mtg q312 presentation final

26
1 CHAPTER NAME Modern Times Group MTG Third Quarter 2012 Financial Results

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Page 1: Mtg q312 presentation final

1 CH

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Modern Times Group

MTG

Third Quarter 2012

Financial Results

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Forward looking statements

Forward-looking information and Safe Harbour Statement under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform

Act of 1995

This report contains forward-looking information based on the current expectations of MTG management.

Although management deems that the expectations presented by such forward-looking information are

reasonable, such forward-looking information is subject to risks and uncertainties and no guarantee can be

given that these expectations will prove correct. Accordingly, the actual future outcome could vary considerably

when compared to what is stated in the forward-looking information, due to such factors as the prevailing

economic and business environments in certain markets and the impact of the Eurozone crisis in particular;

commercial risks related to expansion into new territories; political and legislative risks related to changes in

rules and regulations in the various territories in which the Group operates; exposure to foreign exchange rate

movements and the US dollar and Euro currencies in particular; and the emergence of new technologies and

competitors. These risks and uncertainties are described in more detail in the 2011 Annual Report, which is

available from the Group’s website at www.mtg.se and in the Group’s registration statement on Form 20-F,

which is available from the website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

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Third quarter 2012

• Sales up 2% y-o-y at constant FX when excluding

discontinued or sold operations

• Down 1% y-o-y at constant FX

• OPEX up y-o-y at constant FX

• Investments in the Nordic pay-TV business, offset by

slightly lower costs in the Emerging Markets

businesses & stable cost base in Free-TV

Scandinavia segment

• EBIT before associated company income of

SEK 288 (358) mn

• Total EBIT of SEK 422 (526) mn including SEK 134

(168) mn of associated company income

• PTP of SEK 389 (439) mn

• Including SEK -2 (-64) non-cash impact of change in

value of option element of CDON convertible bond

• Net income of SEK 308 (306) mn & basic EPS of SEK 4.65

(4.71)

• Jørgen Madsen Lindemann appointed President & CEO on

15 Sep 2012 & senior management changes announced on

15 October 2012

• Acquired Swedish communications operator Zitius & Signed

agreement to acquire remaining shares in TV 2 Sport in

Denmark

SEK mn

* EBIT excluding associated income

3.106 2.940

358 288

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Revenue EBIT* EBIT margin

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First nine months of 2012

• Stable sales y-o-y at reported rates & up 1% y-o-y at

constant FX

• OPEX up y-o-y at constant FX

• EBIT before associated company income of

SEK 1,181 (1,382) mn

• Total EBIT of SEK 1,648 (1,900) mn, including SEK

467 (517) of associated company income

• PTP of SEK 1,567 (1,791) mn

• Including SEK -8 (-30) non-cash impact of change

in value of option element of CDON convertible

bond

• Net income of SEK 1,216 (1,276) mn & basic EPS of SEK

17,68 (18,90)

• Received SEK 158 (145) mn of dividends from CTC Media

• Net cash flow from operations of SEK 1,095 (689) mn

SEK mn

* EBIT excluding associated income

9.762 9.716

1.382 1.181

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

9M 2011 9M 2012

Revenue EBIT* EBIT margin

Page 6: Mtg q312 presentation final

Forward expectations

MTG is increasing its investments in its pay-TV operations in the increasingly competitive

Nordic markets and in the large scale emerging Russian and Ukrainian markets, in order

to ensure that its channels and services have the most attractive consumer content

offerings and capture subscriber market share in the future.

• Increasing investments in Nordic pay-TV content, premium channels and Viaplay

online pay-TV service currently expected to result in Nordic pay-TV EBIT margin of

approximately 15% in Q4 2012 and 10-12% for full year 2013. The total Nordic

premium pay-TV subscriber base (excluding Viaplay) is currently expected to continue

to decline in Q4 2012 and for the full year 2013 due to the ongoing decline in the DTH

subscriber base and lower than anticipated growth in the third party network subscriber

base, and result in stable quarter on quarter total Nordic pay-TV sales in Q4 2012 and

stable year on year sales for the full year 2013. The fast growing Viaplay online pay-TV

service is expected to continue to grow its subscribers and revenues throughout this

period

• Increasing investments in Russian and Ukrainian pay-TV content, HD channels and

pre-paid satellite service in Ukraine currently expected to boost Emerging Markets pay-

TV revenue growth levels and result in segment operating losses of less than SEK 20

million in Q4 2012 and less than SEK 50 million for full year 2013

6

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3.153 3.010

795 543

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

9M 2011 9M 2012

984

876

216 135

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Revenue EBIT EBIT margin

8

Free-TV Scandinavia

Financial Highlights

• Sales down 7% y-o-y at constant FX in Q3 & down

4% for YTD

• Lower ad sales in all 3 Scandinavian countries

• High sold-out ratios following lower levels of

total TV viewing & coverage of the Olympics

on competing channels

• OPEX down 4% y-o-y in Q3 & up 5% for YTD

• Up y-o-y at constant FX for both periods

• Lower programming costs in Norway offset by

higher programming costs in Denmark and

Sweden

• EBIT margin of 15% (22%) in Q3 & 18% (25%)

for YTD

• Swedish & Norwegian TV ad markets expected to

have continued to grow y-o-y in Q3, while Danish

market estimated to have declined significantly

• OUTLOOK: The Group now anticipates that

operating costs will be down year on year in the

fourth quarter at constant exchange rates and

therefore only up low single digit percentage points

for the full year 2012

SEK mn

SEK mn

Page 9: Mtg q312 presentation final

9

Free-TV Scandinavia

Operating Highlights

Sweden

• Significant CSOV improvements q-o-q on all four

channels

• Earlier launch of Fall schedules

• Improved audience shares so far in Q4

• Biggest AVOD media house in July, August & first

half of September

Denmark

• TV3+ affected by Olympic games, but offset by

continued y-o-y ratings increases for TV3 & both

y-o-y & q-o-q ratings gains for TV3 PULS

• Positive CSOV development after end of Olympics

& ratings up y-o-y in Q4 to date

• Focus on the development of AVOD environment

& MTG is leading online media house

Norway

• TV3 CSOV stable q-o-q in Q3

• Viasat4 increased CSOV both q-o-q & y-o-y in Q3

• Continued focus on execution of programming

schedules

Commercial Audience Share (15-49)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sweden Norway Denmark

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Pay-TV Nordic

Financial Highlights

• Sales stable y-o-y in Q3 & up 5% for YTD

• Up 3% y-o-y at constant FX in Q3 & up 6%

for YTD

• OPEX up 4% y-o-y in Q3 & 8% for YTD

• Up more at constant FX

• Investments in premium movie & sports

content & Viaplay

• Expansion of HD and catch-up channel

portfolio & rebranding of Viasat Film

• EBIT margin of 16.6% (19.8%) in Q3 & 17.3%

(19.3%) for YTD

• OUTLOOK: The Group currently continues to

anticipate a segment operating margin of

approximately 17% for FY2012 & for the Q4 2012

operating margin to be approximately 15%.

SEK mn

SEK mn

1.184 1.182

234 196

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Revenue EBIT EBIT margin

3.509 3.681

677 636

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

9M 2011 9M 2012

Page 11: Mtg q312 presentation final

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

Satellite subscribers 3'rd party network subscribers

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

ViasatPlus HDTV Multi-room11

Pay-TV Nordic

Operating Highlights

• Overall premium subscriber base down q-o-q

• 3’rd party subscriber base up slightly q-o-q

& added 18,000 net new subscribers y-o-y

• DTH affected by increased competition in

Denmark in particular

• Shift in subscriber mix towards basic tier

packages in Norway

• Premium satellite ARPU up 3% y-o-y in Q3 &

slightly down q-o-q

• Q-o-q development due to adverse FX

• Y-o-y growth reflected continued growth in

value added services & price increases

Thousands

Thousands

Premium subscribers

Value added services

Page 12: Mtg q312 presentation final

Content Leadership

TV & Movies

Local titles

International titles

1’st

Pay

2’nd

Pay

Page 13: Mtg q312 presentation final

Content Leadership

Premium Sports Content

* In Sweden & Denmark

** In Denmark & Norway

* **

Page 14: Mtg q312 presentation final

400 369

1.418 1.361

-76

-48 -35

52

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

Q3 2011 Q3 2012 9M 2011 9M 2012

Revenue EBIT

• Total sales down 8% y-o-y & down 4% for YTD

• Up 3% y-o-y and 1% for YTD at constant FX

• Continued growth in all businesses except

Hungary & effect of discontinued Slovenia

• OPEX down y-o-y at reported & constant FX

• Improved operating profit y-o-y for both periods &

operating margin of 3.8% for YTD

• OUTLOOK: The Group currently continues to not

anticipate any increase in segment operating costs

for FY2012 and, therefore, a largely stable y-o-y cost

development in Q4 2012

• Baltic, Czech & Bulgarian sales down 5% y-o-y &

down 1% for YTD

• Up 6% in Q3 & up 4% for YTD at constant FX

• Combined OPEX down 4% y-o-y both in Q3 & for

YTD

• Q3 included reorganisation costs for LNT &

strategic programming investments in Czech

Republic offset by cost savings in Bulgaria

• Improved y-o-y EBIT y-o-y in Q3 & for YTD, with

EBIT margin of 6.4% (3.6%) for YTD

14

Free-TV Emerging Markets

Financial Highlights

Free-TV Emerging Markets

Baltics, Czech Republic & Bulgaria

SEK mn

SEK mn

352 334

1.254 1.244

-48 -50

45

80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

Q3 2011 Q3 2012 9M 2011 9M 2012

Revenue EBIT

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Free-TV Emerging Markets

Operating Highlights

Baltics

• Sales up 10% y-o-y in Q3 at constant FX

• Primarily due to consolidation of LNT in

Latvia & higher y-o-y TV ad sales in Estonia

• Pan-Baltic commercial target audience share of

47% (40.6%) – reflected consolidation of LNT in

Latvia

Czech Republic

• Sales up 4% y-o-y in Q3 at constant FX

• CSOV up y-o-y & q-o-q following increased

investments in OP & focus on programming

schedule + Champions League matches on Prima

COOL

Bulgaria

• Sales up 6% y-o-y in Q3 at constant FX

• Combined CSOV up both y-o-y & q-o-q despite

slightly lower programming investments

Commercial Audience Share

* MTG has included the LNT channels in its reported combined CSOV in

Latvia with effect from Q3 2012

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Estonia (15-49) Latvia (15-49)*

Lithuania (15-49) Czech Republic (15-54)

Bulgaria (18-49)

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240

267

13

48

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Revenue EBIT EBIT margin

685

790

42

139

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

9M 2011 9M 201216

Pay-TV Emerging Markets

Financial Highlights

• Sales up 11% y-o-y in Q3 & 15% for YTD

• Up 13% y-o-y at constant FX both in Q3 &

for YTD

• OPEX down 3% y-o-y in Q3 & up 1% for YTD

• Primarily reflected FX fluctuations

• EBIT more than tripled to SEK 48 (13) mn in Q3 & to

SEK 139 (42) mn for YTD

• OUTLOOK: The Group continues to anticipate higher

y-o-y profit levels for the segment for FY2012 but for

the segment to report an operating loss in Q4 2012

following the investments in the launch of the HD

movie channels and the Ukrainian pre-paid satellite

service

SEK mn

SEK mn

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Pay-TV Emerging Markets

Operating Highlights

• 83,000 net new subscribers added y-o-y &

9,000 q-o-q

• Continued intake on all 3 satellite platforms

• Wholesale channel business added over 14 mn

subscriptions y-o-y & over 2.6 million subscriptions

q-o-q

• Ongoing growth in Russia

• Launched 3 new HD movie channels in Russia,

Ukraine, CIS & Baltics

• Will feature content from four major

Hollywood studios

Satellite subscribers

Mini-pay TV subscriptions

Thousands

Thousands

400

500

600

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

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New HD Channels Launched

Russia, Ukraine, the CIS & Baltics

18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Countries 7 11 15 22 23 24 25 25 28 31

Channels 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 15 19 23

Satellite platforms Baltics Ukraine Russia

• All 3 channels available in Russia, Ukraine &

CIS

• TV1000 Premium HD – Premium tier movie

channel with focus on first run premieres of

award winning films from Hollywood studios and

independent local distributors

• TV1000 Megahit HD – Premium movie channel

featuring first run premieres of the latest

blockbuster titles from Hollywood and Russia

• TV1000 Comedy HD – dedicated to US

comedy movies

Top 10 pay-TV channels in Russia

Monthly reach (million people)

11,0

11,9

12,2

13,2

14,1

15,5

17,9

19,4

20,6

21,2

0 5 10 15 20 25

DOM KINO

SONY ENTERTAINMENT TELEVISION

NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CHANNEL

EUROSPORT

MOYA PLANETA

ANIMAL PLANET

DISCOVERY CHANNEL

Page 19: Mtg q312 presentation final

Launch of UA.TV

Utilizing growth opportunities

19

TV market structure

(2011)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Cable DTH IPTV

58%

2% 1%

39%

Cable

DTH (pay)

IPTV

DTH (freeview)

Pay-TV market penetration

(%)

• Substantial market opportunity – Europe’s 6th largest country by population

• Pay-TV penetration in 2011 is still low, at close to 19.5% of TV HHs

• Addressable market for DTH – 15.4 million non-cable HHs

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Other Businesses

Highlights

• Comprises MTG’s Radio operations in Norway &

Sweden and MTG Studios content production

businesses

• Sales up 7% y-o-y & 2% for YTD at constant FX

when excluding Bet24 contribution in 2012 & 2011

• Underlying performance reflected higher y-o-y

sales for MTG Studios & Norwegian radio

operations

• Significantly lower y-o-y sales for Swedish

radio operations

• Profits slightly down y-o-y in Q3

• Losses for Swedish radio operations offset by

profits for Norwegian radio operations & lower

y-o-y losses for MTG Studios

• Paprika Latino to be consolidated in Q4

SEK mn

SEK mn

372

297

18 15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Revenue EBIT

1.225

1.101

82 6

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

9M 2011 9M 2012

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Income Statement

• Lower y-o-y depreciation & amortisation

charges of SEK 34 (47) mn in Q3 & 90 (145)

mn for YTD following ending of charges

related to Bulgarian & Czech broadcasting

licenses

• Net interest charges down y-o-y to

SEK -10 (-17) mn in Q3 & SEK -34 (-45) mn

for YTD

• Y-o-y change in other financial items

included SEK -2 (-64) mn non-cash financial

impact in Q3 & SEK -8 (-30) mn for YTD

from the change in value of the option

element of the SEK 250 mn CDON Group

convertible bond mn

• Effective tax rate of 21% in Q3 & 22%

for YTD

(SEK mn)

Q3

2012

Q3

2011

9M

2012

9M

2011

Net sales 2,940 3,106 9,716 9,762

EBIT before associated

company income 288 358 1,181 1,382

Associated company income 134 168 467 517

EBIT 422 526 1,648 1,900

Net interest & other financial

items -33 -87 -81 -108

Income before tax 389 439 1,567 1,791

Tax -81 -133 -351 -516

Net income 308 306 1,216 1,276

Basic EPS 4.65 4.71 17.68 18.90

Diluted EPS 4.64 4.69 17.62 18.79

Page 23: Mtg q312 presentation final

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Cash Flow

• Cash flow from operations included receipt of SEK

51 (-) mn of dividend payments from CTC Media

in Q3 and SEK 158 (145) mn for H1

• Investment in shares amounted to SEK 174 (-) in

Q3 & SEK 274 (-) mn for YTD & comprised the

acquisition of the Paprika Latino content

production business, the LNT free-TV business in

Latvia and the communications operator Zitius

• CAPEX less than 1% of Group net sales in Q3

and for YTD

• Cash flow from investing activities of SEK 23 (-)

mn in Q3 & SEK 84 (-) mn for YTD comprised net

cash received from sale of Bet24

(SEK mn)

Q3

2012

Q3

2011

9M

2012

9M

2011

Cash flow from

operations 237 345 1,072 1,334

Changes in working

capital 65 -483 23 -645

Net cash flow from

operations 302 -138 1,095 689

Cash flow used in

investing activities -179 -34 -236 -86

Cash flow used in

financing activities -335 64 -863 -770

Net change in

cash & cash

equivalents

-211 -108 -4 -167

Page 24: Mtg q312 presentation final

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Financial Position

• Total borrowings of SEK 1.326 (2,458) mn as at

30 Sep 2012 & cash & cash equivalents of

SEK 451 (317) mn

• Net debt of SEK 634 (1,861) mn as at 30 Sep

2012 & available liquid funds of SEK 5,784

(4,499) mn

• SEK 1,888 (2,253) mn book value of 37.9%

shareholding in CTC media & public equity

market value of 3,552 mn as at 30 Sep 2012

(SEK mn)

30 Sep

2012

30 Sep

2011

Non-current assets 5,742 9,156

Current assets 5,581 5,802

Total assets 11,324 14,958

Shareholders’ equity 4,635 7,391

Long-term liabilities 1,902 3,090

Current liabilities 4,786 4,476

Total equity & liabilities 11,324 14,958 Net debt / EBITDA ratio

1,2 1,2 1,1

0,8 0,7

0,6 0,7

0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

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For further information, please visit www.mtg.se or contact:

MTG Investor Relations

Tel: +44 7768 440 414 / +44 7590 098 188

Email: [email protected]