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Ministerial Reshuffle Speculation Briefing August 2012 DeHavilland Political Research DeHavilland Parliamentary Affairs

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Ministerial Reshuffle Speculation

Briefing

August 2012

DeHavilland Political Research DeHavilland Parliamentary Affairs

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Table of Contents

Introduction

Department for Business, Innovation and Skills

Cabinet Office

Conservative Party Chairman

Department for Communities and Local Government

Department for Culture, Media and Sport

Ministry of Defence

Department for Education

Department of Energy and Climate Change

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Foreign and Commonwealth Office

Department of Health

Home Office

Department for International Development

Ministry of Justice

Northern Ireland Office

Office of the Leader of the House of Commons / Lords

Scotland Office

Department for Transport

HM Treasury

Wales Office

The Whips’ Office

Department for Work and Pensions

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Introduction Speculation surrounding a ministerial reshuffle has grown in recent weeks, with commentators increasingly pointing to a September shake-up. Some commentators are anticipating a reshuffle as early as the first week of September, to coincide with the return of the Commons from summer recess, but before party conference season begins. The Prime Minister will be restricted in any attempt to revitalise the Cabinet because of several considerations. First, he may seek to strike a balance between punishing disloyalty – for example, by sacking the three Cabinet Ministers who reportedly called for the Health and Social Care Bill to be dropped – and rewarding loyalty, perhaps by promoting backbenchers who have voted against their conscience on certain issues. Mr Cameron’s approach will also be dictated by a need to placate the increasingly restive 2010 Conservative intake by promoting some of its more prominent MPs. Other commentators have suggested that it is the 2005 intake of MPs that will benefit most from the reshuffle. If either cohort is to benefit, this may even involve promoting some of those who rebelled by voting for the backbench motion on an EU referendum last October and those who voted against the progression of the Government’s House of Lords Reform Bill to second reading in July. The benefits of bringing rebels onto the Government payroll are twofold. Firstly, it could appease those who share the rebels’ views, and secondly, it could effectively silence rebellious backbench voices. Indeed, the idea of an amnesty for former rebels has been floated by various commentators in recent weeks, including Tim Montgomerie of the influential ConservativeHome grassroots website and Brendan Carlin of the Daily Mail. Other restrictions are self-imposed. In Opposition, Mr Cameron stated his ‘aspiration’ to give a third of Government jobs to women by the end of his first term. Presently, just 12 of 85 Conservatives Ministers, Whips and Lords spokespeople are women – a paltry 14 per cent. For Mr Cameron to reach the target of a third in a single reshuffle, he would need to replace 16 men with women. It is therefore unlikely that his aspiration will be met on this occasion – especially with female Cabinet Ministers among those tipped to lose their jobs – but a drive for greater representation of women in his Government will surely guide his hand. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has fewer Ministers to shuffle and a smaller parliamentary party to draw from, but he may also be keen to promote women given that there is currently not a single female Lib Dem in the Cabinet. The ratio of Conservative to Liberal Democrat Ministers, despite Tory grumbles that the size of the Lib Dem parliamentary party does not justify their current number Government jobs, is likely to remain constant. Indeed, as the Coalition Agreement, the founding text of the Government, states:

“No Liberal Democrat Minister or Whip may be removed on the recommendation of the Prime Minister without full consultation with the Deputy Prime Minister.”

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Furthermore, the Deputy Prime Minister retains a formal consultative and nominating role in all ministerial appointments. In theory, any single ministerial move requires the consent of both the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister. In this speculation document we have sought to collate all the rumours surrounding the reshuffle into one place. By their very nature these are unreliable and subject to constant rebuttal and revision. Indeed, some may have even been conjured up out of thin air by mischievous political journalists. However, some rumours have persisted and by reviewing these we are able to provide an interesting overview of the way the Government could potentially look for the second half of this Parliament. Back to contents

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Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS)

Business Writing for the Daily Telegraph in July, Sue Cameron noted “speculation...about Vince Cable...who may step down with a view to becoming leader of the Lib Dems in the Commons”. The logic behind Cable relinquishing his current position, Ms Cameron writes, would be to enable him to form a deal with a Labour Party that will “never do a deal with Mr Clegg” after the 2015 general election. Were he to step down, Dr Cable would prefer Chief Secretary of the Treasury, Danny Alexander, to replace him as Business Secretary, Cameron writes. David Laws is pointed to as the most likely replacement for Danny Alexander, should he move to BIS. Mr Alexander, of course, replaced Mr Laws just 17 days into the Coalition Government, after resigning when disclosure of his expenses claims revealed that he had claimed more than £40,000 on his expenses in the form of second home costs, whilst renting rooms at properties owned by his partner. Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph noted in March that: “senior Tories are pressing for BIS... to be led by a Conservative. This would, they argue, prevent the Coalition effectively running two differing economic strategies”. Former Conservative MP Paul Goodman wrote in the Daily Telegraph in August that “the consensus of senior Conservatives and young Turks alike is that replacing Dr Cable with a more business-friendly figure would boost supply-side change, rally business confidence and signal to voters that the Government is going for growth”. However, as Goodman notes, such a move would require the Prime Minister to either replace Dr Cable with another Liberal Democrat, perhaps David Laws who is perceived by many Conservatives as fully signed up to the Government’s economic strategy, or to effectively swap BIS for another important department, such as the Home Office. The less excitable Simon Walters and Glen Owen of the Daily Mail wrote in August that Dr Cable is “likely to stay put”, along with the other three Lib Dem Cabinet Ministers. That same month, Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome labelled Decentralisation and Cities Minister Greg Clark (who sits in both BIS and the Department for Communities and Local Government) as one of the “junior ministers who've performed well in their briefs and are knocking at the door of the Cabinet” in August. Mr Clark was tipped in July by James Chapman of the Daily Mail to take over at the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, should Caroline Spelman lose her job. Minister for Trade and Investment, Lord Green, came under sustained pressure in July following revelations of money laundering at HSBC during his tenure as the bank’s chief executive and chairman. Despite this, Leader of the House of Lords Lord Strathclyde rejected calls for his resignation on the grounds that “no minister needs to be accountable to parliament for his previous career, only for what they are doing as ministers”. However, writing in March, Philip Aldrick of the Daily Telegraph suggested that Lord Green is “thought to be favoured by the Chancellor” for the role of Governor of the Bank of England. A decision on Sir Mervyn King’s

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replacement is “expected by the end of the year”, so if Lord Green is in the running, a September reshuffle would be an ideal time for him to step down from his current Ministerial role.

Higher and Further Education Ephraim Hardcastle of the Daily Mail reported in February that the Education Secretary Michael Gove, angered by the appointment of Professor Les Ebdon as the director of the Office for Fair Access by Vince Cable, had indicated his intention to bring the responsibility for higher education to the DfE as part of a reshuffle. Were Mr Gove to get his way, the move would cost David Willetts his position as Universities and Science Minister at BIS, Hardcastle writes. Indeed, Mr Gove told a meeting of the Education Select Committee in January 2012 that “I think it was wrong to split universities and science away from the Department for Education, but one must not make the best the enemy of the good, and at the moment we have a superb team of Ministers in BIS, who are doing a brilliant job, so I have enough to get on with at the moment.” Writing in August, Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome, stated that if the Prime Minister does opt for a “long knives reshuffle so that he can freshen his team with a large number of new faces...Willetts could also be vulnerable”. Another possibility is that Mr Willetts, along with his portfolio of responsibilities, would simply be transferred to the DfE, giving Mr Gove greater control over the Government’s higher education policy. Alternatively, Mr Willetts could sit in a cross-department position, akin to John Hayes (Skills and Lifelong Learning Minister, who sits in both the Department for Education and BIS). However, any mention of Mr Hayes has been largely absent from reshuffle speculation. This is perhaps unsurprising given that Mr Hayes performed the same role in opposition for the entirety of David Cameron’s time as Leader of the Opposition. If Mr Hayes were to lose his position however, one possible replacement is Elizabeth Truss who has been widely tipped for a junior ministerial role at the DfE. Back to contents

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Cabinet Office Rosa Prince of the Daily Telegraph recently suggested that Francis Maude may not be safe at the Cabinet Office. Mr Maude came under fire in March when he urged people to store extra fuel in a jerry can in case of an industry strike. At the time, the Government were accused of spreading unnecessary panic by encouraging drivers to stockpile fuel in case of an Easter strike by tanker drivers in the Unite union. Writing in mid-August, Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph named Mr Maude as one of several ministers “jockeying to replace” Justice Secretary Ken Clarke. Lib Dem Voice, the blog for Liberal Democrat activists, speculates that David Laws could make a return to the Cabinet. The blog reports that Nick Clegg believes the party needs Mr Laws’ expertise and media savvy, and is considering restoring him as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. David Laws was the first minister to lose his job, resigning in May 2010, following revelations about his expenses claims. He was later found guilty of breaching the rules, including wrongly claiming expenses to pay rent to his partner. In November 2010 Mr Cameron lent his support to Mr Laws, and said that he wanted to see him return to the Cabinet “soon”. If Mr Laws did make a return, incumbent Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander could be given a new role as a Parliamentary Private Secretary in the Cabinet Office, “where he will not have to handle quite so many tricky TV interviews,” Lib Dem Voice says. James Forsyth of the Daily Mail and Nicholas Watt of the Guardian both suggest that Mr Laws could return to Government as a policy minister, attending Cabinet and working in tandem with Cabinet Office Minister Oliver Letwin. Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph made the same suggestion in August. In such a scenario, Mr Laws may take the place of Baroness Warsi who currently sits in the Cabinet Office as a Minister without Portfolio. Additionally, Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post reports that Cabinet Office Minister Mark Harper– previously tasked with carrying out constitutional reform – could be moved into the Department for Health, particularly now that the House of Lords Reform Bill has been abandoned. James Chapman of the Daily Mail suggested in July that Mr Harper could be in line for a Cabinet post in the reshuffle, quoting a ‘source’ as saying: “It is the most difficult Tory job in the Government and Mark [Harper] has not put a foot wrong”. Baroness Warsi herself has been the subject of intense reshuffle speculation. In July she was found to be in breach of the House of Lords' code of conduct over her failure to properly register a property - although the same investigation cleared her of expenses irregularities. In June she had been found to have committed only a “minor breach” of the Ministerial Code by Sir Alex Allan, Mr Cameron’s adviser on ministerial interests, in relation to a trip to Pakistan with a business partner in July 2010.

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Minutes after the publication of the judgment the Prime Minister asserted that Baroness Warsi would be keeping her job as a Cabinet Office minister, but as Christopher Hope of the Daily Telegraph notes, his “statement made no reference to her much criticised role as party co-chairman”. Back to contents

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Conservative Party Chairman

Incumbent Conservative Party Co-chair and Cabinet Office Minister Baroness Warsi has been the subject of intense reshuffle speculation. In July she was found to be in breach of the House of Lords' code of conduct over her failure to properly to register a property - although the same investigation cleared her of expenses irregularities. In June, she had been found to have committed only a “minor breach” of the Ministerial Code by Sir Alex Allan, the Prime Minister’s adviser on ministerial interests, in relation to a trip to Pakistan with a business partner in July 2010. Minutes after the publication of the judgment, the Prime Minister asserted that Baroness Warsi would be keeping her job as a Cabinet Office minister, but as Christopher Hope of the Daily Telegraph notes, his “statement made no reference to her much criticised role as party co-chairman”. The most common suggestion as to Warsi’s replacement for the role of Party Chairman has been Housing Minister Grant Shapps, who is perceived by Tory high-command as a reliable media performer and a loyalist. Also linked with the role is current Conservative Party Deputy Chairman Michael Fallon, with George Eaton of the New Statesman writing that the Prime Minister “has faced persistent calls to replace her with Michael Fallon...or Grant Shapps, both viewed as superior media performers”. Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph suggested in August that Warsi would be replaced by Employment Minister Chris Grayling. Another suggestion, put forward by the Daily Mail, is Sport and Olympics Minister Hugh Robertson, whose workload will be significantly reduced following the conclusion of the Olympics and Paralympics. James Chapman of the Daily Mail suggested in July that Culture, Media and Sport Secretary Jeremy Hunt had been linked with the role, but now “looks likely to stay where he is pending the [Leveson] inquiry’s final report”. Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome has expressed his hope that Education Secretary Michael Gove would take up the role, but cautioned that he “[does not] expect it”. Instead, he writes, “Michael Fallon, [Transport Secretary] Justine Greening or most likely Grant Shapps may replace [Warsi]”. Writing in July, Sue Cameron of the Daily Telegraph also raised the notion of Mr Gove becoming Party Chairman. However, Matt Chorley and Jane Merrick of the Independent on Sunday wrote in August that “Sources close to Michael Gove...say he would be reluctant to become chairman”. The Guardian’s Stephen Pollard suggested in August that “it's far from inconceivable” that the Foreign Secretary, William Hague would be asked to replace Baroness Warsi. Furthermore, he writes “since there are so few obvious women poised for promotion, expect Warsi to be kept on in some capacity”. Writing for ConservativeHome, Tim Montomerie suggests that Baroness Warsi’s Co-Chair Andrew Feldman “should become Chief Executive of the Party (with responsibilities to chair the Party Board) so that the office of Party Chairman is restored to its traditional status”. Should she leave the Cabinet Office, Tim Shipman of the Daily Mail has linked Baroness Warsi with the position described by Paul Waugh of PoliticsHome as “in many ways her “dream job”; International Development Secretary. Back to contents

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Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG)

Over the last few months, Housing Minister Grant Shapps has been strongly touted for promotion, with sources suggesting that he could take over from Iain Duncan Smith as Work and Pensions Secretary or more likely, replace Baroness Warsi as Conservative Party Chairman. Mr Shapps has received notable praise within his party, with former Conservative MP and Executive Editor of the influential ConservativeHome Paul Goodman describing him as “highly rated for the energy and attacking zest... that he has brought to his housing portfolio”. James Chapman reporting in the Daily Mail writes that, if appointed Party Chairman, Mr Shapps might be tasked with an additional role at the Department for Work and Pensions, taking over from current Disabilities Minister Maria Miller who has been rumoured for promotion to Welsh Secretary. Additionally, Mr Chapman states that Cities and Decentralisation Minister Greg Clark could be set for promotion to Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary, should Caroline Spelman lose her job, as has been widely rumoured. Mr Clark, former Shadow Secretary for Energy and Climate Change, was one of the Conservative MPs left out of the Cabinet as a consequence of the formation of the Coalition Government, giving him good prospects for a role in the Prime Minister’s reshuffled Cabinet. Back to contents

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Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) The position of Culture, Media and Sport Secretary Jeremy Hunt is widely recognised as presenting difficulties for the Prime Minister, with his name consistently featuring near the top of bookmakers’ lists of vulnerable Cabinet Ministers. In the immediate aftermath of revelations about Mr Hunt’s conduct following sustained contact with News Corporation during its takeover bid for BSkyB, the Culture Secretary’s future looked particularly bleak. However, James Chapman of the Daily Mail suggested in July that Mr Hunt could simply stay at the DCMS until the findings of the Leveson Inquiry are known in full. Kay Burley of Sky News asked the Prime Minister directly in early August whether Mr Hunt was safe in his job. Cameron responded by saying that he did not want to play “reshuffle bingo”. Tellingly, James Chapman of the Daily Mail writes that the Prime Minister gave Chancellor, George Osborne, a guarantee that he would survive the reshuffle during the interview, but not Mr Hunt, despite stating that he had “self-evidently done a very good job”. Transport Secretary Justine Greening has been put forward as a possible replacement for Mr Hunt by conservative commentator Iain Dale, as her opposition to a third runway at Heathrow makes it difficult for her to stay in her current role, should the rumours that the Government will U-turn on the issue prove correct. Simon Walters and Glen Owen of the Daily Mail, writing in August, raised the possibility of a straight job swap between Ms Greening and Mr Hunt. Robert Winnett of the Daily Telegraph suggests that Mr Hunt could replace Ms Greening, but made no explicit mention of a straight swap. Before the Leveson Inquiry laid bare the extent of correspondence between News Corp lobbyist Frédéric Michel and Mr Hunt’s office, Mr Hunt had been tipped by Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph in March to replace Health Secretary Andrew Lansley. Sport and Olympics Minister Hugh Robertson, whose workload will be significantly reduced following the conclusion of the Olympics and Paralympics, was tipped by Nicholas Watt of the Guardian in August as one of the “talented middle ranking ministers” in line for a promotion. Mr Robertson’s prospects have been boosted after he received “widespread praise for his handling of the Olympics”, Watt writes. Against this backdrop, there have also been rumours that the DCMS could be abolished altogether, with Shadow Culture Secretary Harriet Harman writing a piece for the London Evening Standard in April in which she claimed that there are “well-sourced rumours in Westminster and the arts world that after the Olympics, the Government will announce that the DCMS is no longer needed”. David Wooding of the Sun wrote in July that the DCMS could be axed, with a Downing Street study suggesting that such a move “would save £1.3 billion”. Alternatively, some of the functions of the DCMS could be transferred to other departments such as BIS, leaving a more streamlined department. If some of the DCMS’s functions were hived off to other departments, it has also been floated that Culture, Communications and Creative Industries Minister Ed Vaizey could be in line for a promotion. Alternatively, he may replace Mr Hunt if the DCMS was to survive in some form. Back to contents

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Ministry of Defence (MoD) Another Cabinet member to fare well in reshuffle speculation is Philip Hammond. Mr Hammond, originally appointed as Transport Secretary following the 2010 general election, was only moved to the position of Defence Secretary in October 2011 following the resignation of Liam Fox. Mr Hammond was one name put forward for the role of Chancellor - a position that Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post suggests he covets - during a bout of speculation surrounding George Osborne’s future in early August. However, the chances of this move now appear slim, after the Prime Minister quashed the rumours by telling Sky News on 3 August that Mr Osborne is “going nowhere” and will still be Chancellor in 2015. Other commentators, such as Sophy Ridge of Sky News, have rejected speculation surrounding Mr Hammond on the grounds that he has only recently moved into the post. Elsewhere in the MoD, conservative commentator Iain Dale lists Ministers Gerald Howarth and Peter Luff as among those who may be shifted out of Government. Mr Howarth’s position may be threatened by his apparent opposition to gay marriage, which the Prime Minister is keen to legalise before the next election. Writing in August that the Prime Minister will “embark on a widespread clearing out of the middle and junior ranks to make way for talented members of the 2005 intake”, Nicholas Watt of the Guardian listed Defence Minister Andrew Robathan among the vulnerable ministers. David Maddox of Scotland on Sunday reported in July that were he to leave the Scotland Office as widely rumoured, Michael Moore has expressed a preference for a move to the MoD. This suggests that he will replace Minister of State for the Armed Forces Nick Harvey, the sole Lib Dem minister at the MoD. Andrew Murrison, picked out by Robert Winnett of the Daily Telegraph in August as another Conservative backbencher in contention for promotion, would be a natural fit at the MoD given his military background and interest in the mental and physical health of servicemen and veterans. Back to contents

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Department for Education (DfE) Education Secretary Michael Gove has been linked with a promotion by several commentators. Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post went as far as suggesting that Mr Gove covets the position of Foreign Secretary, “at a time when pressure to find a solution for Syria and Iran look likely to dominate the world agenda”. Writing in July, Sue Cameron of the Daily Telegraph raised the even more unlikely notion of Mr Gove becoming Party Chairman. However, Matt Chorley and Jane Merrick of the Independent on Sunday wrote in August that “sources close to Michael Gove...say he would be reluctant to become chairman”. Alternatively, Rosa Prince of the Daily Telegraph suggested that “A quiet summer and peaceful Games should see [Theresa May] losing her position as Home Secretary,...but Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, is waiting in the wings if not”. Jon Craig of Sky News has made the exact same argument. Warwick Mansell, writing for the Guardian in July, considered whether Mr Gove would be shuffled out of the DfE. He suggested that Mr Gove could be despatched to replace Theresa May at the Home Office, and floated the possibility that Conservative backbencher Elizabeth Truss may be elevated to the Education Secretary’s vacated role. Comprehensive school and Oxford-educated Ms Truss has been a regular speaker and writer on education and a former director of the Reform think tank. She has been an advocate of compulsory education until 18 and STEM subjects, and is critical of “soft” subjects and exam modularity. In a piece in which he selected ten ministerial prospects from the 2010 intake of MPs, Matthew Barrett of ConservativeHome placed Ms Truss at the top of his list, citing her role in establishing the Free Enterprise Group of Conservative MPs and her various education campaigns. Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post listed Truss among his “Women On The Up” in July, describing her as “a powerhouse of ideas” and stating that “I wouldn't be surprised if Truss found herself asked to become a junior education minister”. As Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com noted in July, it is unlikely that Ms Truss, as an inexperienced backbencher, would be promoted directly to Secretary of State. It is more conceivable that she could replace Conservative Schools Minister Nick Gibb, although there has been scant speculation around Mr Gibb’s position. Some conservative commentators, including former MP Paul Goodman, and Matthew D’Ancona of the Daily Telegraph, have countered speculation surrounding Mr Gove by calling for him to stay at the DfE in order to see out his programme of education reforms. Similarly, Simon Walters and Glen Owen of the Daily Mail, stated in August that “Cameron plans to keep all the Conservative Cabinet ‘big beasts’ [including]...Education Secretary Michael Gove...in place”. The prospect of an expanded Department for Education has also been raised in the press. Mr Gove made it clear to a meeting of the Education Select Committee in January 2012 that he wants to “end the division between people who work in nurseries, people who work in primary and secondary, people who work in FE and people who work in higher education.”

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When pressed on this, he commented: “I think it was wrong to split universities and science away from the Department for Education, but one must not make the best the enemy of the good, and at the moment we have a superb team of Ministers in BIS, who are doing a brilliant job, so I have enough to get on with at the moment.” Writing for ConservativeHome in July, backbench Conservative MP and member of the Education Committee Neil Carmichael gave his support for BIS to “shed its residual [higher and further] education functions” and add energy to create a “powerful new department of growth”, incorporating infrastructure, industry and trade”. Ephraim Hardcastle of the Daily Mail reported in February that Mr Gove hoped to bring the responsibility for higher education to the DfE in a possible reshuffle, costing David Willetts his position as Universities and Science Minister. Another possibility is that Mr Willetts, along with his portfolio of responsibilities, would simply be transferred to the DfE, giving Mr Gove greater control over the Government’s higher education policy. Back to contents

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Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) There has been little speculation surrounding DECC - this is perhaps unsurprising as the position of Secretary of State only changed hands in February after Chris Huhne resigned to fight a charge of perverting the course of justice, to be replaced by his Lib Dem colleague Ed Davey. Furthermore, the Department has a more significant legislative workload than many other departments, having published its draft Energy Bill in May, with a revised bill to be introduced in the autumn. In a July article on ConservativeHome, backbench Conservative MP Neil Carmichael argued that DECC should be scrapped, with its energy functions transferred to a repurposed BIS and its climate change work absorbed by Defra. The same reorganisation of DECC and Defra was rumoured by Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post in August. Back to contents

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Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary Caroline Spelman has widely been rumoured to lose her job in the upcoming Cabinet reshuffle. Ms Spelman was forced to apologise to MPs in February 2011, after admitting that the Government had “got it wrong” over plans to sell 258,000 hectares of state-owned woodland. She took personal responsibility for the decision, which came after a huge public outcry over the proposals. In her personal life, Ms Spelman took out a privacy injunction in February this year after a newspaper threatened to publish reports that her rugby-playing teenage son, Jonathan, had taken banned steroids. The injunction was lifted after the High Court ruled that it was “not necessary or proportionate”. If Ms Spelman does lose her job, Cities and Decentralisation Minister Greg Clark has been tipped by James Chapman of the Daily Mail to take over at Defra. In August, Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome pointed to a “bigger role” for Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson, “perhaps at Defra...which would achieve greater ideological balance [in the Cabinet]”. However, contrary to the overwhelming majority of reports, Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph, wrote in the same month that Ms Spelman “is now expected to survive.” Back to contents

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Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) The fallout over the Budget and poor economic data led the Sun’s David Wooding to speculate in July that Chancellor George Osborne and Foreign Secretary William Hague may swap jobs as part of a Government ‘relaunch’. The idea has been supported by Conservative backbencher Nadine Dorries, a perennial thorn in the side of the Conservative leadership. “For the sake of country and Conservative party, most trusted politician in UK, William Hague, needs to become Chancellor”, she tweeted, adding the cautionary hashtag #wonthappen. Elsewhere at the FCO, James Forsyth of the Daily Mail tipped “effective” Lib Dem junior Minister Jeremy Browne in August as among those who may be promoted into the Cabinet. Writing in August, Tim Shipman of the Daily Mail suggested that the Prime Minister will sack “moderate” Europe Minister David Lidington “after being told by Tory right-wingers that he needs a confirmed Eurosceptic in the role”. While Mr Lidington is “well liked” by the Prime Minister, he “infuriated Tory backbenchers earlier this year when he wrote in the French newspaper Le Monde that Britain would never leave the EU. The two Eurosceptic candidates for the role of Europe Minister are current chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, and Government Whip Mark Francois, who acted as Shadow Europe Minister in Opposition. Mr Lidington may replace outgoing Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson, who will become Leader of the Commons, Mr Shipman concludes. Writing in August, Robert Winnett of the Daily Telegraph put forward the name of Michael Fallon, currently Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party, as another contender for Europe Minister. Jo Swinson, Parliamentary Private Secretary to Nick Clegg, is tipped to replace her Lib Dem colleague Michael Moore as Secretary of State for Scotland, but according to David Maddox of Scotland on Sunday, Ms Swinson has expressed a preference for a position at the FCO. If Maddox is correct, this raises the possibility of Ms Swinson replacing her fellow Lib Dem Mr Browne, should he move to another department. In an August feature profiling ten Conservative MPs primed for a promotion, Matthew Barrett of ConservativeHome noted Dominic Raab’s extensive foreign policy experience, suggesting that the FCO would be his “ideal ministerial portfolio”. Minister for Trade and Investment, Lord Green, who sits in both the FCO and BIS, came under sustained pressure in July following revelations of money laundering at HSBC during his tenure as the bank’s chief executive and chairman. However, Leader of the House of Lords Lord Strathclyde rejected calls for his resignation on the grounds that “No minister needs to be accountable to parliament for his previous career, only for what they are doing as ministers”. However, writing in March, Philip Aldrick of the Daily Telegraph suggested that Lord Green is “thought to be favoured by the Chancellor” for the role of Governor of the Bank of England. A decision on Sir Mervyn King’s replacement is “expected by the end of the year”, so if Lord Green is in the running, a September reshuffle would be an ideal time for him to step down from his current Ministerial role. Back to contents

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Department of Health (DoH) Despite widespread rumours over the last few months that Health Secretary Andrew Lansley would be removed from his position in the upcoming reshuffle, sources are now suggesting that he will remain in office. Mr Lansley has faced fierce criticism from Conservative colleagues over his handling of the Health and Social Care Bill, and the British Medical Association called for his resignation early this year. In addition, he came into conflict with the Prime Minister in March, when Mr Cameron overruled Mr Lansley’s objections to Government proposals to introduce a 40p minimum alcohol unit price, sparking further rumours that he could lose his job. Reporting in March this year, Patrick Hennessy wrote in the Daily Telegraph that senior ministers and advisers to the Prime Minister had strongly urged him to hand over the Department to the Liberal Democrats, in return for the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. However, writing in August Mr Hennessy states that Mr Lansley “is now widely expected to stay as Health Secretary”. James Forsyth, writing for the Spectator, gave the same assessment in April following an interview with Lansley in the Times (£) in which he made it clear that he expects to stay in post at the DoH. Indeed, both Sophy Ridge from Sky News and Peter Hoskin from ConservativeHome have pointed out that moving Mr Lansley from his role could be seen as a vote of no confidence in the Coalition’s health reforms, which have yet to be implemented in full. Stephen Pollard of the Guardian wrote in August that “having survived thus far, Lansley will probably remain in post” as “Cameron loathes the idea of expertise acquired doing a job being squandered”. Elsewhere, Health Minister Simon Burns could be on his way out, according to an article by Tim Montgomerie in ConservativeHome. Mr Burns could move to the Whips’ Office, having served as an Opposition Whip between 2005 and 2010. Potential candidates for Mr Burns’ role include Conservative MP Chris Skidmore, one of the 2010 intake tipped for promotion, with ConservativeHome’s Matthew Barrett suggesting that his interest in health and competence as a parliamentarian would make him an ideal addition to the Department. Additionally, Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post reports that Cabinet Officer Mark Harper – previously tasked with carrying out constitutional reform – could be moved into the Department, particularly now that the House of Lords Reform Bill has been abandoned. Back to contents

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Home Office The current Home Secretary, Theresa May, in place since the Government took power, has overseen significant cuts in police numbers, the police response to the riots of summer 2011 and the on-off deportation of radical cleric Abu Qatada, among many other testing episodes. However, given the testing episodes she he has endured so far, she is arguably immune to the ruinous effects of the role, which have cost many of her predecessors their political careers. Writing in July on the prospect of Theresa May losing her position as Home Secretary, Rosa Prince of the Daily Telegraph suggested that “A quiet summer and peaceful Games should see her secure...but Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, is waiting in the wings if not”. Jon Craig of Sky News made the same argument, suggesting that Ms May’s handling of the G4S Olympics security fiasco and industrial action by Border Agency staff had left her “a disastrous Olympics away from the sack in David Cameron’s September reshuffle”. Like Ms Prince, Mr Craig also suggests that if the Home Secretary were to depart, Mr Gove would be her replacement. The same move has been suggested by Warwick Mansell, writing for The Guardian in July. Several other commentators have rejected rumours surrounding Ms May. Robert Winnett of the Daily Telegraph wrote in August that “the focus of the Government shake-up is expected to be on the junior ministerial ranks rather than the Cabinet....the main offices of state including Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary are not expected to change”. The same position has been taken by Simon Walters and Glen Owen of the Daily Mail, Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome, Macer Hall of the Daily Express and Alan Massie of the Scotsman, among others. Matt Chorley and Jane Merrick of the Independent on Sunday, were equally forthright in August, stating that “the Home Secretary, will not be reshuffled but will be told by the Prime Minister to be more visible in the autumn, trumpeting the Tories' law-and-order message”. Policing and Criminal Justice Minister Nick Herbert, who sits in both the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice, has been tipped for promotion by various commentators. Sue Cameron of the Daily Telegraph linked Mr Herbert with Ken Clarke’s job as Justice Secretary in July. Mr Clarke “will only go quietly if he approves of his successor...Favourite is said to be Nick Herbert”. Rafael Behr, Political Editor at the New Statesman, tweeted in July that “Justice dept senior civil servant says working on assumption Nick Herbert will be SoS in autumn”. Back to contents

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Department for International Development (DfID) Tim Shipman of the Daily Mail has also hinted that Baroness Warsi could be moved to DfID to become International Development Secretary, the position described by Paul Waugh of PoliticsHome as her “dream job”. The current International Development Secretary, Andrew Mitchell may be resistant to any move, having reportedly rejected an opportunity for promotion while in Opposition in order to concentrate on his international development brief. Asked by the Guardian in March about the prospect of being moved to another department, Mr Mitchell said “it's for [the Prime Minister] to decide whether he wants to move me or not... It is the most interesting job I've ever had... a job to which I am very, very committed”. Speculating on the potential reorganisation of departments in the reshuffle, David Wooding of the Sun wrote last month that the “Department for International Development could also have its duties returned to the Foreign Office”. Back to contents

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Ministry of Justice (MoJ) Justice Secretary Ken Clarke has been the subject of intense speculation – with Ladbrokes making him their favourite to leave the Cabinet in late August. James Chapman of the Daily Mail wrote in July that “[Work and Pensions Secretary] Iain Duncan Smith is being tipped to take Ken Clarke’s job as Justice Secretary in an autumn reshuffle”. However, Chapman cautions that it would be “unusual” to appoint a non-lawyer as Justice Secretary, and that moving Mr Duncan Smith could be seen as a risk, as the Government’s welfare reform programme is perceived as one of the Coalition’s two “clear success stories”. The same rumour was repeated by Robert Winnett of the Daily Telegraph in August, who wrote that Mr Duncan Smith would get the job in order to “oversee an overhaul of Britain’s prisons”. Like Chapman, Winnett cautions that Mr Duncan Smith’s lack of a legal background may undermine his chances. Sue Cameron of the Daily Telegraph linked Nick Herbert, who held the Justice brief when in Opposition, with Ken Clarke’s job as Justice Secretary in July. As Policing and Criminal Justice Minister, Mr Herbert sits in both the Home Office and the MoJ. Mr Clarke, she writes, “will only go quietly if he approves of his successor, who must not have a bang’em-up approach to criminals...favourite is said to be the police minister, Nick Herbert, who is of the Right but a social liberal”. Rafael Behr, Political Editor of the New Statesman, tweeted in July that “Justice dept senior civil servant says working on assumption Nick Herbert will be SoS [Secretary of State] in autumn”. Tim Shipman of the Daily Mail linked Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson with the position of Justice Secretary in August. However, writing that month, Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph stated that “Mr Clarke is understood to have let the Prime Minister know he is unwilling to be moved” as “he is only halfway through a five-year package of reforms of the justice system”. Mr Clarke is reported to have told friends, that firing him and replacing him with a right-winger would “’retoxify’ the Tory brand”. The Prime Minister was hoping to move Mr Clarke to the position of Leader of the Commons, rather than firing him outright, Hennessy writes. Should Mr Clarke go, Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude, as well Nick Herbert, are among those “jockeying to replace” him, he adds. Following the Daily Telegraph report, Mr Clarke told BBC News that "I have never had any conversations of any kind with the Prime Minister or anyone acting on his behalf about a reshuffle”. Perhaps tellingly, Mr Clarke admitted that he was “totally laid back about a reshuffle and am waiting to see whether or not it affects me”. James Forsyth of the Daily Mail cited the presence of Mr Clarke at a “meeting of the inner Cabinet” in July after Nick Clegg signalled the demise of the House of Lords Reform Bill - to which “Only the biggest beasts in the jungle were asked” - as “a clear indication that there will be no attempt to pension off this 72-year-old in the coming reshuffle”.

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Stating that the Prime Minister will “embark on a widespread clearing out of the middle and junior ranks to make way for talented members of the 2005 intake”, Nicholas Watt of the Guardian listed Justice Minister Jonathan Djanogly and Prisons and Probations Minister Crispin Blunt as among the “vulnerable ministers” in August. One possibility for promotion to a junior ministerial position at the MoJ is Shailesh Vara, currently an Assistant Government Whip. Mr Vara, a solicitor by profession, represented the Government during Oral Questions to the Secretary of State for Justice in May 2012, when both Ken Clarke and Nick Herbert were absent. Following his substitute performance, Operation Black Vote noted that Mr Vara had been the “first Conservative Asian politician to represent the Government at the Dispatch box” and described him as “a highly regarded MP [who] will surely be well placed for a full ministerial role in any forthcoming reshuffle”. Shadow Justice Secretary Sadiq Khan tweeted in May “Substitute Justice Minister Shailesh Vara's performance today making the other ministers – Djanogly and Blunt - very nervous about reshuffle”. Back to contents

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Northern Ireland Office The position of Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson is possibly threatened by his stated opposition to single-sex marriage, to which the Prime Minister is reportedly committed to legalising before the end of the current Parliament. Furthermore, Mr Paterson’s department has been troubled by rebellions, with his first Parliamentary Private Secretary Stewart Jackson resigning after rebelling on the issue of an EU referendum and his second, Conor Burns, resigning after voting against giving the Government’s House of Lords Reform Bill a second reading. Mr Paterson is currently still without a PPS. Despite these difficulties, Mr Paterson has been strongly tipped for promotion in recent weeks. Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph suggested in August that the Prime Minister “is looking to promote another right-winger...Paterson, the Northern Ireland Secretary, although he accepts that his room for manoeuvre may be limited”. Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome pointed in August to a “bigger role” for Paterson, “perhaps at Defra...which would achieve greater ideological balance”. Tim Shipman of the Daily Mail linked Mr Paterson with the position of Justice Secretary in August. In a separate Daily Mail Shipman suggested that the Prime Minister will move “moderate” Europe Minister David Lidington to the role of Northern Ireland Secretary should Mr Paterson receive a “promotion” to become Leader of the Commons. David Wooding of the Sun wrote in July that the Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland Offices could be merged in an effort to make savings. However, as Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post points out, this rumour has been around for years and, as of yet, nothing has come of it. Back to contents

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Offices of the Leader of the Commons and Lords Both the Leader of the Commons, Sir George Young, and the Leader of the Lords, Lord Strathclyde, have been subject to reshuffle speculation. Paul Waugh of PoliticsHome wrote in July that “the PM may want to use the mini-PMQs of Business Questions every Thursday to bring in new talent”, but notes that “Sir George Young is well liked by all and could yet survive”. Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome gave a similar assessment in August, writing that he “has been a brilliant Leader of the House [but] may simply fall victim to Cameron's need to have room to promote new talent”. Conservative commentator Iain Dale suggests that Health Secretary Andrew Lansley is expected to remain in the Cabinet, either in his current position, or as Leader of the House of Commons. Such a move has an air of revenge about it, given that Sir George Young was reported in February 2012 to be one of three senior ministers calling for Lansley’s Health and Social Care Bill to be dropped. Brendan Carlin of the Daily Mail suggested in July that Sir George will be replaced by Ken Clarke if he loses his position as Justice Secretary. However, writing in August, Patrick Hennessy of the Daily Telegraph stated that “Mr Clarke is understood to have let the Prime Minister know he is unwilling to be moved” as “he is only halfway through a five-year package of reforms of the justice system”. Andrew Pierce, writing in the Daily Mail in early August, speculated that the Prime Minister is “planning to replace boarding school-educated hereditary peer Lord Strathclyde as Leader of the House of Lords” in order to make “a significant move to try to shed his image as a PM who is surrounded by Old Etonian cronies and other toffs”. Pierce reports that “grammar school- educated former Tory leader Michael Howard” will be his replacement. Back to contents

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Scotland Office David Maddox of Scotland on Sunday reported in July that Jo Swinson, Parliamentary Private Secretary to Nick Clegg, is set to replace her Lib Dem colleague Michael Moore as Secretary of State for Scotland. Ms Swinson has expressed a preference for a position at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, but the Lib Dems are reportedly keen “to end the embarrassment of having no women from their party in the Cabinet”. The same rumour was repeated by the Sun, the Daily Express, PoliticsHome and conservative commentator Iain Dale later that same month. The Scotland on Sunday report states that Mr Moore is likely move to a junior role at the Ministry of Defence, which suggests that he will replace Armed Forces Minister Nick Harvey, the sole Lib Dem minister at the MoD. However, Simon Walters and Glen Owen of the Daily Mail wrote in August that Mr Moore was “likely to stay put”, along with the other three Lib Dem Cabinet Ministers. David Wooding of the Sun wrote in July that the Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland Offices could be merged in an effort to make savings. However, the Huffington Post points out that this rumour has been around for years and, as of yet, hasn’t happened. Writing in the Scotsman in August, Allan Massie said it was “desirable” that Chancellor George Osborne stopped chairing the Cabinet’s Scotland Committee and stepped aside to allow a Scot to hold the post. The Committee, which is responsible for negotiations with the Scottish Government about the terms and date of the independence referendum, should instead be led by a Scot or an MP who represents a Scottish constituency such as Scottish Secretary Michael Moore or Chief Secretary of the Treasury Danny Alexander, he said. Back to contents

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Department for Transport (DfT) In July, Mail on Sunday columnist James Forsyth reported that Transport Secretary Justine Greening risked being demoted after refusing to accept the case for a third runway at Heathrow. Mr Forsyth said any such move would represent “quite a turnaround” for Ms Greening, who has been in the job for under a year and was once seen as “the leadership’s poster girl”. A number of senior figures across Government and backbench Conservative MPs believe that expanding Heathrow’s capacity is crucial to secure London’s status as a business-hub in the long term, and have taken a dim view of Ms Greening’s apparent desire to put the priorities of her constituents before the national interest. Residents of her seat in Putney, south-west London, have long opposed a third runway. Indeed, the Daily Telegraph’s Rosa Prince interpreted the decision to delay a consultation on London’s airport capacity until the autumn as an opportunity for David Cameron to remove Greening, “one of the main obstacles to a third runway”. Despite this, Ms Prince noted, the Prime Minister “continues to respect her talents and intelligence”. Robert Winnett of the Daily Telegraph suggested in August that Ms Greening may be replaced by Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt, giving Mr Hunt “a chance to continue rebuilding his reputation after a successful Olympic Games”. This would also lay the foundations for “a major shift in aviation policy” and a move towards building a third runway at Heathrow, he adds. Writing in August, Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome suggested that Greening was “a good outside bet for Party Chairman but my understanding is that she's keen to finish the work she's only just begun at Transport”. Should Ms Greening go, conservative commentator Iain Dale predicts that Transport Minister Theresa Villiers could take over at the DfT, although her position on Heathrow is equally forthright. Paul Goodman of ConservativeHome stated his belief in May that Ms Villiers, overlooked for a Cabinet role before, “will make it to Cabinet this time round”. Ms Villiers has also been touted as a potential successor to Justice Secretary Ken Clarke due to her legal background. Mr Dale also recommends Employment Minister Chris Grayling as another candidate for Transport Secretary, as he shadowed the brief for a period in Opposition. Back to contents

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Wales Office Secretary of State for Wales Cheryl Gillan, has been strongly rumoured to lose her job in the reshuffle. Prior to the 2010 general election Ms Gillan was vocal in her opposition to the proposed High Speed 2 rail network, which will pass through her Buckinghamshire constituency. Indeed, Ms Gillan told the Sunday Times in June 2011 that “If the proposals go through as they are, I cannot vote for them”, acknowledging that “If that happens the Prime Minister must decide whether he wants me or not”. However, Ms Gillan's opposition to the scheme reportedly softened after it was announced that the planned route would be redrawn, going under Amersham (in her constituency) via a tunnel rather than being above ground within a cutting, as had originally been proposed. Ms Gillan's position was further threatened in January 2011 when it was revealed that she decided to sell her home in Amersham, which lies around 500 yards from the proposed route, just weeks before the Government signalled its intention to go ahead with HS2. Any attempt to replace Ms Gillan is complicated by the fact that none of the eight Conservative MPs who represent Welsh constituencies are women. The current Minister for Disabled People, Maria Miller, one of the middle ranking ministers tipped by the Daily Mail for promotion in April 2012, has been linked with the role. Like Ms Gillan, she does not represent a Welsh seat, but was brought up in Wales. Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome described Ms Gillan as “almost certain for the chop” in August, putting forward the name of Stephen Crabb, an Assistant Government Whip who represents a Welsh constituency, as a possible replacement. Responding to Montgomerie’s claims, the Conservatives’ Shadow Education Minister in the Welsh Assembly, Angela Burns, stated that she was “quite sure Cheryl will be retained”, as she is “well-regarded by David Cameron and I’m sure he would not want to lose her intellectual abilities around the Cabinet table”. Conservative MP and Chair of the Welsh Affairs Committee David Davies, told the Western Mail newspaper in August that if Mrs Gillan was to go, she should be replaced by an MP who represents a Welsh seat. Mr Davies singled out the aforementioned Mr Crabb and Clwyd West MP and current Wales Office Minister David Jones as his two picks for promotion. David Wooding of the Sun wrote in July that the Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland Offices could be merged in an effort to make savings. However, the Huffington Post points out that this rumour has been around for years and, as of yet, hasn’t happened. Back to contents

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HM Treasury Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne faced a bout of speculation surrounding his future in early August. Much of Mr Osborne’s troubles can be linked to the 2012 Budget, later dubbed an “omnishambles” by Ed Miliband during Prime Minister’s Questions. Public criticism of measures included in the Budget led to widely publicised U-turns on tax relief for charitable donations, the so-called “pasty tax” and the “caravan tax”. In July, Liberal Democrat peer Lord Oakeshott called for Business Secretary Vince Cable to take charge at the Treasury, labelling Mr Osborne a “work experience chancellor.” Dr Cable responded to the comments by saying he would make “a good chancellor.” Others echoed Lord Oakeshott’s sentiments and called for Mr Osborne to go. David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, wrote in the New Statesman that the unexpected shrink in Britain’s GDP between April and June was “the nail in the coffin of the Chancellor’s credibility”. Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls said that if the figures “didn’t make the Chancellor wake up and change course,” then he did not know what would. The Chancellor wrongly linked Mr Balls to the Barclays-Libor rigging affair in July, and claimed that Labour officials had been “clearly involved” in understating the rate. At the time, Mr Balls responded by demanding Mr Osborne retract his accusations and said the allegations were “absolutely false.” According to Chris Wimpress of the Huffington Post, there has been speculation that Foreign Secretary William Hague or Defence Secretary Philip Hammond could be moved into Number 11 to replace Mr Osborne. However, in an interview with Sky News on 3 August the Prime Minister confirmed that Mr Osborne will remain in his post and can still expect to be Chancellor at the time of the 2015 general election. Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Alan Cochrane pointed out that if the Prime Minister were to move Mr Osborne from the Treasury, the move would be a “sure sign that everything [Osborne and Cameron] have said about the economy since they were elected has been utter rubbish”. Mr Cameron has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks to strip the Chancellor of his party strategy role so that he can focus on his work at the Treasury. Most prominent among those calling for the reduction in the Chancellor’s workload was former Conservative chancellor Lord Lawson, who told Radio 4’s Westminster Hour that while Mr Osborne “has on the whole a pretty good political antennae...I do think it might be sensible to give up the formal role and focus exclusively on his job as Chancellor”. Writing in late August, Tim Shipman of the Daily Mail stated that “sources in Number Ten and the Treasury have told the [paper] that the Chancellor will not lead David Cameron’s re-election efforts”. Australian strategist Lynton Crosby, who “masterminded” the Conservatives’ 2005 general election campaign, in addition to Boris Johnson’s 2008 and 2012 London Mayoral campaigns, will be recruited as his replacement, he adds.

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Having “survived the flack over the pasty tax”, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury David Gauke’s “reputation as a safe pair of hands led some to speculate that he would be a major beneficiary of the reshuffle”, Rosa Prince of the Daily Telegraph wrote in July. However, Mr Gauke’s chances may have been undermined when he attracted criticism for saying that paying tradesmen in cash was “morally wrong”, Prince concludes. Economic Secretary to the Treasury Chloe Smith came under sustained criticism after a series of television interviews in which she was questioned on the Chancellor’s announcement that he would defer a 3p rise in fuel duty until January 2013. Ms Smith was reportedly given her role at the Treasury because the Prime Minister wrongly thought that she was a chartered accountant (Ms Smith actually worked as a management consultant for an accountancy firm). However, since she was only promoted to her position in the October 2011 “mini-reshuffle” following the departure of Liam Fox from the Government, it is perhaps unlikely that she will lose her job in September. Political Editor of the Sunday Times Isabel Oakeshott tweeted in August that the Prime Minister “feels bruised after (over?) promoting Chloe Smith” and subsequently “won't be promoting women just to make up the numbers”. Commercial Secretary to the Treasury Lord Sassoon was tipped by Philip Aldrick of the Daily Telegraph in March to become the next Governor of the Bank of England. A decision on Sir Mervyn King’s replacement is “expected by the end of the year”, so if Lord Sassoon is in the running, a September reshuffle would an ideal time for him to step down from his current ministerial role. Back to contents

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The Whips’ Office Chief Whip Patrick McLoughlin is “widely expected to be replaced... because leading Cameroons are still fuming at the scale of rebellions on Europe and Lords reform” writes Alistair Thompson on ConservativeHome. Patrick O’Flynn of the Daily Express also tipped Mr McLoughlin for the sack in April 2012. The Guardian’s Stephen Pollard suggested in August that Mr McLoughlin will probably “disappear” as he has “failed in the basic task of preventing rebellions,” after 91 Conservative MPs rebelled over the House of Lords Reform Bill. Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome tipped backbencher Lee Scott for the Whip’s Office in August. Back to contents

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Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) Rumours have circulated that Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith could take over from Ken Clarke as Justice Secretary. Writing in the Daily Mail, James Chapman has tipped has tipped Mr Clarke to lose his role, after the Justice Secretary received harsh criticism from Conservative colleagues who feel that he has failed to promote the traditional Conservative hard-line stance on law and order and is out of touch with his party’s views on the European Union. When considering Mr Duncan Smith’s suitability for the position, senior Conservative MPs have pointed to his strong commitment to social justice and belief in the need to reform the criminal justice system. However, Mr Chapman’s article also raises doubts about the likelihood that Mr Duncan Smith would welcome the new role, suggesting that he would be reluctant to abandon his ongoing programme of welfare reforms. Equally, the Guardian, the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail have reported that Mr Clarke is unwilling to give up his role, whilst Robert Winnett writing in the Telegraph also highlights that Mr Duncan Smith does not have an academic or professional background in law, which he argues could “prove problematic”. Nonetheless, the article goes on to note that Housing Minister Grant Shapps and Employment Minister Chris Grayling have both been put forward as contenders for the role of Work and Pensions Secretary, if Mr Duncan Smith is moved to the Ministry of Justice. Having previously acted as Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, as well as taking on other senior roles within the Shadow Cabinet, Mr Grayling is an obvious candidate for the role. Indeed, the Employment Minister has been strongly touted for promotion and looks likely to take up a position within the Cabinet even if Mr Duncan Smith remains in place. Writing for ConservativeHome in May, former Conservative MP Paul Goodman placed Mr Grayling as one of his top three candidates for promotion to the Cabinet, arguing that “he is very experienced on TV and radio and gets his message out”. Additionally, Mr Grayling could see himself promoted to the position of Conservative Party Chairman, as part of an attempt by Prime Minister David Cameron to satisfy the right-wing of the party after ongoing tensions over Europe and House of Lords Reform, argues Patrick Hennessy in the Daily Telegraph. Simon Walters, writing in the Daily Mail in August, put forward the suggestion that Mr Grayling could even take over from Ken Clarke as Justice Secretary, leaving Mr Duncan Smith to continue his role as Work and Pensions Secretary. Elsewhere in the Department, Disabilities Minister Maria Miller is widely expected to be promoted to the Welsh Office with Patrick Hennessy in the Daily Telegraph arguing that she has won praise from MPs over her “polite, fair and competent” handling of the Remploy factory closures. Back to contents