national phenology network (npn)

UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography

NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK (NPN)NETWORK (NPN)

Challenges of BuildingChallenges of Building

a Phenological Research Infrastructurea Phenological Research Infrastructure

in the USAin the USA


Research ContributionsResearch Contributions Research Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, X. Chen, Research Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, X. Chen,

B. Reed, M. White, and T. ZhaoB. Reed, M. White, and T. Zhao Phenology data from J. Caprio, DWD, and A. MenzelPhenology data from J. Caprio, DWD, and A. Menzel Climate data from Chinese Meteorological Climate data from Chinese Meteorological

Administration, German Weather Service (DWD), Administration, German Weather Service (DWD), Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki WodnejInstytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej(Poland), and USA National Climatic Data Center(Poland), and USA National Climatic Data Center

NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224 Base maps from ESRI dataBase maps from ESRI data


Definition of PhenologyDefinition of Phenology PhenologyPhenology which is derived from the Greek word which is derived from the Greek word phainophaino meaning to show or to appear, is the study of meaning to show or to appear, is the study of plant and animal life cycle events, which are plant and animal life cycle events, which are triggered by environmental changes, especially triggered by environmental changes, especially temperature. Thus, timings of phenological events temperature. Thus, timings of phenological events are ideal indicators of global change impacts.are ideal indicators of global change impacts.

SeasonalitySeasonality is a related term, referring to similar is a related term, referring to similar non-biological events, such as timing of the fall non-biological events, such as timing of the fall formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water lakes. lakes.


Phenological ResearchPhenological Research Traditional approach: agriculture-Traditional approach: agriculture-

centered, and local-scale eventscentered, and local-scale events Recent approach: Earth systems Recent approach: Earth systems

interactions, and global-scale eventsinteractions, and global-scale events Question: What roles for phenology in Question: What roles for phenology in

current and future agricultural current and future agricultural research?research?


Decadal Averaged Cherry Bloom in Kyoto, JapanDecadal Averaged Cherry Bloom in Kyoto, Japan

Data Source: web file (no longer available)


Mean onset of spring phenophases in the Mean onset of spring phenophases in the International Phenological Gardens (Europe)International Phenological Gardens (Europe)

Source: Menzel et al. 2001, Global Change Biology, Figure 1


Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesCloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesat a single station in Vermontat a single station in Vermont


Simulated phenology developed from lilac and Simulated phenology developed from lilac and honeysuckle data combined with climate data honeysuckle data combined with climate data

Source: Schwartz and Reiter 2000, Plate 4 (updated)


Critical Research AreasCritical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Atmosphere-Biosphere

InteractionsInteractions Long-term Organism Long-term Organism

response to Climate Changeresponse to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases Global Phenology Databases

for monitoring and for monitoring and managementmanagement


Integrated ApproachIntegrated Approach Satellite Observations Satellite Observations

(AVHRR-NDVI)(AVHRR-NDVI) Indicator Species Indicator Species

PhenologyPhenology Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology


Lilac First LeafLilac First Leaf


Lilac First BloomLilac First Bloom


DMA NDVI Start of Season 1995DMA NDVI Start of Season 1995(Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 74, March 15(Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 74, March 15thth))


Diurnal Range Change with Lilac First LeafDiurnal Range Change with Lilac First Leaf

- 5 6 - 4 2 - 2 8 - 1 4 0 1 4 2 8 4 2 5 6Days After First Leaf Date

7 . 5

8 . 5

9 . 5

1 0 . 5

1 1 . 5

1 2 . 5

1 3 . 5

1 4 . 5

1 5 . 5

Diu

rna

l R

an

ge

(°C

)Snow DateM ean = -27.9s.e. = 1.6 +

Freeze D ateM ean = +12.5s.e. = 0.9 +

Source: Schwartz 1996, Figure 3


Comparative Net Ecosystem ExchangeComparative Net Ecosystem Exchange

-70 -56 -42 -28 -14 0 14 28 42 56 70Days after Spring Index First Bloom

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Mea

n D

aily

NE

E (

um

ol/m

2 /s)

Oak Ridge, TNH. Forest, MAM-Monroe, IN

Park Falls, W I


Comparative Net Ecosystem ExchangeComparative Net Ecosystem ExchangeAnnual “Downturn” RatesAnnual “Downturn” Rates

-10 0 10 20 30 40Days after SI First Bloom that NEE = -5

-40

-20

0

20

40

Day

s af

ter

SI F

irst

Blo

om

th

at N

EE

= 0

Oak Ridge, TNH. Forest, MAM-Monroe, INPark Falls, W I


Terrestrial Biosphere Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamic Change DetectionDynamic Change Detection

Satellite PhenologySatellite Phenology Simulated Phenology (Models)Simulated Phenology (Models) Cloned Species PhenologyCloned Species Phenology Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology


Satellite PhenologySatellite Phenology Advantages: Advantages:

1) Global coverage; 1) Global coverage; 2) Integrated signal 2) Integrated signal

Limitations: Limitations: 1) Short period-of-record; 1) Short period-of-record; 2) Cloud cover interference; 2) Cloud cover interference; 3) Interpretation issues; 3) Interpretation issues; 4) Small set of measures 4) Small set of measures


SMN NDVI Start of Season 1995SMN NDVI Start of Season 1995 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 124, May 4 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 124, May 4thth))


Simulated PhenologySimulated Phenology

Advantages: Advantages: 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 2) Standardized 2) Standardized responseresponse

Limitations: Limitations: 1) Model inadequacies; 1) Model inadequacies; 2) Small set of events and plants2) Small set of events and plants


Spring Indices Spring Indices Suite of MeasuresSuite of Measures

First -2.2First -2.2ooC freeze date in AutumnC freeze date in Autumn Composite chill date (SI models)Composite chill date (SI models) First leaf date (SI models)First leaf date (SI models) First bloom date (SI models)First bloom date (SI models) Last -2.2Last -2.2ooC freeze date in Spring C freeze date in Spring -2.2-2.2ooC Freeze periodC Freeze period Damage index value (first leaf – last frost)Damage index value (first leaf – last frost) Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve

average monthly temperaturesaverage monthly temperatures


SI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 SlopeSI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 Slope


North. Hem. SI First Leaf Date DeparturesNorth. Hem. SI First Leaf Date Departures


North. Hem. Last –2.2North. Hem. Last –2.2ooC Freeze Date DeparturesC Freeze Date Departures


SI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 SlopeSI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 Slope


Cloned Species PhenologyCloned Species Phenology

Advantages: Advantages: 1) 1) Ideal for model development; Ideal for model development; 2) Standardized response to 2) Standardized response to environment; 3) Broad rangeenvironment; 3) Broad range

Limitations: Limitations: 1) 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Not adapted to local 2) Not adapted to local environmentenvironment


Lilac First Leaf 1961-2000 SlopeLilac First Leaf 1961-2000 Slope


Lilac First Bloom 1961-2000 SlopeLilac First Bloom 1961-2000 Slope


Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology

Advantages: Advantages: 1) Adapted to the local environment; 1) Adapted to the local environment; 2) Precise signal 2) Precise signal

Limitations: Limitations: 1) 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Limited range; 2) Limited range; 3) Geographical variations in 3) Geographical variations in responseresponse


Integrated ApproachIntegrated ApproachExample: WisconsinExample: Wisconsin

Zhao and Schwartz (2003)Zhao and Schwartz (2003)

Satellite phenology (DMA SOS)Satellite phenology (DMA SOS) Simulated phenology Simulated phenology

(SI first bloom dates) (SI first bloom dates) ““Native” species phenology Native” species phenology

(WPS records of first bloom date (WPS records of first bloom date for 21 introduced and 32 native for 21 introduced and 32 native species)species)


Integrated Species Indices (ISI)Integrated Species Indices (ISI)southwestern Wisconsinsouthwestern Wisconsin


Critical Data/Analysis NeedsCritical Data/Analysis Needs Interpretation/Comparison of Interpretation/Comparison of

satellite phenology with “spatial” satellite phenology with “spatial” surface datasurface data

Interpretation of “ripple effects” in Interpretation of “ripple effects” in biomes and managed systemsbiomes and managed systems

National, continental, and global National, continental, and global scale phenology networksscale phenology networks


USA National Phenology USA National Phenology Network (NPN)Network (NPN)

a continental-scale network a continental-scale network observing observing regionally appropriate native plant species, regionally appropriate native plant species, cloned indicator plants (lilac), (and cloned indicator plants (lilac), (and selected agricultural crops?)selected agricultural crops?)

designed to complement remote sensing designed to complement remote sensing observationsobservations

data collected will be freely available to the data collected will be freely available to the research community and general publicresearch community and general public


Prototype for web-based NPNPrototype for web-based NPNhttp://www.npn.uwm.eduhttp://www.npn.uwm.edu


Select appropriate native speciesSelect appropriate native species


Submit data over the InternetSubmit data over the Internet


What might be possible with 20 years What might be possible with 20 years (or less) of phenological data?(or less) of phenological data?

Facilitate understanding of plant phenological Facilitate understanding of plant phenological cycles and their relationship to climatecycles and their relationship to climate

Comprehensive evaluation of satellite-derived Comprehensive evaluation of satellite-derived measurementsmeasurements

Detection of long-term phenological trends in Detection of long-term phenological trends in response to climate variability/global warmingresponse to climate variability/global warming

Evaluate impacts of longer growing seasons on Evaluate impacts of longer growing seasons on pollinators, cattle, crop and forest pests, pollinators, cattle, crop and forest pests, wildfires, carbon storage, and water usewildfires, carbon storage, and water use


Issues for NPN Implementation Issues for NPN Implementation Workshop Workshop (Aug. 23-25, 2005 in Tucson, AZ)(Aug. 23-25, 2005 in Tucson, AZ)

Native species selection for regionsNative species selection for regions Expansion of indicator plants to entire countryExpansion of indicator plants to entire country Web-based reporting and feedback systemWeb-based reporting and feedback system Network infrastructure design and functionNetwork infrastructure design and function Collaborative and cooperative agreementsCollaborative and cooperative agreements Deployment and development strategiesDeployment and development strategies Public engagement and awarenessPublic engagement and awareness

national phenology network (npn)

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