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National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Southeast River Forecast CenterNorth Florida Visit
July 17-20, 2006
Southeast River Forecast CenterNorth Florida Visit
July 17-20, 2006
Jeff Dobur
Senior Hydrologist
National Weather Service
Southeast River Forecast Center
Jeff Dobur
Senior Hydrologist
National Weather Service
Southeast River Forecast Center
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
TOPICSTOPICS
• River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?
• Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
• Future North Florida Hydrologic OperationsFuture North Florida Hydrologic Operations
• Challenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida Hydrology
• River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?
• Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
• Future North Florida Hydrologic OperationsFuture North Florida Hydrologic Operations
• Challenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida Hydrology
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?
Need DataNeed Data
About 500 Hydrologic Data Gages
About 2200 Rainfall Data Gages
About 29
WSR-88Ds
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?
Basic Forecast ProcessBasic Forecast Process
Observed PrecipitationObserved
PrecipitationFuture
PrecipitationFuture
Precipitation
SAC-SMA ModelRain to Runoff
SAC-SMA ModelRain to Runoff
Basin
Watershed
Rating CurveStages to FlowsRating Curve
Stages to Flows
Unit HydrographRunoff to Flow
Unit HydrographRunoff to Flow
Upstream FlowUpstream Flow
River GageBasin Local FlowBasin Local Flow Total Flow
(cfs)Total Flow
(cfs)
ForecasterModificationForecaster
Modification
ForecastTo WFOForecastTo WFO
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Sacramento Runoff ModelSacramento Runoff ModelSacramento Runoff ModelSacramento Runoff Model
River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?
IFP – Forecaster AdjustmentsIFP – Forecaster AdjustmentsIFP – Forecaster AdjustmentsIFP – Forecaster Adjustments
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?
ForecastTo WFOForecastTo WFO
Public/EMA/MediaPublic/EMA/Media
Stage Forecast Flood Warning
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Four Functions of RFCFour Functions of RFC
1.1. Continuous hydrometeorological data Continuous hydrometeorological data
assimilation, river basin modeling, and assimilation, river basin modeling, and
hydrologic forecast preparation.hydrologic forecast preparation.
2.2. Technical support and interaction with Technical support and interaction with
WFOs.WFOs.
3.3. Technical support and interaction with Technical support and interaction with outside water management agencies and outside water management agencies and users.users.
4.4. Performance of non-real-time operational Performance of non-real-time operational work which includes model calibration and work which includes model calibration and database management.database management.
1.1. Continuous hydrometeorological data Continuous hydrometeorological data
assimilation, river basin modeling, and assimilation, river basin modeling, and
hydrologic forecast preparation.hydrologic forecast preparation.
2.2. Technical support and interaction with Technical support and interaction with
WFOs.WFOs.
3.3. Technical support and interaction with Technical support and interaction with outside water management agencies and outside water management agencies and users.users.
4.4. Performance of non-real-time operational Performance of non-real-time operational work which includes model calibration and work which includes model calibration and database management.database management.
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
Major Basin GroupsMajor Basin Groups
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
SERFC North Florida Forecast Sites
19 Suwannee
4 Apalachicola
1 Choctawhatchee
7 South Alabama
SERFC North Florida Forecast Sites
19 Suwannee
4 Apalachicola
1 Choctawhatchee
7 South Alabama
Daily ForecastsDaily Forecasts Flood Only ForecastsFlood Only Forecasts
More to come!More to come!
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Monitor heavy rain relative to Basins in real time
• Monitor to both observed and expected rain
• Monitor spatial distribution relative to basins
• Stay ahead of the rain
Monitor heavy rain relative to Basins in real time
• Monitor to both observed and expected rain
• Monitor spatial distribution relative to basins
• Stay ahead of the rain
Rain relative to basin
Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
Recent Projects and ImprovementsRecent Projects and Improvements
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
Recent Projects and ImprovementsRecent Projects and Improvements
Fast Response
Basins
Fast Response
Basins
Site Specific ModelSite Specific Model
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
Recent Projects and ImprovementsRecent Projects and Improvements
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
Recent Projects and ImprovementsRecent Projects and Improvements
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
Generalized procedure for making medium and long-range probabilistic forecasts of streamflow and streamflow
related variables = Water Resource Tool.
Generalized procedure for making medium and long-range probabilistic forecasts of streamflow and streamflow
related variables = Water Resource Tool.
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Current North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic OperationsCurrent North Florida Hydrologic Operations
Recent Projects and ImprovementsRecent Projects and Improvements
Flood Mapping used alongside E-19 Impact Data
Flood Mapping used alongside E-19 Impact Data
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Future North Florida Hydrologic OperationsFuture North Florida Hydrologic OperationsFuture North Florida Hydrologic OperationsFuture North Florida Hydrologic Operations
• Improve on recent projects – flood mapping, ESP, etc
• Distributed Hydrologic Modeling vs Lumped Model
• Storm Surge Flood Prediction – Flood Wave, Hydraulic modeling
• Improved Small Basin Flash Flood Guidance
• Better and more timely rainfall prediction
• More to come!
• Improve on recent projects – flood mapping, ESP, etc
• Distributed Hydrologic Modeling vs Lumped Model
• Storm Surge Flood Prediction – Flood Wave, Hydraulic modeling
• Improved Small Basin Flash Flood Guidance
• Better and more timely rainfall prediction
• More to come!
Future Projects and ImprovementsFuture Projects and Improvements
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Challenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida Hydrology
County Population Density vs Flash Flood Events
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0-22 23-31 32-39 40-49 50-60 60-78 79-104
105-162
163-293
294-2867
County Population Density (per sq mile)
An
nu
al F
las
h F
loo
d E
ve
nts
p
er
10
00
sq
mi
Population Increases and Urban FloodingPopulation Increases and Urban Flooding
Spatial distribution of the average annual number of flash flood events per 1000 square miles by county across the southeastern United States from 1994-2004. Red color shades indicate areas of elevated numbers of flash flood events.
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Tools for improved Water ManagementTools for improved Water Management
Challenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida Hydrology
Water Rights and Water ResourcesWater Rights and Water Resources
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Challenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida Hydrology
Tropical Storms – Inland FloodingTropical Storms – Inland Flooding
U.S. Tropical Cyclone Deaths1970-99
WATER 82%WIND 12%
TORNADO 4%
OTHER 2%
FRESHWATER 59%
WIND 12%SURF 11%
OFFSHORE 11%
TORNADO 4%OTHER 2%
SURGE 1%
1970-99 U.S. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEATHS
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Tropical Storms – Inland FloodingTropical Storms – Inland Flooding
Challenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida Hydrology
Georgia Flood Fatal i ties by Storm Scale
(1987-2005)
11%
33%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Smal l Scale Lar ge Scale T r opical
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center
Challenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida HydrologyChallenges for North Florida Hydrology
Tropical Storms – Inland FloodingTropical Storms – Inland Flooding
National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center
Many Hydrologic Challenges Ahead
For Our Communities
Many Hydrologic Challenges Ahead
For Our Communities
Improved Skill and Awareness will be Key to
Our Success
Improved Skill and Awareness will be Key to
Our SuccessThank You