model complementarity for integrated spatial planning (isp...

1 WWF Luc Hoffmann Institute

Andrea M. Bassi, Ph.D.CEO, KnowlEdge Srl and LIVES Theme 3 Lead

ACES, 11 December 2014

Model complementarity for

Integrated Spatial Planning (ISP)

KnowlEdge Srl

2 Luc Hoffmann Institute

Infrastructure is the physical components of interrelated

systems providing commodities and services essential to enable,

sustain, or enhance societal living conditions Fulmer, 2009.

THE CHALLENGE

How best to plan roads, railways, power, waste management, irrigation infrastructure in a context of climate change and equitable development?


THE GOAL: an Integrated Assessment


PoliciesInvestment

(e.g.,capitalinvestmentinREandEEfor

extracapacityandretrofits)

Mandatesandtargets(e.g.,REandEEstandards,deforestation

andreforestationtargets)

Subsidies(e.g.,feedintariffsforenergy,taxrebates,paymentsforecosystem

services)

Scenarios Climatechange,energyprices,conflicts,peakoil,worldeconomicgrowth,etc.

Structure

Socialsectors Economicsectors Environmentalsectors

Population

Education

Infrastructure(e.g.transport)

Employment

Incomedistribution

Production(GDP)

TechnologyHouseholdsaccounts

Governmentaccounts

Investment(publicandprivate)

Balanceandfinancing

GovernmentdebtBalanceofpayment

Internationaltrade

LandallocationanduseWaterdemandandsupply

Energydemandandsupply

(bysectorandenergysource)

GHGandotheremissions

(sourcesandsinks)Footprint

Society

Economy Environment

SCIENCE RESPONSEHolistic analysis take into account the drivers of social development and economic performance to reach sustainability


Several tools and methods can be used to support the assessment of spatial developments:

1. Indicators and Data Frameworks

2. Spatial Planning Tools

3. Environmental Accounting Tools

4. Natural Capital Valuation Tools

5. Investment/Policy Evaluation Tools

6. Scenario Creation Tools

7. Scenario Forecasting Tools

TOOLS FOR ISP


MANY ISOLATED TOOLS

• Energyefficiencyinvestment• Renewableenergyinvestment

• Thermalpowergenera oninvestmentInvestment

• Savingsonavoidedelectricityexpenditure• Savingsonavoidedcoalconsump onforpowergenera on

• Addi onalnetemploymentandincomegenerated

Avoidedexpenditureandaddedbenefits

• Savingsminusinvestments• Returnoninvestment

• Break-evenpointNetresults


THE SOLUTION: Tools Integration


Spatial information on natural capital (with economic

valuation) and scenarios

InVEST

(Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and

Tradeoffs)

WAVES

(Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem

Services)

SDM

(System Dynamics Integrated Modeling)

Cross-sectoral and macro, projects the impacts of green economy policies

Accounting framework to capture the key

dimensions of development

THE SOLUTION: Tools Integration


Policy evaluation makes use of the indicators identified

in the first two steps, to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention and the emergence of unexpected

impacts and trends.

Policy formulation analysis focuses on

issues and opportunities and

on the broader advantages and

disadvantages of policy

implementation

Issues, and relative policy goals, can be of general nature, social,

economic and environmental

Decision making is based on the results of the policy

formulation stage, and should account for the forecasted impacts of

policy implementation on the environment, the

economy and overall well-being of the population.

Issue Identification and Agenda Setting

Policy Formulation

-Assessment

Decision MakingPolicy Implementation

Policy Monitoring and Evaluation

ADVANTAGES: Policy Cycle


ADVANTAGES: Technical value addition

• Multi-stakeholder process, allows for the incorporation of indicators across sectors.

• Estimates social, economic and environmental impacts of action and inaction (internalizing externalities) through the endogenous calculation of cross-sectoral indicators.

• Incorporates of biophysical variables in the evaluation of the economic performance of the sectors, informing policy making.


Road construction

employment

opportunities

+


Road construction

employment

opportunities

Population

+

+


Road construction

employment

opportunities

Population

+

+

food demand

+


Road construction

agricultural land

employment

opportunities

Population

+

+

+

food demand

++


Road construction

agricultural land

employment

opportunities

Population

water demand

+

+

+

+

food demand

++


Road construction

agricultural land

employment

opportunities

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

+

-

+

+

food demand

++


Road construction

agricultural land

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

food demand

++


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

agricultural land

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

+

-

+

+

++

food demand

++


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in

agriculture for export

agricultural land

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

++

food demand

++


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

use of chemical

fertilizers

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

++

food demand

++


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

agricultural

productivity

use of chemical

fertilizers

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

++

food demand

++

+


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

agricultural

productivity

Forest land

use of chemical

fertilizers

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

++

food demand

++

+


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

agricultural

productivity

Forest landForest ecosystem

services

use of chemical

fertilizers

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

++

food demand

++

+

+


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

agricultural

productivity


services

use of chemical

fertilizers

soil quality

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

++

food demand

++

+

+


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

agricultural

productivity


services

use of chemical

fertilizers

soil quality

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

++

food demand

++

+

+


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

agricultural

productivity


services

use of chemical

fertilizers

soil quality

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

Waterefficiency

-

Afforestation and

reforestation+

Ecological

agriculture

-

+

food demand

++

++

+


Road construction

Economic

attractiveness

Investments in


agricultural land

agricultural

productivity


services

use of chemical

fertilizers

soil quality

employment

opportunities

water supply

water

availability

Population

water demand

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

Waterefficiency

-

Afforestation and

reforestation+

Ecological

agriculture

-

+

food demand

++

++

+

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032

Time

AgricultureLand(km2)

NO-ROAD ROAD GreenEconomy-1 GreenEconomy-2

THE RESULTS


green gdp

gdp

natural capital additions

+

consumption

demand of naturalresources

natural capital

+

+

natural capitalgrowth

+natural capitalextraction

natural capitaldepletion

natural capitalreductions

+

+

+

- +

ecosystemservices

productivity(tfp)

+

++

physical capital+investment depreciation

+

+

+ecologicalscarcity

-

-

human capital employedpopulation

job creation

+

retirement

publicexpenditure

health

education

human capitalgrowth

training

+

+

+

+

+

<human capitalgrowth>

+

privateprofits

+

+

+

wages

++

+

+

R

R

R

R

R

B

B

gdp of the poor

+

<gdp>+

THE MODEL


upstreamsediment delivery

fine sediment(suspension)

sand and gradedsuspension

bedload (sand andgravel)

land clearingwater

diversions

+

-

dam construction(size/capacity)

-

precipitation

rainfall variability

temperature

groundwateruse

agriculture productivity

+-

fooddemand

foodproduction

agriculture

land

+

+

+

population

+ desired

agriculture land

-

+

fish catch

+

desired crop consumptionfrom local production

desired fish consumption

from local production

desired meat

consumption from localproduction

+

+

+

+

gdp/income

fish price (import)

crop price (import)

meat price (import)

+

desired fishcatch

+

+

fish stock

+

settlement

land

grazing land-

-

+

+

meat

production

cropproduction

++

food self sufficiency <food demand>-

+

fish migration-

-

fish breedingfish mortality

+

+

+

-

+electricity supply +

+

employment

+

+

-

constructionmaterials extraction -

+

sediment budget(transboundary

impacts)

electricitydemand

+

+

energy selfsufficiency

-

+

+

+

delta economic productivity(transboundary dimension)

+

<fish catch>

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

<precipitation>

-

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

B1

B2

B3

B4

B5

R6

B6

food price+ ++

R7

dolphinpopulation

+

sustainable fishingpractices

++

tourism

+

<population>

+-

-

<agricultureproductivity>

-

road infrastructureinvestment

access to the ssk

+

+


THE IMPACT


RESEARCH PROJECT

Linked Indicators for Vital Ecosystem Services (LIVES)

To study FOOD ENERGY WATER (FEW) security, we work together in a collaborative research team.


Thank you!

For more information you can reach me at:

[email protected]

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