millennials and socialism: australian youth are lurching ... · millennials are turning 38 in 2018,...
TRANSCRIPT
No. 7 • June 2018
Tom Switzer Charles Jacobs
Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching to the left
POLICY Paper 7
Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching
to the left
Tom Switzer Charles Jacobs
ContentsMillennials and socialism .........................................................................................1
Attitudes towards socialism .....................................................................................2
Favourability towards Socialism .......................................................................2
Views on capitalism and government intervention ..............................................2
Aflow-oneffect .............................................................................................3
International comparisons ......................................................................................5
Youthshiftingtotheleft .........................................................................................7
Amatterofignorance ............................................................................................9
Conclusion .........................................................................................................11
Appendix A .........................................................................................................12
Endnotes ............................................................................................................14
1
ThefalloftheBerlinWallon9November1989wasa prescient moment in global history. Although the SovietUnionwouldnotofficiallycollapseforanothertwoyears,theimagesofBerlinerstearingdownthisphysicalandideologicalbarrierwereemblematicoftheEurope’sfailedexperimentwithsocialism.Theironcurtainthathadenvelopedmostofthecontinent’seast had not brought equality and a classless society. Norhaditbroughtthepromisedproductivityandefficiencythatwould so its supporters claimed see socialism replace capitalism as the primary means ofglobaleconomicorder.
Rather,socialismhadleftawarrenofpoverty,oppressionandfailedstatesinitswake.Astarkwarning to all those who lived through it to never repeatthemistakesofanideologythat,despiteitsromanticised ideals, led to as many deaths as both world wars combined.1
Whilethelessonsofthissocialistdisasterareentrenchedinthemindsofageneration,thememoryoftheSovietUnionisbeginningtofade.Meanwhile,ourunderstandingofthecommunistregimeinChinaremainslimited.ThereislessawarenessofmanyofAsia’s 20thcenturyconflicts,andtherolesocialismhasplayedinthem.AsaresultofoureconomiclinkswithChina,wearealsolesslikelytocondemntheirideology as we once would have denounced the Soviet Union.
Consequently,anever-growinggroupofvotershavenevertrulyseentheeffectsofsocialism.Millennials thosebornbetween1980and1996 mostly came to theirpoliticalawarenessaftersocialism’slongreignofterror.TheoldestwereagedjustninewhentheBerlinwallfell.
Bythelate90s,whenMillennialsbegantovote,prosperity was on the rise. Australia was eight years intoourrecord-breaking27-yearstreakofeconomicgrowth.2 The United States was experiencing a similar economic boom. Meanwhile, Europeans were bolstered bythenewfoundoptimismofthepost-Sovietera.
During the past decade, Millennials have acquired a greaterinfluenceinsociety.Since2014,theentiregenerationhasbeenabletovote.In2016theymadeupover30%oftheAustralianelectorate.3 The oldest Millennialsareturning38in2018,andarequicklymovingintomoreinfluentialpositionsinpolitics,businessandthemedia.By2020theywillmakeup35%oftheworld’sworkforce.4
This being the case, it is important to understand howMillennialsthink,andwhatvaluesdrivethem.Aspartofthisprocess,theCentreforIndependentStudies commissioned polling agency YouGov Galaxy tosampletheopinionsof1003AustralianMillennialsontheirviewsofsocialismanditsplaceinsociety.Thefollowingpaperoutlinesourfindings,looksatsimilaranalysesinotherWesterncountries,andidentifiessome clear overarching political trends that are evolvingasMillennialsbecomeincreasinglyinfluential.
Millennials and socialism
2
ThepollingundertakenhighlightsAustralianMillennials’viewsofsocialismandhowtheseshapetheir attitudes towards the economy, capitalism and theroleofgovernmentinsociety.Afull,tabulatedbreakdownofresponsestoeachquestionbyallvariables is available in Appendix A.
Favourability towards Socialism
Question1assessedaskedAustralianMillennialstorespond based on their ‘Overall view of socialism’. Participantswereaskedtoratetheirviewsbasedonthree major categories:
• Favourable view of socialism (Sub categories: Mostlyfavourable;Somewhatfavourable)
• Unfavourable view of socialism (Sub categories: Mostlyunfavourable;Somewhatunfavourable)
• Don’t know
Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbeseenin Figure 1 below.
Themostnotablefindingherewasthat,overall,58%ofAustralianMillennialspolledviewsocialismfavourably.Lessthanafifth(18%)viewtheideologyunfavourably.Interestingly,thisfigurewascommonacrosstherangeofvariablesmeasuredinthesurvey,withlittlesignificantdifferencebetweencomparablegroups.
Thelargestvariationwasuniversity-educatedMillennials(63%favourableviewofsocialism)andthosewithTAFE/Technicalqualifications(52%favourable).GiventhatMillennialsarefarmorelikelytobeexposedtosocialismatuniversity,thiscouldinpartbeduetoTAFE/TechnicalqualifiedMillennials’lackofawarenessoftheideologyandits
underpinnings.Indeed,30%ofbothTAFEqualifiedrespondentsandthosewithoutatertiaryqualificationreportedthattheydidn’tknowwhattheirviewonsocialism was.
Thesefindingsareproblematicfortworeasons.Firstly, it is a damning indictment on our school systemthatnearlyathirdofnon-universityeducatedstudentshavelimitedtonounderstandingofsocialismas an ideology. In most constituencies, history is a non-compulsorysubjectinlateryearsofhighschoolandthusstudentsarenoteducatedonthefailedimplementationsofsocialismthroughoutthe20th century.
Secondly,thefactthatmoreuniversity-educatedrespondentsdemonstratedanawarenessofsocialismshould lead to a higher proportion understanding its practicalfailings.However,Millennialgraduatesviewedsocialismmorefavourablythananyothergroup.This raises questions about the lens through which socialism is being portrayed in universities. In recent years, critics have suggested that universities are lurchingfurthertotheleft.5Althoughmoreevidence-basedresearchisneeded,thepoll’sfindingsindicatethat the trends are indeed endurable, and hint at this being an issue.
Views on capitalism and government intervention
It is important not to assume that Millennials’ favourableviewsonsocialismdirectlycorrelatewiththebeliefthattheideologyisultimatelythebestapproachformanagingAustralia.Whilesomeonemayfindtheoverarchingvaluesandprinciplesofanideology endearing, they may not necessarily believe ittobethemostrationalandeffectiveapproach.
Attitudes towards socialism
Figure 1: Australian Millennials - Overall view of socialism
Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 1.
3
Tounderstandhowtheirviewsfitcomparatively,AustralianMillennialswereaskedwhether‘Capitalism has failed and government should exercise more control of the economy’. They were given three possibleanswers:Agree;Disagree;Don’tknow.Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbeseenin Figure 2 below.
WhatisimmediatelystrikingisthesimilaritybetweenFigure1andFigure2.Overall,59%ofAustralianMillennialsbelievethatcapitalismhasfailedandthatthe government must play a greater role in regulating theeconomy.Onceagain,thetrendisfairlyconsistentacross comparable groups. The biggest divergence is betweenurbanandregionalMillennials.Nearlytwo-thirds(64%)ofrespondentsinregionalareasbelievedthatcapitalismhasfailed.
Conversely,56%percentofurbanMillennialsheldthisopinion.Itislikelythatthelossofindustries
and jobs in regional areas contributes to this difference.Centralisationandtheoffshoringofmostmanufacturinghasdisproportionatelyimpactedthe regions compared to major cities.6 Once again, university-educatedMillennialsweremuchmorelikelytoexpressafirmopiniononthequestion,with33%disagreeingthatcapitalismhadfailedand57%agreeing.Only11%saidtheydidn’tknow.
A flow-on effect
Dissatisfactionwithcapitalism,takentogetherwithbenign attitudes towards socialism, has meant that many Millennials hold pessimistic views about the currenteconomicoutlook.Respondentswereaskedwhether ‘Ordinary workers are worse off today than they were 40 years ago’. They were given threepossibleanswers:Agree;Disagree;Don’tknow.Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbeseenin Figure 3 below.
Figure 2: Australian Millennials - Capitalism has failed and the government should exercise more economic control
Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 4.
Figure 3: Australian Millennials - Workers are worse off now than 40 years ago
Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 2
4
Herethetrendagainremainsconsistent,withnearlytwo-thirdsofeachgroupingagreeingthatworkersareworseoff.Thosewithnotertiaryqualificationwerethemostlikelytoagree,with67%believingworkerswereworseoff.Thelargestgroupdisagreeingwiththe statement were those with a university degree. Thedifferencebetweenthesetwogroupsmaybeareflectionofthegrowing‘braineconomy’,withgraduatequalificationsincreasinglyviewedmorefavourablybyemployers.
Notably,69%ofrespondentsfromNewSouthWalesagreedthatthesituationforworkershaddeclined;
more than any other state polled. This is despite the factthat,fornineconsecutivequarters,theNSWeconomyhasbeenthebestperformingofanystatein Australia.7InWesternAustralia,53%ofMillennialsbelievedthatworkerswereworseoff,with43%disagreeingwiththisstatement.AfullbreakdownofstateresponsesforeachquestioncanbefoundinAppendix A.
Inreality,allworkers,andindeedallAustralians,aresubstantiallybetteroffthan40yearsago.Disposablepersonal income and Australian consumer spending bothhitall-timehighsinthefourthquarterof2017.8
Figure 4: Australian Millennials - Allowing for inflation, Australia spends less on education and health than we did 10 years ago
Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 3
Figure 5: Australia - Views on government spending poll (all ages)
Source: Parliament of Australia & ABC (See Endnotes for full details)
5
The minimum wage has been on the rise, and in thefourthquarterof2017weeklyincomereachedanhistoricalhighof$1192thiswas$254(2017dollars)morethaninthefourthquarterof1977.
Moreover,fromthemid-1980stoabout2012,Australia experienced the biggest national income boomsincethegoldrushes;andtheeconomyispresently in its 27thconsecutiveyearofeconomicgrowth,surpassingtheNetherlandsforthegoldmedalofthelongestexpansioninthemodernera.
And yet, Millennials believe the government should betakingamoredirectapproach.AsFigure2shows,59%ofpollrespondentsbelievethegovernmentshould exercise more control over the economy. Additionally,Millennialsarefrustratedwithaperceivedlackofgovernmentspendingonsocialservices.Pollrespondentswereaskedwhether,‘After allowing for inflation, Australia spends less on education and health than we did ten years ago.’ They were giventhreepossibleanswers:Agree;Disagree;Don’tknow.Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbe seen in Figure 4 below.
Whiletheresultswerelessresoundingthanforotherquestions,amajorityofrespondentsineverymajorvariableagreedwiththisstatement.Overall,56%ofAustralianMillennialsbelievedthatlessisspenton these major social services, while 30% did not. Thosefromregionalareas(61%)andthosewithnotertiaryqualifications(60%)werethemostlikelytobeofthisopinion.Thismaybeasymptomofthese
groupsfeeling‘leftout’bythesystem.Urbananduniversityeducatedrespondentsweretheleastlikelyto disagree.
Statistically, these assumptions are simply wrong. Government expenditure has grown by 30% in realtermsinthepastdecade.In2007/08,totalgovernmentfundingforhealthcarewas$87billion(2016/17dollars).9 It had increased to more than $115billioninrealtermsby2015-16.10 Education spending has also increased substantially.11
However,theabovesentimentshavecontributedtoamassiveriseinvotersupportforincreasedgovernmentspending.SinceMillennialswerefirstabletovotein1998,thepercentageofvotersfavouringmore spending on social services has increased dramatically(SeeFigure5).Whileotherfactorsmayalsoberesponsibleforthistrend,thereissignificantcorrelationbetweenthegrowingnumberofMillennialsin the overall voter base and the desire to see the government do more.
In 2004, opinion reached a turning point, with more voters(38%)favouringspendingonsocialservicesthanadecreaseintax(35%)forthefirsttimesincepollingbeganin1984.Inthefollowingyears,thishascontinuedtogrow.In2016,Millennialsmadeupnearlyathirdoftheelectorate(31%),with55%ofvotersfavouringanincreaseingovernmentspendingsuggestingthattheyarehavingamajorinfluenceon opinions.
International comparisons
AcomparisonwithotherWesterncountriesshowsthat,similarlytoAustralia,Millennialsprefersocialismtocapitalism.In2016,YouGovundertookpollssimilarto our Australian study in both the United Kingdom and United States. The results showed a clear differentialbetweenattitudestothesetwoideologies.Notably,however,thetrendsarenotasextremeasthoseidentifiedintheCIS/YouGovGalaxyAustraliapoll.
IntheUnitedStates,43%ofrespondentsaged18-29viewedsocialismfavourably,with26%viewingitunfavourably.Capitalismwasviewedwithmoredisdain.MorethanathirdofAmericanyouth(36%)viewedcapitalismunfavourably.Alittlemorethan30%vieweditfavourably.ThiswassignificantlydifferenttotheoverallAmericanpopulation,whoviewedcapitalismmuchmorefavourablyandviewedsocialismwithsignificantscepticism.
Fallingin2016,theYouGovpollwasalsoableto gauge the reaction to Democratic primary
candidateBernieSanders’descriptionofhimselfasa“democraticsocialist.”OfAmericansaged18-29,19%saidthisstatementwouldmakethemmorelikelytovoteforhim,with11%sayingitmadethemlesslikely.Thiswastheinverseoftheoverallpopulation,12%sayingthisstatementmadevotingforhimmorelikely,and18%sayingitmadethislesslikely.
IntheUnitedKingdom,socialismwassignificantlymorepopularacrossallagegroups.The2016YouGovPollfoundthatBritishpeopleover60weretheonlyagegrouptoviewtheideologyunfavourably.Amongthoseaged18-24,38%ofrespondentsviewedsocialismfavourably,with20%viewingitunfavourably.Capitalismwassignificantlymoreunpopular.Only25%oftheyouthagebracketvieweditfavourably,whilst40%vieweditunfavourably.Meanwhile,39%ofallBritspolledviewedcapitalismunfavourably.
In similar circumstances to the United States, the UnitedKingdomhasalsowitnessedtheriseofamajor
6
politicalfigurewhoidentifiesassocialist.Speakingatthe2017LabourPartyConferenceinBrighton,leader Jeremy Corbyn argued that the Thatcher era“neoliberal”economicmodelwasbroken,andpromisedtotransform“thesystem”ofwealthre-distributioninGreatBritain.12HeispromisingtonationalisemanyofBritain’skeyindustries,includingwater, electricity, gas and railways. Meanwhile, Labour’streasuryspokesmanJohnMcDonnellhasunashamedlyquotedfromMao’s‘LittleRedBook’inparliament.
AlthoughCorbyn’sagendaisunthinkabletosupportersofthefreemarket,hismessagehasappealedtoyoungervoters,manyofwhomfeelleftoutinacountry that is seen as increasingly unequal.13 A 2015 YouGovpollofLabourselectoratemembersrevealedthat64%ofrespondentsaged18-24,and67%ofthoseaged25-39the‘Millennial’generation preferredJeremyCorbynasLabourleader.14 Only 51% ofLabourmembersinthe60+bracketfavouredhim.
Figure 6: United States - Overall view of socialism and capitalism
Source: 2016 YouGov Poll UK attitudes to socialism and capitalism (See Endnotes for full details)
Source: 2016 YouGov Poll US attitudes to socialism and capitalism (See Endnotes for full details)
Figure 7: United Kingdom - View of socialism and capitalism
7
Youth shifting to the leftManywillbefamiliarwiththeoldadage:“Ifyou’renotasocialistattheageof20youhavenoheart.Ifyou’renotaconservativeattheageof40,youhaveno brain.”15However,electiondatashowsthatthisis usually not the case. Typically, the youth vote has matchedthetrendoftheelectorate.Whentheoverallvotehasfavouredpartiesoftheright,youthhavefollowed.Whenithasfollowedtheleft,youngervotessimilarly have matched it.
However,analysisofdatafromseveralcountrieshighlights a clear trend that has begun to develop as Millennialsmakeupanincreasinglylargerpercentageofthevoterbase.WhatthesefindingsdemonstrateisthatMillennials’favourableattitudetowardssocialismformspartofawidershifttotheleftintheyouthdemographic.
IntheUnitedStates,youngervotersreflectedwiderelectionresultsfromthe1970stotheturnofthecentury(SeeFigure8).WhenRonaldReaganstormedtovictoryoverWalterMondalein1984with59%ofthevote,59%ofthoseaged18-29alsovotedfortheconservativeRepublican.WhenBillClintondefeatedBobDolein1996,youngvotersswungintheDemocrat’sfavour.
However,sincethe2000Presidentialelection the firstwhereMillennialscouldparticipate there has beenasignificantdivergence.YouthhavebeguntobacktheDemocratsataratedisproportionatelyhigherthantherestoftheelectorate.WhenGeorgeW.Bush’soverallvoteshareclimbedin2004,itfellamong young voters.
WhenBarrackObamawaselectedin2008,66%ofyoungpeoplevotedforhim.Thiswascomparedto53%oftheoverallelectorate.In2016,despiteDonaldTrump’shockvictory,theRepublicanyouthvoteactually declined compared to 2012. A strong majority (55%)ofvotersaged18-29supportedHillaryClinton7%morethanthe48%ofvoterswhosupportedher overall.
In the United Kingdom, young voters have also tendedtomirrortheoverallnation(SeeFigure9).However,asimilardivergencetopartiesonthelefthasevolvedsinceMillennialsstartedbecomingpolitically active.
ThisismostnotableintheexplosionofyoungpeoplevotingfortheLabourPartyinthe2015and2017generalelections.Bythisstage,Millennialsweremakingupalmosttheentire18-34agebracket.In2015,40%ofthisagebracketvotedLabourandonly30%votedConservative.ThiswasdespiteLabourrecordingitsworstelectionresultsince1987andtheConservativeswinning38%oftheoverallvote(Labour31%),aswellasclaimingtheirfirstoutrightmajority parliament since 1992.16
In2017,MillennialvotersmovedtowardsLabourinevenmoreoverwhelmingnumbersaspartofwhatmanydescribedasa‘youthquake’.17 According to theIpsosMORIpoll,59%ofyoungvoterssupportedLabourandjust27%backedtheConservatives.ThiswasdespitetheConservativesgrowingtheirshareoftheoverallvotefrom38%(2015)to44%.
Figure 8 – United States presidential election polls
Source: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research: How groups voted polls, 1976-2016 collated (18-24 and 25-29 brackets merged)
8
Infact,whiletheConservativeshaveincreasedtheiroverallvotesignificantlysince1997,theirshareoftheyouthvotehasdeclinedinthreeofthelastfiveelectionssincetheturnofthecentury.Thesearetheonly three occasions since polling began in the 1970s where the Conservative youth vote hasn’t declined orincreasedincorrelationwiththeremainderoftheelectorate.
In Australia, Millennials also appear to be leaning moretowardstheleft.Overthepastdecade,asMillennialshavecometomakeupamorecriticalmassofvoters,thepolarityoftheelectoratehasmovedconsistentlytotheleft.TheAustralianElectionStudyhasmappedouttheattitudesofvotersoverthepast
twodecades.Itasksvoterstoplacethemselvesonascalefromthefarlefttofarright.In1996,twoyearsbeforeMillennialswerefirstabletovote,theAustralian electorate was well to the right on the scale (SeeFigure10).
However,sincethenvoterpolarityhasmovedregularlytotheleft.Inthe2016federalelection,voterpolaritytippedontotheleft-wingsideofthescaleforthefirsttimesincethemeasurementbegan.Comparingtheevolutionofthisphenomenonoverthepast two decades with Millennials’ combined voting power gives a telling insight into the nation’s general shifttotheleft.
Figure 9 - United Kingdom general election polls
Figure 10: Australian Election Study - Voter’s left-right position (all ages)
Source: Ipsos MORI: How Britain voted polls, 1974-2017 collated (18-24 & 25-34 brackets merged and averaged)
Source: Australian Election Study - Trends in Australian Political Opinion, pp. 64 (Score scale inverted from a 0 to 10 rating to a 0 to -10 rating for graphical purposes)
9
AsthenumberofMillennialvotershasgrown,voterpolarityhasmovedtotheleftataremarkablysimilarrate.Whenvoterpolarityfirstmovedontotheleft-wingsideofthescalein2016itwasthefirstFederalelection where the entire Millennial generation was abletovote.Bythisstage,thegroupconsistedof31%ofallvoters.
True,notallAustralianMillennialsarefavourabletowardssocialism.However,thesignificantportion
whoseetheideologyinapositivelightwilllikelycontinuetoinfluencethisevolutioninvoterpolarity.
Australia’spoliticalpartiesalsoappearmovingfurthertowardstheleft.Accordingtovoter’sperceptionsinthe Australian Election Study,18Laborhasmoved7%moretotheleftthanwhenthestudybegan(SeeFigure11).VoterssurveyedbelievethattheGreenshavealsomovedtotheleftby21%.TheLiberalParty was even perceived to have moved 3% to the leftsince1996,shiftingbymorethan10%sinceitshighest‘right-wing’scorein2004.
Figure 11; Australian Election Study - Voters rating of party polarity
Source: Australian Election Study: Trends in Australian Political Opinion, pp. 65. (Score scale inverted from a 0 to 10 rating to a 0 to -10 rating for graphical purposes. 0 = Far Left, -5 = Centre, -10 = Far Right)
A matter of ignoranceThere is strong evidence to suggest Millennials are contributingtoaleftwardsshiftacrossthewesternworld.Amajorpartofthismoveislikelybeingdrivenbygenerallyfavourableattitudestowardssocialismandunfavourableopinionsofcapitalism.For the older generations who lived through the ColdWar,theseattitudesmayseemhardtofathom.However,Millennialswerelargelyunaffectedbytheglobalimpactsofseveraldecadesofcommunist/socialist oppression. Consequentially, many may be understandablyunawareofitslegacy.
Indeed, our CIS/YouGov Galaxy polling reveals that most Australian Millennials have a poor awareness ofsomeofsocialism’smostinfamoushistoricalfigures(SeeFigure12).Ofthosepolled,morethan
half(51%)didn’tknowwhoChinesecommunistrevolutionary Mao Zedong was. Only 21% were familiarwithhim.NotonlywasMaoperhapsthemostimportant leader in Asia in the past century, he was alsoresponsibleforbetween37-45milliondeathsduringthefamineassociatedwithhis‘GreatLeapForward’and‘CulturalRevolution’.19
Similarly,42%ofAustralianMillennialsweren’tawareatallofVladimirLenin,theBolshevikrevolutionary,fatherofmoderncommunismandinauguralpremieroftheSovietUnion.Whilemorepeople(34%)werefamiliarwithWorldWarIISovietleaderJosephStalinamanresponsibleforthedeathsofupto43millionpeople approximatelytwo-thirdseitherdidn’tknowhimorwerenotfamiliarwithhisbloodyhistory.20
10
AdolfHitler,thefascistleaderofNaziGermany,servesasaninterestingpointofcontrast.Nearlythree-quarters(73%)ofAustralianMillennialswerefamiliarwiththedictatorandfatherfigureoftheHolocaust.Just5%didn’tknowwhohewas.Hitlerwasaproductofthesameeraasmanyofhistory’smostnotorioussocialistleaders.However,hisstoryhasbeentoldfarmorewidely.Hitler’siconicmoustache,swastikaandNazisalutearesomeofthemostrecognisableimagesintheworld.ThehorrorsofplaceslikeAuschwitzareforeverengrainedinourmindsasexampleofhumanityatitscruellest.Bycontrast,howmanywouldbefamiliarwiththehundredsofSovietgulags the slave labour camps into which up to 50 million people were incarcerated andwhichoperatedfordecades?
Figure 12: Familiarity with major historical figures
Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 5
Source: Rummel ‘Death by Government’ pp. 8. Note: Estimated figures vary significantly across sources
Table 1: 20th Century mass murderers
Dictator Ideology Country Years Deaths Caused
Joseph Stalin Socialist/Communist USSR 1929-53 42.7 million
Mao Zedong Socialist/Communist China 1923-76 37.8million
VladimirLenin Socialist/Communist USSR 1917-24 4 million
Pol Pot Socialist/Communist Cambodia 1968-87 2.4 million
JosipBrozTito Socialist/Communist Yugoslavia 1941-87 1.2 million
Socialist/Communist Total - - 1900-1990 88.1million
AdolfHitler Fascist Germany 1933-45 20.9 million
ChiangKai-shek Militarist/Fascist China 1921-48 10.2 million
TojoHideki Militarist/Fascist Japan 1941-45 4 million
Fascist & Militarist/Fascist total - - 1900-1990 35.1 million
BritishauthorandcommentatorJamesBartholomewargues that society has a duty to educate the younger generationsonthebrutallegacyofsocialism.MuchliketheHolocaustmemorialsthatcanbefoundinSydneyandLondon,hesuggests:“Weshouldcreateapermanentreminderofwhatcommunismdidtohumanity and could potentially do again.”21 School history curriculums should ensure that youth are awareofsocialismsdeadlyimpactonourAsianneighbours. Meanwhile,greatereducationonthepracticalfailingsoftheideologyasaneconomicsystemcouldalsoserve as a reminder that economic prosperity is bestobtainedthroughthepowerofthefreemarket.All economies that have enjoyed growth and have broadenedprosperityhavedonesothroughfreetradeandfreemarkets.Regulationandhightaxationaretheenemyofprosperity,andprosperityistheonlymeansofprovidingthepublicservicesthatsocialistsaresofondofclaimingtheyprize.
11
ConclusionThefindingsoftheCIS/YouGovGalaxyopinionpollgiveatellinginsightintotheattitudesofAustralianMillennials.Whileastrongmajorityexpressingafavourableopiniontowardssocialismhardlymeansthecountryisonthevergeofaclassrevolution,thetrendmayhaveasignificanteffectasMillennialsmoveintopositionsofpowerincomingyears.
Importantly,beliefsaboutgovernmentspendingandthenatureofcapitalismcouldhavemajorpolicyimplications.Ashasbeendemonstrated,theinfluenceofMillennialshasgrownindirectcorrelationwiththeelectorate’sincreasedfavourabilityformoreinterventionintheeconomy,andsupportforariseinthe nation’s social services bill. Issues such as house prices and low wage growth will only increase the calls forchange.
Such trends are also evident internationally, and are partofaclearshiftinthepolarityofyoungvoters.Historically,theyouthvotehasgenerallycorrelatedwiththeoverallsentimentoftheelectorate.However,asMillennialshavecometoconsistofthemajorityoftheyouthcontingent,youngervotershavemovedsignificantlytowardsthepoliticalleft.
To address the growing sympathy towards socialism, it is essential to educate Millennials andfuturegenerationsonthe20thcentury’sfailedexperimentationwiththeideology.Foravarietyofreasons,youtharefarlessawareofsocialism’sroleinsomeofthegreatestcatastrophesinhumanhistory and have begun to view it benignly. This is no minor problem: one day such people may exercise a vote to impose such appalling doctrines, and their collateral damage, on our society.
12
Tab
le 1
- O
vera
ll vi
ew o
f so
cial
ism
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
aTo
tal
Mal
eFe
mal
e1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
Subtotalunfavourable
18.00%
21.0
0%16.00%
22.0
0%17
.00%
15.0
0%14
.00%
18.00%
21.0
0%19
.00%
18.00%
19.0
0%22
.00%
15.0
0%18.00%
19.0
0%Mostlyunfavourable
6.00%
7.00
%5.
00%
7.00
%6.00%
5.00
%4.
00%
6.00%
7.00
%6.00%
6.00%
8.00%
9.00
%4.
00%
6.00%
6.00%
Somewhatunfavourable
12.0
0%13
.00%
11.0
0%16.00%
11.0
0%10
.00%
10.0
0%12
.00%
14.0
0%13
.00%
12.0
0%12
.00%
13.0
0%12
.00%
12.0
0%13
.00%
Subtotalfavourable
58.00%
62.00%
54.0
0%51
.00%
58.00%
64.00%
56.00%
52.0
0%63.00%
63.00%
54.0
0%58.00%
56.00%
56.00%
60.00%
54.0
0%Somewhatfavourable
41.0
0%42
.00%
41.0
0%38.00%
40.0
0%46.00%
41.0
0%40
.00%
43.0
0%47
.00%
35.0
0%48.00%
40.0
0%38.00%
42.0
0%41
.00%
Mostlyfavourable
16.00%
20.0
0%13
.00%
13.0
0%18.00%
18.00%
15.0
0%12
.00%
20.0
0%16.00%
18.00%
12.0
0%16.00%
18.00%
18.00%
13.0
0%D
on’t K
now
24.0
0%30
.00%
30.0
0%27
.00%
25.0
0%21
.00%
30.0
0%30
.00%
17.0
0%18.00%
29.0
0%23
.00%
22.0
0%28.00%
22.0
0%27
.00%
Tab
le 2
- O
rdin
ary
wo
rker
s in
Aus
tral
ia a
re w
ors
e o
ff n
ow t
han
they
wer
e fo
rty
year
s ag
o
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
aTo
tal
Mal
eFe
mal
e1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
Agr
ee62.00%
59.0
0%64.00%
61.00%
60.00%
64.00%
67.00%
60.00%
61.00%
69.00%
60.00%
56.00%
67.00%
53.0
0%62.00%
63.00%
Dis
agre
e32
.00%
34.0
0%29
.00%
32.0
0%33
.00%
30.0
0%26.00%
33.0
0%34
.00%
27.0
0%30
.00%
35.0
0%29
.00%
43.0
0%32
.00%
30.0
0%D
on’t K
now
6.00%
7.00
%6.00%
6.00%
7.00
%6.00%
7.00
%8.00%
5.00
%4.
00%
10.0
0%9.
00%
4.00
%4.
00%
6.00%
7.00
%
Tab
le 3
- A
llow
ing
fo
r in
flat
ion,
Aus
tral
ia s
pen
ds
less
on
educ
atio
n an
d h
ealt
h th
an w
e d
id t
en y
ears
ag
o
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
aTo
tal
Mal
eFe
mal
e1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
Agr
ee56.00%
57.0
0%55
.00%
57.0
0%59
.00%
53.0
0%60.00%
56.00%
55.0
0%59
.00%
53.0
0%56.00%
59.0
0%53
.00%
55.0
0%61.00%
Dis
agre
e30
.00%
30.0
0%29
.00%
26.00%
27.0
0%36.00%
26.00%
26.00%
34.0
0%28.00%
31.0
0%31
.00%
24.0
0%36.00%
32.0
0%25
.00%
Don
’t K
now
14.0
0%12
.00%
15.0
0%17
.00%
14.0
0%11
.00%
14.0
0%18.00%
11.0
0%12
.00%
17.0
0%13
.00%
17.0
0%11
.00%
13.0
0%15
.00%
Tab
le 4
- C
apit
alis
m h
as f
aile
d a
nd g
over
nmen
t sh
oul
d e
xerc
ise
mo
re c
ont
rol o
f th
e ec
ono
my
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
aTo
tal
Mal
eFe
mal
e1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
Agr
ee59
.00%
60.00%
57.0
0%57
.00%
61.00%
59.0
0%63.00%
59.0
0%57
.00%
62.00%
54.0
0%58.00%
65.00%
53.0
0%56.00%
64.00%
Dis
agre
e25
.00%
28.00%
23.0
0%25
.00%
23.0
0%28.00%
18.00%
20.0
0%33
.00%
25.0
0%27
.00%
28.00%
21.0
0%29
.00%
26.00%
19.0
0%D
on’t K
now
16.00%
12.0
0%20
.00%
18.00%
16.00%
14.0
0%19
.00%
22.0
0%11
.00%
14.0
0%19
.00%
15.0
0%15
.00%
18.00%
16.00%
17.0
0%
Ap
pen
dix
A
13
Tab
le 5
- L
evel
of
fam
iliar
ity
wit
h p
eop
le
Mao
Zed
ong
Jose
ph S
talin
AdolfHitler
VladimirLenin
I’mfamiliarwiththem
21.0
0%34
.00%
73.0
0%26.00%
Iknowthembutnotfamiliar
28.00%
34.0
0%21
.00%
32.0
0%Idon’tknowthem
51.0
0%32
.00%
5.00
%42
.00%
Tab
le 6
- L
evel
of
fam
iliar
ity
wit
h p
eop
le -
Mao
Zed
ong
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
aTo
tal
Mal
eFe
mal
e1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
I’mfamiliarwiththem
21.0
0%28.00%
14.0
0%21
.00%
21.0
0%22
.00%
13.0
0%13
.00%
30.0
0%25
.00%
24.0
0%18.00%
13.0
0%16.00%
25.0
0%14
.00%
Iknowthembutnotfamiliar
28.00%
31.0
0%25
.00%
28.00%
28.00%
28.00%
20.0
0%26.00%
34.0
0%30
.00%
33.0
0%28.00%
31.0
0%35
.00%
30.0
0%23
.00%
Idon’tknowthem
51.0
0%41
.00%
60.00%
51.0
0%51
.00%
49.0
0%67.00%
61.00%
36.00%
45.0
0%54
.00%
54.0
0%56.00%
48.00%
45.0
0%63.00%
Tab
le 7
- L
evel
of
fam
iliar
ity
wit
h p
eop
le -
Jo
sep
h St
alin
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
aTo
tal
Mal
eFe
mal
e1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
I’mfamiliarwiththem
34.0
0%42
.00%
27.0
0%36.00%
32.0
0%36.00%
27.0
0%29
.00%
42.0
0%33
.00%
33.0
0%38.00%
34.0
0%40
.00%
37.0
0%29
.00%
Iknowthembutnotfamiliar
34.0
0%34
.00%
33.0
0%33
.00%
34.0
0%34
.00%
28.00%
33.0
0%37
.00%
35.0
0%33
.00%
30.0
0%38.00%
36.00%
36.00%
27.0
0%Idon’tknowthem
32.0
0%25
.00%
39.0
0%32
.00%
35.0
0%30
.00%
45.0
0%38.00%
21.0
0%32
.00%
34.0
0%32
.00%
28.00%
24.0
0%27
.00%
44.0
0%
Tab
le 8
- L
evel
of
fam
iliar
ity
wit
h p
eop
le -
Ad
olf
Hit
ler
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
aTo
tal
Mal
eFe
mal
e1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
I’mfamiliarwiththem
73.0
0%73
.00%
73.0
0%72
.00%
73.0
0%75
.00%
69.00%
78.00%
73.0
0%70
.00%
71.0
0%75
.00%
75.0
0%82.00%
72.0
0%75
.00%
Iknowthembutnotfamiliar
21.0
0%21
.00%
22.0
0%23
.00%
21.0
0%20
.00%
22.0
0%18.00%
23.0
0%26.00%
21.0
0%19
.00%
21.0
0%14
.00%
22.0
0%20
.00%
Idon’tknowthem
5.00
%6.00%
5.00
%5.
00%
6.00%
5.00
%8.00%
4.00
%4.
00%
4.00
%8.00%
6.00%
4.00
%4.
00%
6.00%
4.00
%
Tab
le 9
- L
evel
of
fam
iliar
ity
wit
h p
eop
le -
Vla
dim
ir L
enin
Gen
der
Bir
th Y
ear
Edu
cati
onS
tate
Are
a
Tota
lM
ale
Fem
ale
1980-85
1986-901991-96No
Tert
iary
Tafeor
Tech
nica
lU
nive
rsity
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Urb
anRe
gion
al
I’mfamiliarwiththem
26.00%
32.0
0%20
.00%
31.0
0%22
.00%
25.0
0%17
.00%
22.0
0%34
.00%
29.0
0%26.00%
23.0
0%25
.00%
28.00%
29.0
0%19
.00%
Iknowthembutnotfamiliar
32.0
0%32
.00%
32.0
0%34
.00%
31.0
0%31
.00%
29.0
0%30
.00%
35.0
0%32
.00%
31.0
0%33
.00%
38.00%
34.0
0%34
.00%
28.00%
Idon’tknowthem
42.0
0%36.00%
48.00%
35.0
0%47
.00%
44.0
0%54
.00%
48.00%
32.0
0%39
.00%
43.0
0%45
.00%
37.0
0%39
.00%
37.0
0%53
.00%
14
1 Pipes, Richard. Communism: A History. Random HousePublishingGroup,2001,pp.158
2 Tang, Edmund. Australia Has Experienced the Longest Economic Growth among the major developed world. Austrade, 29 March 2017. https://www.austrade.gov.au/News/Economic-analysis/australia-has-experienced-the-longest-economic-growth-among-major-developed-world(Accessed31May2018)
3 2016ABSCensusData
4 Manpower Group. Millennial Careers: 2020 Vision. ManpowerGroup,2016,pp.3
5 Carl,Noah.WhyDoAcademicsLeanLeft?.AdamSmith Institute, 2017, pp. 1
6 Hugo,Graeme.What Is Happening in Rural and Regional Populations?. The Regional Institute, 2012. http://www.regional.org.au/au/countrytowns/keynote/hugo.htm#P1974_43191 (Accessed31May2018)
7 Angus, Chris. NSW Economic Update Summer 2018.NSWParliamentaryResearchService,January2018,pp.2&CommSec.State of the States - Overview of NSW April 2018. CommonwealthBank,2018,Availableat:https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/Campaigns_Native/stateofstates/April2018/NSW_State_of_the_States_April2018.pdf (Accessed 1 June2018),pp.1
8 Trading Economics. Australia Disposable Personal Income | 1959-2018. Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/disposable-personal-income(Accessed5June2018)
9 AustralianInstituteofHealthandWelfare.Health Expenditure Australia 2007-08. Australian Government, 2009, pp. 21
10 AustralianInstituteofHealthandWelfare.Health Expenditure Australia 2015-16. Australian Government, 2017, pp. vii
11 Productivity Commission. National Education Evidence Base(DraftReport).AustralianGovernment,2016,pp.23
12 Asthana,Anushka,JessicaElgot,andRowenaMason. Jeremy Corbyn: Neoliberalism Is Broken and We Are Now the Centre Ground. The Guardian, September 27, 2017, Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/
sep/27/jeremy-corbyn-promises-rent-controls-and-clampdown-on-gentrification (Accessed 1 June 2018)
13 Roberts,Carys,andMathewLawrence.Wealth in the Twenty-First Century: Inequalities and Drivers. InstitutionforPublicPolicyResearch,October2017, pp. 9
14 Sayers, Freddie. ‘Berners’ and ‘Corbynistas’: New Coalitions of the Left. YouGov, February 15,2016.Availableat:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/15/berners-and-corybnistas-new-coalitions-left/(Accessed1June2018)
15 Graham, Matthew Moore and Sarah. Champagne Socialists‘NotasLeftWingasTheyThinkTheyAre. The Telegraph, 14 July 2010. Available at: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/7887888/Champagne-socialists-not-as-left-wing-as-they-think-they-are.html (Accessed 31May2018)
16 Parker,George. Conservatives Secure Stunning Victory. Financial Times, 7 May 2015. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/7ec06b42-f4f1-11e4-abb5-00144feab7de(Accessed31May2018)
17 Rudgard,Olivia,andAshleyKirk.YouthquakeIs2017’sWordoftheYearafterJeremyCorbyn’sElection Campaign. The Telegraph, 15 December 2017. Available at: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/15/youthquake-2017s-word-year-jeremy-corbyns-election-campaign/ (Accessed 1 June2018)
18 SchoolofPoliticsandInternationalRelations,andANUCollegeofArts&SocialSciences.Trends in Australian Political Opinon: Results from the Australian Election Study 1987-2016. Australian NationalUniversity,2018,pp.65
19 Dikötter,Frank.Mao’s Great Famine: The History of China’s Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958-62. BloomsburyPublishing,2010,pp.333
20 Rummel, R. J. Death by Government: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900.Routledge,2018, pp.8
21 Bartholomew,James.BritainNeedsaMuseumofCommunistTerror.TheSpectator,5March2016.Availableat:https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/britain-needs-a-museum-of-communist-terror/(Accessed30May2018)
Endnotes
15
Opinion Polling on Australian Expenditure
ParliamentofAustralia.Twenty Years of Opinion Polling.Availableat:https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0304/04rp13(Accessed30May2018)
ABC.SpendingPublicMoney:HowDoYourViewsStackUp?.ABCNews,24October2016.Availableat:http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-24/australian-public-expenditure-anu-poll/7959486(Accessed30May2018)
YouGov United States Survey
Jordan,William.Democrats More Divided on Socialism.YouGov,28January2016.Availableat:https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/01/28/democrats-remain-divided-socialism(Accessed30May2018)
YouGov United Kingdom Survey
Dahlgreen,Will.British People Keener on Socialism than Capitalism.YouGov,February23,2016.Availableat:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/british-people-view-socialism-more-favourably-capi/.(Accessed31May2018)
Level 1, 131 Macquarie St, Sydney NSW 2000 • phone: +61 2 9438 4377 • fax: +61 2 9439 7310 • email: [email protected]
POLICY Paper 7 (PP7) • ISSN: 2209-2447 • ISBN: 978-1-925744-23-1
Published June 2018 by The Centre for Independent Studies Limited. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Centre’s staff, advisors, directors or officers.
© The Centre for Independent Studies (ABN 15 001 495 012)
This publication is available from The Centre for Independent Studies. Visit www.cis.org.au.
About the Authors
Tom Switzer TomSwitzeristheExecutiveDirectorattheCIS.HeisaformerseniorfellowattheUniversity of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre (2009-17), a former editor oftheSpectatorAustralia(2009-14),seniorfederalLiberalleaderadviser/speechwriter(2008),opinioneditorofTheAustralian,(2001-08),editorialwriterattheAustralianFinancialReview(1998-01)andassistanteditorattheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteinWashington,DC(1995-98).HehaswrittenforthelikesoftheWallStreetJournal,NewYorkTimes,WashingtonPost,TheSpectatorandFinancialTimes.HehasalsoappearedonCNN,CNBC,Bloomberg,AlJazeera,SkyNews,SBS,Seven,Nine,TenandABCradioandtelevision.HehostsBetweentheLinesonABC’sRadioNational.
Charles Jacobs Charles Jacobs is a Policy Analyst at the CIS. His research on the CommonwealthIndigenousProcurementPolicyhasseenhimconsultedbytheNSWStateGovernmentand Canadian Defence Force on the development of their own minority set-asidepolicies.HehasalsowrittenonthetopicforlikesoftheAustralianFinancialReview,ABCOnlineandSpectatorFlatWhiteandcommentedonpolicyissuesforstationssuchas ABC Radio, National Indigenous Radio Service and Radio National. Charles alsoworksasaStatisticianforFoxSportsAustralia.