national weather service & general aviation eaa airventure oshkosh brig. gen. david l. johnson,...

National Weather Service &General Aviation

National Weather Service &General Aviation

EAA AirVenture Oshkosh

Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services& National Weather Service Director

EAA AirVenture Oshkosh

Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services& National Weather Service Director

““America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life” ““America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”

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• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy

• 76 billion observations• 4 million aviation

forecasts• 68,127 aviation

warnings

• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy

• 76 billion observations• 4 million aviation

forecasts• 68,127 aviation

warnings

A Typical Year Brings: A Typical Year Brings: – 7 Hurricanes7 Hurricanes– 1,000 Tornadoes1,000 Tornadoes– 5,000 Floods5,000 Floods– 10,000 Violent 10,000 Violent

ThunderstormsThunderstorms– Drought ConditionsDrought Conditions– 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries;

$14 Billion in Losses$14 Billion in Losses

A Typical Year Brings: A Typical Year Brings: – 7 Hurricanes7 Hurricanes– 1,000 Tornadoes1,000 Tornadoes– 5,000 Floods5,000 Floods– 10,000 Violent 10,000 Violent

ThunderstormsThunderstorms– Drought ConditionsDrought Conditions– 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries;

$14 Billion in Losses$14 Billion in Losses

The Nation’s RisksExtreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s RisksExtreme Climate, Weather, and Water

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

6 – 10 Days6 – 10 Days

8 – 14 Days8 – 14 Days

MonthsMonthsSeasonsSeasons YearsYears

Forecast UncertaintyForecast

Uncertainty

Protection ofLife & PropertyProtection of

Life & Property

HydropowerHydropower RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem

State/LocalPlanning

State/LocalPlanning

EnvironmentEnvironment

Flood Mitigation& Navigation

Flood Mitigation& Navigation

AgricultureAgriculture ReservoirControl

ReservoirControl

HealthHealth

SpaceOperations

SpaceOperations

Fire WeatherFire Weather EnergyEnergy

Outlooks

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert

Coordination

Outlooks

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert

Coordination

Fo

reca

st L

ead

Tim

eF

ore

cast

Lea

d T

ime

BenefitsBenefits

Seamless Suite of Products

NWS OverviewNWS Overview

Aviation/Transportation

Aviation/Transportation

NWS’s Aviation Services FacilitiesNWS’s Aviation Services Facilities

HydrometeorologicalPrediction Center

NWS’s Aviation Services National Centers for Environmental PredictionNWS’s Aviation Services National Centers for Environmental Prediction

CCEE

NN TT RRAA

LL

Space EnvironmentCenter

Storm PredictionCenter

Climate PredictionCenter

Ocean PredictionCenter

Tropical PredictionCenter

EnvironmentalModelingCenter

PPOO

EERR AA TT II

OONNSS

Aviation WeatherCenter

Aviation WeatherAviation WeatherCenterCenter

7X24 Surveillance

CCFP

Global Graphics

Area Forecasts

NWS’s Aviation Services Aviation Weather CenterNWS’s Aviation Services Aviation Weather Center

NWS’s Aviation Services CWSU & ARTCCNWS’s Aviation Services CWSU & ARTCC

CWSU Forecast AreasCWSU Forecast Areas

Discipline Specific ViewWhole System

View

Atmospheric Atmospheric ObservationsObservations

Land Land Surface Surface ObservationsObservations

Ocean Ocean ObservationsObservations

Space Space ObservationsObservations

NWS’s Aviation ServicesExtensive Observation SystemNWS’s Aviation ServicesExtensive Observation System

NWS’s Aviation Services Doppler RadarsNWS’s Aviation Services Doppler Radars

BostonBoston

DCDCPhillyPhilly

Pittsburgh

RaleighRaleigh

CharlotteCharlotte

AtlantaAtlanta

MelbourneMelbourne

MiamiMiamiTampaTampa

HoustonFt. Worth

Phoenix

Las Vegas

Salt Lake City

Denver

Minneapolis

OKC

Tulsa

Wichita

KCSt. Louis

MilwaukeeMilwaukee

Chicago

DetroitDetroit

Indy

MemphisNashville

LouisvilleWilmington

ClevelandCleveland

NYCNYC

San JuanSan Juan

New OrleansNew Orleans

Association Key

-TDWR Data Not Currently Available to NWS

- Connected to WFO- Test Sites

TDWR LocationsTDWR Locations

NWS’s Aviation Services ASOS SitesNWS’s Aviation Services ASOS Sites

NWS’s Aviation ChallengesWeather & Traffic DensityNWS’s Aviation ChallengesWeather & Traffic Density

QUIZQUIZ

NWS’s Aviation ChallengesWeather & Traffic DensityNWS’s Aviation ChallengesWeather & Traffic Density

US Air Traffic DensityAviation Weather Risks

• Thunderstorms cause fatalities and severe injuries at a cost of $8.1M/yr

• Convection responsible for 40% of delay costs: $840 – 920 M/yr

• Approximately 40% of thunderstorm delay possibly avoidable ($336-368 M/yr)

• Thunderstorms cause fatalities and severe injuries at a cost of $8.1M/yr

• Convection responsible for 40% of delay costs: $840 – 920 M/yr

• Approximately 40% of thunderstorm delay possibly avoidable ($336-368 M/yr)

Thunderstorm ImpactsThunderstorm Impacts

Source: FAASource: FAA

NWS’s Aviation ServicesThe FutureNWS’s Aviation ServicesThe Future

A. Joint Planning & Development Office & Next Generation Air Transportation System

B. NWS Aviation Service Improvement Efforts


B. NWS Aviation Service Improvement Efforts

We are working to overcome these challenges.We are working to overcome these challenges.

B. NWS Aviation Service Improvements

1. Improved NWS Aviation Operations

2. New Observations Capabilities

3. New Products and Services

4. New Training & Availability

B. NWS Aviation Service Improvements



3. New Products and Services

4. New Training & Availability


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp/images/ffmpCollage1.gif

1. Improved NWS Aviation Operations– Improve end-to-end forecast process

• Right concentration of people and technology

• Develop relevant products

• Improve dissemination

– Integrate research/development and training

• Accelerate science improvements to operations

– Improve Aviation Weather Program management

• At all levels…..

1. Improved NWS Aviation Operations– Improve end-to-end forecast process

• Right concentration of people and technology

• Develop relevant products

• Improve dissemination

– Integrate research/development and training

• Accelerate science improvements to operations

– Improve Aviation Weather Program management

• At all levels…..



– Pilot Project

• Decision Aid Products—What’s the impact of weather on operations?

• End-to-end forecast process

• Remote briefings support on-demand info. needs

• Human interaction with automated techniques


– Pilot Project

• Decision Aid Products—What’s the impact of weather on operations?

• End-to-end forecast process

• Remote briefings support on-demand info. needs

• Human interaction with automated techniques



– New water vapor observations from aircraft

• Plan to add 50 sensors this year

• FY 2007 (requested) 125 additional sensors

• Fraction of cost compared to rawindsonde

• Provides offset to enable funding of 4D database


– New water vapor observations from aircraft

• Plan to add 50 sensors this year

• FY 2007 (requested) 125 additional sensors

• Fraction of cost compared to rawindsonde

• Provides offset to enable funding of 4D database



3. New Products & Services– Decision Aids (DA) are developed through

understanding the user and their needs.

• DAs Create consistency for multiple users.

• DAs Allow users to interpret weather information at a glance.

• DAs Concisely depict impacts to operations.

3. New Products & Services– Decision Aids (DA) are developed through

understanding the user and their needs.

• DAs Create consistency for multiple users.

• DAs Allow users to interpret weather information at a glance.

• DAs Concisely depict impacts to operations.

• Ceiling and Visibility (Graphical AIRMET Sierra)– IFR Ceiling– IFR Visibility– Mountain Obscuration

• Icing (Graphical AIRMET Zulu)– Moderate Icing– Freezing Level Height(s)

• Turbulence (Graphical AIRMET Tango)– Moderate Turbulence– Non-convective Low-level wind shear– Sustained surface wind greater than 30 knots

• Ceiling and Visibility (Graphical AIRMET Sierra)– IFR Ceiling– IFR Visibility– Mountain Obscuration

• Icing (Graphical AIRMET Zulu)– Moderate Icing– Freezing Level Height(s)

• Turbulence (Graphical AIRMET Tango)– Moderate Turbulence– Non-convective Low-level wind shear– Sustained surface wind greater than 30 knots


3. New Products & Services3. New Products & Services

3. New Products & Services

Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)

3. New Products & Services

Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)


Cloud Base Height (ft)

Surface Visibility (miles)

Prob. Of Severe LLWS (20knt/2000 ft)


3. New Products & Services3. New Products & Services

3. New Products & Services – 4D Digital Database* is key for NGATS (by 2012)

Forecast Icing Forecast Icing PotentialPotential


GraphicalGraphicalTurbulenceTurbulenceGuidanceGuidance

4. Improved Training & Availability

In-House:• Online Aviation Operations

Course• Regional/National Aviation

Workshops

In-House:• Online Aviation Operations

Course• Regional/National Aviation

Workshops

DLAC1 - Low Cloud & Fog ForecastingImpact of Weather on Air Traffic Management Module

DLAC1 - Low Cloud & Fog ForecastingImpact of Weather on Air Traffic Management Module

AOPA Pilot Weather Training AOPA Pilot Weather Training


NWS’s Aviation ServicesTraining Tools: Partners W/ AOPA NWS’s Aviation ServicesTraining Tools: Partners W/ AOPA

http://flash.aopa.org/asf/wxwise_thunder/http://flash.aopa.org/asf/wxwise_thunder/

Your Voice!

Your Help!

Your Voice!

Your Help!

Your Role NWS’s Future Aviation ServicesYour Role NWS’s Future Aviation Services

Your Help + NWS Situational Awareness

=Safe Flight Plan

Your Help + NWS Situational Awareness

=Safe Flight Plan

Total NOAA Request: $3.684 billionTotal NWS Request: $881.9M

Aviation Weather Increase: $1.2M

Total NOAA Request: $3.684 billionTotal NWS Request: $881.9M

Aviation Weather Increase: $1.2M

NWS’s Aviation ServicesFY07 Budget RequestNWS’s Aviation ServicesFY07 Budget Request

national weather service & general aviation eaa airventure oshkosh brig. gen. david l. johnson,...

Documents

aviation forecasts68

impact of weather

weather forecasts

americas weather enterprise

way of life good weather

noaa assistant administrator

needshuman interaction

rawindsondeprovides