mubaya: climate variability and change or multiple stressors? farmer perceptions regarding threats...

Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer

perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and

Zambia

Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya

3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Outline

• Study background

• Objectives

• Methodology

• Findings

• Conclusions 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Study background


Context

• General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa

• A general decrease for total seasonal rainfall and temperature increases in Southern Africa

• Among countries worst affected are Zimbabwe and Zambia

• Economies agriculture (rain-fed) based3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Objectives


AimEstablish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify

existing response strategies and develop appropriate strategies for adapting to future

climatic change


• Perceptions related to decision making • Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in

perception, cognition or the lack of available information

• Attribution

• Understand perceptions on non-climate risks


Objectives of the study• Farmer perceptions

regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods

• Investigate perceptions regarding CC & V in relation to non-climatic risks


Methodology


Approach to the study


Findings


Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district

92

8

87

13

77

23

88

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% farmers

Monze Sinazongwe Lupane Lower Gweru

Yes No3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Zimbabwe Zambia

Precipitation More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable- late 1980s

Droughts (3 seasons between 1990 & 2010)

Higher incidence & intensity of dry spells

Excessive rains (2 seasons after 2000)

Heavy rains and floods (2 consecutive seasons 2006/7, 2008/9

Shorter rain seasons

Temperature Hotter than before Hotter than beforeShift in highest temperature periods

Warmer winters than before Prolonged winters3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district

73

45

11

23

54 54

3629 32 35

27

47

27

55

89

77

46 46

6471 68 65

73

53

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mo

nze

Sin

azon

gw

e

Lu

pa

ne

Lo

wer

Gw

eru

Mo

nze

Sin

azon

gw

e

Lu

pa

ne

Lo

wer

Gw

eru

Mo

nze

Sin

azon

gw

e

Lu

pa

ne

Lo

wer

Gw

eru

2006/07 season 2005/06 season 2004/05 season

% o

f fa

rmers

good bad3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Perceptions regarding causes

Causes of CC & V Monze %

Sinazongwe %

Lupane %

Lower Gweru %

Natural causes 34 35 24 31

Deforestation 33 17 5 14

Believe its god's will/ nature, cultural beliefs

3 7 45 27

Does not know 30 41 26 283/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Stressors • Financial • Market constraints• Livestock/crop diseases• Agricultural inputs• Weakened government capacity• Inadequate draught power/farming implements• Climate related• HIV and AIDS• Low soil fertility


Zambia

Stressor Food insecurity Loss of income

Insecure livelihoods

Total Rank

Erratic rainfall 20 10 18 48 1

Lack of capital 10 20 15 45 2

Drying up of water sources 12 14 13 39 3

Few dams 10 15 8 33 4

Shortage of draught power 15 10 7 32 5

Lack of knowledge 9 12 10 31 6

Non- functional dip tanks 6 4 10 20 7


Zimbabwe Stressor Loss of

crop yield

Loss of income

Insecure livelihood

Total Rank

Climate variability (Erratic rains, frost, drought)

18 16 16 50 1

Shortage of drugs in clinics 16 16 16 48 2

Late supply of inputs 14 16 14 44 3

Lack of transport to market produce and bad roads

10 18 12 40 4

HIV and AIDS 10 10 14 34 5

Lack of draught power 12 10 6 28 6 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%M

onze

Sin

azon

gwe

Lupa

ne

Low

er G

wer

u

Mon

ze

Sin

azon

gwe

Lupa

ne

Low

er G

wer

u

Mon

ze

Sin

azon

gwe

Lupa

ne

Low

er G

wer

u

Mon

ze

Sin

azon

gwe

Lupa

ne

Low

er G

wer

u

crop yields livestock populations agric income food availability

% o

f fa

rmer

s

increased same declined3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

Conclusions


• Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports

• Farmers may be assigning observed negative impacts on the agricultural and socio-economic system solely to climate variability

• Challenges in disentangling contribution of each factor to observed outcomes

• Climate variability and change remain the most critical for these farmers in multiplicity of stressors


THANK YOU


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