Mindanao and the Bangsamoro: Prospects for Peace

I. Historical Foundations of the Bangsamoro Struggle

• Bangsamoro ("the Moro People")

• 13-ethnolinguistic Muslim tribes in the Philippines

• Comprising about 5% of the Philippine population and around 20% of the population in Mindanao.

WHO ARE THE MUSLIMS IN THE PHILIPPINES?

consist of 13 ethno-linguistic groups distributed according to their respective

geographical locations. The first three are the largest groups.

Maranao - Lanao del Sur Maguindanao - Maguindanao Province and

Cotabato Tausug - Sulu Sama Yakan Sangil Palawani Molbog

The number of Balik-Islam (reverts to Islam) is a surging phenomenon in the Phiilippines.

•Kolibugan•Jama Mapun•Iranun•Ka’agan•Badjao

I. Historical Foundations

Were the Muslims always a minority in Mindanao?

SECTOR 1918 % 1970 % 1980 % 2000 %

Christians 159,132 22% 6.1 million 75% 7.1 million 65% 72%

Muslims 358,968 49 1.5 million 20 2.5 million 23 20

Lumads 205,555 29 1.2 million 5 1.2 million 12 N/A

TOTAL 723,625 100% 8.1 million 100% 10.9 million 100% ---

Official Data as quoted from Tan, S. K., 1995, NCSO 2000 census

Were the Muslims always poor?

PROVINCE 1970 % Rank 1990 %

Rank

Lanao del Norte 19.7 27 19.3 21

Sulu 15.5 37 11.0 52

Lanao del Sur 19.6 28 11.2 53

Bataan 15.4 38 31.1 11

Pampanga 13.3 39 27.5 15

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH PIPED WATER, 1970/1990

1970 1990PROVINCE % Rank % Rank

Zamboanga del Sur

10 28 40.2 37

Sulu 6.7 38 9.4 73

Ilocos Sur 4.5 50 61.8 13

Bukidnon 4.4 51 31.5 48

Lanao del Sur 3.7 58 34.9 43

Camiguin 3.1 59 26.4 57

Factors that led to decline

Elements of the Radicalization of the Bangsamoro

Simple & functional literacy rate

• 88% can read and write• 75% are functionally

literate

Simple Literacy Rate

Functional Literacy Rate

Mindanao

75.3675.36

88.1288.12

Visayas

80.580.5

91.9791.97

95.1495.14

Luzon

85.9985.99

Sources: MCW & NCRFW

Life Expectancy, 2000

66.765.5 63

Luzon

Visayas Mindanao

Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of additional years a person can expect to live, based on the age-additional years a person can expect to live, based on the age-

specific death rates for a given year.specific death rates for a given year.

Mindanao has the shortest life expectancyMindanao has the shortest life expectancy

Child Labor as a way of dealing with poverty in Mindanao7 out of 10 Mindanao households have 7 out of 10 Mindanao households have

working children within 5-17 years old, working children within 5-17 years old, surpassing the national average of 6 surpassing the national average of 6 out of 10. (out of 10. (Oct 2001)Oct 2001)

The phenomenon of The phenomenon of child labor and child child labor and child prostitution points to prostitution points to the problem of extreme the problem of extreme povertypoverty

Despite laws against Despite laws against child labor, many child labor, many children have children have remained in the labor remained in the labor market.market.

Sources: MCW & NCRFW

II. Liberation Movements

II. Liberation Movements

II. The MNLF Peace Track 1976 Tripoli Agreement under Marcos regime: autonomy in lieu of

independence

Congress passed Republic Act No. 6734, (Organic Act) under the Aquino administration

Plebiscite held on August 1, 1989 in 13 provinces: only Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi joined ARMM

Final Peace Agreement between GRP and MNLF signed on September 2, 1996 under the Ramos administration

RA9054 passed amending RA 6734

Plebiscite in August 2001: Basilan and Marawi City joined ARMM

II. STATUS: MNLF Peace Track

• Problematic implementation of 1996 FPA.

• MNLF Chair Misuari was arrested 2001 on charges of rebellion. Allowed to post bail after 7 years of incarceration.

• MNLF troops loyal to Misuari went back to the hills

• Tripartite review of implementation ongoing

Failing Autonomy

•The 1996 Peace Agreement has failed to deliver the “peace dividends”.

•Instead of the promised autonomy, there is increased and heavy dependence of ARMM on the National Government

2005 Philippine Human Development Report

Human Development Index in ARMM: Lowest 10 provinces

1997   2000   2003  

Province HDI Province HDI Province HDI

Sulu0.33

6 Sulu0.35

1 Sulu 0.31Lanao del Sur

0.415 Tawi-Tawi

0.390 Maguindanao 0.36

Maguindanao

0.416 Basilan

0.425 Tawi-Tawi 0.36

Tawi-Tawi0.43

0Maguindanao

0.461 Basilan 0.41

Basilan0.43

9 Ifugao 0.461 Masbate 0.44

Ifugao 0.452Lanao del Sur

0.464

Zamboanga del Norte 0.45

Lanao del Norte 0.470

Agusan del Sur 0.482 Sarangani 0.45

Agusan del Sur 0.482 Samar 0.511 Western Samar 0.47

Samar 0.493Lanao del Norte 0.512 Eastern Samar 0.47

Sarangani 0.494 Sarangani 0.516 Lanao del Sur 0.48

2005 Philippine Human Development Report

Poverty Incidence in ARMMREGION 1997 2000 2003

% Rank % Rank % Rank

NCR 8.50 15 11.50 15 7.30 15

5-Bicol 57.00 2 61.90 2 47.90 4

8-Eastern Visayas 48.50 6 51.10 6 43.40 6

9-Western Mindanao 45.50 7 53.00 7 49.40 2

10-Northern Mindanao 52.70 4 52.20 4 44.30 5

12-Central Mindanao 55.80 3 58.10 3 38.40 7

CARAGA --- --- ---

CAR 50.10 5 43.80 5 31.20 9

ARMM 62.50 1 71.30 1 53.10 1

Agreement on cessation of hostilities

STATUS: GRP-MILF Peace Track

CHALLENGESLack of information about the

conflictContinuing armed conflict

High Iliteracy rates and unemploymentAbject PovertyMilitarization

Discrimination

Poor delivery of government basic social service

Understanding the MOA-AD

• Basic principle: There is no alternative solution to end the 35-year old Mindanao conflict but to address the very root of the Bangsamoro problem through a politically-negotiated settlement.

• The MOA-AD is a document that is the product of more than 4 years of negotiations between the government and the MILF.

• The prospective BJE would have fulfilled the Bangsamoro people’s struggle for self determination – begun by the MNLF and pushed to completion by the MILF.

III. The Road Back to Peace

• CEASEFIRE. Military strategies CANNOT resolve the Mindanao conflict. UN, EU, OIC, ASEAN assistance to bring parties back to negotiating table.

• Peace process must include all stakeholders, including religious leaders like the Ulama as well as civil society. This will give the process the legitimacy and the critical political constituency it needs to succeed.

The Road Back to Peace

Government must resolve, not just manage, the Mindanao conflict. It should not allow the peace process to be hijacked by political posturing and opportunism.

All parties must show sincerity and allow the peace negotiations to proceed.

The Road Back to Peace

• Genuine autonomy and lasting peace cannot be attained unless the central government divests itself of substantial powers and invest the same to local communities and allow them to chart their own destiny.

• Federalism as an option after the 2010 elections

SHUKRAN!