National Integrated Drought Information System: Native

American Drought Early Warning Activities

North American Drought Monitor ForumAsheville, NC – April 20, 2010

Doug Kluck (NWS/NOAA)Doug.kluck@noaa.gov

Outline

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Context

Two Key Workshops◦ Drought, Climate change and Early Warning on Western

Tribal Lands June 09◦ Drought Early Warning Information Systems- the Four-

Corners Region

Findings & Stressors

NIDIS offers a framework for developing information services to support adaptation strategies in a changing climate

“No systematic collection and analysis of social,

environmental, and economic data focused on

the impacts of drought within the United States exists today” Western

Governors Association 2004

ApplicationsResearch

PredictionMonitoring

ImpactMitigation

ProactivePlanning

ImprovedAdaptation

Integrating Tools e.g.Drought Monitor/Portal

Coordinating federal, tribal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states)

Identifying and transferring innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness-usability experiments

NIDIS INFORMATION MANAGEMENT MODEL

Drought and Water Resources:Federal Partnerships

Monitoring & ForecastingDrought Impacts

Assessments and Scenarios

Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation

NIDIS-Information Services in support of Adaptation

“Climate, drought and early warning on Western Native Lands” - a knowledge assessment

9-11 June, 2009 Jackson Lodge Grand Teton National Park WY

Need for both local and global knowledge of climate change: Complexity of climate change requires expert local inputs

Local community adaptations to climate changePast experience and sensitivity to local environmentCommunities vary resource use and harvesting methods when

necessaryLong collective memory by which to gauge change &

Indigenous landcare practices Mitigation necessary but not sufficient without community

organized ecosystem-based adaptation.. Translating Indigenous successes, adaptive challenges, and

knowledge for the benefit of the global community Complementarity: Indigenous community experts are

collaborative participatory research partners with Western scientists in climate change knowledge production

What would successful policy look like?

Federal Trust ResponsibilityData Collection & Monitoring GapsCapacityInterdisciplinary Research & Information Needs:

Engaging Tribal Communities & Building Awareness Grow Knowledge Systems for:

Developing CollaborationsWater Supply AssessmentRenewable Energy Scoping & Development

Findings

Four-Corners Region of the US: Assessment of Current and Projected Drought Risk, Impacts & Vulnerabilities Two-year project

April 2010

Early Afternoon MODIS Image April 3, 2009 Northeastern Arizona

Black Mesa

DefiancePlateau

Little Colorado R.

Lake Powell

Grand Canyon

Photos courtesy of Jon Mason

Increasing demand

Zuni Tribe Drought Plan

Zuni Culture of Land & Water

Occupied lands in AZ & NM semi-arid desert for many centuries (Anasazi cultural affiliation)

Farmed in Zuni River watershed for at least 3,000 years

Complex socioreligious system revolves around water, including special beliefs and taboos regarding flood and drought

Courtesy Kirk Bemis

Zuni Drought Plan Development Challenges & Lessons Learned

Cultural taboo to “plan” for drought; public involvement

Water rights considerations for water supply and use data

Risk increased by Tribal “financial and political” drought;(lack of water rights, development- esp. groundwater, maintenance, and management policies and resources)

Selling the need for a Plan as a worthy investmentAvoiding typical fate of plans doomed to the

bookshelfCourtesy Kirk Bemis

Findings

Tribal Politics ◦ Literacy and capacity◦ Competing private interests◦ Land use issues◦ Lack of infrastructure – not connected to water supply

Cultural Aspects◦ Drought unmentionable (Zuni)◦ Traditional knowledge vs western science

Sharing mitigation and adaptation knowledge◦ Indigenuity (Dan Wildcat)◦ Lack of buy-in and knowledge of mitigation plan (societal)

Monitoring◦ Need systematic approach to collect and transfer impact information

to state and feds◦ Maintain existing observations & better manner of funding◦ Downsize existing tribal networks for accuracy and consistency –

overwhelmed

Findings

Better real-time information sharing between feds, state and tribes

Expansion of the Drought Portal for tribes to share information on planning, adaptation means and impacts

Need better interpretation of existing information for tribal governments and general population interpretation of technical information to decision makers

Climate Changes Warmer, runoff, seasonal precipitation changes, heavy

eventsMarginal Land – Arid to semi-arid area

Additional Stresses

Climate change possible beyond historical context

Population pressures on commodities (water)

Past coping practices may no longer be relevant or even possible

Next Steps?

Monitoring◦ 4 Corners Tribes agreement on monitoring

Placement, funding, maintenance◦ Adding federal monitoring (HCNM)

Tribes – Joint/Individual letters to NOAA Works for the Zuni via BIA land

◦ Gap analysis needed New stations and streamlining those in place but not well maintained due

to cost/time Determine ideal network

◦ Possible expansion of cooperative stations (NOAA, CoCoRaHS) Interagency meetings (USDA, BOR, BLM, USGS, +)

◦ Help in understanding and using current indicies and development of new specific indicies for planning and early warning

◦ Joint resource planning (monitoring, research) for feds and Tribes◦ Education campaign: water usage & planning◦ Enhance early warning capabilities to minimize tribal conflict & to

mitigate supply issues

Thank You

Extra Slides

Other Tribal Engagement

American Indian/Native Alaskan Climate Change Working Group◦Tribal College engagement ◦Capacity building of western science and

indigenous knowledge for impacts and assessment reports

Native People Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop◦USGRCP Impacts Report

NIDIS Regional Early Warning Systems– Blue-first round;yellow-second round of prototypes

Southeast

Columbia

River

Basin

Lower CO Basin

Great Lakes

Region

+Texas

California

Upper Missouri Basin

Zuni Drought Contingency Plan Overview

Only for lands in Zuni River Basin in New MexicoDrought indices use existing federal data collection efforts

◦ Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI): standard from NOAA CPC◦ Zuni Precipitation Index (ZPI): customized with 3 NOAA stations◦ Zuni Stream Flow Index (SFI): customized with 1 USGS station

3 Drought Stages (+Receding): Alert, Warning, EmergencyPossible response actions regardless of drought stageEmphasis on long-term mitigation actions to reduce riskNo new, formal committees; uses existing programsLead responsibility with Water Resources Program

Zuni Drought Contingency Plan Monitoring Reports

Prepared monthly since May 2002 Drought index values and stages for recent month

◦ PDSI: Weekly values (NM Northwestern Plateau Climate Division 1)◦ ZPI: 6-month similar to SPI (Zuni, McGaffey, El Morro stations)◦ SFI: Annual cumulative exceedence flows (Rio Nutria station)

Precipitation for recent month, calendar and water years to date◦ NOAA stations at Zuni, McGaffey, El Morro and Fence Lake (and

basin averages) Snow Water Equivalent for recent month (January-April)

◦ NRCS stations at Boon, Dan Valley and McGaffey (and basin averages)

Streamflow for recent month◦ USGS stations at Zuni River and Rio Nutria

Reservoir storage for current month◦ Zuni stations for 9 Zuni reservoirs and 1 non-Zuni reservoir

U.S. Drought Monitor intensity status; and SPI (from WRCC) No forecasting in consideration of drought taboo

Drought information needs

Indicators, management triggers, response and impact avoidance

Declaring drought early and accurately (as possible)

Minimizing the duration of a declaration

Informing an equitable and reasonable responseWhere to go for help

Data, Information and tools need to prepare and manage drought

Drought impacts/climate: what? where? when?

Cultural and technical resources for managing riskPartnerships:Existing and needed for action

Shelf-life: Resources and Implementation

Engaging communities and resource managers in assessment & decision support as climate varies and changes

+ =

Decision SupportIntegrated Climate,

Ecosystems, Hydrology:Technical

Info & Data

Watershed, state, tribal, local: Experience

& Knowledge

Climate information needs and usability:

Entry points for proactivePlanning-triggers and indicators

Enabling resilience:Best available drought risk & water supply information

to inform infrastructure development

and ongoing adaptation

Zuni Drought Plan Implementation Challenges & Lessons Learned

Drought magnifies weaknesses in physical infrastructure, natural resources management & governmental organizations

These weaknesses have increased risk but also enduranceCommunity norm of having little, relying on governmentGovernment norm of inadequate resources, always reactingMinimize short-term relief that increases vulnerability,

dependence on government, and “new” program workloadEmphasize long-term mitigation that supports better

resource management, land user self-reliance, & “existing” workload

Plan is needed to help ourselves since minimal assistance is available just for drought, even with a Plan

Without buy-in at every step/level, Plan will remain paper