**ADRIANA DAVIDESCU

Institutul National de Cercetare Stiintifica in Domeniul Muncii si Protectiei SocialeMunca fr forme legale-aspecte fundamentale ale problemeiSeminarul naionalCreterea investiiilor n resursele umane i promovarea ocuprii formaleorganizat n cadrul proiectului Dialogul social o rut flexibil pentru ocupare i incluziunePOSDRU / 93 / 3.3 / S / 60304*

WSEAS MCBE'10

*Cuprins

1.1. Delimitri conceptuale ale economiei informale

1.2. Principalele cauze ale creterii economiei informale

1.3. Metode de evaluare a dimensiunii economiei informale

1.4. Estimri ale dimensiunii economiei informale

1.4.1. Estimarea dimensiunii economiei informale a Romaniei utilizand metoda cererii de lichiditati *

WSEAS MCBE'10

*Delimitri conceptuale ale economiei informale(1/3)*Schneider(1994, 2003, 2005, 2007):totalitatea activitilor economice nenregistrate ce contribuie n mod curent la obinerea PNB-ului oficial.

Smith (1994):baza cererii pentru desfacerea de bunuri i servicii (legal ori ilegal) ce scap controlului n estimrile oficiale ale produsului naional brut.

In sectorul neoficial sunt incluse toate activitile de producie, ale cror produse i servicii sunt legale, dar activitatea n sine este ascuns n mod deliberat de autoriti, cu scopul de obine ctiguri financiare (evaziune fiscal, nerespectarea anumitor reglementri i standarde).

Sistemul conturilor naionale 1993 i Sistemul European de Conturi 1995 introduc n cadrul conturilor naionale agregatul numit economie neobservat (non-observed economy-NOE) ce cuprinde : producie subteran, producie informal i producie ilegal.

Producia subteran este considerat a fi compus din:- activiti ascunse n mod deliberat cu scopul reducerii costurilor (T4, T5- activiti desfurate n afara reglementrilor guvernamentale, cum ar fi eludarea taxelor, salariul minim, numrul de ore lucrate i condiiile de munc pentru muncitori) - partea economic a produciei subterane.

- activiti neacoperite statistic, datorit unor deficiene n sistemul statistic (T1, T2, T3) - partea statistic a produciei subterane.

*

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**Producia sectorului informal (T6) se refer la unitile productive instituionale caracterizate printr-un nivel sczut de organizare, diviziune sczut ntre munc i capital, precum i relaii de munc bazate pe locuri de munc ocazionale, relaii de rudenie sau personale (este inclus activitatea meteugarilor, ambulanilor fr licene, lucrtorilor agricoli, muncitorilor la domiciliu i activitile nenregistrate ale micilor negustori). Producia ilegal (T7) include activiti orientate ctre producerea de bunuri i servicii a cror comercializare, distribuie sau posesie este interzis de lege (jocuri de noroc fr licen, prostituie, contraband) precum i producia legal realizat de productori neautorizai; activitile ilegale sunt excluse din conturile naionale.Delimitri conceptuale ale economiei informale(2/3)*

WSEAS MCBE'10

*Delimitari conceptuale ale economiei informale(3/3)*Schneider(2006) i Schneider et al.(2010):baza cererii pentru producia legal de bunuri i servicii ce este n mod deliberat ascuns autoritilor publice pentru a evita:

(1) plata impozitului pe venit, a TVA-ului sau a altor impozite; (2) plata contribuiilor la sistemul asigurrilor sociale; (3) ndeplinirea unor standarde juridice ale pieei muncii (salariul minim, numrul maxim de ore de munc, standarde de siguran); (4) respectarea unor proceduri admnistrative (completarea chestionarelor statistice sau a altor forme administrative).

n cadrul definiiei economiei informale, nu se includ: -activitile economice criminale (furturi, jafuri, trafic de droguri, prostituie)-sectorul informal al gospodriilor.

*

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*Principalele cauze ale creterii economiei informaleCreterea poverii fiscale i a contribuiilor la sistemul asigurrilor sociale

Reglementarea guvernamental excesiv

Calitatea serviciilor publice

Reducerea forat a orelor oficiale de munc

Pensionarea anticipat

Creterea ratei omajului

Situaia economiei oficiale*

WSEAS MCBE'10

*Metode de evaluare a dimensiunii economiei informale*

WSEAS MCBE'10

Estimri ale economiei informale **

WSEAS MCBE'10

Estimri ale economiei informale in Romania **

WSEAS MCBE'10

Estimarea dimensiunii economiei informale-Metodologie(1/2)*Metoda cererii de lichiditi: metod indirect utilizat de Cagan(1958), Tanzi(1980, 1983).Estimarea Fixnd variabila fiscal la zero i pstrnd coeficienii celorlalte variabile nemodificai, se estimeaz . Diferena reprezint valoarea extranumerarului ce msoar valoarea banilor ilegali din economie.Presupunnd c viteza de rotaie a banilor este aceeiai n ambele sectoare, formal i informal, dimensiunea economiei informale se obine multiplicnd EC cu viteza de circulaie a banilor (v):

Dac elasticitatea venitului Ahumada et. al (2006) propune o corecie a rezultatelor:

*

WSEAS MCBE'10

*Estimarea dimensiunii economiei informale-Metodologie(2/2)Plecnd de la funcia cererii de lichiditi a lui Cagan(1958) au fost estimate mai multe modele:

date trimestriale, 2000Q1-2010Q2. ajustate sezonier(cu excepia ratei dobnzii), difereniate. Buletinele lunare ale BNR, Baza de date Tempo(INS) i bazele de date ale Eurostat.

Analiza non-stationaritii.Analiza de cointegrare(Johansen i Pesaran).Modele VAR/ARDL cu mecanisme de corecie a erorilor ncorporate*

WSEAS MCBE'10

Rezultate empirice(1/3) Cel mai bun mode: .

Coeficienii sunt semnificativ diferii zero i atribuie ponderi relevante PIB-ului cu un coeficient de 1.80 i ratei fiscalitii cu 4.42, ceea ce implic faptul c o cretere a ratei fiscalitii este de natur s motiveze indivizii s participe n economia informal n ncercarea de a-i spori veniturile.

Coeficientul ratei dobnzii este negativ reflectnd costul de oportunitate tot mai mare al deinerii de lichiditi atunci cnd rata dobnzii crete.***

WSEAS MCBE'10

*Metoda cererii de lichiditi(2/3)1. Rezultatele empirice au evideniat modelul M1 ca fiind cel mai adecvat: M1:

2. Fixnd variabila fiscal la zero i pstrnd coeficienii celorlalte variabile nemodificai, se estimeaz .Diferena reprezint valoarea extranumerarului ce msoar valoarea banilor ilegali din economie.

3. Presupunnd c viteza de rotaie a banilor este aceeiai n ambele sectoare, formal i informal, dimensiunea economiei informale se obine multiplicnd EC cu viteza de circulaie a banilor (v):

4. Dac elasticitatea venitului Ahumada et. al (2006) propune o corecie a rezultatelor:

*

WSEAS MCBE'10

*Metoda cererii de lichiditi(3/3)Fig.3.10. Dimensiunea economiei informale a Romniei-% din PIB-ul oficial Dimensiunea economiei informale exprimat ca % din PIB-ul oficial:

36.6% in 2000Q1, aceasta se ncadreaz pe un trend descendent nregistrnd 31% la finele anului 2008.

Pentru ultimele trimestre, se constat o tendin uor ascendent a dimensiunii economiei informale [1].

[1] Rezultatele sunt compatibile cu studiile lui Schneider(2007), Albu(2007, 2010, 2011) ce evideniaz un trend relativ descendent pentru dimensiunea economiei informale.*

WSEAS MCBE'10

Chart4

36.6508522002

36.5208047264

36.0824887574

36.7161726969

35.8788845025

36.0693117744

34.7311934776

34.7591911155

35.7677481034

34.1896478569

35.2585646186

34.1911186162

32.8314364622

35.4120007398

34.4254464044

34.2559805163

34.8210581354

33.9679978679

32.9820909037

33.6384862129

34.3020550407

33.099030041

33.8599363789

33.178653249

33.7494652142

33.3795588962

33.3876069912

33.4203218404

32.4937734255

33.0839618769

32.7730078636

33.3279953111

33.3314034551

32.5806987013

31.7907358362

30.9965540146

32.2250836723

31.9832909907

32.1053226444

31.2825445743

31.6581388085

31.5593314126

modele VECM

% din PIB-ul oficial

COMPARATII_METODE

SCR APPROACHCURRENCY DEMAND APPROACH

VECM_GRANGERARDLMIMIC

SE % OF OFF.GDPSE % OF OFF.GDPSE % OF OFF.GDPPonderea ec.informale ca % din GDP off.

15.1336.6543.413387303436.4925

20.6336.5243.259544794737.0770695451

17.3736.0842.741170401736.2793183851

10.8436.7243.490701679835.7835057054

11.7335.8842.500535117435.757254085

17.7936.0742.725610647634.3653660344

16.8634.7341.145793750334.1089240858

12.8534.7641.17874667933.2707741995

14.3435.7742.36925248731.5979664964

16.4934.1940.507400943430.5817648692

16.1735.2641.76798450730.0075494783

10.8434.1940.50914006929.2358084201

13.4832.8338.908889449529.2986533631

15.2335.4141.949061068628.9564016601

15.3034.4340.785260888228.0435754934

11.3434.2640.585605241226.5147030738

11.9434.8241.251707577626.2444912867

14.6233.9740.246281702324.9809593799

14.3332.9839.086038627423.5550944698

9.5133.6439.858339822823.896419852

10.6334.3040.639872754424.9711751831

10.6733.1039.223644904624.1619024044

10.6933.8640.119101686323.672298856

11.0333.1839.317296920222.5789228753

11.7833.7539.988982558822.0599821851

12.3533.3839.55362097120.9152398292

11.7033.3939.563064181121.2038060773

7.4433.4239.60161539820.8493998713

2.5032.4938.512036205419.1494643302

4.6633.0839.205878958519.3869589856

3.8332.7738.840216690618.9818153633

1.7833.3339.492945022318.1788570223

0.7933.3339.496962265616.9780153383

0.6032.5838.614193927616.4624857937

0.0031.7937.68633788116.7499279315

2.4431.0036.754541952717.1372517222

5.2232.2338.196396990918.3204621824

5.5631.9837.912410569419.2136233943

5.5432.1138.055719620619.2113043923

6.3031.2837.089994229520.3712435976

8.3331.6637.530680826820.4977161924

9.2931.5637.414768981520.4333472003

COMPARATII_METODE

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SCR approach

currecy demand approach(VECM)

currency demand approach(ARDL)

MIMIC APPROACH

MIMIC

VECM_GRANGER

GDP APPROACH

15-74ani15-74 ani15-7415-74 aniINSSE, date neajustate sezonierINSSE, date ajustate sezonier

%%% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of GDPpersoanemii pers.mii pers.%%%persoanemii pers.mil.RONmil.RONmil.RONmil.RONseasonally adjustedmil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemilioane lei preuri medii ale anului 2000mil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemilioane lei preuri medii ale anului 2000mil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curentemil.RON, preturi curente

Gov.cons/GDPTAX/GDPTaxes on production and imports, receivableCurrent taxes on income, wealth, etc., receivableSocial contributions, receivableSubsidies, payableSocial benefits other than social transfers in kind, payableTempo General government employmentEurostat General government employmentActive populationActivity rateILO Unemployment rateRata somajului inregistratTempo Self-employmentEurostat Self-employmentNumerarul in circulatieM1M2M1/M2C/M1C/M2Real GDP(2000=100)Real GDP(2000=100)Impozite pe produsSubvenii pe produsProdus intern brutProdus intern brutConsumul individual al administraiilor publiceConsumul colectiv efectiv al administraiilor publiceConsumul guvernamentalImpozite pe produsSubvenii pe produsProdus intern brutProdus intern brutConsumul individual al administraiilor publiceConsumul colectiv efectiv al administraiilor publiceConsumul guvernamental

2000120.478786267237.0913.99.0514.141.3312.22526779431.810735.262.48.112.239743152067.316074369.713610.532.1136.7811.811562320168.61739.2-9613538.4156231364.11408.42772.51981.2-111.617263.220168.61407.21466.12873.3

2000217.081816002533.0913.476.7512.872.5110.25522849430.211428.466.46.711.248576482428.721465249.951485135.3540.8814.451835420202.32208.3-349.117519.8183541472.41520.32992.72208-346.218852.220202.31563.61633.53197.1

2000315.83179689627.1411.46.179.571.598.19533705454.111594.267.36.210.249711602489.222775921.571632736.2738.4513.9522269.420214.32501.1-235.823105.422269.41800.11857.936582359-274.821334.220214.32025.22004.44029.6

2000417.58584691128.5411.066.7710.711.739.24567569492.711089.164.36.610.544535642320.925747664.491850641.4233.5813.9124738.220508.32800.5-3202682124738.22318.32398.44716.72508.3-254.123008.520508.32096.821344230.8

2001121.466710467636.3113.888.4413.991.7211.07550837471.910728.362.17.510.34162690222223786942.2919155.136.2434.2512.4116263.921045.52646.2-198.520395.316263.92419.11959.14378.22960.3-228.126250.921045.52569.52068.64638.1

2001215.945059357432.4511.997.9512.512.0911.35535596469.811265.265.26.38.748339842424.129647648.8220849.836.6938.7514.221922821142.22867.5-255.626399.4192282325.81883.64209.42867.4-256.628342.421142.22469.42018.34487.7

2001314.723481249225.5210.294.8710.360.357.47592762511.211467.266.45.57.850139202472.132648576.3823514.536.4738.0613.8823785.821519.53280.6-110.732939.923785.82679.72170.24849.93093.9-129.230473.821519.53015.62352.55368.1

2001414.863966585725.3410.325.419.611.259.79549792496.910849.162.76.38.642937602258.2356410159.2827051.237.5635.0813.1826207.621720.23797.1-200.838211.226207.63138.22541.55679.73496.8-159.332254.721720.227122210.94922.9

2002119.091023456436.4213.487.6715.272.1511.99541711470.910002.257.710.113.430076911837.533419234.0627532.633.5436.1812.131685121902.43267.9-386.426231.7168512771.52236.45007.93607.6-438.734079.121902.43012.12383.25395.3

2002215.181598899330.0312.445.6411.951.7110.03541484477.21042760.28.19.935340482089.9396210482.6830091.234.8437.8013.1720363.822388.74058-355.434741.420363.82918.92355.45274.34056.8-363.33728722388.73097.82506.95604.7

2002312.54067894826.7711.515.0810.181.198.67552694505.810602.761.17.58.437039532141.3423411273.5631733.235.5337.5613.3424945.322489.54585.7-363.541944.324945.329112349.15260.14383.9-421.338654.922489.53204.225345738.2

2002414.96875738324.6810.145.429.121.67.85559379511.710117.858.388.132619971942455713571.8737371.136.3233.5812.1927629.222879.84776.8-488.449099.627629.24067.43282.27349.64398.5-384.241205.422879.83513.62860.16373.7

2003123.172727774932.49157.2610.231.4711.35368334609508.656.28.18.629823951816.6458712904.0336945.134.9335.5512.4217708.823105.24715.2-255.734396.917708.839054065.77970.75209-289.544792.923105.24245.44329.88575.2

2003219.128912875532.313.356.1912.761.539.2523953460.110067.559.56.97.335641412078.352541425538849.936.6936.8613.5221346.323484.75696.1-249.144395.121346.34160.54331.88492.35694.6-259.747763.823484.74413.445828995.4

2003318.168320930226.0912.075.198.831.397.51522917458.410184.960.16.26.736397842137.7581415755.0841446.838.0136.9014.032645123767.86297.1-345.754354.5264514838.25037.19875.36018.5-398.55015123767.85328.45462.310790.7

2003418.263688704824.6710.215.838.631.287.18535788470.89625.856.96.77.231048571853579817075.5746075.137.0633.9512.5829011.423991.16317-388.264281.129011.45751.85988.311740.15729.4-302.753910.423991.15079.85261.710341.5

2004121.754809359435.9214.978.7712.182.311.28554999493.49605.456.78.87.828226701604.8577716793.34814634.8834.4012.0018833.224668.86182.7-342.543259.418833.24842.14568.994116864.9-385.956377.524668.85232.8487010102.8

2004218.842203176330.5512.926.9310.72.069.43547720493.810059.459.37.76.630531341736.4689018929.7350660.337.3736.4013.6022846.725184.66854-337.155258.422846.75356.9505510411.96952.7-356.859315.925184.65552.25252.210804.4

2004312.584341975424.53115.577.961.328.17529306473.710113.859.67.66.130438581743.7767021200.556740.437.3636.1813.5229041.926012.37212.1-384.668367.529041.94426.94176.78603.66893.3-443.463093.926012.34878.94563.19442

2004414.729500874124.179.825.329.030.857.37520629474.29832.457.98.16.228964991698.6746422906.264533.235.5032.5911.5731807.526212.47605.7-353.680482.731807.56099.7575511854.77178.1-272.565730.826212.45029.44839.89869.2

2005121.881687425835.9715.417.6112.951.5311.73522195482.99740.357.38.56.128922421705.47785.923296.66795734.2833.4211.4619947.926179.57638.5-327.452290.319947.95943.15498.9114428687.4-367.667582.626179.56201.1575511956.1

2005219.468029164830.2213.295.8911.041.549.68527004489.410020.258.97.15.631304071843.79581.528641.374200.338.6033.4512.9123892.2263928303-32365037.423892.26576.5608512661.58532-346.869647.5263926682.86309.112991.9

2005317.290491943126.9312.74.539.71.048.195241954969794.157.56.15.632023911850.410341.230898.68015238.5533.4712.9029770.626682.19666.6-342.278777.429770.67074.76546.3136219235.7-396.672786.626682.17801.37189.814991.1

2005413.399318251624.3411.354.318.681.797.29507005484.19721.557.16.85.930223751819.711385.533760.18633239.1033.7213.1933147.42727810203.7-1097.392849.533147.464625979.212441.29464.9-832.275969.3272785444.25035.110479.3

2006121.223477123136.115.318.0512.741.6311.49479518452.29763.857.47.86.128136501643.611479.933488.78752838.2634.2813.1221339.628038.18477.4-311.861828.721339.67082.2604013122.29945.6-348.878962.328038.17066.86272.713339.5

2006215.113835921731.4214.096.33111.49.73528369503.81016259.775.230231461813.313557.339067.29505441.1034.7014.2625797.728483.69868.7-372.177102.225797.76289.45363.711653.110006.6-403.983275.528483.66536.8556612102.8

2006314.006813304327.0712.275.439.371.47.76536771514.2103646174.931746331864.914423.142149.89934642.4334.2214.5232230.928850.510375.1-340.892818.432230.97016.9598413000.99770.4-396.586404.728850.57923.96745.514669.4

2006417.392802385825.5111.015.169.342.427.57485469471.39787.657.67.25.229496651776.815130.148726.111171143.6231.0513.5435848.829461.913229.1-544.8112901.335848.810598.19038.619636.712232.1-411.692046.829461.989137458.416371.4

2007118.143867275835.4112.639.5613.221.5612.26468396468.49796.457.674.828002101727.814985.654753.4112348.748.7427.3713.3422651.929859.48790.6-449.274162.822651.97046.46409.61345610345.2-497.994749.629859.47036.46698.313734.7

2007216.357308459332.0213.487.1411.41.419.66465172465.210102.559.46.543086593185817305.459727.8116127.451.4328.9714.9027358.230218.311853-438.592519.527358.279257208.715133.712025.7-480.3100155.330218.38233.57454.615688.1

200739.725287797827.2612.026.19.141.157.92456826456.810304.860.763.933261332014.418907.366667.1126507.952.7028.3614.9534148.230475.812903.9-411.5112222.934148.25715.35198.71091412136.1-479.7104487.130475.86462.55950.412412.9

2007419.747982518126.5311.685.359.51.358.34483202483.29773.457.66.14.128482011776.121441.779914.3148043.653.9826.8314.4838283.531446.815690.8-288.6137101.638283.514178.112896.727074.814693-217110799.631446.811642.110360.522002.6

2008120.262127275137.7914.5410.0413.211.8313.28475193463.59735.357.46.33.727555041737.621558.982628.6151794.154.4326.0914.2024588.632593.412722.1-308.793666.724587.510003.38416.518419.814645.5-339.8121126.532593.410389.78919.819309.5

2008215.837664305832.1912.747.9511.50.9210.97465435454.110059.559.45.63.930708891889.423598.290933.516146356.3225.9514.6229996.833124.712990.5-217.1116496.129992.510848.49127.719976.113372.4-240.4125553.633124.711014.39407.820422.1

2008312.618437554226.3111.575.758.990.788.84470984457.710178.260.15.44.431132951907.123610.892571.1166012.955.7625.5114.2237372.933089.616992.2-305.4142418.237372.610603.28921.219524.416175.9-358.7131480.633089.611725.61011421839.6

2008419.575402327822.59.474.768.270.49.57492809486.79805.757.95.85.627564941752.725286.892548.5173628.853.3027.3214.5639482.83235114903.1-612.216211939489.215859.61334429203.613952.4-454.1130528.23235113017.610699.323716.9

2009122.343859808935.5912.59.6813.411.4315.56482855482.99704.757.46.95.626323681678.623943.881456.4174881.746.5829.3913.6923051.930811.411235-341.597214.223082.911831.69111.220942.813091-374.2125290.130811.412096.39725.221821.5

2009217.099033665630.6612.675.8512.140.7114.32501795501.810007.859.26.3629982631839.524221.281705.417948245.5229.6413.5027374.230367.113639.2-214.9113308.62739413010.510019.123029.613835.4-239.212331630367.113507.510283.823791.3

2009313.629578006426.549.947.259.350.8812.23496162496.21022660.66.86.931390781900.323878.780578.5182531.844.1429.6313.0834724.730653.812421.7-270132052.434707.810915.68405.919321.511815.2-320.3122039.830653.812073.49532.621606

2009420.005738850822.399.524.658.220.2910.854789674799757.957.87.57.828103051741.32397379361.518801342.2130.2112.7536916.63022414070.2-379.4155432.336933.715530.511959.927490.413169.5-279124935.13022412745.59611.722357.2

2010121.816014079634.3612.089.1913.091.817.9457704457.79721.557.78.18.427681551734.424246.376460.4187820.640.7131.7112.9122459.130155.910784.4-276.597263.322586.311223.18798.92002212434.6-302.5126056.630155.911702.29401.721103.9

2010215.997311420229.812.376.3811.050.9715.24486359486.410185.160.56.87.532788231988.62610380491.2192273.841.8632.4313.5827224.630211.714036.7-264.6117126.527271.712046.59444.621491.114267.6-294127346.430211.712464.29667.822132

17538.4-131.8139408.333961.1103988152.118550.116659-158128797.830005.311501.39235.920737.2

CAUZEINDICATORI16448.2-418.1159842.736696.213553.910531.724085.615396.5-305.2128438.830047.111122.78482.519605.2

X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9X10X11seasonally adjustedY3

Tax burden/GDPGov.cons/GDPTaxes on production and imports/GDPTaxes on income/GDPSocial Contributions/GDPSubsidies, payableSocial benefits other than social transfers in kind, payableILO Unemployment rateRegistered unemployment rateSelf-employment/Active PopulationGovernment employment/Active PopulationM1/M2C/M1C/M2Index of real GDP(2000=100)labor force participation rate(activity rate)

2000137.0920.4813.99.0514.141.3312.228.112.237.024.0232.1136.7811.81100.0062.4

2000233.0917.0813.476.7512.872.5110.256.711.242.513.7635.3540.8814.45100.1766.4

2000327.1415.8311.46.179.571.598.196.210.242.883.9236.2738.4513.95100.2367.3

2000428.5417.5911.066.7710.711.739.246.610.540.164.4441.4233.5813.91101.6864.3

2001136.3121.4713.888.4413.991.7211.077.510.338.804.4036.2434.2512.41104.3562.1

2001232.4515.9511.997.9512.512.0911.356.38.742.914.1736.6938.7514.22104.8365.2

2001325.5214.7210.294.8710.360.357.475.57.843.724.4636.4738.0613.88106.7066.4

2001425.3414.8610.325.419.611.259.796.38.639.584.5837.5635.0813.18107.6962.7

2002136.4219.0913.487.6715.272.1511.9910.113.430.074.7133.5436.1812.13108.6057.7

2002230.0315.1812.445.6411.951.7110.038.19.933.894.5834.8437.8013.17111.0160.2

2002326.7712.5411.515.0810.181.198.677.58.434.934.7735.5337.5613.34111.5161.1

2002424.6814.9710.145.429.121.67.8588.132.245.0636.3233.5812.19113.4458.3

2003132.4923.17157.2610.231.4711.38.18.631.374.8434.9335.5512.42114.5656.2

2003232.319.1313.356.1912.761.539.26.97.335.404.5736.6936.8613.52116.4459.5

2003326.0918.1712.075.198.831.397.516.26.735.744.5038.0136.9014.03117.8560.1

2003424.6718.2610.215.838.631.287.186.77.232.264.8937.0633.9512.58118.9556.9

2004135.9221.7514.978.7712.182.311.288.87.829.395.1434.8834.4012.00122.3156.7

2004230.5518.8412.926.9310.72.069.437.76.630.354.9137.3736.4013.60124.8759.3

2004324.5312.58115.577.961.328.177.66.130.104.6837.3636.1813.52128.9759.6

2004424.1714.739.825.329.030.857.378.16.229.464.8235.5032.5911.57129.9757.9

2005135.9721.8815.417.6112.951.5311.738.56.129.694.9634.2833.4211.46129.8057.3

2005230.2219.4713.295.8911.041.549.687.15.631.244.8838.6033.4512.91130.8658.9

2005326.9317.2912.74.539.71.048.196.15.632.705.0638.5533.4712.90132.3057.5

2005424.3413.4011.354.318.681.797.296.85.931.094.9839.1033.7213.19135.2557.1

2006136.121.2215.318.0512.741.6311.497.86.128.824.6338.2634.2813.12139.0257.4

2006231.4215.1114.096.33111.49.7375.229.754.9641.1034.7014.26141.2359.7

2006327.0714.0112.275.439.371.47.7674.930.634.9642.4334.2214.52143.0561

2006425.5117.3911.015.169.342.427.577.25.230.144.8243.6231.0513.54146.0857.6

2007135.4118.1412.639.5613.221.5612.2674.828.584.7848.7427.3713.34148.0557.6

2007232.0216.3613.487.1411.41.419.666.5430.554.6051.4328.9714.90149.8359.4

2007327.269.7312.026.19.141.157.9263.932.284.4352.7028.3614.95151.1160.7

2007426.5319.7511.685.359.51.358.346.14.129.144.9453.9826.8314.48155.9257.6

2008137.7920.2614.5410.0413.211.8313.286.33.728.304.7654.4326.0914.20161.6057.4

2008232.1915.8412.747.9511.50.9210.975.63.930.534.5156.3225.9514.62164.2459.4

2008326.3112.6211.575.758.990.788.845.44.430.594.5055.7625.5114.22164.0660.1

2008422.519.589.474.768.270.49.575.85.628.114.9653.3027.3214.56160.4057.9

2009135.5922.3412.59.6813.411.4315.566.95.627.124.9846.5829.3913.69152.7757.4

2009230.6617.1012.675.8512.140.7114.326.3629.965.0145.5229.6413.50150.5759.2

2009326.5413.639.947.259.350.8812.236.86.930.704.8544.1429.6313.08151.9960.6

2009422.3920.019.524.658.220.2910.857.57.828.804.9142.2130.2112.75149.8657.8

2010134.3621.8212.089.1913.091.817.98.18.428.474.7140.7131.7112.91149.5257.7

2010229.816.0012.376.3811.050.9715.246.87.532.194.7841.8632.4313.58149.8060.5

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA WITH TRAMO SEATS

CAUZEINDICATORI-nedesezonalizati

Tax burden/GDPILO Unemployment rateSelf-employment/Active PopulationGovernment employment/Active PopulationIndex of real GDP(2000=100)M1/M2

2000131.137.3739.623.95100.0032.11

2000231.296.9240.963.91100.1735.35

2000330.786.7040.694.00100.2336.27

2000432.656.5541.174.29101.6841.42

2001130.356.8241.484.32104.3536.24

2001230.676.5141.424.31104.8336.69

2001329.085.9441.494.54106.7036.47

2001429.566.2540.544.44107.6937.56

2002130.469.1932.104.64108.6033.54

2002228.258.3732.804.70111.0134.84

2002330.188.1033.184.85111.5135.53

2002429.057.9432.954.93113.4436.32

2003126.547.3733.404.77114.5634.93

2003230.497.1334.404.68116.4436.69

2003329.426.7034.014.59117.8538.01

2003429.186.6532.854.78118.9537.06

2004129.848.0131.175.07122.3134.88

2004228.807.9629.644.99124.8737.37

2004327.808.2128.744.77128.9737.36

2004428.828.0429.924.72129.9735.50

2005129.787.7331.374.91129.8034.28

2005228.527.3430.604.94130.8638.60

2005330.096.5931.245.13132.3038.55

2005429.126.7531.534.88135.2539.10

2006129.877.1030.444.61139.0238.26

2006229.737.2329.185.01141.2341.10

2006330.147.5629.255.03143.0542.43

2006430.407.1530.614.71146.0843.62

2007129.166.3730.194.76148.0548.74

2007230.316.7229.894.65149.8351.43

2007330.286.4830.784.52151.1152.70

2007431.566.0629.704.82155.9253.98

2008131.455.7329.934.73161.6054.43

2008230.455.7929.764.56164.2456.32

2008329.255.8329.154.60164.0655.76

2008427.715.7628.744.84160.4053.30

2009129.236.2828.724.96152.7746.58

2009228.926.5129.115.05150.5745.52

2009329.367.3429.244.95151.9944.14

2009427.677.4529.494.79149.8642.21

2010128.017.3730.184.70149.5240.71

2010228.097.0331.224.82149.8041.86

VARI

Tax burden/GDPILO Unemployment rateSelf-employment/Active PopulationGovernment employment/Active PopulationTaxes on income/GDPIndex of real GDP(2000=100)M1/M2

20001

200020.16-0.451.34-0.04-2.300.173.25

20003-0.51-0.23-0.270.09-0.580.060.92

200041.87-0.140.480.290.601.465.15

20011-2.300.270.310.031.672.66-5.17

200120.31-0.31-0.07-0.01-0.490.480.44

20013-1.59-0.570.080.23-3.081.87-0.21

200140.490.31-0.95-0.100.541.001.08

200210.902.93-8.440.192.260.90-4.02

20022-2.22-0.820.700.07-2.032.411.30

200231.93-0.270.380.15-0.560.500.69

20024-1.13-0.16-0.230.080.341.940.79

20031-2.50-0.570.45-0.161.841.12-1.39

200323.95-0.240.99-0.09-1.071.881.76

20033-1.08-0.43-0.38-0.08-1.001.401.32

20034-0.24-0.05-1.170.180.641.11-0.95

200410.661.35-1.680.302.943.36-2.18

20042-1.04-0.05-1.53-0.08-1.842.562.49

20043-0.990.25-0.90-0.22-1.364.10-0.00

200441.02-0.171.18-0.04-0.250.99-1.87

200510.96-0.311.450.192.29-0.16-1.21

20052-1.26-0.40-0.770.03-1.721.054.32

200531.57-0.750.640.19-1.361.44-0.05

20054-0.970.160.29-0.25-0.222.950.55

200610.750.35-1.09-0.273.743.77-0.84

20062-0.150.14-1.260.41-1.722.212.84

200630.420.330.070.02-0.901.821.33

200640.25-0.411.36-0.32-0.273.031.19

20071-1.24-0.78-0.410.054.401.975.12

200721.160.35-0.30-0.10-2.421.782.70

20073-0.03-0.240.89-0.13-1.041.281.26

200741.28-0.42-1.080.30-0.754.811.28

20081-0.10-0.320.24-0.094.695.690.45

20082-1.000.05-0.17-0.17-2.092.631.88

20083-1.210.05-0.620.04-2.20-0.17-0.56

20084-1.54-0.07-0.410.24-0.99-3.66-2.46

200911.520.52-0.010.124.92-7.63-6.72

20092-0.310.230.390.09-3.83-2.20-1.06

200930.440.830.13-0.111.401.42-1.38

20094-1.700.100.25-0.15-2.60-2.13-1.93

201010.34-0.080.69-0.104.54-0.34-1.50

201020.08-0.341.040.12-2.810.281.15

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA WITH TRAMO SEATS

VAR IIDiferente de ordin 1:

ILO Unemployment rateSelf-employment/Active PopulationTaxes on income/GDPGov.cons/GDPIndex of real GDP(2000=100)C/M1ILO Unemployment rateSelf-employment/Active PopulationTaxes on income/GDPGov.cons/GDPIndex of real GDP(2000=100)C/M1

200017.368391739.6223727.092509416.79096210037.382988

200026.923110340.9593236.60987617.444092100.167091419337.664852-0.44528141.336951-0.48263340.653130.16709141930.281864

200036.69751840.6936257.427380218.35396100.226589847637.184675-0.2255923-0.2656980.81750420.9098680.0594984282-0.480177

200046.552542641.1698767.610234418.414392101.684301339736.431269-0.14497540.4762510.18285420.0604321.4577114921-0.753406

200116.822768441.480676.769949617.727594104.347847644436.0400470.27022580.310794-0.8402848-0.6867982.6635463047-0.391222

200126.509728341.4151577.739911616.29225104.82730581236.464579-0.3130401-0.0655130.969962-1.4353440.47945816760.424532

200135.941214441.4916186.006221317.304485106.698035560236.673413-0.56851390.076461-1.73369031.0122351.87072974820.208834

200146.254673840.541866.153917615.733923107.693146772736.9269230.3134594-0.9497580.1476963-1.5705620.99511121250.25351

200219.18838232.1005676.068474715.293512108.596531241636.8592442.9337082-8.441293-0.0854429-0.4404110.9033844689-0.067679

200228.369604732.8000825.49824415.429323111.007705046536.497395-0.81877730.699515-0.57023070.1358112.4111738048-0.361849

200238.101369133.1755796.091532715.251407111.507491843836.282368-0.26823560.3754970.5932887-0.1779160.4997867973-0.215027

200247.942397432.9502986.151748615.881585113.442678222635.798959-0.1589717-0.2252810.06021590.6301781.9351863788-0.483409

200317.369230633.403025.648738819.324898114.560257033235.913035-0.57316680.452722-0.50300983.4433131.11757881060.114076

200327.129628534.395795.951386219.283885116.441894826635.735553-0.23960210.992770.3026474-0.0410131.8816377934-0.177482

200336.696871634.0140776.148327420.974052117.845561913135.658834-0.4327569-0.3817130.19694121.6901671.4036670865-0.076719

200346.65177232.8475876.721547619.114097118.952728498835.583364-0.0450996-1.166490.5732202-1.8599551.1071665857-0.07547

200418.006438931.1661916.774265417.93649122.312902234235.2297011.3546669-1.6813960.0527178-1.1776073.3601737354-0.353663

200427.956217429.6403896.754015818.91099124.870343008435.270296-0.0502215-1.525802-0.02024960.97452.55744077430.040595

200438.208729928.7437886.658613315.560605128.97424709734.8607240.2525125-0.896601-0.0954025-3.3503854.1039040885-0.409572

200448.041696629.9209196.403105515.480416129.96638338833.944708-0.16703331.177131-0.2555078-0.0801890.9921362911-0.916016

200517.733795631.3730525.782417618.067636129.803258530633.672766-0.3079011.452133-0.62068792.58722-0.1631248575-0.271942

200527.336225330.5984355.758618519.58239130.856876530833.277564-0.3975703-0.774617-0.02379911.5147541.0536180003-0.395202

200536.588325331.2406135.400955220.356083132.295251033833.367561-0.74790.642178-0.35766330.7736931.43837450290.089997

200546.751096331.5282045.398008813.869901135.249843816634.1581110.1627710.287591-0.0029464-6.4861822.95459278280.79055

200617.097217930.435215.942878617.447297139.01857342634.1801250.3461216-1.0929940.54486983.5773963.76872960940.022014

200627.23287629.1784526.121124215.402766141.227452574833.9210070.1356581-1.2567580.1782456-2.0445312.2088791488-0.259118

200637.559993829.2500546.284833717.366514143.046617018533.4850810.32711780.0716020.16370951.9637481.8191644437-0.435926

200647.148218630.606076.621163517.286334146.078061937932.479641-0.41177521.3560160.3363298-0.080183.0314449193-1.00544

200716.369570530.1935086.959620814.44719148.048947373628.093371-0.7786481-0.4125620.3384573-2.8391441.9708854358-4.38627

200726.716285129.8900667.011796116.770928149.828446198528.0616090.3467146-0.3034420.05217532.3237381.7794988249-0.031762

200736.479739530.7803917.031503213.470713151.105183304727.647635-0.23654560.8903250.0197071-3.3002151.2767371062-0.413974

200746.056128229.6973517.1470819.166852155.919597790627.0341-0.4236113-1.083040.11557685.6961394.8144144859-0.613535

200815.732750829.9336797.352417816.528254161.604672609926.310527-0.32337740.2363280.2053378-2.6385985.6850748193-0.723573

200825.786397329.7601087.977116716.423846164.238965520726.0184630.0536465-0.1735710.6246989-0.1044082.6342929108-0.292064

200835.831608929.1450336.559287116.534264164.06493261826.2718760.0452116-0.615075-1.41782960.110418-0.17403290260.253413

200845.758279428.7362096.611178418.770366160.402804359327.368881-0.0733295-0.4088240.05189132.236102-3.66212825881.097005

200916.27881628.7223736.968688318.54331152.769156014828.5301560.5205366-0.0138360.3575099-0.227056-7.63364834451.161275

200926.509773629.112256.077519317.80714150.566226708829.3236890.23095760.389877-0.891169-0.73617-2.2029293060.793533

200937.343363829.2435837.871242717.611213151.987743323830.2744390.83359020.1313331.7937234-0.1959271.42151661490.95075

200947.445993129.4916286.512549619.090209149.85670795230.7230390.10262930.248045-1.35869311.478996-2.13103537180.4486

201017.37086830.1808966.571610417.994944149.519054371631.102609-0.07512510.6892680.0590608-1.095265-0.33765358030.37957

201027.026460131.2190916.60642716.779256149.79572206331.337327-0.34440791.0381950.0348166-1.2156880.27666769140.234718

36.4925795952

MIMIC 4-1-2

10.47-0.380.13

Economia informalaReal GDPGDP 1990Q1/Real GDPPonderea ec.informale ca % din GDP off.

25.47857802820168.6136.4925

25.9299711920202.30.998331873137.0770695451

25.38713207420214.30.997739224236.2793183851

25.40436620820508.30.983435974735.7835057054

26.05068967221045.50.958333135335.757254085

25.15167818221142.20.953949920134.3653660344

25.40949381621519.50.937224377934.1089240858

25.01626930221720.20.928564193733.2707741995

23.95778466421902.40.920839725331.5979664964

23.7021225122388.70.900838369430.5817648692

23.36179171422489.50.896800729230.0075494783

23.15597904222879.80.881502460729.2358084201

23.43436599623105.20.872903069429.2986533631

23.54102809423484.70.858797429828.9564016601

23.07375013823767.80.84856823128.0435754934

22.02078241223991.10.840670081826.5147030738

22.41207151824668.80.817575236726.2444912867

21.77910292625184.60.800830666424.9809593799

21.21091585626012.30.775348585123.5550944698

21.6838025226212.40.769429735523.896419852

22.63060403226179.50.770396684424.9711751831

22.07492542263920.764193695124.1619024044

21.86534122426682.10.755885031523.672298856

21.321195966272780.73937238822.5789228753

21.41162134228038.10.719328342522.0599821851

20.62308082428483.60.708077630620.9152398292

21.17692919428850.50.699072806421.2038060773

21.2642527929461.90.684565489720.8493998713

19.79399805629859.40.675452286419.1494643302

20.28035424230218.30.66743000119.3869589856

20.02574474430475.80.661790666718.9818153633

19.7896835331446.80.641356195218.1788570223

19.15633418632593.40.61879398916.9780153383

18.87744369433124.70.608868910516.4624857937

19.18669963233089.60.60951477216.7499279315

19.192197418323510.623430496717.1372517222

19.54086005630811.40.654582394818.3204621824

20.19800196630367.10.664159567419.2136233943

20.38623327430653.80.657947791119.2113043923

21.314016582302240.667304129220.3712435976

21.39801988830155.90.668811078420.4977161924

21.3702938930211.70.667575806720.4333472003

Adriana:mil.RoN la sf. Perioadei sursa BNR

pituca:lucrator pe cot propriu si lucrator familial neremunerat

pituca:mii persoane

pituca:Labour force participation rate

Adriana:[Billions of dollars]; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Annual data from 1970 To 2007Bureau of Economic Analysis

Adriana:[Billions of dollars]; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Annual data from 1970 To 2007Bureau of Economic Analysis

Adriana:[Billions of dollars]; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Annual data from 1970 To 2007Bureau of Economic Analysis

Adriana:[Billions of dollars]; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Annual data from 1970 To 2007Bureau of Economic Analysis

Adriana:[Billions of dollars]; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Annual data from 1970 To 2007Bureau of Economic Analysis

Adriana:[Billions of dollars]; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Annual data from 1970 To 2007Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP APPROACH

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

EMPLOYMENT APPROACH

GDP APPROACH

Source:National Institute of Statistics, quaterly GDP

INSSE

PIB NOMINALTotal gross value addedTaxes less subsidies on productsGDP BY ACTIVITIESStatistical discrepancyFinal consumptionGross fixed capital formationChange in inventoriesExternal balance of goods and servicesGDP BY EXPENDITURESStatistical discrepancy

2000113538.411895.21643.213538.40.012099.21948.4-127.7-381.513538.40.0

2000217519.815660.61859.217519.80.015294.73279.1205.8-1259.817519.80.0

2000323105.420840.12265.323105.40.018816.74664.9223.7-599.923105.40.0

2000426821.024340.52480.526821.00.023376.85352.8142.8-2051.426821.00.0

2001120395.317947.62447.720395.30.019055.13240.1-345.6-1554.320395.30.0

2001226399.423787.52611.926399.40.023149.35454.8476.5-2681.226399.40.0

2001332939.929770.03169.932939.90.024988.77406.31306.8-761.932939.90.0

2001438211.234614.93596.338211.20.033538.68070.2577.1-3974.738211.20.0

2002126231.723350.22881.526231.70.025057.04202.7-1504.8-1523.226231.70.0

2002234741.431038.83702.634741.40.029827.97050.9199.0-2336.434741.40.0

2002341944.337722.14222.241944.30.030960.910018.22606.0-1640.841944.30.0

2002449099.644811.24288.449099.60.041273.011094.7-220.6-3047.549099.60.0

2003134396.929937.44459.534396.90.032494.55350.9-2009.6-1438.934396.90.0

2003244395.138948.15447.044395.10.039385.99301.2118.5-4410.544395.10.0

2003354354.548403.15951.454354.50.043138.013231.5801.7-2816.754354.50.0

2003464281.158352.35928.864281.10.053800.314613.01963.0-6095.264281.10.0

2004143259.437419.25840.243259.40.041589.06787.3-2224.4-2892.543259.40.0

2004255258.448741.56516.955258.40.050017.112164.7-1342.0-5581.455258.40.0

2004368367.561540.06827.568367.50.051790.017441.24203.1-5066.868367.50.0

2004480482.773230.67252.180482.70.067658.517457.14064.4-8697.380482.70.0

2005152290.344979.27311.152290.30.051030.28146.7-2536.0-4350.652290.30.0

2005265037.457057.47980.065037.40.060420.614988.8-2809.5-7562.565037.40.0

2005378777.469453.09324.478777.40.062691.221427.3678.1-6019.278777.40.0

2005492849.583743.19106.492849.50.076896.123963.83427.4-11437.892849.50.0

2006161828.753663.18165.661828.70.060655.810512.2-3513.0-5826.361828.70.0

2006277102.267605.69496.677102.20.067017.018102.71163.8-9181.377102.20.0

2006392818.482784.110034.392818.40.071553.028001.23695.0-10430.892818.40.0

20064112901.3100217.012684.3112901.30.095641.831655.91570.5-15966.9112901.30.0

2007174162.865821.48341.474162.80.070518.514820.3-312.1-10863.974162.80.0

2007292519.581105.011414.592519.50.079331.125095.61804.3-13711.592519.50.0

20073112222.999730.512492.4112222.90.080283.540302.75448.9-13812.2112222.90.0

20074137101.6121699.415402.2137101.60.0114803.945426.7-3727.7-19401.3137101.60.0

2008193862.881449.412413.493862.80.089759.720859.4-2084.1-14672.293862.80.0

20082116467.3103693.912773.4116467.30.098354.636208.2-275.8-17819.7116467.30.0

20083142490.7125803.916686.8142490.70.0105166.357312.3-1203.2-18784.7142490.70.0

20084161833.2147542.214291.0161833.20.0127591.649884.5194.9-15837.8161833.20.0

2009196616.785723.210893.596616.70.088346.022995.3-8020.2-6704.496616.70.0

20092112073.098648.513424.5112073.00.091745.826564.31017.9-7255.0112073.00.0

20093130288.7118137.212151.5130288.70.093999.341321.02161.6-7193.2130288.70.0

20094152295.3139426.512868.8152295.30.0123182.434945.02206.9-8039.0152295.30.0

GDP BY ACTIVITIESGDP BY EXPENDITURESDIFFERENCEDIFFERENCE/GDP BY ACTIVITIES

2000117322.218152.8830.64.80

2000218717.218895177.80.95

2000320936.620806.9-129.7-0.62

2000423131.822698.3-433.5-1.87

2001125817.926693.5875.63.39

2001227789.828233.6443.81.60

2001329787.230069.5282.30.95

2001432053.831830.4-223.4-0.70

2002133615.134646.91031.83.07

2002236501.537063.1561.61.54

2002338765.438274.6-490.8-1.27

2002441138.140852-286.1-0.70

2003144136.044548.4412.40.93

2003247201.447333.6132.20.28

2003350001.450335333.60.67

2003452452.953741.91289.02.46

2004156159.555923.3-236.2-0.42

2004259209.958639.9-570.0-0.96

2004362305.162908.5603.40.97

2004465602.867488.21885.42.87

2005168124.567516.1-608.4-0.89

2005269940.569467.4-473.1-0.68

2005373608.473579.7-28.7-0.04

2005476048.576721672.50.88

2006179478.179742.4264.30.33

2006283628.183016-612.1-0.73

2006386318.387401.21082.91.25

2006492652.092059.2-592.8-0.64

2007195335.995706.3370.40.39

20072100321.3100573.4252.10.25

20073105450.6104616.7-833.9-0.79

20074113449.3108665.8-4783.5-4.22

20081121265.4122812.81547.41.28

20082126704.0125975.7-728.3-0.57

20083132511.6128675.7-3835.9-2.89

20084129830.2132547.72717.52.09

20091125676.2129441.83765.63.00

20092124949.6119826-5123.6-4.10

20093122563.1120273.6-2289.5-1.87

20094123046.1124944.51898.41.54

pituca:milions of lei curent prices

pituca:milions of lei current prices

TRANSACTION APPROACH

Sursa Eurostat

Total PopulationActive populationActivity rateEmploymentEmployment rateTotal PopulationLabour forceLabour force/ Total PopulationEmploymentEmployment/Total Population

1999Q118091.91088260.19981.455.21999Q118091.91088260.19981.455.2

1999Q218095.811755.2651102260.91999Q218095.811755.2651102260.9

1999Q31813111872.265.511168.361.61999Q31813111872.265.511168.361.6

1999Q418113.711245.562.110423.557.51999Q418113.711245.562.110423.557.5

2000Q118175.710955.360.310028.355.22000Q118175.710955.360.310028.355.2

2000Q218178.711713.664.410897.659.92000Q218178.711713.664.410897.659.9

2000Q318232.611893.265.211129.2612000Q318232.611893.265.211129.261

2000Q418235.811334.162.210556.357.92000Q418235.811334.162.210556.357.9

2001Q118273.610951.859.910100.155.32001Q118273.610951.859.910100.155.3

2001Q218297.21156663.210807.559.12001Q218297.21156663.210807.559.1

2001Q318318.911785.964.31111660.72001Q318318.911785.964.31111660.7

2001Q418346.211108.260.510388.556.62001Q418346.211108.260.510388.556.6

2002Q118390.210148.255.29118.849.62002Q118390.210148.255.29118.849.6

2002Q218396.110629.657.89767.653.12002Q218396.110629.657.89767.653.1

2002Q318415.21080858.79992.154.32002Q318415.21080858.79992.154.3

2002Q418422.610314.1569485.351.52002Q418422.610314.1569485.351.5

2003Q117994.89508.652.88729.848.52003Q117994.89508.652.88729.848.5

2003Q21800110067.555.99367.9522003Q21800110067.555.99367.952

2003Q318036.410184.956.59547.252.92003Q318036.410184.956.59547.252.9

2003Q418035.89625.853.48974.949.82003Q418035.89625.853.48974.949.8

2004Q118083.49605.453.18755.248.42004Q118083.49605.453.18755.248.4

2004Q218091.210059.455.69282.951.32004Q218091.210059.455.69282.951.3

2004Q318117.610113.855.89343.251.62004Q318117.610113.855.89343.251.6

2004Q418126.79832.454.29031.549.82004Q418126.79832.454.29031.549.8

2005Q118182.49740.353.68908.8492005Q118182.49740.353.68908.849

2005Q218184.110020.255.19302.651.22005Q218184.110020.255.19302.651.2

2005Q3182239794.153.79191.250.42005Q3182239794.153.79191.250.4

2005Q418228.39721.553.39055.749.72005Q418228.39721.553.39055.749.7

2006Q118223.19763.853.69001.449.42006Q118223.19763.853.69001.449.4

2006Q218226.110162.955.8944951.82006Q218226.110162.955.8944951.8

2006Q318227.71036456.99633.552.92006Q318227.71036456.99633.552.9

2006Q418236.29787.653.79080.949.82006Q418236.29787.653.79080.949.8

2007Q118246.79796.453.79105.949.92007Q118246.79796.453.79105.949.9

2007Q218246.710102.555.49442.851.82007Q218246.710102.555.49442.851.8

2007Q318249.110304.856.59690.753.12007Q318249.110304.856.59690.753.1

2007Q418249.19773.453.69173.950.32007Q418249.19773.453.69173.950.3

2008Q118249.49735.353.39118.6502008Q118249.49735.353.39118.650

2008Q218249.410059.555.19493.2522008Q218249.410059.555.19493.252

2008Q31823910178.255.89627.252.82008Q31823910178.255.89627.252.8

2008Q4182399805.753.89237.550.62008Q4182399805.753.89237.550.6

2009Q118234.89704.753.29038.649.62009Q118234.89704.753.29038.649.6

2009Q218234.710007.854.99381.351.42009Q218234.710007.854.99381.351.4

2009Q318224.21022656.19527.152.32009Q318224.21022656.19527.152.3

2009Q418224.29757.953.59026.949.52009Q418224.29757.953.59026.949.5

2010Q118210.19721.553.48934.349.12010Q118210.19721.553.48934.349.1

2010Q218210.110185.155.99488.152.12010Q218210.110185.155.99488.152.1

EurostatEurostatEurostatEurostatEurostat

Survey data-LFS Eurostat

Quarterly data

mii persoane2000Q12000Q22000Q32000Q42001Q12001Q22001Q32001Q42002Q12002Q22002Q32002Q42003Q12003Q22003Q32003Q42004Q12004Q22004Q32004Q42005Q12005Q22005Q32005Q42006Q12006Q22006Q32006Q42007Q12007Q22007Q32007Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q32009Q42010Q12010Q22010Q3

Total population22335.322338.322330.722333.422321.122344.622304.522331.822296.422302.322321.422317.22169621708.92166921668.521649.621657.421617.821626.921619.221620.921595.72160121582.921585.921561.821570.221565.121565.121537.621537.621528.621528.621504.421504.421498.621498.621469.92147021462.221462.221431.3

Total employed 15-649118.597659936.79538.59152.79674.19922.89365.48475.68974.59158.38723.48244.68764.58938.18460.18285.68787.58874.58592.385008817.88686.58600.88594.98962.49155.98637.38597.38959.39104.98708.48679.289849101.28764.58630.18904.19065.28619.28553.890249034.4

the unemployed 15-64927816.1764777.8851.7758.5669.9719.71028.8862.1815.9828.8777.4699.7637.7650.8849.6775.8769.5799.3831.1717.1602.9665.8762.2713.9730.3705.2689.7658.3613.7599.2616566.1550.7567.8665.7626.3698.9731.1787.1696.7701.5

De facto active population10045.510581.110700.710316.310004.410432.610592.710085.19504.49836.69974.29552.290229464.29575.89110.99135.29563.396449391.69331.19534.99289.49266.69357.19676.39886.29342.592879617.69718.69307.69295.29550.19651.99332.39295.89530.49764.19350.39340.99720.79735.9

Working age population(15-64)15212.215213.41524115256.715250.515278.315279.815297.41531815315.415329.515343.714932.114929.114940.81493014950.414958.214968.714977.815007.415009.115031.615036.8150251502815039.715048.215043.215043.215049.415049.415043.815043.815040.715040.815036.415036.4150201502015003.715003.714995.1

Activity rate, %66.0469.5570.2167.6265.6068.2869.3265.9362.0564.2365.0762.2560.4263.3964.0961.0261.1063.9364.4362.7062.1863.5361.8061.6362.2864.3965.7362.0861.7463.9364.5861.8561.7963.4864.1762.0561.8263.3865.0162.2562.2664.7964.93

Alternative activity rate%44.9847.3747.9246.1944.8246.6947.4945.1642.6344.1144.6842.8041.5843.6044.1942.0542.2044.1644.6143.4343.1644.1043.0242.9043.3544.8345.8543.3143.0644.6045.1243.2243.1844.3644.8843.4043.2444.3345.4843.5543.5245.2945.43

Hypothetically active population10045.510046.8510043.4310044.6510039.1110049.6810031.6510043.9310028.0010030.6610039.2510037.369757.979763.779745.839745.609737.109740.619722.809726.899723.439724.199712.869715.249707.109708.459697.619701.399699.109699.109686.739686.739682.689682.689671.809671.809669.199669.199656.289656.329652.829652.829638.92

Unofficial employment, %0.005.056.142.63-0.353.675.300.41-5.51-1.97-0.65-5.08-8.16-3.17-1.78-6.97-6.59-1.85-0.82-3.57-4.20-1.99-4.56-4.84-3.74-0.331.91-3.84-4.44-0.850.33-4.07-4.17-1.39-0.21-3.64-4.02-1.461.10-3.27-3.340.701.00

Annual data 1997-2009

LFS series - Detailed annual survey results (lfsa)Total population

mii persoane1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

Total population22327.122396.922356.822338.322344.622302.321708.921657.421609.221575.221551.321516.521484.3

Total employed 15 and over1120011097.11102210897.610807.59767.69367.99282.99114.69291.29353.39369.19243.5

the unemployed 15 and over653.6661.9733.2816.1758.5862.1699.7776.5704.5728.4640.9575.5680.7

De facto active population11853.6011759.0011755.2011713.7011566.0010629.7010067.6010059.409819.1010019.609994.209944.609924.20

Working age population(15 and over)17956.71806118095.818178.718297.218396.11800118091.218204.418228.318247.918244.218229.5

Activity rate, %

Alternative activity rate%53.090638730552.50280172752.579975667452.437741457551.761946958147.661900342146.375449700446.447865394745.439442459746.440357447446.374000640346.218483489446.1928012549

Hypothetically active population11853.611890.657265833911869.36791970311859.546151537811862.890861777811840.433521594811525.39367136811498.051992421811472.462304553711454.411487385311441.722824728711423.247282450511406.1520967792

Unofficial employment, %0.001.120.971.252.5711.3914.4814.3016.8414.3214.4814.8714.93

VARIANTA FINALA INCLUSA IN TEZA

Toate cifrele sunt preluate pentru 15 ani si peste.

Survey data-LFS Eurostat

Annual data 2000-2009

mii persoane2000200120022003200420052006200720082009Correlation coef.

Working age population(15 and over)18178.718297.218396.11800118091.218204.418228.318247.918244.218229.5

Total employed 15 and over10897.610807.59767.69367.99282.99114.69291.29353.39369.19243.5

ILO unemployed 15 and over816.1758.5862.1699.7776.5704.5728.4640.9575.5680.70.3653254092

De facto active population11713.7011566.0010629.7010067.6010059.409819.1010019.609994.209944.609924.20-0.98

Alternative activity rate%64.436400842763.21185755257.782356042955.928003999855.603829486253.938058930854.967276158554.769041917254.508282084254.440330234-0.481

Hypothetically active population11713.711790.057134998711853.784735432111599.196515702411657.318149262611730.260155016611745.66045481811758.289989383211755.90584255211746.4336916281

Unofficial employment0.00224.061224.081531.601597.921911.161726.061764.091811.311822.23

Unofficial employment, %0.001.9411.5215.2115.8819.4617.2317.6518.2118.36

Administrative data-TEMPO DATABASE

15 YEARS AND OVER

mii persoane2000200120022003200420052006200720082009Correlation coef.

Total population(WORKING AGE POPULATION) 1july18337.12518422.7718015.49518100.87618173.17918251.14418250.29318249.12418238.96618224.184

Civil employment8629.38562.583298305.58238.38390.48469.38725.987478410.717

registered unemployed1007.131826.932760.623658.891557.892522.967460.495367.838403.441709.383-0.4968473111

De facto active population9636.4319389.4329089.6238964.3918796.1928913.3678929.7959093.7389150.4419120.1-0.4486754226

Alternative activity rate%52.55150.96650.45449.52548.40248.83748.93049.83150.17050.044-0.502

Hypothetically active population9636.4319681.4399467.4109512.2799550.2759591.2479590.7999590.1859584.8479577.079

Unofficial employment0.000292.007377.787547.888754.083677.880661.004496.447434.406456.979

Unofficial employment, %0.003.114.166.118.577.617.405.464.755.01

TRANSACTION APPROACH

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labour force/population

employment/population

rate(%)

FIG.1. MOVEMENTS IN THE RATIOS OF LABOR FORCE/POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT/POPULATION

CURRENCY DEMAND APPROACH

11

labour force/population

employment/population

rate(%)

FIG.1. MOVEMENTS IN THE RATIOS OF LABOR FORCE/POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT/POPULATION

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION APPROAC

Activity rates

Sursa:Baza de date Tempo, INS

%

Evolutia ratei de activitate a populatiei pentru perioada 2000-2009

SCR APPROACH

% din populatia activa oficiala

Ponderea populatiei ocupate in economia informala

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Date administrative

Date de ancheta

mii persoane

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pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat- thounsand persons

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat- %

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat, thousand persons

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat, %

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat, thousand persons

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat, thousand persons

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat- thounsand persons

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat- %

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat, thousand persons

pituca:15 years and over, Eurostat, %

pituca:Balanta fortei de munca; IMPLICIT ESTE PT. GRUPA DE VARSTA 15 ANI SI PESTE

pituca:15 YEARS AND OVER

pituca:IMPLICIT ESTE PENTRU GRUPA DE VARSTA 15 ANI SI PESTE.SOMERUL INREGISTRAT ARE MINIM 16 ANI.

Somerii inregistrati(ANOFM)

Somerii BIM(AMIGO)

mii persoane

Evolutia numarului de someri pentru perioada 2000-2009

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Populatia ocupata civila(Balanta fortei de munca)

Populatia ocupata(AMIGO)

mii persoane

Evolutia populatiei ocupate pentru perioada 2000-2009

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Activity rates

Sursa:Baza de date Tempo, INS

%

Evolutia ratei de activitate a populatiei pentru perioada 2000-2009

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% din populatia activa oficiala

Ponderea populatiei ocupate in economia informala

2000=100C%ron/persmii.pers%milions of national currency% of GDP%% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of GDP% of GDPPop.ocupata din adm.publica%%persoanemii persoane

PIB in p.curentePIB realDeflator(2000=100)Numerarul in circulatieM2Rata dobanzii 12 luniGDP per capitaTotal PopulationGov.cons/GDPTotal general government revenueTotal general government revenueFinal consumption expenditure of general governmentCollective consumption expenditure of general governmentTAX/GDPTaxes on production and imports, receivableCurrent taxes on income, wealth, etc., receivableSocial contributions, receivableSubsidies, payableSocial benefits other than social transfers in kind, payableGeneral government employmentGeneral government employmentlabor force participation rateILO Unemployment rateRata somajului inregistratSelf-employmentSelf-employedFondul de salariiWages/GDPM13 months interest rateIndex of real GDP(2000=100)Numarul salariatilor in economie-mii pers.ILO Unemployment rateRata somajului inregistrat

199816578.912627.447216890652.18206380.974970.79:13.94312320.935.28917.3448.232.39012.5110.469.421.339.82490765:61.27.29.63594050:1707.975026670.26090.5862.4

199828162.317329.723991507447.110306947.836657.3622396.914.92722722.733.361218.4595.429.18011.369.378.450.539.15482031380.765.55.48.944671732259.61944.89319430.23856.9385.7

1998310821.624483.25791855244.211237506.830653.08:12.97223239.529.941403.8685.927.66010.226.7310.711.5610.14470300:66.35.48.74701060:2106.037333880.19552.87120.9

1998411817.027609.813084112242.811539252.989264.52:16.02103776.531.961893.2925.128.16011.457.88.911.5311.89475187:62.36.610.34045487:2330.355290690.19777.84136.2

199918927.813735.076923076965115210076.407168.71614.4422353.716.02973707.140.781431.1562.338.33013.2410.1614.931.4914.69510042400.660.67.911.937350911950.12413.121294970.27085.969.1

1999211486.016315.340909090970.4138910349.765172.29729.7722356.816.13704869.139.161853.5728.236.62017.748.0310.851.311.47522527411.565.5611.3472346123122705.05537730.23696.7887.2

1999315805.323731.681681681766.6155611417.109568.261062.012234612.46235007.931.931969.7773.928.73011.277.1810.280.9510.9487223395.765.95.710.948879012443.42887.728395430.18373.82116.3

1999418353.926332.711621233969.7173713412.245359.971179.3222328.714.43625617.131.232649.6104126.4208.616.9510.862.376.91512686415.662.5711.542713732200.23184.30988970.17362.36127.5

2000113538.41562386.7160713610.4660.86699.4822335.320.47885499.240.622772.51408.437.09013.99.0514.141.3312.22526779431.860.68.112.239743152067.33112.94231730.230437066.8177.24433.98.112.2

2000217519.81835495.5214614850.995848.53821.6422338.317.08186417.436.632992.71520.333.09013.476.7512.872.5110.25522849430.264.96.711.248576482428.73732.684264710.213525045.6190.74504.36.711.2

2000323105.422269.4103.8227716326.959543.44997.2522330.715.8318689029.8236581857.927.14011.46.179.571.598.19533705454.165.66.210.249711602489.23917.635450550.170592241.841104474.66.210.2

2000426821.024738.2108.4257418505.996146.971107.6822333.417.58588639.332.214716.72398.428.54011.066.7710.711.739.24567569492.762.56.610.544535642320.94615.705232150.172766448.71122.24374.16.610.5

2001120395.316263.9125.4237819155.083848.14728.6322321.121.46677988.139.174378.21959.136.31013.888.4413.991.7211.07550837471.960.37.510.3416269022224776.45187350.234694251.0180.34467.17.510.3

2001226399.419228137.3296420849.75846.9860.5222344.615.94519453.435.814209.41883.632.45011.997.9512.512.0911.35535596469.863.56.38.748339842424.15764.969852820.218764945.22954529.76.38.7

2001332939.923785.8138.5326423514.50737.521066.4122304.514.72359447.528.684849.92170.225.52010.294.8710.360.357.47592762511.264.75.57.850139202472.16051.724226580.184857634.97117.54551.75.57.8

2001438211.226207.6145.8356427051.186836.561173.5622331.814.864011705.930.635679.72541.525.34010.325.419.611.259.79549792497.160.76.38.642937602258.26557.137190840.1721015934.2129.44470.36.38.6

2002126231.716851155.7334127532.598534.88755.7722296.419.091011182.742.635007.92236.436.42013.487.6715.272.1511.99541711470.954.510.113.430076911837.56519.194959650.249923433.6283.24377.710.113.4

2002234741.420363.8170.6396230091.179631.02913.0822302.315.181612274.535.335274.32355.430.03012.445.6411.951.7110.03541484477.256.98.19.935340482089.97139.818412150.2061048330.59100.64404.28.19.9

2002341944.324945.3168.1423431733.245324.671117.5522321.412.540712978.730.945260.12349.126.77011.515.0810.181.198.67552694505.857.67.58.437039532141.37203.805202620.1721127424.79123.24395.27.58.4

2002449099.627629.2177.7455737371.145720.141238.0222317.214.968813742.627.997349.63282.224.68010.145.429.121.67.85559379511.75588.1326199719427745.018977550.1581357220.41136.5433188.1

2003134396.917708.8194.2458736945.115.46816.222169623.172712784.337.177970.74065.732.490157.2610.231.4711.3536833460538.18.629823951816.68230.958663510.2391290416.9287.54376.58.18.6

2003244395.121346.3208525438849.915.17983.3021708.919.128916380.336.98492.34331.832.30013.356.1912.761.539.2523953460.156.16.97.335641412078.38764.881902830.1971425516.47105.44420.56.97.3

2003354354.526451205.5581441446.816.641220.682166918.168316017.929.479875.35037.126.09012.075.198.831.397.51522917458.456.66.26.736397842137.78879.976649590.1631575517.86130.64402.86.26.7

2003464281.129011.4221.6579846075.117.641338.8721668.518.263717911.927.8611740.15988.324.67010.215.838.631.287.18535788470.853.56.77.2310485718539585.545709560.1491707619.65143.34333.86.77.2

2004143259.418833.2229.757774814617.95869.9121649.621.754817681.740.8794114568.935.92014.978.7712.182.311.28554999493.453.38.87.828226701604.810317.766214710.2391679320.25934404.78.87.8

2004255258.422846.7241.9689050660.317.941054.9121657.418.842218857.934.1310411.9505530.55012.926.9310.72.069.43547720493.855.77.76.6030531341736.410774.61287320.1951893020.22112.84453.67.76.6

2004368367.529041.9235.4767056740.4171343.4321617.812.584319971.829.218603.64176.724.530115.577.961.328.17529306473.7567.66.130438581743.710883.305698230.1592120118.7143.44449.97.66.1

2004480482.731807.5253746464461.715.781470.7421626.914.729523476.529.1711854.7575524.1709.825.329.030.857.37520629474.254.48.16.228964991698.611852.745319970.1472290617.41157.14398.38.16.2

2005152290.319947.9262.17785.96795711.3922.6921619.221.881721009.240.18114425498.935.97015.417.6112.951.5311.73522195482.953.78.56.128922421705.412343.66730.2362329712.2898.54535.78.56.1

2005265037.423892.2272.29581.5742007.881105.0521620.919.468021763.833.4612661.5608530.22013.295.8911.041.549.68527004489.455.27.15.631304071843.713045.36880.201286418.441184577.87.15.6

2005378777.429770.6264.610341.280151.97.151378.5421595.717.290523556.929.9136216546.326.93012.74.539.71.048.1952419549653.86.15.632023911850.413160.64810.167308997.391474554.66.15.6

2005492849.533147.4280.111385.586331.95.471534.532160113.399327395.129.512441.25979.224.34011.354.318.681.797.29507005484.153.46.85.930223751819.714080.59640.152337605.39163.74501.26.85.9

2006161828.721339.6289.711479.9863146.88988.7321582.921.22352481840.1413122.2604036.10015.318.0512.741.6311.49479518452.253.67.86.128136501643.614699.81720.238334897.19105.445827.86.1

2006277102.225797.7298.913557.3938357.631195.1221585.915.113827786.236.0411653.15363.731.42014.096.33111.49.73528369504.155.875,230231461813.315375.06640.199390678127.44612.275.2

2006392818.432230.928814423.1981218.461494.8121561.814.006828803.831.0313000.9598427.07012.275.439.371.47.76536771514.256.974.931746331864.915649.64740.169421508.65159.24608.574.9

20064112901.335848.8314.915130.11104028.381661.9621570.217.392833382.529.5719636.79038.625.51011.015.169.342.427.57485469471.353.77.25.229496651776.817674.46270.157487268.5177.145757.25.2

2007174162.822651.9327.414985.6112348.77.131050.4021565.118.143929407.339.65134566409.635.41012.639.5613.221.5612.26468396468.453.774.828002101727.818050.11160.243547537.1111.94707.174.8

2007292519.527358.2338.217305.4116127.47.181268.6321565.116.357334529.337.3215133.77208.732.02013.487.1411.41.419.66465172465.255.46.543086593185819513.24240.211597287.41135.14742.86.54

20073112222.934148.2328.618907.3126507.96.871585.5221537.69.725333993.730.29109145198.727.26012.026.19.141.157.92456826456.856.563.933261332014.419972.54860.178666676.81168.74743.763.9

20074137101.638283.5358.121441.7148043.67.71777.5221537.619.748042038.530.6627074.812896.726.53011.685.359.51.358.34483202483.253.66.14.128482011776.122340.96510.163799147.63189.14717.26.14.1

2008193862.824588.6381.721558.9151794.19.621142.1421528.620.262139751.742.3519018.68888.937.79014.5410.0413.211.8313.28475193475.253.36.33.727555041737.622965.47170.245826299.54121.44803.66.33.7

20082116467.329996.8388.323598.216146311.21393.3521528.615.837742616.536.5918445.78621.132.19012.747.9511.50.9210.97465435465.45.63.930708891889.425058.7980.2159093411.25148.14827.45.63.9

20083142490.737372.9381.323610.8166012.912.081737.9221504.412.618441852.629.3717980.18403.526.31011.575.758.990.788.844709844715.44.431132951907.125359.65460.1789257112.16184.64834.65.44.4

20084161833.239482.8409.925286.8173628.815.991836.0321504.419.575443094.426.6331679.513895.722.5009.474.768.270.49.57492809492.85.85.627564941752.727082.21510.1679254916.061954738.65.85.6

2009196616.723051.9419.123943.8174881.714.391072.2521498.622.343938137.739.4721587.99952.935.59012.59.6813.411.4315.564828556.95.626323681678.626794.5720.2778145614.521144724.46.95.6

20092112073.027374.2409.424221.217948211.811273.3021498.617.099039187.334.9719163.48663.430.66012.675.8512.140.7114.325017956.3629982631839.526412.06370.2368170511.68135.34618.16.36

20093130288.734724.7375.223878.7182531.89.191617.3721469.913.629639757.230.5117757.87659.826.5409.947.259.350.8812.234961626.86.931390781900.325453.77820.195805799.11171.44505.16.86.9

20094152295.336916.6412.523973188017.39.851719.452147020.005742119.127.6630467.813928.122.3909.524.658.220.2910.854789677.57.828103051741.325477.36350.1677936210.13182.44367.77.57.8

2010196707.422459.10430.624246.3187820.67.461046.4521462.221.816038239.339.5421097.709620.6034.36012.089.1913.091.817.94577048.18.427681551734.425815.7850.267764607.17111.64302.68.18.4

20102114707.427224.60421.326103192278.86.41268.4921462.215.997340312.635.1418350.108400.2029.80012.376.3811.050.9715.244863596.87.532788231988.625177.45260.21980491.25.99134.74264.36.87.5

20103136605.433863.5403.426775.5192590.46.921580.1021431.311.911545888.6033.5916271.806662.6027.36013.415.468.490.7712.074808026.97.3533254202045.523473.2240.1726.62167.74194.16.97.35

2010426792.9199586.46.746.876.26181.34101.6

Eurostat, NISEurostat, NISEurostat, NIS-Price IndexBNRBNREurostatEurostat-Labour market-Employment and unemployment (Labour Force Survey)- LFS series - Detailed quarterly survey results (from 1998) (lfsq)Eurostat, |Government accountsEurostat, GDP-Final Consumption AggregatesEurostat, GDP-Final Consumption AggregatesEurostatEurostat, Government non-finance accountsEurostat, Government non-finance accountsEurostat, Government non-finance accountsEurostat, Government non-finance accountsEurostat, Government non-finance accountsBaza de date, TEMPOEurostatBaza TEMPOBNRBaza TEMPOEUROSTAT-Employment and Unemployment (LFS)Eurostat, Volumes, Index(2000=100)

POPULATIA OCUPATA-ANCHETA FORTEI DE MUNCA IN GOSPODARII-0.690540792

-0.5723747803

Currency over GDP deflatorC/M2Real GDP(2000=100)nominal 12 months interest rateGov.cons/GDPGDP per capitaTAX/GDPWages/GDPReal M1 (2000=100)Social benefitsReal disposable Income (Yd=Y-T+Social benefits)(2000=100)Private consumption expenditurePrivate consumption expenditure/GDPNominal 3 months interest rateInflation rateReal disposable income(2000=100)RR_12 monthsRR_3monthsReal growth rate

200011853.520.11807095431562360.8620.4788699.4837.0922.99504012.2211731.71847750869326.768.9066.812.779823.537993079656.5362.32

200022247.120.14450209461835448.5317.0818821.6433.0921.31549710.2514155.26458638741230270.2045.613.1312274.867204188544.0241.1917.4806375216

200032193.640.139462586422269.443.4415.8318997.2527.1416.9657058.1918041.355202312115158.765.6041.842.9716218.299075144539.3137.7521.3326795249

200042374.540.139090054224738.246.9717.58581107.6828.5417.2170719.2419967.294280442818660.169.6048.712.7017681.07619926243.1144.8011.0860642855

200111896.330.124144588716263.948.1421.4667728.6336.3123.42553611.0712159.111866028714676.972.0051.012.6710358.665526315844.2947.09-34.2559280788

200122158.780.14215992341922846.915.9451860.5232.4521.84557111.3515170.521922796818939.971.7045.222.0012988.197159504744.0242.3718.2250259778

200132356.680.138807928223785.837.5214.72351066.4125.5218.3761927.4719490.431805054220138.861.1034.971.8017713.817703971135.0932.5823.7039733722

200142444.440.131750226926207.636.5614.86401173.5625.3417.1669689.7922132.618930041127858.972.9034.22.4319566.860027434833.3231.0110.1817050509

200212145.790.12134706431685134.8819.0910755.7736.4224.85593111.9912731.724913294820049.176.4033.621.3010711.698689788133.1531.91-35.7018574765

200222322.390.131666490120363.831.0215.1816913.0830.0320.55614510.0316291.395076201624553.670.7030.591.7014248.861418522928.8328.4120.8462405792

200232518.740.133424739924945.324.6712.54071117.5526.7717.1767068.6720435.682153480125700.861.3024.790.6318272.344372397423.8924.0022.4982567104

200242564.430.121938996427629.220.1414.96881238.0224.6815.7776387.8522980.381159257233923.469.1020.411.9020811.378007878417.9018.1610.7591410005

200312362.000.124157195417708.815.4623.1727816.2232.4923.93664511.313958.906740473724523.871.3016.921.0711957.439335736414.2415.69-35.9054912918

200322525.960.135238443321346.315.1719.1289983.3032.319.7468539.216413.380721153830893.669.6016.470.8314449.751298076914.2215.5120.5406351644

200332829.200.14027620952645116.6418.16831220.6826.0916.3476677.5121535.490948905133262.761.2017.861.2019549.105085158115.2616.4623.9137461762

200342616.430.12583803429011.417.6418.26371338.8724.6714.9177067.1823934.266972021742060.265.4019.651.3721851.512919675116.0518.049.6797852633

200412515.020.119989199518833.217.9521.7548869.9135.9223.85731111.2814192.54847191993217874.4020.250.7312068.186121027417.0919.37-35.0834499542

200422848.280.136003932122846.717.9418.84221054.9130.5519.5078259.4318018.944158743339605.271.7020.220.5015864.803141794117.3519.6221.3107703417

200433258.280.13517705229041.91712.58431343.4324.5315.9290068.1724291.663976210743186.463.2018.70.9021918.841227697515.9617.6427.1163888001

200442950.200.11578968631807.515.7814.72951470.7424.1714.7390547.3726467.038102766855803.869.3017.410.8024122.542059288514.8616.489.5227929302

200512970.580.114570978719947.911.321.8817922.6935.9723.61888811.7315114.510217474239588.275.7012.280.5712774.314799694810.6711.65-37.2855458618

200523520.020.129130727823892.27.8819.46801105.0530.2220.06105229.6818985.568714180847759.173.408.440.8016672.70305657617.027.5819.7730086876

200533908.240.129020023229770.67.1517.29051378.5426.9316.71116778.1924192.938488284249070.262.307.390.5721754.59039304616.556.7824.6038456065

200544064.800.131880567933147.45.4713.39931534.5324.3415.16120537.2927496.844073545264454.969.405.390.8725080.3040699754.564.4811.3427341068

200613962.690.133001598821339.66.8821.2235988.7336.123.781156011.4916089.974777355947533.676.907.190.4913637.74225060416.366.66-35.6221000742

200624535.730.144480204625797.77.6315.11381195.1231.4219.94130709.7320200.312084309155363.971.8080.3917690.4278220147.217.5820.891206958

200635008.020.146992998432230.98.4614.00681494.8127.0716.86146357.7626005.266305555658552.163.108.650.0323504.32608333338.438.6224.9371067963

200644804.730.137045524535848.88.3817.39281661.9625.5115.65154747.5729421.024699904776005.167.308.50.6826706.94771991117.657.7711.2249425241

200714577.150.13338472122651.97.1318.14391050.4035.4124.341672412.2617408.097678680557062.576.907.10.1014630.95678680517.026.99-36.8126687644

200725116.910.149020816827358.27.1816.35731268.6332.0221.09176609.6621239.544589000664197.469.407.410.4318596.9119160266.726.9520.7766235945

200735753.900.149455488634148.26.879.72531585.5227.2617.80202887.9227546.862793670169369.561.806.810.7424842.03818015826.086.0224.8188842833

200745987.630.144833684138283.57.719.74801777.5226.5316.30223168.3431321.647294051987729.164.007.630.8528128.60807595646.806.7312.1098623061

200815648.130.142027259324588.69.6220.26211142.1437.7924.472164813.2818563.538831543170741.175.409.540.7415297.89045847528.818.73-35.7723301161

200826077.310.146152369329996.811.215.83771393.3532.1921.522341810.9723629.394524851979908.968.6011.250.4320339.035830543410.7210.7721.9947455325

200836192.180.142222682737372.912.0812.61841737.9226.3117.80242788.8430841.22074744387186.261.2012.160.3327537.738481510611.7111.7924.5896228931

200846169.020.145637129339482.815.9919.57541836.0322.516.73225789.5734376.230114662195912.159.3016.060.5430597.884849963415.3715.445.6455345986

200915713.150.136914268323051.914.3922.34391072.2535.5927.731943615.5618435.785013123466758.169.1014.520.8714848.679663564813.4013.53-41.6153362983

200925916.270.1349505827374.211.8117.09901273.3030.6623.571995714.3222901.873913043572582.464.8011.680.1618981.782657547611.6311.5018.7502982401

200936364.260.130819396934724.79.1913.62961617.3726.5419.542147612.2329755.966692430776241.558.509.110.0425509.08289445639.149.0626.8519262663

200945811.640.127504224336916.69.8520.00571719.4522.3916.731923910.8532659.496334545592714.660.9010.130.4828653.66844363649.339.616.3122215599

201015630.820.129092868422459.107.4621.81601046.4534.3626.691775717.918762.044115188165894.768.107.170.7014741.92692986536.716.43-39.1625989392

201026195.820.13575599627224.606.415.99731268.4929.821.951910515.2423262.75873724197329163.905.990.2219113.36216472826.175.7621.2185706462

VECM AND GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

BEST MODEL

Coefficients1.80273290914.4260142032-0.15430053181.8577506411-16.4017384346

LN_PIBRLN_TAXLN_Rr12LN_WAGESC^CtildaECM1-ECVelocityInfotrmal sectorPondere

2000Q19.9120090.2710154.0347712.9816527.58308122756.38356498821.19951623937.32561.3531.62336.6508522002

2000Q29.9134660.2722723.7846442.9774287.62201889966.41693916051.20507973917.40691.3381.61336.5208047264

2000Q39.9140750.2683643.6714792.9803667.62873939156.44095651591.18778287567.46131.3291.57836.0824887574

2000Q49.9286090.2825553.7637552.99287.72661091486.47601847161.25059244327.61311.3041.63136.7161726969

2001Q19.9544910.2650883.7907592.9930157.69219274276.51890948961.17328325317.44581.3371.56935.8788845025

2001Q29.9589590.2674753.7846443.0118637.74677068116.56292253211.1838481497.44151.3381.58436.0693117744

2001Q39.9766640.2552253.5579163.0241157.78221480516.652585331.1296294757.60141.3121.48334.7311934776

2001Q49.9860180.2590023.5061583.0116957.80070764836.65436111761.14634653077.70271.2961.48634.7591911155

2002Q19.9943930.2659173.5010433.0014467.82816058556.65120816671.17695241897.51091.3311.56635.7677481034

2002Q210.016260.2487753.3614172.9835547.78001570226.67893401881.10108168347.62221.3141.44734.1896478569

2002Q310.020750.263713.173462.967777.8538916246.68670741851.16718420557.64361.3111.53035.2585646186

2002Q410.038030.2549952.8848012.9541017.86561677866.73700528681.12861149187.81221.2851.45034.1911186162

2003Q110.047860.2354122.6560552.9429657.81127072536.76933386961.04193685567.75961.2951.34932.8314364622

2003Q210.064070.2661592.6546492.9366137.96499619896.78697268461.17802351437.65451.3151.54935.4120007398

2003Q310.076010.2578612.7252352.9249857.91730038226.77600393371.14129644857.80331.2911.47434.4254464044

2003Q410.085450.2560112.7757092.9172287.90393131786.77082299561.13310832227.81661.2901.46234.2559805163

2004Q110.113390.2611362.8384932.9223727.97685166286.82106001781.1557916457.74131.3061.51034.8210581354

2004Q210.133990.2530632.8535932.9143847.96108709796.84102666561.12006043237.84511.2921.44733.9679978679

2004Q310.166180.2453232.7700862.9059287.98203575546.8962326731.08580308248.01991.2681.37632.9820909037

2004Q410.173940.253252.6986732.9142048.05750378556.93661568861.1208880977.99011.2731.42733.6384862129

2005Q110.172860.2606472.3674362.9238698.15736126637.00373394221.1536273247.93891.2811.47834.3020550407

2005Q210.180870.250921.9487632.9313468.20724118487.09666570091.11057548398.15071.2491.38733.099030041

2005Q310.191580.2630361.8794652.9354998.2985819997.13438092711.1642010728.20121.2431.44733.8599363789

2005Q410.213770.2555721.5173232.9377238.36555921297.23439391091.1311653028.26591.2361.39833.178653249

2006Q110.241520.2613991.8500282.9396888.39368935747.23673367071.15695568678.19831.2491.44533.7494652142

2006Q210.257150.2602541.9754692.9382478.39476565497.24287775441.15188790058.32621.2321.41933.3795588962

2006Q310.269550.263462.1317972.9477198.4247844657.2587067631.1660777028.42511.2191.42133.3876069912

2006Q410.290750.2654012.0347062.9631528.51524515487.34057655931.17466859568.47221.2151.42733.4203218404

2007Q110.304710.2558561.9487632.9714178.52678036037.39435807031.132422298.59221.1991.35832.4937734255

2007Q210.316340.2647591.9050882.9819178.6133964067.44156931151.17182709448.60731.1991.40533.0839618769

2007Q310.323980.2645171.8050052.9942578.6644656937.4937096941.1707559998.74701.1801.38232.7730078636

2007Q410.355870.2742711.9169232.9940468.74746519577.53353785421.21392734158.79911.1771.42933.3279953111

2008Q110.392940.2734822.1758872.9933878.76961783887.55918262251.21043521638.77221.1851.43433.3314034551

2008Q210.408470.2658432.3721113.0003478.74645643537.56983154151.17662489388.88471.1721.37832.5806987013

2008Q310.405340.2565462.4604433.0071568.69868497687.5632087371.13547623988.96181.1611.31831.7907358362

2008Q410.383820.2445732.7324183.0197938.58840800437.50592443251.08248357178.94231.1611.25730.9965540146

2009Q110.336440.2563942.5952553.1076178.73963384917.60483036341.13480348568.74011.1831.34232.2250836723

2009Q210.321160.2540082.4535883.0911518.69279719177.5685541761.12424301578.77711.1761.32231.9832909907

2009Q310.327860.2574512.212663.0733438.72420676427.58472498161.13948178268.83521.1691.33232.1053226444

2009Q410.315190.2442462.2332353.0553158.60625435877.52521809361.08103626518.78371.1741.27031.2825445743

2010Q110.312140.2469411.9035993.050678.654917897.56195351661.09296437348.69161.1861.29731.6581388085

2010Q210.315620.2475461.8196993.0427458.66209227997.5664501681.0956421128.76211.1771.29031.5593314126

Intercept

Coefficients1.8781393.92643-0.1388541.704996-16.625

EC

LN_PIBRLN_TAXLN_Rr3LN_WAGESLN_real M1(2000=100)C^CtildaDifferenceM1-ECVelocity moneyInformal sectorPonderea sectorului informal in sectorul formal

2000Q19.9120090.2710154.1322822.9816528.52527.56517294636.50105151981.06412142647.46104390291.32850163181.413687051533.9483593025

2000Q29.9134660.2722723.7181962.9774288.61207.62314051166.55408356271.0690569497.54296084981.31426719521.405026477933.8300763104

2000Q39.9140750.2683643.6309852.9803668.64917.62605868436.57234622381.05371246057.59534899131.30528235261.375392279433.4312552239

2000Q49.9286090.2825553.8022082.99288.86377.70650044656.59706801781.10943242867.7542625351.28040660931.420524614234.0077626631

2001Q19.9544910.2650883.8520612.9930158.61907.67997177296.63912229711.04084947587.57819969751.31356936971.367227989933.245915248

2001Q29.9589590.2674753.7464413.0118638.62537.74453721056.69431534621.05022186427.57508644541.31469905611.380725693733.419261843

2001Q39.9766640.2552253.4836993.0241158.73117.78706328266.78494018591.00212309687.72894361171.29081857771.293559110432.2002199987

2001Q49.9860180.2590023.434313.0116958.84917.80514333086.7881901081.01695322297.83212455511.27500755761.296623044932.2257486578

2002Q19.9943930.2659173.4629193.0014468.68797.82657703036.7824725441.04410448637.64378798411.30751834311.36518576833.1447265671

2002Q210.016260.2487753.3467412.9835548.72337.78596542446.80916780110.97679762327.74653130311.29299935781.262998699631.7062441821

2002Q310.020750.263713.1780542.967778.81087.84955070846.81411185311.03543885537.77538766471.28877818471.334451008332.6809243179

2002Q410.038030.2549952.8992212.9541018.94087.86319759996.8619775821.00122001787.93960820431.26429790261.265840368631.7075862271

2003Q110.047860.2354122.7530242.9429658.80167.80608163036.88175289120.92432873927.87724758921.27555467651.179031845830.4657999022

2003Q210.064070.2661592.7414852.9366138.83257.94802430856.90296962611.04505468247.78744109871.29234621131.350572459432.8207190137

2003Q310.076010.2578612.8009332.9249858.94467.90978748596.89731431971.01247316627.93216969221.27027161431.286115923331.9213734942

2003Q410.085450.2560112.8925922.9172288.94977.89430034986.88909107911.00520927077.944490751.26948980341.276102919431.7667691237

2004Q110.113390.2611362.9637252.9223728.89717.96579190516.94045968061.02533222457.87179901441.28476222291.317308107932.2821565415

2004Q210.133990.2530632.9765492.9143848.96517.95738332736.96374917220.99363415517.97150108881.27127750311.263184747731.5039623698

2004Q310.166180.2453232.8701692.9059289.10577.98780389597.0245603090.96324358698.14242047971.24854519921.202653156130.6034986349

2004Q410.173940.253252.8021482.9142049.11098.05705867.06269020250.99436839758.11657475411.2534770281.246417943631.2031356603

2005Q110.172860.2606472.4553062.9238699.09258.1487131987.12530099771.02341220028.06909463481.26071888611.290235089131.808806508

2005Q210.180870.250922.0255132.9313469.26128.1979914397.21277162340.98521981568.27601802241.23016527661.21198320730.7103631662

2005Q310.191580.2630361.9139772.9354999.36548.28824700177.25545456031.03279244158.33262503821.22309355731.263201781231.4053221936

2005Q410.213770.2555721.4996232.9377239.39718.36194265417.35845708611.0034855688.39357251691.21685610981.221097544430.7831174621

2006Q110.241520.2613991.8961192.9396889.35538.38523558057.35887070491.02636487568.32892310041.22963315621.262052281431.3044680447

2006Q210.257150.2602542.0255132.9382479.47818.3896713577.36780224381.02186911328.45623017661.2129695841.239496153230.9666583235

2006Q310.269550.263462.1540852.9477199.59128.42384540087.3893881531.03445724788.55673786631.20017115871.241525753830.974009811

2006Q410.290750.2654012.050272.9631529.64698.51201147957.46993303111.04207844848.60480700641.19593036691.246253261131.0038922211

2007Q110.304710.2558561.9444812.9714179.72468.52953354337.52493286921.00460067418.71998147991.1817353081.18717208730.1570786852

2007Q210.316340.2647591.9387422.9819179.77918.60503264737.56547496691.03955768048.7395281061.18042300171.227117797530.6965940617

2007Q310.323980.2645171.7950872.9942579.91788.65941815527.62081067091.03860748438.87918821671.16271665251.207606217430.4123888194

2007Q410.355870.2742711.9065752.99404610.01318.74177009727.66486421471.07690588258.93616226861.15887219691.247996285930.9195560423

2008Q110.392940.2734822.1667652.9933879.98268.77104274217.69723481281.07380792938.9088382481.16658757411.252690987330.9226694089

2008Q210.408470.2658432.3767643.00034710.06138.7529238137.70910988251.04381393059.01746167861.15425719241.204829736830.2365660507

2008Q310.405340.2565462.4672523.00715610.09738.70958591527.70227600441.00730991089.09000607311.14470110541.153068768329.5138781372

2008Q410.383820.2445732.7369623.01979310.02478.60625293967.64595417530.96029876449.06444622551.14555481291.100074871428.786614892

2009Q110.336440.2563942.6049093.1076179.87498.73175669887.72504360541.00671309348.86817074561.16556619131.173390746129.9113246681

2009Q210.321160.2540082.4423473.0911519.90148.68818819277.69084356130.99734463148.90400814411.15915886791.156080873929.6901008133

2009Q310.327860.2574512.2038693.0733439.97478.7170414787.7061781481.01086332998.96383496611.15216980671.164686207429.8017598492

2009Q410.315190.2442462.2628043.0553159.86478.60247592037.64346109850.95901482188.90568772271.15826989691.110797998729.0485894372

2010Q110.312140.2469411.8609753.050679.78458.65520518287.68560863210.96959655068.8149222011.16985037021.134282883729.392503417

2010Q210.315620.2475461.7509373.0427459.85778.66588371987.6939116790.97197204088.88575634951.16091636931.128378252729.3020455834

Intercept

Coefficients1.8028334.775461-0.156121.855613-16.47344

EC

LN_PIBRLN_TAXLN_Rn12LN_WAGESLN_real M1(2000=100)C^CtildaDifferenceM1-ECVelocity moneyInformal sectorPonderea sectorului informal in sectorul formal

2000Q19.9120090.2710154.1085762.9816528.52527.5818398126.28761824911.29422156297.23094376641.37077666761.774088721238.5057653329

2000Q29.9134660.2722723.8821822.9774288.61207.61797581616.31775149871.30022431747.31179348141.35581865451.762868384638.3673556497

2000Q39.9140750.2683643.7713812.9803668.64917.62316128296.34159946711.28156181587.3674996361.34564987991.724533503537.9009874936

2000Q49.9286090.2825553.8495092.99288.86377.72800757356.37867719061.34933038297.51436458081.32128390811.782848521538.5752928149

2001Q19.9544910.2650883.8741132.9930158.61907.68781330026.42189589461.26591740567.35313176781.35377568561.713768203637.6844214424

2001Q29.9589590.2674753.8480183.0118638.62537.74631592876.46899949771.2773164317.34799187871.35533070321.731186176637.886970324

2001Q39.9766640.2552253.6248743.0241158.73117.77730790156.55849086771.21881703377.51224967471.32805277141.618653339536.4644719178

2001Q49.9860180.2590023.5989553.0116958.84917.79320827846.55635432841.23685394997.61222382811.31183977581.622554208436.4942161758

2002Q19.9943930.2659173.5519143.0014468.68797.82965518086.55977891811.26987626277.41801620771.34731344881.710921367137.5662282285

2002Q210.016260.2487753.4346322.9835548.72337.77232621566.58431090531.18801531037.5353136161.32924261821.579160581535.8892985178

2002Q310.020750.263713.2055882.967778.81087.85821179956.59887497921.25933682037.55148969971.32698982571.671127147637.0248775084

2002Q410.038030.2549953.0027082.9541018.94087.85405586266.63633718491.21771867777.72310954441.29973943041.582716980535.8908602046

2003Q110.047860.2354122.7382562.9429658.80167.79888199816.67468117321.12420082497.67737550341.30876234931.471311712734.4480344607

2003Q210.064070.2661592.719322.9366138.83257.9661064556.69507453071.27103192437.56146385681.33096847261.691703418937.1879785349

2003Q310.076010.2578612.8118092.9249858.94467.9119890556.68058390611.23140514897.71323770951.30632691221.608617685836.1397027615

2003Q410.085450.2560112.8701692.9172288.94977.89666804246.67409749631.22257054617.72712947461.30520007891.595699173235.9597342577

2004Q110.113390.2611362.887592.9223728.89717.97833894086.73129415711.24704478377.65008645521.32199682441.648589243936.5599455741

2004Q210.133990.2530632.8870332.9143848.96517.96218932616.75369683911.2084924877.75664275681.30649177971.578885500235.6539701305

2004Q310.166180.2453232.8332132.9059289.10577.97597176716.80444134821.17153041897.93413364771.28132200081.501107700334.6078118148

2004Q410.173940.253252.7587432.9142049.11098.05480014026.84541464191.20938549827.90155765331.28758663121.557188599535.3042143518

2005Q110.172860.2606472.4248032.9238699.09258.1582463786.91353679471.24470958337.84779725181.2962694721.613479034336.0086613774

2005Q210.180870.250922.0643282.9313469.26128.19638793666.99812926241.19825867418.06297916391.2626685241.513003511434.7318474596

2005Q310.191580.2630361.9671122.9354999.36548.29643948627.04032132661.25611815968.10929932011.25677689251.578660277335.5392577904

2005Q410.213770.2555721.6992792.9377239.39718.34674128087.12626716211.22047411878.17658396611.2491487941.524553773434.8163102813

2006Q110.241520.2613991.9286192.9396889.35538.39243822667.14413749661.24830072998.1069872461.26329543751.576972616835.4219994878

2006Q210.257150.2602542.0320882.9382479.47818.39632108497.153488