Book reviews/Conference reports

per lb (constant 198.5 dollars) and yet indicates an expected capacity in- crease between 1985 and 1990 by 400 000 tons, corresponding to more than 5% of 1985 capacity outside the centrally planned economies. This fig- ure implies at least twice as much gross capacity creation, given the ongoing depletion of existing installa- tions. If we are to believe the Bureau of Mines figures, we may wonder about the motivations behind these huge investment undertakings, but the author makes no effort to reconcile the inconsistencies that are involved.

Capacity expansion

Continuing his argument, Mikesell claims that beyond 1995 capacity ex- pansion will be required and to induce the needed investments, the price of copper (constant 1985 dollars) has to rise to at least $1 per lb. This raises two questions. First, what if capacity

continues to expand in the early 1990s in line with the World Bank’s predic- tions for the late 1980s despite con- tinued low prices? Unless the Bank’s analysis for the late 1980s is refuted, there may not be any need for sizable price inducements to stimulate invest- ments after 1995. And second, where does the incentive price of $1 beyond 1995 come from, given the Bureau of Mines estimates of total average costs of $1.67 per lb in undeveloped mines? Again, these central questions are left unanswered by the author.

With deficiencies such as the ones spelled out in the preceding para- graphs it is unlikely that the present book will become a classic in the libraries of the copper industry.

Marian Radetzki Institute for International Economic

Studies, Stockholm, Sweden and Colorado School of Mines, USA

Conference reports Modelling sustainable development International Seminar on Ecosystems Modelling, New De/hi, India, 18-22 January 1988

Experts from many different disci- plines from Europe, North America and various Asian countries met in at India International Centre, New Delhi, for an International Seminar on Ecosystems Modelling. The Seminar was sponsored by the International Society for Ecological Modelling, In- dian Environment Congress Associa- tion, Council for Scientific and Indust- rial Research of the Government of India and Development Alternatives, with the support of the United Nations Environment Programme. This was the first time such a major internation- al gathering had been convened in any developing country.

The chief aim of the seminar was to investigate how best to translate in operational terms the concept of sus- tainable development in the context of

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a developing country such as India which is reasonably rich in resources but has limited expertise and technol- ogy. The question was how to use modern concepts such as systems analysis and mathematical modelling to improve planning and management processes in the areas of natural re- sources and environmental manage- ment.

Environmental management

In opening the symposium, Dr Ashok Khosla, President of the Indian En- vironment Congress Association and of Development Alternatives, pointed out the importance and the necessity of ecosystems modelling for rationaliz- ing and improving the existing en- vironmental management processes in

developing countries like India or China. This was also a theme which was further emphasized by Dr T.N. Khoshoo, Distinguished Scientist at Tata Energy Research Institute. Dr Khoshoo, who was the former Secret- ary of the Department of Environ- ment, Government of India, said that the decision making process urgently needed a realistic assessment of the benefits and costs of different de- velopment alternatives; but unfortu- nately such objective evaluation through modelling was seldom carried out in India and similar developing countries. Accordingly, not surpri- singly, decisions taken were not the best and sometimes did the environ- ment more harm than good, irrespec- tive of the best of intentions.

Professor Asit K. Biswas, President of the International Society of Ecolo- gical Modelling, Oxford, UK, in his opening address pointed out the dan- gers of not searching properly for alternative solutions to development problems. As a result problems were often viewed from a narrow perspec- tive, timeframe and discipline, which, not surprisingly, produced equally narrow solutions. It was not at all infrequent to find solutions to a major perceived problem being im- plemented, which created a series of other secondary and tertiary prob- lems, the sum total of which could exceed the magnitude of the problem which the initial solution had attemp- ted to correct. This was a point that was stressed by the late Indian Prime Minister, Mrs Indira Gandhi, but now appeared to have been mostly forgot- ten.

Dr R.K. Pachauri, in his keynote address, emphasized the need for dynamic modelling rather than the static modelling which was generally used by most governments. By the time static models had been de- veloped, national and international conditions had often changed signifi- cantly, which made solutions analysed through such static models mostly obsolete for planning and decision making purposes. He said that in an Indian context, more emphasis needed to be placed on water re- sources modelling and modelling of demographics, since both issues were

RESOURCES POLICY June 1988

of paramount importance for the fu- ture of the country.

Many papers were presented on ecosystems modelling; the primary focus of all of them was on its poten- tial application in planning, decision making and management processes in developing countries. Among the au- thors who presented major papers were Professor S.P. Mahajan, Head of the newly UNIDO-sponsored Pollu- tion Control Research Institute, Hard- war, India, on modelling of anaerobic digestion of distillery spentwash in a biological bed, Dr D. Mukherjee of the USA on habitat monitoring of living resources, R. Vidyasagar Rao of the Central Water Commission, India on modelling of environmental costs for water development projects, Pro- fessor A. Das Gupta of the Asian

Institute of Technology, Bangkok, on a modelling case study of groundwater withdrawal for Bangkok and its en- vironmental consequences, Dr A. Ghosal of the Indian Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, on the role of cybernetics in ecosystems modelling, and Dr A. Khosla on the modelling of sustainable development systems.

The seminar was well organized and the organizers, quite correctly, pro- vided adequate time for discussion. The papers prepared for the seminar will shortly be available as a book.

Asit K. Biswas President

International Society for Ecological Modelling

Oxford, UK

Cheaper to live clean National Workshop on Pollution in the Industrial Environment, Hardwar, India, 15-16 January 1988

A two-day national workshop on pollution in the industrial environ- ment was convened by Pollution Con- trol Research Institute (PCRI) at Hardwar, India, on 15-16 January, 1988. PCRI is a new institute jointly funded by UNIDO/UNDP and the government of India through Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL). With a generous $2.85 million financial support from UNIDO/UNDP for latest instruments to monitor and analyse air, water, soil and noise pollution and the assistance of well known international experts, PCRI has very rapidly built up a reputation unrivalled by any institution in any developing country for research, de- velopment and consultancy work in the area of environment and ecology as they relate to industrial develop- ment.

Municipal wastes

The national workshop, convened at PCRI, brought together international and national experts from various disciplines to discuss how best to

control and manage air, water and soil pollution from various industrial acti- vities.

In inaugurating the conference, Mr D.P. Goel, Additional General Mana- ger of BHEL, pointed out that while much experience exists in India on the collection and treatment of municipal wastes, similar experience is sadly lacking for the adequate treatment and final disposal of industrial wastes in an environmentally safe manner.

Environmental considerations

Professor S.P. Mahajan, Head of

the Pollution Control Research Insti- tute, said in welcoming the partici- pants that the time had come to call a halt to human activities which posi- tively harm the quality of water, air and land. Man must live in harmony with nature and cultivate a symbiotic relationship with it. Recycling of materials and waste products, con- servation of resources and increasing use of renewable resources are the need of the day.

Professor Asit K. Biswas of Oxford,

Conference reports

UK, President of the International Society for Ecological Modelling, said in his keynote address that the days were gone when it could be argued that environmental considerations could be the concern only of rich industrialized countries. All countries must make every effort to reduce environmental degradation. From a societal view point, it had been con- clusively proved that on a long-term basis it was far cheaper to live clean than to live dirty.

Presentations

Many topics were discussed at the workshop. Among the papers and contributors were ‘Anaerobic diges- tion of distillery spent wash in a biological fluidized bed’ by Professor S.P. Mahajan; ‘Monitoring and assess- ment of industrial pollution’ by Dr A.K. Biswas; ‘Solid wastes disposal through incineration’ by Dr N.C. Tre- han; ‘Formation and control of diox- ins’ by M.K. Ghosh; ‘Box model for air pollution’ by S.N. Sah; ‘Flue gas desulphurization by dual alkali pro- cess’ by A.K. Jain; ‘Case study of Jwalamukhi Project’ by Dr K.V. Ramani; ‘Effects of some ecological factors: a case study from Bhopal’ by Dr N.G. Srivastava; ‘Acid deposition and its impacts on the environment’ by Dr K. Keshav; ‘Risk analysis in che- mical industries’ by A. Gael; and ‘BASF’s effluent treatment plant: a case study’ by A. Kumar.

The papers were well prepared and presented, and the level of discussion by the participants was high. Selected papers from the workshop will be published in the Institute’s new Jour- nal of the Industrial Environment. Further information on the workshop, journal or PCRI can be obtained from Professor S.P. Mahajan, Head of the Pollution Control Research Institute, BHEL, Ranipur, Hardwar - 249403, UP, India.

Asit K. Biswas International Society for

Ecological Modelling Oxford, UK

RESOURCES POLICY June 1988 153