Haiti 2 150 3 Oct 1963 Flora Haiti 5 000 4 Oct 1963 Flora Cuba 1 750

19 Sep 1974 Fifi Honduras 8 000

30 Aug 1979 David Dominican Republic 1 440 and Dominica

5 Aug 1980 Allen Haiti and Jamaica

16 Sep 1989 Hugo Guadeloupe, St Croix Montserrat, Puerto Rico

306

504

6 000 injured

$180 million damage $500 million damage 600 000 affected $540 million damage 6100 injured, $2 billion damage, 350 000 homeless 1 270 000 affected 360 000 affected $1.5 billion damage Over $2 billion damage over 200 000 affected

DROUGHTS 1877-1879 Brazil - northeast a 1970 Brazil - northeast 1978 Brazil - central, south 1979-1983 Brazil - northeast 1982-1983 Bolivia - southwest,

Peru - south (potato crop failure)

1988 Brazil - northeast, south

1988 Argentina - central, northeast b

500000 Affected nine states 10 million affected $2.3 billion damage 20 million affected 3.6 million affected $1 billion damage

1 million affected

900 000 affected

FLOODS Jul 1965

Jan 1967 Oct-Nov 1970 Mar 1972 Jan 1979 Dec 1982 -June '83 Jan 1983 Jan 1983

May 1983

Jun 1984 Apr 1985 Nov 1985 Feb 1988

Chile - Antofagasta, 600 Aisen Brazil - southeast 785 Colombia - Magdelena 307

Peru - coast 12 Brazil - east central 300 Ecuador - entire coast 307

Peru - north coast 364 Brazil - Minas Gerais 68

Argentina - northeast

Brazil - Santa Catarina 27 Brazil - northeast 100 Argentina - Buenos Aires Brazil - Rio de Janeiro 300

$10 million damage

$7.8 million damage $139 million damage, 5 million affected 1.5 million affected 1.5 million affected $232 million damage, 1 million affected $1 billion damage $12 million damage 3 million affected $1 billion damage 5.5 million affected $1 billion damage $200 million damage $1.3 billion damage $1 billion damage

COLD WAVES Jul 1975 Brazil - Parami c 70 $600 million damage to and 1981 coffee crop

Sources: a Wilson (1972); b Ford (1989); t U n e (1982); Office of USFDA (1988); Berz (1988); Hills (1982).


.n,

~.ca9 ' ~.

• ~ ?',.

oo / +,.,,

o,

M EARTHQUAKES ?v • quakes with>7.5 Richter

$~'~'~!=quake area with 4 . 0 - 7 . 5 R ichter

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

PLATE MOVEMENT '~.~N ~¢,~,~

i7:~:.~, v,

.,~tv, w...

Fig. i. The unstable setting of Latin America.

be unavailable. Monetary evaluation of total damage or loss is difficult to establish, especially for the disruption of intangibles such as ecosystems and social systems.

Another important consideration is the complexity of some events. Multiple cause and effect make it difficult to classify an event for direct comparisons. This necessitates multiple listing as exemplified by the Mt Huascaran, Peru, disaster.

6.1. Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions

As previously mentioned, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are generally aligned along the Pacific subduction zone (see Figure 1). They also follow the island arc of the Caribbean Plate into the interior of Central America. Note that the Cocos Plate is very active, moving 6.9 cm/yr to the northeast, and characterized by many volcanoes and major quakes along the west coast of Central America. Since volcanic activity and earthquakes are often associated with high peaks and steep mountain slopes, resulting events may include avalanches, lahars (water-saturated volcanic debris flows), landslides and flooding. Violent explosions of ash may have worldwide climatic affects such as the eruption of E1 Chich6n, Mexico, on 28 March 1982 (Sigurdsson, 1985). Most volcanoes are located far from large urban


i

Mexico C ~

"o

EL N I N O \ $,

sea surface temperature ~" ~ ~ ~ up to SiC above normal

Vl Mayun l

0 500 1000 mi.

0 80Q 1 ~00 km.

20* ~ F l o r a 20*N -- ~

MASS MOVEMENTS major slides since 1900

H U R R I C A N E S "~-...maJor tracks since 1900

DROUQHT/DESERTIFICATION • :"::!'::~; S e v e r e ,;!ii~ii:!'ii!;i!~. m o d e r a t e

FLOODS ~ s e v e r e ~ ch,onlc

COLD WAVES / • • hal|storms * * l imit of killing frost

/

Fig. 2. Selected mass movements and atmospheric disasters in Latin America.

centers, but eruptions have destroyed entire towns. The Mt Pelee event of 8 May 1902 took the greatest toll of lives (29 000) for any eruption in Latin America with the destruction of St Pierre, Martinique• The most destructive eruption occurred 25 March 1985 when Nevado del Ruiz buried Armero, Colombia, leaving 21 800 dead and causing U.S.$1 billion damage (Office of USFDA, 1988, 51).

Earthquakes are responsible for great loss of life and property when affecting


large urban areas such as Mexico City, Guatemala City and Managua. Since 1972, quakes have caused over 44000 deaths, almost 150 000 injuries, and U.S.$9.8 billion damage to large cities (summarized from Table I). Tsunamis, which are caused by underwater earthquakes, have brought periodic destruction to the Pacific coast in the form of high waves and flooding. The quake of 21 May 1960 off-shore at Concepcion, Chile, triggered a tsunami which reached across the Pacific Ocean to Japan.

6.2. Mass Movements

Large, destructive mass movements are more frequent and widely distributed than earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, since gravity operates universally. Heavy rains and flooding often trigger disastrous and chronic mudflows, such as the recent event in Rio de Janeiro, 22 February 1988. A combination of deep, loose tropical soils and steep slopes that have been deforested and intensively used for shanty town housing aggravate the problem of mudflows. The most destructive mass movements in Latin America have occurred in the highlands of Peru (1970) and Colombia (1985) as avalanches, lahars, and rock slides associated with quakes and volcanic eruptions.

6.3. Atmospheric Disturbances

Adverse atmospheric events affect most of Latin America either directly through hurricanes, drought, floods, and friagem (cold waves) or indirectly by mass movements of mud, rock or snow. Hurricanes originate over tropical waters and therefore usually affect only the Caribbean islands and adjacent lands of Middle Amer- ica. They have killed over 30 000 people this century, mostly by drowning as the result of storm surges (see Tables IV, V and VI). Five of the 13 major tracks shown in Figure 2 were especially destructive.

A most complex and far-reaching atmospheric phenomenon, E1 Nifio, has re- cently gained attention as being responsible for many weather anomalies throughout the world. More completely referred to as 'El Nifio and La Nifia' since 1986, the terms are derived from the Spanish 'boy' or 'Christ child' and 'girl,' since the phenomena usually start near Christmas. Both involve major periodic changes in the relation of ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific known as the Southern Oscil- lation. E1 Nifio causes a collapse of the trade winds allowing warm surface water to develop off the equatorial coast of western South America. This condition brings heavy winter rains. La Nifia has the opposite effect with strong trade winds causing an upwelling of cold water to the surface. The result brings drought along the coast and heavy rains and flooding to the interior (Caviedes, 1982; Philander, 1989). This phenomena was experienced in 1891, 1925, 1940, 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1988. An extremely severe E1 Nifio of August 1982 to April 1983 was credited with having caused floods and landslides in coastal Ecuador and northern Peru,


drought in southern Peru, Bolivia, Central America and Mexico as well as other atmospheric disasters throughout the world (Canby, 1984). The 1988 E1 Nifio brought a major drought to the midwest of the United States, disastrous floods to Bangladesh and a severe hurricane season to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico regions.

Drought and desertification are insidious hazards in Latin America that result from both natural and human induced processes. Drought refers to a period with less-than-normal rainfall and can affect most parts of Latin America. Desert- ification is a process which reduces biological productivity of a region through both physical changes and human impacts: for example, migration of dunes, chronic wildfires, clearing and burning vegetation, overgrazing and cropping, or improper irrigation methods which allow salt and alkalis to accumulate on the soil surface. About 20% of Latin America suffers from desertification (Wijkman and Timberlake 1986).

Chronic drought has affected the sertdo of northeast Brazil since 1583; the great drought of 1877-79 caused half a million people to die from thirst, starvation or disease and forced a massive emigration (Wilson, 1972). Recent droughts have occurred in 1953, 1970, 1979, and 1988. Adjustment to drought depends on the degree of awareness which is influenced by social and economic conditions (Brooks, 1982). Poor people are the most affected. Droughts affected southern Peru and southwest Bolivia in 1982-83 causing a widespread potato crop failure (Caputo, 1985). In fact, drought prevails through the entire southern cone of South America in winters when high pressure cells over the oceans are connected across the Andes (Caviedes, 1981). This impacts on the Mediterranean crops of central Chile (Norte Chico), and the wheat farms of the Argentine pampas. The 1988 drought in northern Argentina caused a drastic reduction in river flow which in turn lowered the output of hydroelectricity. President Alfonsin declared a state of emergency and sent 900 000 urban workers home when air conditioning failed (Ford, 1989).

Drought is also a problem for parts of Middle America. Mexico suffers from chronic drought which causes major crop losses and frequently results in population movement.

Floods often occur in the same region as droughts, since they both are phenomena of humid and arid climates. The relative frequency of these events will vary according to the climatic regime. Floods and droughts also share a common problem, the deterioration of vegetative cover. Deforestation, overgrazing, and compaction of soil cause accelerated erosion and runoff, which, in turn, encourage floods and droughts. Although floods do not cause as many deaths as most other natural disasters in Latin America, they account for major damage to crops, settlements, and infrastructures. The flood of November 1985 in the Buenos Aires area cost U.S.$1.3 billion. Four other floods since 1965 caused U.S.$1 billion in damage (Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, 1988).

Cold waves, known as frigarns, occur in the pampas of Argentina and even


extend to the coffee region of south-central Brazil. Records for almost a century attest to a total of 30 years when frost affected Brazil (Une, 1982). Particularly severe damage to coffee plants (U.S.$600 million) occurred in July 1975, and again in July 1981. Fertile terra roxa soils may compensate for the climatic risk. Frost has repeatedly ruined the yerba mate crops in the La Plata lowlands of Argentina, and hail storms periodically damage the Mendoza vineyards.

7. Analysis of Choropleth Maps

In order to understand the spatial impact of natural disasters on Latin American countries, a tally was made from data in Disaster History (Office of USFDA, 1988) and presented in Table V. In addition, choropleth maps were drafted for each disaster allowing the comparison of deaths, people affected, and damage (Figures 5-10). All recorded events from 1900 to 1988 are included with the following criteria:

(1) earthquake and volcanic disasters with at least six people killed, or at least 25 killed and injured, or at least 1000 people affected (homeless or displaced), or if damage is at least U.S.$1 million (unadjusted for inflation).

(2) all other disasters with at least 50 people killed and injured, or at least 1000 people affected, or if damage is at least U.S.$1 million.

Note that the criteria above differ from that used by the Natural Hazards Research Group, viz. at least 100 people killed, or at least 100 injured, or at least U.S.$1 million damage (Dworkin, 1974).

When interpreting data of Table V, some caution is necessary to insure valid comparisons:

(1) The 31 countries do not all have data from the same time period. Fourteen countries have data only since the mid-1940s. Data is more complete and accurate since 1964, the year when the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance was created.

(2) In some cases, no data for people killed or affected or U.S.$ damage is given when there obviously should be some data.

(3) The number of people affected includes those who were injured, homeless, or displaced. In some cases no data is given, but obviously some people have been affected. It was either never gathered or was lost.

(4) The amount of damage in U.S.$ is not adjusted for inflation. However, the affect is minimized when data is added over a long time period.

(5) Choropleth maps characteristically distribute data evenly over each country for ease in comparing among countries, although natural disasters are usually concentrated in specific areas as shown in Figures 1 and 2.

(6) There are great differences in size among the Latin American countries, ranging from Brazil with over 8.5 million km 2 to St Vincent with only 343

!44

Table V. Natural disasters in Latin America 1900-1988

H. DANIEL STILLWELL

Code for disasters: VO - volcano, EQ - earthquake, LS - landslide, FL - flood, DR - drought, HU - hurricane, nd - no data.

Country Events People People Damage (year records killed affected U.S. $1000 started)

MIDDLE AMERICA Antigua (1950)

DR 1 HU 3

Barbados (1955) HU 1 FL i

Belize (1931) FL 1 HU 5

Costa Rica (1963) VO 4 EQ 2 LS 1 FL 5 DR 1

Cuba (1926) EQ 1 FL 2 HU 10

Dominica (1963) HU

Dominician Republic 3 (1930)

nd 75 000 nd 4 nd I 000

57 nd nd 3 200 500

nd 1 796

17 000 nd 76 000 82 500

104 87 391 5 000 22 4038 200

i 5000 nd 41 25 330 34000

nd nd nd

1 22

4 392

nd nd 18000 60000

737 891 621 000

42 80000 49 250

FL 2 52 DR 1 nd HU 5 3 884

E1 Salvador (1951) EQ 4 2 245 FL 1 500 HU 1 2

Guadeloupe (1928) VO 1 nd HU 4 39

Guatemala (1902) VO 3 1 000 EQ 3 23 000 FL 3 709 DR 1 nd HU 1 269

Guyana (1964) FL 1 nd

Haiti (1909) EQ 1 6 FL 6 739 DR 4 nd HU 7 10 198

151 000 nd 240 000 5 000

1 213 000 279 700

620 582 1 065 000 50 000 280 000

4 600 1 600

75 000 nd 20 000 70 000

6 500 nd 3 764 000 1000 000

27 500 2 500 73 000 nd 10 200 15 000

21 000 200

nd 20 000 178 000 959

1 270 217 1 000 728 110 250 000

NATURAL HAZARDS AND DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA

Table V. Continued

145

Code for disasters: VO - volcano, EQ - earthquake, LS - landslide, FL - flood, DR - drought, HU - hurricane, nd - no data.


Honduras (1965) FL 4 131 96 000 114 500 DR 2 nd 400 000 7 000 HU 3 8 000 610 000 560 000

Jamaica (1903) EQ 1 1 200 90 000 nd FL 7 440 240 000 76 000 DR 1 nd 100 000 500 HU 10 537 50 000 138 725

Martinique (1902) VO 1 29 000 nd nd HU 5 70 26 000 71 000

Mexico (1909) VO 2 100 28 000 nd EQ 12 9 617 117 500 4 033 000 LS 2 68 nd nd FL 14 2 373 450 345 132 800 HU 12 3 336 626 000 378 000 DR 1 nd nd nd

Nicaragua (1931) VO 1 nd 3 000 2 000 EQ 3 11 000 402 000 847 000 FL 5 87 131 300 357 500 HU 1 35 2 800 380

Panama (1964) FL 8 97 56 245 91 400

St Lucia (1960) HU 3 19 70 000 91 455

St Vincent (1902) VO 3 1 567 22 000 nd FL 1 nd 142 nd HU 3 122 20 000 21 600

SOUTH AMERICA Argentina (1944)

EQ 3 5 076 45 000 nd LS i 45 nd nd FL 14 250 626 000 2 358 000 DR 1 nd 900 000 nd

Bolivia (1964) FL 14 458 655 600 472 618 DR 3 nd 3 083 049 917 200

146

Table V. Continued

H. DANIEL STILLWELL

Code for disasters: VO - volcano, EQ - earthquake, LS - landslide, FL - flood, DR - drought, HU - hurricane, n d - no data.


Brazil (1961) EQ 1 1 15 000 nd LS 4 907 4 000 000 27 FL 39 3 811 8 194 435 1 754 584 DR 8 nd 35750000 2951 100

Chile (1906) VO 1 4 2 000 nd EQ 20 40 100 5 411 314 4 356 410 LS 1 8 nd nd FL 6 706 458 173 20 000 DR 2 nd 150 000 110 000

Colombia (1956) VO 2 21 800 9 600 1 000 000 EQ 6 681 88 000 431 900 LS 9 921 nd nd FL 14 891 5 637 000 544 350

Ecuador (1942) VO 3 1 20 000 nd EQ 8 6 557 330 000 1 528 000 LS 5 330 6 nd FL 6 327 923 000 236 770 DR 1 nd 600 000 nd

Paraguay (1963) FL 6 6 361 890 85 050 DR 1 nd 13 400 nd

Peru (1913) EQ 20 69 644 3 213 225 562 i00 LS 12 8 115 18 400 24 700 FL 15 1 437 2 982 140 1 033 800 DR 3 nd 904 604 161 800

Trinidad (1933) HU 2 37 nd 33 000

Uruguay (1967) FL 2 8 54 063 39 000

Venezuela (1939) EQ 2 242 80 000 50 000 LS 1 900 15 000 800 FL 4 98 42 000 4 126

k m 2. P o p u l a t i o n t o t a l s a n d d e n s i t i e s a l so v a r y g r e a t l y so t h a t n a t u r a l d i sas -

t e r s h a v e d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s o n d i f f e r e n t a r e a s . F o r e x a m p l e , a h u r r i c a n e m a y

c o m p l e t e l y d e v a s t a t e a s m a l l i s l a n d b u t c a u s e l i t t l e d a m a g e as i t m o v e s o n t o

t h e m a i n l a n d a n d d i s s i p a t e s .

T h e r e f e r e n c e m a p ( F i g u r e 3) a n d p o p u l a t i o n m a p ( F i g u r e 4) o f L a t i n A m e r i c a n


W JAMAICA %/,.% " 0 %0

. ." I I s t . t , ~ t , . ',+ .,' 10*

o o 0

0 5 0 0 1000 mL I I I

0 800 1600 km.

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Fig. 3. Countries of Latin America.

countries are included to aid the interpretation of the choropleth maps. In the final analysis, natural disasters are only significant relative to human populations.

The summary of natural disaster data in Table VI shows that floods represented the greatest number of events (42%), followed by earthquakes and hurricanes. Earthquakes caused by far the most deaths (58%) as well as the greatest U.S.$ damage (47%). Droughts affected the most people (49%).

Table VII lists the countries having the highest total disaster data for each type


4

1 0 0 0 ml.

1 6 0 0 km,

0,000 people

Fig. 4. Population of Latin America.

NATURAL HAZARDS AND DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA

Table VI. Totals by natural disaster 1900-1988

149

Natural People People Damage disaster Events (%) killed (%) affected (%) U.S.$1000 (%)

Volcano 19 (4) 64576 (22) 253518 (<1) 1007000 (3) Earthquake 87 (20) 169 392 (58) 14 180 659 (16) 13 893 610 (47) Landslide 36 (8) 11 295 (4) 4038406 (5) 25527 (<1) Flood 181 (42) 13 186 (5) 21 396 363 (25) 7 698 657 (26) Drought 30 (8) * 42 659 270 (49) 4 153 600 (14) Hurricane 77 (18) 33 379 (11) 4 270 001 (5) 2 631 210 (9)

Totals of all natural disasters 430 291 828 86 798 217 29 409 604

* Although no data was listed for deaths from drought, it is obvious that some toll was taken by famine, thirst, and disease associated with drought.

of disaster and ca tegory of loss. The effects o f volcanic erupt ions and hurr icanes

were mos t p r o n o u n c e d for islands due to dense popula t ions and proximity to

water . Drough t s and floods character ize Brazil where these events are associated

with climatic anomalies and of ten with mis-use o f land. Countr ies along the west

coast of South A m e r i c a also showed drought and flood problems, a likely result

of the E1 Ni f io /La Nifia p h e n o m e n a . E a r t h q u a k e and landslide disasters p redomin-

a ted in countr ies along the boundar ies of tectonic plates, especially Peru and

Chile. The n u m b e r o f people affected by ear thquakes was greatest in G u a t e m a l a

and the n u m b e r affected by landslides was greatest in Brazil.

Table V I I I shows that floods were exper ienced by the mos t n u m b e r of countr ies ,

25 ou t of the total 31. This is due part ly to the fact that floods accompany

hurr icanes which are dominan t in the Car ibbean-Ant i l les region with m a n y small

countries. Landsl ides of major consequence were exper ienced by the fewest coun-

tries, only nine, a l though the p h e n o m e n o n was widespread. Steep moun ta in slopes

usually lie distant f rom popula t ion centers, thus minimizing the effects of landslides.

Table VII. Countries showing highest total disaster data

Natural Country Country Country disaster People killed People affected U.S.$ damage

Volcano Martinique Guadeloupe Colombia 29 000 75 000 1 billion

Earthquake Peru Guatemala Chile 69 644 3.8 million 4.4 billion

Landslide Peru Brazil Peru 8 115 4.0 million 25 million

Flood Brazil Brazil Argentina 3 811 8.2 million 2.4 billion

Drought * Brazil Brazil 35.8 million 3.0 billion

Hurricane Haiti Dominician Republic Cuba 10 198 1.2 Million 621 million

* See note to Table VI.

150

Table VIII. Frequency of disaster by number of countries

H. DANIEL STILLWELL

Natural Number of % of the total 31 countries disaster countries for each disaster

Hood 25 81 Hurricane 16 52 Earthquake 15 48 Drought 14 45 Volcano 11 35 Landslide 9 29

Table IX summarizes the comparative impact from natural disasters experienced by various countries. It is derived from a tally of the highest category for each item in Figures 5-10. Peru surpassed all other countries in susceptibility to major disaster impact. It is centrally located within the Andean chain and on the boun- dary between the Nazca and American plates where earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are expected. A long coastline makes it vulnerable to the effects of E1 Nifio and La Nifia, and thus is plagued by floods, droughts, and mass movements.

8. Confronting Natural Hazards and Future Disasters

The diverse landscapes of Latin America offer a great variety of hazards and thus have suffered from both natural as well as culturally-induced disasters. Some disasters are preventable when there is an understanding of the interactions between the events and poverty, between recovery needs and ongoing development needs, and between relief strategies and aid organizations (Cuny, 1983). Disasters may entrench poverty or encourage progress toward self-reliance. Relief should be part of an ongoing attempt to raise economic levels.

What needs to be done and what are the priorities to reduce loss from future disasters? Certainly, broad programs of hazard assessment and disaster prediction, preparedness and mitigation should be undertaken. One example is the Pan Carib- bean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project, with headquarters in St John's, Antigua. It was established in 1981 to develop the individual and collective capacity of participating countries for mitigating the disastrous effects of natural hazards (Maybury, 1986). A more comprehensive program is the Central Amer-

Table IX. Countries listed by frequency of highest disaster data category (from choropleth maps, Figures 5A-10C)

Country Frequency

Peru 8 Brazil 6 Mexico 4 Chile 4 Colombia 3 Honduras 3


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N A T U R A L H A Z A R D S A N D DIS AS T E R S IN L A T I N A M E R I C A 153

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ta 001 to I,ooc).000

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Fig. 9. Drought in Latin America, 1900-1988.

ican Disaster Project at Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo Facio, Costa Rica. Its objectives are to determine the risks to which populations in Central America are exposed, to evaluate mitigation and prevention measures, and to analyze socioeconomic and educational/ideological characteristics of populations in various risk zones (Natural Hazards Observer, 1991, 8).

The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction in the 1990s should have a positive effect on Latin America through coordinating disaster research, gathering data, and sharing information. This potent first step in reducing impacts of natural hazards and disasters must not be allowed to end in the year 2000. By then it is hoped that initiatives will have developed on the local, regional, national and international levels to continue the goals set forth by the United Nations.

Satellite surveillance and monitoring shows great promise in identifying hazards and assessing damage from disasters. Brazil is using satellite imagery to follow drought developments and deforestation. An early warning system offers the chance to prepare for a disaster such as a hurricane, although it has little use against earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. In 1988, early warning minimized loss of life during Hurricane Hugo.

Some regions are prepared for disaster with hazard zone maps and evacuation


DEATHS ~ : = ~ : " r ; = 4 ~'2 V '~

1.001 to 5.000 ---~". ,

5.001 to 11.000 ~ " ~ ' '

i ] No Hurricenes

EOTED• ~': " .

20,001 to 50,000

50,001 to 500,000 4

L _ . ~ No Hurricanes

DAMAGE $1000's

I to 20.000

20,001 to 70,000

70.001 to 250.000

250.001 to 622.000

No Hurrlcones

V ' ~ .

Fig. 10. Hurricanes in Latin America, 1900-1988.

plans, but these measures may not always work. For example, even though hazard zone maps had been prepared for the area around Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, residents failed to respond and were caught by the eruption of 1985.

Some disasters can be mitigated or even prevented (Hagman, 1984). Earth- quake-resistant building materials and design greatly reduce damage; zoning laws and building codes offer positive actions (Kreimer, 1978). For example, the 1985 earthquake in Valparaiso, Chile, affected almost one million people but only 180 lives were lost (Office of USFDA, 1988, 44). Modern seismic design minimized the destruction of buildings. Peru is concentrating on earthquake problems with


improvements of traditional buildings, as well as preparedness and response measures. The Mexican government has created a special office at the presidential level to coordinate disaster research and response activities for earthquakes, floods and hurricanes (Cuny, 1983).

Behind much of the loss from mass movement and flooding lies over-use or deforestation of land. These are critical problems in much of Latin America which land use regulations could help to reduce. Recognizing vulnerability to a natural hazard and avoiding settlement on hazardous sites can also reduce the effects of natural disasters. The slope of an active volcano or the flood plain of a major river are fertile sites for crop production, but they hold latent danger.

Perhaps the greatest need in Latin America to reduce disaster losses is a reno- vation of the social, political, and economic framework of its developing countries. This includes a greater social concern for the poor, improved housing, increased educational opportunities, and a more equitable distribution of resources. Poor people have been 'marginalized', living either on eroded, unproductive land or on the fringe of urban areas where hazards usually exist. A loss of diversity and a dependence on external sources of relief have compounded the problem. As poor people become better integrated into the economic and political mainstream of the country, there can be a reduction in both population growth and dependence on the economically advantaged groups, including multinational corporations. Spreading economic loss from a disaster over a population larger than that directly affected by the disaster can speed recovery.

This paper has traced the background of natural disasters in Latin America and presented spatial patterns of their impact on human lives and property through this century. The heightened awareness of disaster types which affect specific countries or regions should help in reducing their future impact. Ideally, the people of Latin America will confront future natural disasters with the benefit of improved economic levels, greater political representation, and an enlightened social consciousness.

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