modeling overview for barrio logan community health neighborhood assessment program andrew ranzieri...

Modeling OverviewModeling Overview For Barrio LoganFor Barrio LoganCommunity HealthCommunity Health

Neighborhood Assessment ProgramNeighborhood Assessment Program

Andrew RanzieriAndrew RanzieriVlad IsakovVlad IsakovTony ServinTony ServinShuming DuShuming Du

October 10, 2001October 10, 2001Air Resources BoardAir Resources Board

California Environmental Protection AgencyCalifornia Environmental Protection Agency

Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONMODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

A scientific process to ensure models A scientific process to ensure models are working properly and predict reliable are working properly and predict reliable concentrations concentrations


Microscale Tracer Experiment at Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio LoganBarrio Logan

Tracer Experiment conducted from August 21-30, 2001Tracer Experiment conducted from August 21-30, 2001 Hourly SF6 concentrations sampled at 50 sitesHourly SF6 concentrations sampled at 50 sites Tracer released at NASSO during daytime from 10 a.m. to Tracer released at NASSO during daytime from 10 a.m. to

10 p.m.10 p.m. Mobile van sampled continuously to measure crosswind Mobile van sampled continuously to measure crosswind

SF6 concentrationsSF6 concentrations Mini-sodar to measure vertical winds up to 200m at 5m Mini-sodar to measure vertical winds up to 200m at 5m

resolutionresolution Six sonic anemometers to measure surface level winds Six sonic anemometers to measure surface level winds

and turbulenceand turbulence


Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio LoganMicroscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

Status of Performance Evaluation – Status of Performance Evaluation – MicroscaleMicroscale

TracerTracer Data Data

Contractor is conducting QA analysis on data sets to Contractor is conducting QA analysis on data sets to assure quality dataassure quality data

ARB evaluating non-QA data for SF6 and meteorologyARB evaluating non-QA data for SF6 and meteorology

Not all meteorological data are currently available Not all meteorological data are currently available (sonics)(sonics)

Conducting “preliminary” data analysis Conducting “preliminary” data analysis



Plotting hourly SF6 data (spatial maps) to understand Plotting hourly SF6 data (spatial maps) to understand data set and identify outliersdata set and identify outliers

consistency between winds and concentrationsconsistency between winds and concentrations identify plume centerline and plume widthidentify plume centerline and plume width evaluate downwind dilution ratiosevaluate downwind dilution ratios identify data sets for initial model testing and identify data sets for initial model testing and

performance evaluationperformance evaluation work with contractor to resolve problemswork with contractor to resolve problems


ARB/UCR are conducting preliminary modeling to ARB/UCR are conducting preliminary modeling to assist in QA work and provide “fast track” modeling assist in QA work and provide “fast track” modeling resultsresults

ISCST3ISCST3

AERMODAERMOD

CALPUFFCALPUFF

UCRUCR



Preliminary results from data analysis and model Preliminary results from data analysis and model performance - ISCST3 resultsperformance - ISCST3 results

Status of Performance Evaluation – MicroscaleStatus of Performance Evaluation – Microscale

Meteorologyfrom NASSCO( sonic )




Meteorologyfrom Logan HS( sodar )




Meteorologyfrom Lindbergh( NWS data )


Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results with observations (selected days/hours)with observations (selected days/hours)



Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results with observations (all days)with observations (all days)



Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results with observations (all data)with observations (all data)



Preliminary modeling results: CALPUFF, 08/21/01, 11 a.m.Status of Performance Evaluation – MicroscaleStatus of Performance Evaluation – Microscale

486.50 487.00 487.50 488.00 488.50 489.00 489.50 490.00

3616.00

3616.50

3617.00

3617.50

3618.00

3618.50

3619.00

3619.50

9 0 3 0 6 03 6 0 0

4 9 0

6 4 0

1 0

0

1 0

000

0

00

1 2 09 0 1 7 0

1 1 0

2 7 0

1 9 01 2 08 0

2 0

1 0 0

2 0

00 1 0 1 0

02 0

3 08 0

1 5 0

1 2 0

1 2 0

1 1 0

1 5 06 0

5 0

4 0

1 01 0

2 0

0

1 0

1 0

2 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 0 0 0

C A L P U F F m o d e l i n g r e s u l t a t h o u r : 1 1 , 8 / 2 1 / 2 0 0 1 .A l s o s h o w n a r e o b s e r v a t i o n a l d a t a ( t h e n u m b e r s ) .

u n i t o f c o n c e n t r a t i o n : p p t .

486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.0 489.5 490.0

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

3618.5

3619.0

3619.5

-1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

(m eter)

Source

M onitors

M onitors

U TM Eastern (km )

UT

M N

ort

he

rn (

km)

S u rfa ce w in d a t h o u r 1 1 o n 0 8 /2 1 /2 0 0 1 .W in d m ea su re m en ts a t 3 lo c a tio n s:L in d b e rg h : w s = 3 .0 9 m /s , w d = 2 0 0 d e g re e ;N A S S C O : w s = 2 .4 1 m /s , w d = 2 2 5 d e g re e ; S O D A R : w s = 3 .9 0 m /s , w d = 2 1 4 d e g re e .O b se rv e d p lu n e ra n g e d fro m 2 1 5 ~ 2 3 5 d e g ree , co n s is te n t w ith a ll th e se m e asu red w in d d ire c tio n s .


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF - all data


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF (without turbulence data at school)

paired

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.00E-02 1.00E-01 1.00E+00 1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 1.00E+05 1.00E+06

obs (ppt)

pre

d (

pp

t)


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF - all data


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF (without turbulence data at school)

paired

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 1.00E+05 1.00E+06

obs (ppt)

pre

d (

pp

t)


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF, Run-length average


comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF (without turbulence data at school)

run length average, paired

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.00E-02 1.00E-01 1.00E+00 1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 1.00E+05 1.00E+06

obs (ppt)

pre

d (

pp

t)


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF (without turbulence profile data)- selected data set, correlation coefficient = 0.747


selected dataset (same data base as for the ISCST3 comparison)correlation coefficient = 0.747

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E-02 1.00E-01 1.00E+00 1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 1.00E+05obs (ppt)

pre

d (

pp

t)


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF (without turbulence profile data)- selected data set


selected dataset (same data base as for the ISCST3 comparison)unpaired

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E-02 1.00E-01 1.00E+00 1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 1.00E+05obs (ppt)

pre

d (

pp

t)


Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF - Two examples of hourly comparison

Two examples are closely examined– one good case: hour 11,8/21/2001– one bad case: hour 21, 8/29/2001

These two examples suggest that wind direction has a controlling effect on estimating concentrations.



CALPUFF modeling results at hour 11, 8/21/2001


486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.0 489.5 490.0

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

3618.5

3619.0

3619.5

-1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

(m eter)

Source

M onitors

M onitors

U TM Eastern (km )

UT

M N

ort

he

rn (

km)

S u rfa ce w in d a t h o u r 1 1 o n 0 8 /2 1 /2 0 0 1 .W in d m ea su re m en ts a t 3 lo c a tio n s :L in d b e rg h : w s = 3 .0 9 m /s , w d = 2 0 0 d e g re e ;N A S S C O : w s = 2 .4 1 m /s , w d = 2 2 5 d e g re e ; S O D A R : w s = 3 .9 0 m /s , w d = 2 1 4 d e g re e .O b se rv e d p lu n e ra n g e d fro m 2 1 5 ~ 2 3 5 d e g ree , co n s is te n t w ith a ll th e se m e asu red w in d d ire c tio n s .

486.50 487.00 487.50 488.00 488.50 489.00 489.50 490.00

3616.00

3616.50

3617.00

3617.50

3618.00

3618.50

3619.00

3619.50

9 0 3 0 6 03 6 0 0

4 9 0

6 4 0

1 0

0

1 0

000

0

00

1 2 09 0 1 7 0

1 1 0

2 7 0

1 9 01 2 08 0

2 0

1 0 0

2 0

00 1 0 1 0

02 0

3 08 0

1 5 0

1 2 0

1 2 0

1 1 0

1 5 06 0

5 0

4 0

1 01 0

2 0

0

1 0

1 0

2 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 0 0 0




CALPUFF modeling results at hour 21, 8/29/2001


486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.0 489.5 490.0

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

3618.5

3619.0

3619.5

-1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

(m eter)

Source

M onitors

M onitors

U TM Eastern (km )

UT

M N

ort

he

rn (

km)

S u rfa ce w in d a t h o u r 2 1 o n 0 8 /2 9 /2 0 0 1 .W in d m ea su re m en ts a t 3 lo c a tio n s:L in d b e rg h : w s = 2 .5 7 m /s , w d = 2 3 0 d e g re e ;N A S S C O : w s = 0 .8 6 m /s , w d = 2 5 5 d e g re e ; S O D A R : w s = 2 .6 7 m /s , w d = 2 4 4 d e g re e .O b se rv e d p lu n e ra n g e d fro m 1 8 0 ~ 2 2 5 d e g ree , su g g es tin g th a t L in d b e rg h m a y b e m o re rep rese n ta tiv e .

486.50 487.00 487.50 488.00 488.50 489.00 489.50 490.00

3616.00

3616.50

3617.00

3617.50

3618.00

3618.50

3619.00

3619.50

607019970

1050

1650

150

0

690

350

910580610

300

720920650

730360190 1170

0

000

0

400

0

200 80 130

340580

430810

430

480

170

70

00

0

0

00

0

0

1 0

2 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 0 0 0




CALPUFF modeling results at hour 21, 8/29/2001 (wind direction is shifted to make the predicted plume line up with the observed)


486.50 487.00 487.50 488.00 488.50 489.00 489.50 490.00

3616.00

3616.50

3617.00

3617.50

3618.00

3618.50

3619.00

3619.50

607019970

1050

1650

150

0

690

350

910580610

300

720920650

730360190 1170

0

000

0

400

0

200 80 130

340580

430810

430

480

170

70

00

0

0

00

0

0

1 0

2 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 0 0 0



486.50 487.00 487.50 488.00 488.50 489.00 489.50 490.00

3616.00

3616.50

3617.00

3617.50

3618.00

3618.50

3619.00

3619.50

607019970

1050

1650

150

0

690

350

910580610

300

720920650

730360190 1170

0

000

0

400

0

200 80 130

340580

430810

430

480

170

70

00

0

0

00

0

0

1 0

2 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 0 0 0


W i n d d i r e c t i o n w a s s h i f t e d s o t h a t t h e p r e d i c t e d p l u m e i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e o b s e r v e d .



Comparison between observations and predictions of CALPUFF


Comparison of peak concentrations along sampling arcs (500m, 1000 m, 2000 m)

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E+00 1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 1.00E+05

obs (ppt)

pre

d (

pp

t)

Comparison between peak concentrations along monitoring

arcs (1000 m, & 2000 m)

Comparison between peak concentrations along monitoring

arcs (500m, 1000 m, & 2000 m)Comparison of peak concentrations along sampling arcs (1000 m, 2000 m)

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E+00 1.00E+01 1.00E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 1.00E+05

obs (ppt)

pre

d (

pp

t)


Planning for the winter tracer experiment


During the winter time it is more difficult to choose suitable monitoring locations because of the high variability of wind direction

Several examples are presented to show the variability of daytime wind direction during winter is higher than during summer


CALPUFF result for monthly average in January (left) and August (right) 2000


486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.03614.5

3615.0

3615.5

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

0.065

0.200

0.500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000

H y p o th e tic a l re le ase s fro m N A S S C O (X = 4 8 7 .2 5 k m ,Y = 3 6 1 6 .5 k m , Q = 1 g /s )

R e lea se h e ig h t = 1 0 m . R e le a se tim e : 8 a m - 7 p m .

M o n th ly a v e ra g e co n ce n tra tio n fo r Ja n u a ry , 2 0 0 0 .

unit: ug/m **3

U TM X (km )

UT

M Y

(km

)

Length of b lack stra ight lines: 2 km ;

SF6 detection lim it: 10 ppt ~ 0.065 ug/m **3

Proposed d istances for m onitor locations: 100 m , 500 m , 1000 m , 1500 m , and 2000 m .

486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.03614.5

3615.0

3615.5

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

0.065

0.200

0.500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000

H y p o th e tic a l re le a se s fro m N A S S C O (X = 4 8 7 .2 5 k m ,Y = 3 6 1 6 .5 k m , Q = 1 g /s )


M o n th ly a v e ra g e c o n ce n tra tio n fo r A u g u s t, 2 0 0 0 .

unit: ug/m **3

U TM X (km )

UT

M Y

(km

)




CALPUFF results: hour 10, 1/18/00 (left), hour 11, 1/18/000 (middle), and hour 14, 1/18/00 (right)


486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.03614.5

3615.0

3615.5

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

0.065

0.200

0.500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000

H y p o th e tic a l re le ase s fro m N A S S C O (X = 4 8 7 .2 5 k m ,Y = 3 6 1 6 .5 k m , Q = 1 g /s )


1 -h o u r a v e ra g e co n c en tra tio n a t h o u r 1 4 , 0 1 /1 8 /2 0 0 0 .

unit: ug/m **3

U TM X (km )

UT

M Y

(km

)




486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.03614.5

3615.0

3615.5

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

0.065

0.200

0.500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000




unit: ug/m **3

U TM X (km )

UT

M Y

(km

)




486.5 487.0 487.5 488.0 488.5 489.03614.5

3615.0

3615.5

3616.0

3616.5

3617.0

3617.5

3618.0

0.065

0.200

0.500

1.000

2.000

5.000

10.000

20.000

50.000




unit: ug/m **3

U TM X (km )

UT

M Y

(km

)





Defined modeling domainDefined modeling domain Generated 3-dimensional winds and temperatures Generated 3-dimensional winds and temperatures

for 1998 using MM5 for input to CMAQfor 1998 using MM5 for input to CMAQ Generated 3-dimensional winds using CALMET for Generated 3-dimensional winds using CALMET for

input to UAMinput to UAM Development of gridded emissions inventoryDevelopment of gridded emissions inventory Initial testing of CMAQ to estimate secondary Initial testing of CMAQ to estimate secondary

pollutantspollutants Comparison of CMAQ results with other models Comparison of CMAQ results with other models

and observationsand observations

Status of Model Performance Status of Model Performance Evaluation - RegionalEvaluation - Regional


CMAQCMAQ (1 day 08/05/97)(1 day 08/05/97) 2 - 102 - 10 (San Diego) (San Diego)2 - 182 - 18 (Los Angeles) (Los Angeles)

EPA OZIPR EPA OZIPR (summer)(summer) 8 - 198 - 19 (Los Angeles) (Los Angeles)EPA OZIPR EPA OZIPR (ann. avg.)(ann. avg.) 14.514.5 (Los Angeles) (Los Angeles)

1.1 - primary, 13.4 - secondary1.1 - primary, 13.4 - secondary

CALINE CALINE (annual avg.)(annual avg.) 0.1- 0.20.1- 0.2 (Barrio Logan) - primary (Barrio Logan) - primary ISCST3 ISCST3 (annual avg.)(annual avg.) < 1< 1 (Barrio Logan) - primary (Barrio Logan) - primary

Observed Observed (ann. avg., 97)(ann. avg., 97) 2.92.9 (San Diego, Chula Vista) (San Diego, Chula Vista) 4.54.5 (Los Angeles, N. Long Beach) (Los Angeles, N. Long Beach)1.4 - 5.51.4 - 5.5 (Barrio Logan, 1999-2000 (Barrio Logan, 1999-2000

monthly averages)monthly averages)

Initial Model Testing: CMAQInitial Model Testing: CMAQFormaldehyde Concentrations Formaldehyde Concentrations [µg/m[µg/m33]]


Future WorkFuture Work

Conduct another SF6 tracer experiment at Barrio Conduct another SF6 tracer experiment at Barrio Logan and VOC sampling at Barrio Logan Logan and VOC sampling at Barrio Logan (November 15 – January 15, 2002)(November 15 – January 15, 2002)

Evaluate microscale modeling for summer and Evaluate microscale modeling for summer and winter time conditions at Barrio Loganwinter time conditions at Barrio Logan

Recommend models for neighborhood assessmentRecommend models for neighborhood assessment

MICROSCALE MODELINGMICROSCALE MODELING



Assess accuracy of emission inventory estimates at Assess accuracy of emission inventory estimates at Barrio LoganBarrio Logan

Generate gridded hourly emissions inventory for Generate gridded hourly emissions inventory for 1998 for input to CMAQ and UAM1998 for input to CMAQ and UAM

EMISSIONS INVENTORYEMISSIONS INVENTORY



Evaluate regional performance for CMAQ and UAM Evaluate regional performance for CMAQ and UAM for hourly, 24 hour, and annual averaging timesfor hourly, 24 hour, and annual averaging times

Predict spatially resolved Predict spatially resolved annualannual ambient toxic ambient toxic concentrations for southern Californiaconcentrations for southern California

REGIONAL MODELINGREGIONAL MODELING


modeling overview for barrio logan community health neighborhood assessment program andrew ranzieri...

Documents

performance evaluationwork

turbulenceworking draft

problemsworking draft

data sets

meteorological data

nonqa data

qa analysis

barrio logan tracer