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Moore’s Law Gordon E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits,” Electronics, pp. 114–117, April 19, 1965.

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Moore’s Law

Gordon E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits,” Electronics, pp. 114–117, April 19, 1965.

Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits

• A manifesto about the promise of integrations

• Gordon Moore predicts a huge range of applications

• And a bunch of advantages

• He’s selling hard!

The promise

• Apps -- scientific advancement, home computers, automatic auto control, cell phones, electronic wrist watches, large scale data processing, and communication networks.

The Promise

• Reliability

• Compactness

• Weight

• Power efficiency

• Simpler designs -- see 8008 to 8086 evolution

Moore’s Law

• The number of minimum cost xtrs per die increases exponentially

• Density decreases cost

• Yield problems increases cost

Moore’s Law

• xtrs count double s every year.

• Not quite right

• Moore’s law: 250 xtrs in 2009

• Reality: 232

• Probably fewer “cheapest”

year xtrs1962 101965 501970 10001975 65,000

How it played out

Moore’s Law

• Since 1975

• 1,100 x decrease in feature size

• 1.2M x increase in density

• About 45% per year. Doubling every 22 months.

Observations

• Other components (caps, inductors) will be elusive.

• Constant power scaling (formalized by Dennard)

• Chip size is roughly constant

• Moore says 1/4 sq. in. = 161mm2

Observations

• Very optimistic about reliability.

• Electron beam lithography (this is still just a few years away)

• Multiple metal layers!!!

• Other technologies

• attaching active components to “thin film arrays”

Corollaries to Moore’s Law

• Moore’s law performance scaling

• Switching speed goes up with decreasing feature sizes -- Moore doesn’t comment on this.

• We have leveraged density + switching speed to increase performance roughly with Moore’s law.

Performance Growth

Performance grows faster than Moore’s law (45%/year)An In-Depth Look at Computer Performance Growth, Magnus Ekman, Fredrik Warg, and Jim Nilsson, CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, Department of Computer Engineering technical report 2004-9, 2004.

Beating Moore

An In-Depth Look at Computer Performance Growth, Magnus Ekman, Fredrik Warg, and Jim Nilsson, CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, Department of Computer Engineering technical report 2004-9, 2004.

In Context

• It’s hard to overestimate the importance of the impact of Moore’s law.

• However...

• Note that it’s not about performance.

• It’s strictly about density.

• Not that this stops anyone from abusing it.

• A pretty compelling vision for what integrated circuit could do.

More on Scaling

• Seminal paper on scaling is Dennard et. al. “Design of ion-implanted MOSFET's with very small physical dimensions”, 1974

• Lays out how to truly scalable transistors.

Dennardian Scaling

• Given a scaling factor k.

Substrate

L

Gatetox Oxide

W

drain sink

Dennardian Breakdown

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

rela

tive

leak

age

Vt

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Ener

gy *

Dela

y @

Vt =

300

mV

Vdd/Vt

• The problem with leakage

Dennardian Breakdown

Dennardian Breakdown