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Изменения климата в Изменения климата в Climate change in Climate change in высокогорье Средней Азии высокогорье Средней Азии в конце в конце XX XX века века high mountains of high mountains of Central Asia in the Central Asia in the end of XXth century end of XXth century end of XXth century end of XXth century G. Glazirin, U. Tajibayeva G. Glazirin, U. Tajibayeva Г .Е. Глазырин, У .У . Таджибаева Г .Е. Глазырин, У .У . Таджибаева National University of Uzbekistan, National University of Uzbekistan, Tashkent Tashkent Национальный Университет Национальный Университет Узбекистана, Ташкент Узбекистана, Ташкент

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Page 1: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Изменения климата в Изменения климата в Climate change in Climate change in высокогорье Средней Азии высокогорье Средней Азии в конце в конце XXXX векавека

high mountains of high mountains of Central Asia in the Central Asia in the end of XXth centuryend of XXth centuryend of XXth centuryend of XXth century

G. Glazirin, U. TajibayevaG. Glazirin, U. TajibayevaГ.Е. Глазырин, У.У. ТаджибаеваГ.Е. Глазырин, У.У. Таджибаева

National University of Uzbekistan, National University of Uzbekistan, TashkentTashkent

Национальный Университет Национальный Университет Узбекистана, ТашкентУзбекистана, Ташкент

Page 2: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Main topicsMain topicsMain topicsMain topics

Unexpected regularities in climate Unexpected regularities in climate change over the mountainous Central change over the mountainous Central Asia.Asia.

Some data on real climate changeSome data on real climate changeSome data on real climate change Some data on real climate change in XXI century.in XXI century.

Consequences for change of Consequences for change of glaciation area and runglaciation area and run offoffglaciation area and runglaciation area and run--off.off.

Page 3: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Mountains of the former Soviet Central AsiaMountains of the former Soviet Central Asia

Ti ShTi ShTien ShanTien Shan

HissarHissar AlayAlay

Western Tien ShanWestern Tien Shan

HissarHissar--AlayAlay

The PamirsThe PamirsThe PamirsThe Pamirs

AfghanistanAfghanistan

Page 4: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Data setData setfor the whole Central Asiafor the whole Central Asiafor the whole Central Asiafor the whole Central Asia

Data from 39 meteorological stations located Data from 39 meteorological stations located ggabove 1.5 km over the whole Central Asia;above 1.5 km over the whole Central Asia;

Data on annual precipitation, summer and winter Data on annual precipitation, summer and winter air temperature for 1961air temperature for 1961--1990 were used;1990 were used;

Linear trends of for all stations Linear trends of for all stations l l t dl l t d

y  =  0.015x   ‐ 25.959

5.0

6.0

were calculated.were calculated.

3.0

4.0

5.0

Example: Tien Shan StationExample: Tien Shan Station2.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Example: Tien Shan Station, Example: Tien Shan Station, summer air temperature.summer air temperature.Trend is equal to 0.015 oC/y.Trend is equal to 0.015 oC/y.

Page 5: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Summer air temperature trends Summer air temperature trends i t i f C t l A ii t i f C t l A iin mountains of Central Asia in mountains of Central Asia

(*1000 (*1000 ooC/y)C/y)

19611961 199019901961 1961 -- 19901990

Page 6: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Winter air temperature trends in Winter air temperature trends in t i f C t l A it i f C t l A imountains of Central Asia mountains of Central Asia

(*1000 (*1000 ooC/y)C/y)

19611961 199019901961 1961 -- 19901990

Page 7: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Annual precipitation trends in Annual precipitation trends in t i f C t l A it i f C t l A imountains of Central Asia mountains of Central Asia

( %/y)( %/y)

19611961 199019901961 1961 -- 19901990

Page 8: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Data set for Data set for Western periphery of CentralWestern periphery of CentralWestern periphery of Central Western periphery of Central

Asian mountainsAsian mountains

Data from 21 meteorological stations Data from 21 meteorological stations located at the Western periphery of located at the Western periphery of Central Asian mountains were used;Central Asian mountains were used;

Data for 36 years (1970Data for 36 years (1970--2005) were 2005) were collected.collected.

Linear trends of for all Linear trends of for all stations were calculated;stations were calculated;

Page 9: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Dependences of trends on altitude (Z)Dependences of trends on altitude (Z)Annual air temperature

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

end,

o C/y

1970 1970 -- 20052005

Example:Example: LongLong--term change of theterm change of the

Change of air temperature vertical gradientChange of air temperature vertical gradient0.00

0.01

0.02

0 1 1 2 2 3

Z, km

Tre

Sum m er (Jun-Aug) air tem perature

0 00

0.02

0.04

end,

o C/y

Example:Example: LongLong term change of the term change of the gradients between gradients between Kaunchi St. (0.34 km) Kaunchi St. (0.34 km) and Oigaing St. (2.15 km).and Oigaing St. (2.15 km).

-0.02

0.00

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Z, km

Tre

-5.0

-4.0

Annual precipitation

0.8

1.2

Tren

d, %

/y

-7.0

-6.0

Gra

d, o C/

km

TsumTwin

0.0

0.4

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Z, km

T

-8.01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Page 10: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Data set Data set f l ti f t d li t hf l ti f t d li t hfor evaluation of present day climate change for evaluation of present day climate change

at Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountains

Data from 17 meteorological stations were used;Data from 17 meteorological stations were used;

Data for 2000Data for 2000--2008 were collected;2008 were collected;

Average for all station annual deviations of air temperature and Average for all station annual deviations of air temperature and annual precipitation from mean for 2000annual precipitation from mean for 2000--2008 were calculated;2008 were calculated;annual precipitation from mean for 2000annual precipitation from mean for 2000--2008 were calculated;2008 were calculated;

Linear trends of for all stations were calculated.Linear trends of for all stations were calculated.

Page 11: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Present day climate change Present day climate change at Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountains

0.4

Annual air temperatureAnnual air temperature

140

Annual precipitationAnnual precipitation

-0.2

0.0

0.2

dTan

, oC

80

100

120

P, %

-0.6

-0.4

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

60

80

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

1

2

Winter air temperatureWinter air temperature

1.0

1.5

Summer air temperatureSummer air temperature

-3

-2

-1

0dT

win

, oC

-0.5

0.0

0.5

dTsu

m, o

C

-42000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

-1.02000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Page 12: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Present day climate change Present day climate change at Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountains

0.02

(dependence of trends on altitude)(dependence of trends on altitude)

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

Tren

d, o

C/y

Annual air temperatureAnnual air temperature

Summer air temperatureSummer air temperature

-0.08

-0.06

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Z, km

Annual precipitationAnnual precipitation

0.30 2

y0.10

0.20

Tren

d, o

C/y

-2

0

Tren

d, %

/y

0.000.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Z, km

-40.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Z, km

Page 13: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Glaciation area changeGlaciation area change

230

250

Sokh River basinSokh River basin

190

210

230

Fg, k

m^2

1701950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

55

60

65

2

40

45

50

Fg, k

m^

Oigaing River basinOigaing River basin

351930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Page 14: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

LongLong--term water resources changeterm water resources change(by Yu. Ivanov)(by Yu. Ivanov)(by Yu. Ivanov)(by Yu. Ivanov)

River Gouging st Watershed Mean annual Glaciation

area rate

Fraction of glacial River Gouging st. area, km2 runoff,

m3/s

area rate, % (1960) feeding, %

(1960)

Syrdarya Bekabad 142,000 829 1.8 7y y ,

Amudarya Kerki 309,000 2070 ~2.6 9

2000

2500

3000

3500

off,

m3/

s

0

500

1000

1500

000

Ann

ual r

uno

01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Years

Page 15: National University of Uzbekistan, Узбекистана Ташкент ...neespi.org/web-content/meetings/Bishkek_2009/Day1.4_Glazirin.pdf · National University of Uzbekistan,

Thank you for kind attention!Thank you for kind attention!