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Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan

Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International

Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST

Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

MONTHLY REPORT FEBRUARY 2015

Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan

1

Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - February 2015

2


GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In February 2015, according to long-term observations, there is a risk of an emergency caused by snowfall,

frost and avalanches. There is a low risk of debris flow in the lower elevations of DRD and in Khatlon

Province.

WEATHER

Temperatures in February will be within the norm and in some places 10C below the climatic norm in Khatlon

and Sughd Provinces, DRD and Western districts of GBAO. Temperatures will be within the normal range in

Eastern districts of GBAO. Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm and in some places above

the norm: in Khatlon and Sughd Provinces, DRD and Western districts of GBAO; and above the norm in

Eastern districts of GBAO.

ENERGY SECURITY

Electricity generation in January 2015 increased by 4.6 percent compared to December 2014. The water level

in the Nurek reservoir in January 2015 was 8.91 meters lower than in December 2014 and 4.06 meters higher

compared to the same period of last year.

FOOD SECURITY

In February, as well as in January regional food availability will remain good due to the local wheat harvest

and imports from Kazakhstan. Wheat grain and wheat flour prices will remain stable in Tajikistan.

HEALTH

The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season.

MIGRATION

With the onset of cold weather and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities

of labor migrants, seasonal migration has declined. In January 2015 the number of labor migrants decreased

by 18.8 in comparison with the same period of previous year.

ECONOMY

The GDP totaled 45,605.2 million TJS (9,241.4 million USD) for 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.1

percent compared to the same period of 2013. Consumer price inflation was 7.4 percent compared to

December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.8 billion TJS (1,987.8 million USD) for 2014. The

volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 10.0 billion TJS (2,028.4 million USD). In 2014, foreign trade

turnover was equal to 5,316.2 million USD, 6.6 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled

888.6 million USD, and imports totaled 4,338.8 million USD.

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Contents

1. NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................. 4

1.1. Possible natural disasters in February 2015........................................................................ 4

1.2 Natural disasters in January 2015 ............................................................................................. 5

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................... 5

2.1. FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY 2015 г. ............................................................................... 5

2.2. Weather summary for January 2015 ................................................................................... 5

3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6

3.1. Electricity Generation ........................................................................................................... 6

3.2. Natural and liquefied gas ..................................................................................................... 7

3.3. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 7

3.4. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant ........................................................................ 7

4. FOOD SECURITY ....................................................................................................................... 8

4.1. Food Security Reports ......................................................................................................... 8

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ............................................................................................................ 10

4.3. Fuel Prices ......................................................................................................................... 11

5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 12

6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 13

6.1. General trends ................................................................................................................... 13

6.2. Labor Migration of Population ............................................................................................ 15

6.3. Employment ....................................................................................................................... 16

6.4. Exchange Rate .................................................................................................................. 16

Annex A - Weather forecast for February 2015 ................................................................................. 18

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1. NATURAL HAZARDS

1.1. Possible natural disasters in February 2015

According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the

Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the

Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, there is a

risk of an emergency caused by snowfall, frost and avalanches in February 2015. There is a

low risk of debris flow in the lower elevations of DRD and in Khatlon Province. River levels

will rise. There is a possibility of floods on the Yokhsu, Kyzylsu and Kofarnihon Rivers.

Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in February 2000-2014

Causes of Natural disasters

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Total

Wind 4 7 5 1 2 1 20

Flood 1 1 1 1 4

River 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 2 14

Earthquake 1 2 1 1 7 1 2 1 5 2 23

Landslide, rockfall 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 1 1 15

Avalanche 3 11 3 14 5 4 4 2 1 7 3 2 59

Underflood 1 1 2 2 6

Snowfall, frost 2 4 2 24 2 3 4 3 3 9 56

Mudflow 1 1

Total 2 7 11 26 13 45 10 15 14 8 11 2 19 10 5 198

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1.2 Natural disasters in January 2015

IMAC/CoES reported that in January 2015, there were 3 cases of natural disasters,

including 2 rock falls and one landslide:

On January 6 at 20:10, a house in Khorog was destroyed in a rockfall. There were no

casualties;

On January 8 at 12:30, due to landslide, the Tokidara minor bed was covered in Dukon

jamoat, Norak district of Khatlon Province and formed the lake with the volume of 5000

m3. This was a threat to the village, and the blockage was cleared;

On January 11 at 14:00, a house was destroyed in Anzob village, Anzob jamoat of Ayni

district in a rock fall. There were no casualties.

For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in January

2015 contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected].

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1

2.1. FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY 2015 г.

According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center,

the average monthly temperature in February 2015

will be:

Within the norm, but in some areas 10C below

the climatic norm in Khatlon and Sughd

Provinces, Direct Ruled Districts (DRD) and in

Western districts of Gorno-Badakhshan

Autonomous Oblast (GBAO);

Within the climatic norm in Eastern districts of GBAO.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the

norm but in some areas above than the norm in Khatlon and Sughd Provinces, DRD and in

Western districts of GBAO, and above than the norm in Eastern district of GBAO (See

Annex A for a more detailed forecast for February 2015.)

2.2. Weather summary for January 2015

In January the weather was warm in Tajikistan. The average monthly temperature

throughout the country was 2-30C above the climatic norm. The temperature was:

at lower elevations and in the foothills, from 5°C to 6°C;

at higher elevations, from -2°C to -8°C (in Darvoz 1°C);

1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency

of Tajikistan.

Table 2. The average expected precipitation – February 2015

Regions Precipitation

Khatlon Province

Lower elevations

28-100 mm

Foothills 100-150 mm

Sughd Province

Lower elevations

17-38 mm

Higher elevations

9-20 mm

DRD

Lower elevations

28-100 mm

Higher elevations

37-140 mm

GBAO West 9-50 mm

East 4-15 mm

mailto:[email protected]

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at higher elevations of GBAO, from-13°C to -16°C (in Bulunkul -180C).

Almost all month high temperatures dominated. On some days there was a short-term decrease in temperature. The warmest air temperatures were observed during January 1-4, 6-8, 10 and 15-17, when the temperature in the lower elevations rose up to 13-180C in the afternoon and up to 200C in the south. On other days the temperature stayed within 9-140C. In the lower elevations of Sughd Province the temperature was 4-90C in the afternoon. The average daily temperature throughout the country was 4-70C above the long-term averages.

The lowest air temperatures were observed during January 20-22 and 24-25, when the temperature in the lower elevations did not rise above 2-50C in the afternoon and 0 to -50C at night. At lower elevations of Sughd Province the temperature did not rise above -1 to 40C. At night the temperature dropped to -20C to -70C.

Monthly precipitation mostly was below the norm, but in some areas was above the norm (see Table 3.)

3. ENERGY

3.1. Electricity Generation2

According to the information of OJHC “Barqi Tojik,” total electricity generation in January 2015 was 1,491 million kilowatt-hours (kW/h), or 48.1 million kW/h per day. Electricity generation in January 2015 increased by 4.6 percent (46.0 million kW/h) compared to December 2014. Electricity generation in January 2015 was 51 million kW/h more than in the same period of the last year (see Section 3.5 below). For more detailed information on electricity generation contact the MEWS Center at [email protected] ). Total Electricity Generation – January 2011 – January 2015 (million kW/h)

2 Data on electricity generation and consumption is provided by the Monitoring and Early Warning System

(MEWS) Expert from Barqi Tojik.

Table 3. Monthly Precipitation

Regions Less than norm %

Sughd Province 79-185%

Khatlon Province 80-142%

DRD 70-174%

Western GBAO 140-254%

Eastern GBAO 81-150%


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3.2. Natural and liquefied gas

The supply of natural gas to the Republic of Tajikistan was suspended in connection with completion of the contract with the Republic of Uzbekistan in December 2012.

Tajikistan receives deliveries of liquefied gas by road and rail. According to the operational data of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan, enterprises registered with the Ministry imported 27,708 tons of liquefied gas for January 2015, mostly from the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of Turkmenistan and the Russian Federation. Imports amounted to 7,447 tons more than in December 2014 and 8,456 tons more than for the same period of last year. More than 56 percent of the country's motor vehicles use liquefied gas as fuel.

3.3. Coal

According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of RT, 21,808 tons of coal were produced in January 2015, which is 48,199 tons less than in December 2014, and 1,759 tons or 8.8 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. Coal production has increased due to the commissioning of the first unit of the “Dushanbe-2” thermal power plant and a shift in the country’s industrial enterprises from more expensive natural gas and electricity to more economical coal for heating and other needs (e.g., for processing coal into gas for TALCO activities).

3.4. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant3

The Water Volume – Nurek HPP chart below shows the volume of water in the Nurek Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir at the end of January 2015 compared to the average volume over the last ten years (2004 to 2014). At the end of January 2015, the water level in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 888.23 meters above sea level, which is 8.91 meters lower than in December 2014, 4.06 meters higher than in the same period of the previous year, and 31.23 meters above the “dead level” (inactive storage) (857 meters). In January 2015, average monthly inflow from the Vakhsh River was 199 m3/sec, 11.2 percent more compared to the same period of last year.

Water Volume – Nurek HPP (million m3)

3 Data obtained from OJHC “Barqi Tojik”

8


The Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below shows water inflow into the Nurek

HPP. At the end of January 2015, the water inflow was 188 m3/sec, which is 38.6 m3/sec

above the average of 149.4 m3/sec for 2004-2014.

Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

As indicated in the Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below, the average water

discharge from the Nurek HPP reservoir at the end of January 2015 amounted to 529

m3/sec, which is lower than the 10-year-old average of 530.2 m3/sec.

Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

4. FOOD SECURITY

4.1. Food Security Reports

According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of RT, the most important

imported food products are grain and flour. For 2014, 774.9 thousand tons of grain at an

average price of 298 USD per ton and 189 thousand tons of flour at an average price of

411 USD per ton were imported into the Republic, which is 21 percent more grain and

18.7 percent less flour compared to the previous year.

9


In January 2015 the prices of wheat flour remained stable in the country’s markets. As of

January 30, 2015, the average price of one 50-kilogram bag of domestically-produced first

grade flour was 156.87 TJS (29.2 USD). The price of first grade flour produced in

Kazakhstan was 162.66 TJS (30.2 USD.)

In 2014, the average price of imported oil products was 876 USD per ton, a decrease of 15

percent compared with the previous year. During this period 579.8 thousand tons of oil

products were imported into the Republic, 196.8 thousand tons more than in the last year.

Those imports included 243.8 thousand tons of diesel fuel imported at an average price of

856 USD per ton and 246.6 thousand tons of gasoline at an average price of 796 USD per

ton. For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at:

[email protected].

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network for January (FEWS NET) PRICE WATCH: Food

Commodity Prices for December reported:

Wheat flour prices increased persistently over the second half of 2014 in Tajikistan due to

the effects of a slightly below-average local harvest coupled with the effects of higher

import prices from Kazakhstan. The effects of the depreciation of the local currency (by 10

percent in 2014) put additional upward pressure on imported food and fuel prices.

December 2014 prices in Khatlon Province were 25 percent above their respective five-

year average levels. Other factors, such as increased domestic marketing costs as well as

seasonal demand for winter stocks also contributed to the observed price trends. Prices

for potatoes, another staple food, also increased considerably during the second half of

2014 across Tajikistan. In Sughd Province, prices were 47 percent above their respective

2013 levels and 89 percent above average.

Outlook

The current grain export restrictions by Russia are expected to lead to an increase in

demand for Kazakh grain in Central Asia (USDA) in 2015. Though Russian and Kazakhstan

have separate marketing channels, reduced Russian export supply may result in increased

demand from non-traditional Kazakh wheat importers (Middle East and African). Although

the Kazakh Ministry of Agricultural claims that grain reserves are adequate, a substantial

increase in export demand may increase export prices, resulting in higher wheat flour

prices in Tajikistan in particular. Wheat flour prices are expected to continue increasing in

Tajikistan, in tandem with Kazakh wheat export prices. However, the extent to which

prices increase will depend on the more general international wheat price trends and

trade opportunities outside of Central Asia. The full FEWS NET report is available at:

http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/MONTHLY%20PRICE%20WAT

CH_AND_ANNEX_JANUARY2015_0_0.pdf


http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/MONTHLY%20PRICE%20WATCH_AND_ANNEX_JANUARY2015_0_0.pdf

http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/MONTHLY%20PRICE%20WATCH_AND_ANNEX_JANUARY2015_0_0.pdf

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4.2. Wheat Flour Prices4

First Grade Wheat Flour

The chart below shows prices for first grade wheat flour in Dushanbe, Khujand, and

Kurgan-Tyube markets from January 2010 to the end of January 2015. In January 2015 a

slight increase in wheat flour prices was observed in all Dushanbe, Kurgan-Tyube and

Khujand markets in comparison with December 2014.

First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – January 2015

(TJS/kg)

The chart below provides prices for first grade wheat flour in two large regional markets in

Gharm and Khorog and the average prices for Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. In

January 2015, wheat flour prices remained unchanged in Khorog and Gharm in

comparison with December 2014.

First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in Gharm, Khorog, and the average in three main markets

for January 2010 –2015 (TJS/kg)

4 Food and fuel prices are from UN WFP Food Security Weekly Market Monitoring, Tajikistan

http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

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4.3. Fuel Prices

In January 2015 a decline in gasoline and diesel fuel prices was observed in all Dushanbe,

Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube markets in comparison with December 2015.

Petrol Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – January 2015 (TJS/liter)

Diesel Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – January 2015 (TJS/liter)

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5. HEALTH

According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of RT, as of

January 13, 2015, the epidemiological situation and trends on major notifiable infectious

diseases are relatively good.

Compared to the same period of

2014, there is:

a comparative decline in the number of cases of intestinal infections and water-borne diseases, including acute intestinal infections;

a comparative reduction in

the number of Typhoid fever

cases;

a reduction in the number of viral hepatitis cases;

a reduction in the number

of cases of acute respiratory

viral infections;

a comparative increase in the number of cases of Brucellosis;

a comparative increase in the number of cases of Scarlet fever;

a comparative increase in registration of bites by wild and domestic animals.

With the beginning of the cold season, the risk of acute respiratory viral infections—

including the flu—increases. For other infectious diseases the epidemiological situation is

assessed as auspicious.

Table 4. Statistical data on the epidemiological situation for January 2015 in comparison with the same period of the last year

# Name of disease 2014 2015 Change (-), (+)

1 Typhoid Fever 6 1 -6

2 Acute intestinal infections

1878 963 -915

3 Dysentery 27 21 -6

4 Brucellosis 36 38 +2

5 Scarlet fever 9 11 +2

6 Bites and Saliva Contact 1225 1238 +13

7 Tuberculosis 314 261 -53

8 Acute respiratory infections

30711 21391 -9320

9 Flu 1474 673 -801

Table 5. Expected risks in February 2015 and recommended appropriate measures

Expected risks Recommended appropriate measures

The risk of rising incidence of acute respiratory viral infections remains high due to the onset of cold weather.

Avoid close contact with people who have fever and cough. Avoid crowded places or reduce time spent in crowded places. Practice proper hygiene - wash hands frequently with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, especially when touching mouth and nose. Increase the flow of fresh air into the home, and open windows as often as possible (ventilate). Use a protective mask when in contact with a sick person.

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6. ECONOMIC TRENDS

6.1. General trends

National economic development remained stable and economic growth continued to

increase in 2014. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Republic increased by 6.7

percent compared to 2013 and amounted to 45,605.2 million TJS (9,241.4 million USD).

The GDP growth rate compared to the last year decreased by 0.7 percent. The deflator

index of prices totaled 105.5 percent. GDP per capita increased by 11.4 percent compared

to the last year and totaled 5,468.2 TJS (1108.1 USD).

The gross domestic product of the Republic in 2014 was mainly due to the development of

industries at 105.1%, agriculture-104.5%, investments in fixed capital-125.3%, freight

transport-102.9%, retail trade-106.5% and paid services-101.0%.

In 2014, industrial enterprises of Republic produced goods worth 10,528.6 million TJS

(2,133.5 million USD), 5.1 percent more than in the previous year (2013). Growth in

industrial production in 2014, compared with 2013, is due to the significant growth in:

mining industries – 24.8 percent, manufacturing – 1.0 percent, and the production and

distribution of electricity, gas, and water – 7.1 percent. The mining industry’s share of

industrial output was 13.3 percent, the manufacturing sector’s share (food, textile,

petrochemical, and metallurgical industries) was 66.1 percent, and the share of the

production and distribution of electricity, gas and water supply, 20.6 percent.

The volume of gross agricultural output (in all types of farms) in 2014 increased by 4.5

percent compared with the last year (2013). 94.0 percent of agricultural output is in the

private sector. Gross agricultural product in the reporting period amounted to 21,021.9

Maintain a healthy lifestyle: good sleep, balanced nutrition, physical activity, regular walks, fresh air and exercise.

An outbreak of food poisoning (botulism.) Maintain proper storage and transportation conditions of perishable foods. Be attentive to homemade canned food and follow specialists’ recommendations for proper use.

According to official statistics of the State Veterinary Supervision Service, there has been an increase in the incidence of brucellosis among animals, which in turn contributes to the growth of infection among the population obtaining brucellosis from animals.

Early detection and treatment of infected animals. Take comprehensive preventive measures.

Examination of the data of last 4-5 years show that in the period from January to March, an increase number of treated bites from stray dogs are observed in connection with the dog’s mating season.

Strengthen control over stray animals. If necessary, take measures for the capture and isolation of stray dogs. Vaccinate domestic animals. Immediately go to the nearest hospital in the event of an animal bite.

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million TJS (4,259.8 million USD), including crop production—14,532.8 million TJS (2,944.9

million USD), or 0.9 percent more, and livestock—6,489.1 million TJS (1,314.9 million

USD), or 12.5 percent more.

In 2014, investments in fixed capital from all sources of finance amounted to 7,386.4

million TJS or 1,496.8 million USD, 25.3 percent more than in the previous year (2013).

3,670.6 million TJS (743.8 million USD) (or 48.5 percent) were invested in production

facilities. 3,715.8 million TJS (753 million USD), or 51.5 percent of total investment in the

country, were invested in non-production facilities. Most investments, 41.8 percent, were

made in the public sector. The private sector accounted for 30.4 percent, joint ventures

accounted for 6.9 percent, and foreign ownership accounted for 20.9 percent. 1,260.0

million TJS (255.3 million USD) were invested in the construction of energy facilities, 24.6

percent more compared with the previous year.

In 2014 the inflation rate in the consumer sector was 7.4 percent in comparison with

December 2013. The main contributors to inflation were food products—9.7 percent, paid

services—6.5 percent, and non-food products—2.9 percent.

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, the total State budget

amounted to 13,352.6 million TJS (2,705.7 million USD) for 2014, or 29.3 percent of GDP.

The total volume of credit balances as of February 1, 2015, (data for 2014) has amounted

to 9.8 billion TJS (1,987.8 million USD). Compared with the previous year (2013), it has

increased by 29.9 percent. The positive trend of lending is due mainly to increasing

balances of loans in foreign currency by 31.2 percent. The volume of loans to economic

sectors for this period amounted to 10.0 billion TJS (2,028.4 million USD), increasing by

26.6 percent in comparison with the previous year (2013). The volume of repaid loans

reached 9.9 billion TJS (2,008.1 million USD), which is 81.5 percent of the total issued

credits for this period.

Foreign trade accounted for 21.4% of total loans, construction - 15.8%, consumption -

14.6%, industry - 12.6%, agricultural sector -12.0%, financial intermediation - 3.1% and

other sectors - 11%. At the same time, the development of credit investments for business

activities in the country remains the primary priority of monetary policy. From the total

volume of loans granted by the banking system 46.6% were sent to national

entrepreneurs.

The development of microcredit throughout the country, especially in remote

mountainous regions, continues to be a priority and important part of the country’s

banking system. The country’s banking system is doing everything possible to implement

this national priority. At the end of 2014, microloans totaled 4.5 billion TJS (912.8 million

USD), increasing by 42.1 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. In distant

high elevations of the country microloans of 1.2 billion TJS (243.4 million USD) were made,

29.2 percent more than in the same period of 2013.

15


Total volume of credits and loans

*-data as of February 2, 2015

For 2014, foreign trade turnover amounted to 5,316.2 million USD. Compared with the same period of 2013, it increased by 6.6 percent. Goods exports amounted to 977.4 million USD. Imports amounted to 4,338.8 million USD. Negative balance of foreign trade turnover totaled 3,361.4 million USD.

6.2. Labor Migration of Population

According to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, in January 2015 a total of 45,418 persons left Tajikistan, 18.8 percent less than in the same period of 2014. 39,654 persons returned to the country.

The reduction in labor migration is due to the cold weather, new regulations for entrance into the Russian Federation on International Passports from January 1, 2015, and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants from foreign countries.

According to the information published on the "Asia Plus" website of Media Group, the World Bank advises to Tajikistan to diversify the external labor market. For more detailed information, please visit:

http://news.tj/ru/news/vsemirnyi-bank-sovetuet-tadzhikistanu-diversifitsirovat-vneshnii-rynok-truda

The Monthly Labor Migration Outside of Tajikistan for 2010 - 2015 chart below provides a year-to-year summary of annual out-migration numbers from 2010 to 2015.



16


The Total Labor Migration for 2010-2015 chart below indicates that the total level of labor

migration in 2015 is below the level of labor migration in the same period of 2014.

6.3. Employment

According to the Agency of Labor and Employment Department of the Ministry of Labor,

Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, 8,453 citizens

applied to the Agency for help in January 2015. Of this number, 4,614 individuals were

registered as job seekers, and 3,482 individuals were recognized as officially unemployed.

For one month of the current year, 1,794 people were provided with jobs with the

assistance of the employment services, which is 21.2 percent of the total number of all

citizens who applied. The main reasons for providing a limited number of people with jobs

were that the majority of the unemployed did not have the necessary technical training or

had lost skills due to prolonged unemployment, as well as the low level of wages offered

by employers.

During January 2015, unemployment benefits totaling 427.4 thousand TJS (86.7 thousand

USD) were paid to 1,489 people. As of February 1, 2015, a total of 83,549 persons were

registered with the Agency as looking for work, including 55,100 registered as unemployed

and including those persons remaining from 2014. For January 2015, 827 people were

sent to vocational training, 78 people were provided with social-paid jobs, and 104 people

were provided with soft loans to start their own businesses.

According to the State Agency for Social Protection, Employment, and Migration of RT, for

first month of 2015, 6,726 new jobs were created, which is 43.6 percent more than in the

same period of the previous year (4,685).

6.4. Exchange Rate

The chart below shows both the official National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) exchange rate

and unofficial (market) exchange rate monitored weekly by the UN WFP. The NBT rate for

February 1, 2015, increased to 5.3754 TJS per one USD. The UN WFP reported an average

17


market exchange rate of 5.63 TJS per one USD for the five main markets in Tajikistan on

February 1, 2015.

Exchange Rate of Tajik Somoni (TJS) against US Dollar, January 2009 –January 2015

18


Annex A - Weather forecast for February 2015

Khatlon Province and Lower Elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD)

The monthly average temperature is expected to be within the norm and in some places

10C below the normal range. The temperature will be from 2 to 40С at lower elevations

and from 0 to 20С in the foothills. During the month at lower elevations, temperature is

expected to oscillate from 0 to 50С and 0 to -50С at night, from 2 to 70С and 6 to 110С in

the afternoon. The warmest weather is expected at the end of the month, when the

temperature may rise up to 13-180C. In the foothills, the temperature fluctuation is

expected to be from -4 to 10C to -3 to -80C at night and from -1 to 40C to 4 to 90C in the

afternoon. The lowest temperature is expected near the end of the month, when the

temperature may drop to -10 to -150C at night and to 0 to -50C in the afternoon.

It is expected that precipitation (rain, rain snow, snow) will occur often. Monthly

precipitation is expected to be within the norm and in some places above the norm (norm:

at lower elevations 28 to 100 mm; in the foothills, 100 to 150 mm).

On some days, Western winds may to increase up to 13-18 m/sec. Fog can also be

expected.

Sughd Province


10C below the normal range. The temperature will be from 0 to 30С at lower elevations

and from -4 to -70С at higher elevations. During month at lower elevations the

temperature is expected to oscillate from -3 to 20С and -3 to -80С at night, from -2 to 30С

and 3 to 80С in the afternoon. The warmest weather is expected at the end of the month,

when the temperature may rise up to 9-140C. At higher elevations, the temperature is

expected to fluctuate from -2 to -70C and -7 to -120C at night and from -2 to 30C to 0 to -

50C in the afternoon. The lowest temperature is expected near the end of the month,

when the temperature may drop to -13 -180C at night, to -4 -90C in the afternoon.

It is expected that precipitation (rain, snow) will occur often. Monthly precipitation is

expected to be within the norm and in some places above the norm (norm: at lower

elevations 17 to 38 mm; in the mountains, 9 to 20 mm.)

On some days, wind may to increase up to 17-22 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

Higher Elevations of DRD and Western Regions of GBAO


10C below the climatic norm and will be from 0 to -50C. In higher elevations a temperature

variation is expected to be: from 0 to -50C to -4 to -90C at night, from -2 to 30C to -0 to -50C

in the afternoon. The lowest temperature is expected at the end of the month, when the

19


temperature may drop to -7 to -120C, in some places to -13 to -180C. The temperature

may drop to 0 to -50C in the afternoon and in some places to -4 to -90C.

Precipitation of varying intensity is expected to be within the norm and in some areas

below the norm (norm: in higher elevations of DRD – 37 to 140mm, in the Western

regions of GBAO – 9 to 50mm,).

On some days, winds may to increase up to 17-22 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

Eastern Regions of GBAO

Monthly average temperature is expected to be within the climatic norm and will be from

-10 to -150C. Fluctuation in temperature is expected from -15 to -200C to -20 to -250C at

night and from -2 to -70C to -7 to -120C in the afternoon. In Bulunkul the temperature may

drop to -28 to -330C at night and -12 to -170C in the afternoon.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be above the norm (norm: 4-15 mm.)

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The aim of the Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and Early Warning (MEW) Reports is to provide regular information and succinct analysis on the evolution of natural, economic, food, energy and other risk factors in Tajikistan. Data and information in this report are provided by different sources and compiled by Group of Experts of Government organizations and institutions of the MEW Center (MEWS) under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) of RT with the support of UNDP and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tajikistan. MEWS at MEDT was created in conjunction with the United Nations Development Program in Tajikistan in 2010. The members of the MEWS Working group include the following organizations and institutions:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, RT

Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, RT

Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, RT

Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Population, RT

Ministry of Health and Social protection of population, RT

Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan

Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan

Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

Agency on statistics under President of RT

Main Department of Geology under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

National Bank of Tajikistan

Migration service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and population employment of RT

OJHC «Barqi Tojik»

OJSC «Tajiktransgaz»

Hydrometeorology Government institution

Agency of Labor and Employment

Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan

The Monitoring and Early Warning Center at the MERT is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of data provided by external sources or analysis based on these data.

Contact information:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Tajikistan 37 Bokhtar, 2nd floor, office #225, Dushanbe 734002 e-mail: [email protected] Tel. (992 37) 223-06-96

Report is available on the website::

http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

and

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system


http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

monitoring and early warning in - untj.netuntj.net/files/publications/drmp/monitoring_and... ·...

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