12 January, 2015

International Conference on Climate Change: Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihood

12-14 January 2015, Kathmandu, Nepal

Outline

Motivation/Background

Objectives

Study area

Materials and methods

Results and discussion

Conclusion

MOTIVATION -1

• Dendrochronology

Greek words,

dendron (= tree)

chronos (= time)

logos (= the study of)

Tree is a recorder &

biological databank

Versatile discipline = wider

applications

Tree rings = Sources of

proxy climatic data

MOTIVATION-2 Treelines = sensitive bio-monitors of CC

4

Photo: Mai-He Li 2010

Photo: Shiba Raj Ghimire 2011

OBJECTIVES

To assess treeline dynamics in the Nepal

Himalaya with Environmental (climate)

change

To reconstruct past climate of the Nepal

Himalaya

Study Area and Sites

Local climate trend Annual temperature change in Chame station(°C)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Pre

cipita

tion (

mm

)

Year

KCA RARA ANCA LNP

y = 0.113x - 221.8 R² = 0.179, P<0.06

0

5

10

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Te

mp

era

ture

(°C

)

Year

Annual average temperature in Langtang

A. Ecological mapping

8

Materials and Methods

Climate reconstruction and Teleconnection analysis

Dpl-R; KNMI Climate Explorer

Regeneration and growth - climate relationship

DPL-R, Dendroclim2002, = Correlation, regression

Population demography study

Standardization and Chronology dev- ARSTAN

Cross dating = Alignment plotting, math graphs, CDI

Error checking = COFECHA

Measurement- LINTAB5

Counting and Dating- Stereo Microscope

Air-drying, Mounting, Sanding & Polishing

Field visit and sample collection: >600 core samples

Material and Methods B. Dendrochronological Study

Data analysis…

10

(m/yr) positions obetween tw difference Time

position Old -position Recent shift of Rate

Camarero and Gutiérrez 2004, Climatic Change 63: 181–200

Materials and Methods…

Dendrochronological study in

Nepal = a glimpse

11

• More than 25 districts

• Over 20 species

.

.

.

Updated on Gaire et al 2013, FUUAST JOB

• Started in late 1970s

• First Institutional Lab- 2009

in NAST

Position of treeline or species limit (m asl)

KCA MBNP SNP LNP MCA RNP ANCA

Abies Limit

4136 3992-4060

4062-4141

3950 3984 3870 3763-3768

Betula Limit

4132 NA 4047-4132

>3950 4003 3903-3953

3802-3845

RESULTS

Treeline dynamics at Sagarmatha NP

0

5

10

15

20

25

1797 1827 1857 1887 1917 1947 1977 2007

Fre

qu

en

cy (

%)

Age class (year)

A. spectabilis

Treeline dynamics at Langtang NP-1

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

No

. o

f ste

m

DBH class (cm)

A. spectabilis

0

5

10

15

0-5

5-1

0

10-1

5

15-2

0

20-2

5

25-3

0

30-3

5

35-4

0

40-4

5

45-5

0

50-5

5

No

. o

f s

tem

DBH class (cm)

B. utilis

0

20

40

60

3730 3780 3830

Avera

ge A

ge (

yr)

Elevation (m, asl)

Gaire et al (2011), NJST

Spatio-

temporal

variation in establishment

Treeline dynamics in Manaslu CA

NP Gaire, M

Koirala, DR Bhuju,

HP Borgaonkar,

Climate of the Past, 2014

Tree species limit shift- MCA Average shift of A. spectabilis is 26.1 m per decade in past 160 yrs

Treeline Dynamics at Rara NP

Site chronologies of Abies spectabilis

18

Humla Manaslu CA Langtang NP Sagarmatha NP

Humla 1

Manaslu CA 0.128637 1

Langtang NP 0.150578 0.411815 1

Sagarmatha NP 0.085789 0.220071 0.203266 1

(a)

( c)

(b)

(d)

Climatic- tree growth & regeneration

Fig.6. Climate–growth & regeneration relationship; Abies ring width (a) and regeneration (b)

at Manaslu, Abies ring width at Langatang ( c), Humla(d). Symbols over the bar indicate the

level of significance of correlation coefficient.

Mean MJJA Tempr Reconstruction

13.00

13.50

14.00

14.50

15.00

15.50

16.00

16.50

1867 1887 1907 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

Year

MJJA_Reconstucted MJJA_Observed 10 per. Mov. Avg. (MJJA_Reconstucted)

Manaslu Region Gaire et al 2013, CPD

Fig. 3 Tree-ring chronology of P. smithiana extending from AD 1591 to 2012 along with

sample depth and EPS threshold cut off. The thick line represents the 10 years spline-

smoothing curve

Ring width Chronology from Western Nepal

Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P.Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dyamics

(In Press) DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2457-1

Fig. 7 The reconstructed

March–May temperature

data filtered with a

smoothing spline with a

50 % frequency cut off of

10 years

Fig. Cold and Warm

periods in reconstructed

March–May temperature

MAM temp reconstruction in Western Nepal

Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P. Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dynamics (In Press)

Fig: Correlation between

observed and estimated

temperature data and Sea

Surface Temperature (SST)

index for tropical Pacific

Ocean for the time period of

AD 1897–2012

Mean MAM Temp Reconstruction…

U.K. Thapa, et al (In

Press)

• The negative relationships

suggest that warm (cool)

spring season over the

western Nepal Himalaya

region are associated with

cool (warm) SSTs in the

following seasons.

• Climate of western Nepal has

linkages with spatio-temporal

climatic variability at a global

scale.

Conclusions • Dynamic treeline with differential regeneration and shifting of

species;Species-specific response to climate change

• The temperature reconstruction identified several periods of

warming and cooling but no consistent trend

• The negative relationships with SST and different Nino indices

suggest that warm (cool) spring season over the western

Nepal Himalaya region are associated with cool (warm) SSTs

in the following seasons

Way forward

• Extend studies in more treeline sites incorporating all treeline

forming species for modeling species distribution and treeline

position

• Extend dendroclimatic study & cover areas like

dendrohydrology, dendroglaciology, dendrogeomorphology,

etc in Nepal

Acknowledgements

Conference Organizing Team

Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)

CDES-TU

DHM, DNPWC, NTNC

Friends

Field assistants

Local peoples

Other helping hands