mobile trends 2020

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Mobile Trends 2020

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  • 1. mobile trends for the next 10 a collaborative outlook compliled by Rudy De Waele / m-trends.org

2. contributors Douglas Rushkoff4Kevin C. Tofel33Katrin Verclas5Jonathan MacDonald34Willem Boijens6David Wood36Timo Arnall 7Michael Breidenbruecker 37Gerd Leonhard 9Henri Moissinac 38Fabien Girardin 10 Andreas Constantinou39Alan Moore11 C. Enrique Ortiz40Martin Duval12 Raj Singh 42Tony Fish 13 Marc Davis43Ilja Laurs14 David Harper44Yuri van Geest15 Loic Le Meur45Nicolas Nova17 Ajit Jaokar 47Raimo van der Klein 18 Inma Martinez 48Russell Buckley 19 Carlos Domingo49Tomi Ahonen 20 Kelly Goto50Stefan Constantinescu 21 Felix Petersen51Rich Wong 23 Matthaus Krzykowski 53Marshall Kirkpatrick24 Tom Hume54Andy Abramson 25 Atau Tanaka 55Marek Pawlowski 26 Robert Rice 56Russ McGuire27 You! (if you like)58Carlo Longino 28Howard Rheingold30Steve O'Hear31 enjoy!Ted Morgan32 3. At the turn of a decade it's always worthwhile looking back to ones initial dreams. In my case it was all about being at the forefront of innovation in the mobile space. From viewing my first mobile video in Helsinki to thefirst mobile augmented reality demo in Amsterdam. I had the chance to participate in and witness many interesting projects in mobilefrom the 1st row: as an entrepreneur, a strategist, a conference organizer, a blogger, a speaker and a networker with a mission to inspireothers, to help them in the process of building new great things. To this end I have been writing down my predictions in mobile & wireless for a couple of years now. This year I thought it was the time tomove on and do something different, so I asked some of my personal heroes in mobile to write down their five most significant trends forthe coming decade. All of them have been of great inspiration to me during this decade: for their ideas, visions, talent, the capabilities to adapt and theperseverance to succeed whatever the situation. While I didn't know any one of these great people 10 years ago, I'm glad to have metmost of them and proud that some I can call them real friends. I am in awe and grateful when I look at the wisdom and insight that these busy people were so happy to share with the world. It is exactly in this spirit that I myself want to move on into the next decade. Convinced that more openness, knowledge sharing andcollaboration is key to facing our global challenges, in 2009, I co-founded dotopen.com. A space at the fuzzy edges of innovation,dotopen.com will hopefully help many entrepreneurs and organizations across all industries to open up, exchange, collaborate, create andinspire. I hope to meet you all there! Rudy De Waeleco-founder dotopen.com, blogger, speaker@mtrendsm-trends.orgBY NC ND 4. 1. ESP sensors. Probably based on brainwave activity. Not so hard.2. Driving locks.3. Implanted bluetooth ear and microphone.4. Verizon abandons CDMA.5. Radiation and brain damage documented.Douglas RushkoffAuthor of Life Inc.@rushkoffrushkoff.com BY NC ND4 5. Katrin VerclasCo-founder & editor of MobileActive.org@KatrinSkayamobileactive.org 1. Mobiles in social development will truly become an integral part of developmentprojectsand programmes with aid organizations understanding the potential of mobiles and smartly deploying mobile tech aspart of their programmes. UNICEF and CONCERN will be at the vanguard.2. Africa will see the first truly mobile political campaign. It'll be likely in Nigeria in 2010. 3. Mobile payments will be widespread - for social benefit payments by governments, for remittances acrossborders, and for tax and other payments by citizens. This will make financial governance every so slightly moreaccountable in developing countries, and will begin to make a positive economic impact at the bottom of theeconomic pyramid.4. Health care delivery, especially in developing countries, will see some true breakthroughs withmore telemedicine projects like mobile ultrasound and other diagnostics. New business models involving medicalexpertise remotely will emerge so that the divide between healthcare between rich and poor areas will flatten.5. Elections and other forms of political expression by citizens, government oversight will be radicallydifferent than they are today by way of mobile voting, mobiles for reporting and government accountability.6. Environmental monitoringin the form of smart sensing devices will be part of everyday life with new formsof scientific environmental discovery and mitigation possible.BY NC ND5 6. 1. We're all value creators: value creation & exchange, collaboration, cocreation inreal-time, the next billion internet users 2. LifeFlow: wellbeing, productivity, efficiency, sustainability 3. Sense:natural interfaces, projection display, Large Quantity Information Display (LQID),ambient vs single task driven UIs 4. Swarming: dynamic grids, ad-hoc & meshed networks, spatial data, adaptivearchitecture, smart mobility & energy services 5. Morph: identities, shapes & materials, wearables, disposables, digestables Willem BoijensMarketing innovation & designexecutive/ Principal manager atVodafone Group Marketing@willemjhboijensvodafone.com BY NC ND6 7. 1. Things and services: The increasing connection between physical devices and online services willdrive new applications that take personal data and turn it into useful, personal, social, visual andmanipulable representations. With all of these personal activities that can be measured or'counted' (Nike+, Wattson and Foursquare are prototypical) there is potential for a broad range ofpersonal and public services.2. Physical diversification:There will be an enormous physical diversification of connected devices.In many cases a connected object are no longer just 'mobile' but e-readers, cameras, music players,and household appliances all the way up to cars, public spaces and buildings (where there is a goodreason to do so).3. Daily data:As we begin to learn how to create and manipulate our online 'data shadows' that arecreated out of this data (cf. Mike Kuniavsky), this will have significant effects on everyday life and onour sense of value in personal information. The impact of this will be felt through changes in daily lifethat try to influence the 'things that can be counted'.4. Pervasive privacy:Because of the increased visibility of everyday activities, places, relationships,finances, health, etc. the issues around privacy will really come to a head. Not just the 'big brother'privacy issues that will be tested through the legal system, but really sticky, complex social andpersonal privacy issues that are difficult for technology alone to resolve (cf. Everyware).5. Always-on backlash: In reaction to increased, pervasive connectivity, there must be an 'always-on backlash' en masse. There will not just be niche communities choosing to 'opt-out', but it willbecome culturally, socially necessary and desirable to be offline. The ability to gracefully disconnect andgo 'dark' must become a USP for many products and services. Timo ArnallDesign Researcher at Oslo Schoolof Architecture and Design@TimoArnallelasticspace.com BY NC ND 7 8. [to gracefully disconnect] 9. 1. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1.0 & computer-centric advertising - and ads will become content, almost entirely. Advertisers will, within 2-5 years, massively convert to mobile, location-aware, targeted, opt-ed-in, social and user-distributed 'ads'; from 1% of their their budgets to at least 1/3 of their total advertising budget. Advertising becomes 'ContVertising' - and Google's revenues will be 10x of what they are today, in 5 years, driven by mobile, and by video.2. Tablet devices will become the waymany of us will 'read' magazines, books, newspapers and even 'attend' live concerts, conferences and events. The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off but every major device maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months. In addition, tablets will kick off the era of mobile augmented reality. This will be a huge boon to the content industries, worldwide - but only if they can drop their mad content protection schemes, and slash the prices in return for a much larger user base.3. Many makers of simple smart phones- probably starting with Nokia- will make their devices available for free - but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards) from all transactions that are done through the devices, e.g. banking, small purchases, on-demand content etc. Mobile phones become wallets, banks and ATMs.4. Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks, i.e. without SIM cards. The likes of Google (Nexus), and maybe Skype, LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that will work only on Wifi / WiMax, LTE or mashed-access networks, and will offer more or less free calls. This will finally wake up the mobile network operators, and force them to really move up the food-chain - into content and the provision of 'experiences'5. Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts, starting with music, i.e. once your mobile phone / computer is online, much of the use of the content (downloaded or streamed) will be included. Bundles and flat-rates - many of them Advertising 2.0-supported - will become the primary way of consuming, and interacting with content. First music, then books, new and magazines, then film & TV.Gerd Leonhard Author & Blogger, Keynote Speaker & Strategist @gleonhard mediafuturist.com BY NC ND9 10. 1. Web of things:an average networked pet will have a voice, generating more data traffic than the average human 2. Digital syllogomania: digital garbage collection becomes a (very) lucrative business 3. Networked urbanism: mobile data warping scandals will make us doubt on the ability to regulate urban dynamics with data and intelligent algorithms 4. Seamful design: opt-out mechanisms with awareness before experiencing dense data clouds, their scattered intelligent services and the