multi-criteria assessment for the optimization of lean ... j. and guo, j.: survey of worldwide pico-

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  • Multi-criteria Assessment for the Optimization

    of Lean Satellite Programs

    Pauline FAURE, Atomu TANAKA, Mengu CHO, HORYU-IV Team

    Kyushu Institute of Technology

    Laboratory of Spacecraft Environment Interaction Engineering

    1st IAA Latin American Symposium on Small Satellites

    -Advanced Technologies and Distributed Systems –

    March 7th – 10th 2017

    Ministry of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation, Palermo, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Session on Small Satellites Worldwide: Achievements and Trends

  • CONTENTS

    1. Introduction

    2. Research objectives

    3. Methodology

    4. Results and discussion

    5. Summary

    6. Research outlook

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 2

  • CONTENTS

    1. Introduction

    2. Research objectives

    3. Methodology

    4. Results and discussion

    5. Summary

    6. Research outlook

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 3

  • INTRODUCTION

     Lean satellite programs essence

     Non-traditional and risk-taking development approach

     Development drivers: fast delivery, low cost, value

    EgyptSat1, SaudiSat3

    Credit: NARSS

    Thai-Paht (Thailand)

    Credit: SSTL

    BADR1 (Pakistan)

    Credit: SUPARCO

    New comers, universities

    Dove2 (U.S.)

    Credit: Planet Labs Inc.

    SDS series (Japan)

    Credit: JAXA

    CHEOPS (CH, ESA)

    Credit: ESA

    Private sector, space agencies

    Value

    Low cost

    Fast delivery

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 4

  • INTRODUCTION

     Lean satellite programs essence

     Non-traditional and risk-taking development approach

     Development drivers: fast delivery, low cost, value

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina

    LEAN SATELLITE

    Satellite that utilizes non-traditional, risk-taking development and management

    approaches with the aim to provide value of some kind to the customer at low

    cost and without taking much time to realize the satellite mission

    IAA Study Group 4.18 Members, IAA Study on Definition and Requirements of Small Satellites Seeking Low-Cost and Fast-Delivery, Version 13, June 2016

    5

  • INTRODUCTION

     Problems

     Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality

    Database

    1394 satellites (all categories included) launched between Jan. 1990 and Oct. 2008

    ~97.4% ~98.6% ~98.2%

    Dubos, G.F., Castet, J-F. and Saleh, J.H.: Statistical Reliability Analysis of Satellites by Mass Category: Does Spacecraft Size Matter?, Acta Astronautica 67, 2010, pp. 584-595

    *Reliability = probability of non failure

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 6

  • INTRODUCTION

     Problems

     Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality

    Database

    178 CubeSats launched until June 30, 2014

    Langer, M. and Bouwmeester: Reliability of CubeSats – Statistical data, developers’ beliefs and the way forward, Proc. of the 30th Annual AIAA/USU Conf. on Small Satellites

    *Reliability = probability of non failure

    ~63%

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 7

  • INTRODUCTION

    Bouwmeester, J. and Guo, J.: Survey of worldwide pico- and nanosatellite missions, distributions and subsystem technology, Acta Astronautica 67, 2010, pp. 854-862

    Database

    94 satellites (pico- and nano-satellite categories) launched until July 30, 2009

     Problems

     Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality

     Most of non-traditional satellites fail to achieve full mission success

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 8

  • INTRODUCTION

     Problems

     Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality

     Most of non-traditional satellites fail to achieve full mission success

    Testing prior to launch is insufficient

    No value provided to the customer

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina

    How to improve lean satellite programs?

    9

  • INTRODUCTION

     Plan for improvement: PI2 action plan

     Prevent infant mortality

     Identify culprit sub-systems

     Improve testing strategy

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 10

  • CONTENTS

    1. Introduction

    2. Research objectives

    3. Methodology

    4. Results and discussion

    5. Summary

    6. Research outlook

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 11

  • RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

     Study the relation between testing time vs. reliability vs. project schedule vs. cost

     Demonstrate lean satellites reliability, i.e. value, improves through testing

     Serve as guidance to lean satellite programs developers

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 12

  • CONTENTS

    1. Introduction

    2. Research objectives

    3. Methodology

    4. Results and discussion

    5. Summary

    6. Research outlook

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 13

  • METHODOLOGY

     First and foremost, some vocabulary

     Failure: any mistake, malfunction, anomaly, or glitch in the hardware or software (misplaced hole, power line inversion, component short-circuit, etc…)

     Engineering model 1 (EM1): assembly and test of the bus sub-systems only (no payload)

     Engineering model 2 (EM2): assembly and test of the bus and payload sub- systems + fit check between structural elements and electronic boards

     Flight model (FM): same as EM2 + no major design or hardware modifications allowed

     Reliability: probability of non-failure at a certain given time

     Testing: include assembly, integration, and testing processes

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 14

  • METHODOLOGY

     Experimental data collection methodology

     Failures number, discovery time, and type of failures recorded

     General time assumption: testing from Monday through Friday, 8h/day

    Data collection

    period

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 15

  • METHODOLOGY

     Simulation algorithm steps

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 16

    1) Random number

    generation

    Decision on whether a

    failure occurred or not

    2) Failure modes

    determination

    Estimation of failure

    influence on testing time

    3) Failure criticality level

    determination

    Estimation of failure

    reparation on project schedule

    r(t): failure rate

    4) Reliability after launch

    calculation based on 1000 runs

  • CONTENTS

    1. Introduction

    2. Research objectives

    3. Methodology

    4. Results and discussion

    5. Summary

    6. Research outlook

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 17

  • RESULTS and DISCUSSION

     Failure discovery over time

     Most of failures discovered during the early stage of new testing phase

     Testing to be performed for as long as 1 year

    Experimental data Simulations (example)

    Faure, P., Tanaka, A. and Cho, M.: Toward lean satellites reliability improvement using HORYU-IV project as case study, Acta Astronautica (2017), DOI:

    10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.12.030

    1st IAA Latin American

    Symposium on Small Satellites

    March 7th - 10th 2017

    Buenos Aires, Argentina 18

  • RESULTS and DISCUSSION

     Failure discovery over time

     Most of failures discovered during the early stage of new testing phase

     Testing