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No. 7 June 2018 Tom Switzer Charles Jacobs Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching to the left

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Page 1: Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching ... · Millennials are turning 38 in 2018, and are quickly moving into more influential positions in politics, business and

No. 7 • June 2018

Tom Switzer Charles Jacobs

Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching to the left

Page 2: Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching ... · Millennials are turning 38 in 2018, and are quickly moving into more influential positions in politics, business and
Page 3: Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching ... · Millennials are turning 38 in 2018, and are quickly moving into more influential positions in politics, business and

POLICY Paper 7

Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching

to the left

Tom Switzer Charles Jacobs

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ContentsMillennials and socialism .........................................................................................1

Attitudes towards socialism .....................................................................................2

Favourability towards Socialism .......................................................................2

Views on capitalism and government intervention ..............................................2

Aflow-oneffect .............................................................................................3

International comparisons ......................................................................................5

Youthshiftingtotheleft .........................................................................................7

Amatterofignorance ............................................................................................9

Conclusion .........................................................................................................11

Appendix A .........................................................................................................12

Endnotes ............................................................................................................14

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ThefalloftheBerlinWallon9November1989wasa prescient moment in global history. Although the SovietUnionwouldnotofficiallycollapseforanothertwoyears,theimagesofBerlinerstearingdownthisphysicalandideologicalbarrierwereemblematicoftheEurope’sfailedexperimentwithsocialism.Theironcurtainthathadenvelopedmostofthecontinent’seast had not brought equality and a classless society. Norhaditbroughtthepromisedproductivityandefficiencythatwould so its supporters claimed see socialism replace capitalism as the primary means ofglobaleconomicorder.

Rather,socialismhadleftawarrenofpoverty,oppressionandfailedstatesinitswake.Astarkwarning to all those who lived through it to never repeatthemistakesofanideologythat,despiteitsromanticised ideals, led to as many deaths as both world wars combined.1

Whilethelessonsofthissocialistdisasterareentrenchedinthemindsofageneration,thememoryoftheSovietUnionisbeginningtofade.Meanwhile,ourunderstandingofthecommunistregimeinChinaremainslimited.ThereislessawarenessofmanyofAsia’s 20thcenturyconflicts,andtherolesocialismhasplayedinthem.AsaresultofoureconomiclinkswithChina,wearealsolesslikelytocondemntheirideology as we once would have denounced the Soviet Union.

Consequently,anever-growinggroupofvotershavenevertrulyseentheeffectsofsocialism.Millennials thosebornbetween1980and1996 mostly came to theirpoliticalawarenessaftersocialism’slongreignofterror.TheoldestwereagedjustninewhentheBerlinwallfell.

Bythelate90s,whenMillennialsbegantovote,prosperity was on the rise. Australia was eight years intoourrecord-breaking27-yearstreakofeconomicgrowth.2 The United States was experiencing a similar economic boom. Meanwhile, Europeans were bolstered bythenewfoundoptimismofthepost-Sovietera.

During the past decade, Millennials have acquired a greaterinfluenceinsociety.Since2014,theentiregenerationhasbeenabletovote.In2016theymadeupover30%oftheAustralianelectorate.3 The oldest Millennialsareturning38in2018,andarequicklymovingintomoreinfluentialpositionsinpolitics,businessandthemedia.By2020theywillmakeup35%oftheworld’sworkforce.4

This being the case, it is important to understand howMillennialsthink,andwhatvaluesdrivethem.Aspartofthisprocess,theCentreforIndependentStudies commissioned polling agency YouGov Galaxy tosampletheopinionsof1003AustralianMillennialsontheirviewsofsocialismanditsplaceinsociety.Thefollowingpaperoutlinesourfindings,looksatsimilaranalysesinotherWesterncountries,andidentifiessome clear overarching political trends that are evolvingasMillennialsbecomeincreasinglyinfluential.

Millennials and socialism

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ThepollingundertakenhighlightsAustralianMillennials’viewsofsocialismandhowtheseshapetheir attitudes towards the economy, capitalism and theroleofgovernmentinsociety.Afull,tabulatedbreakdownofresponsestoeachquestionbyallvariables is available in Appendix A.

Favourability towards Socialism

Question1assessedaskedAustralianMillennialstorespond based on their ‘Overall view of socialism’. Participantswereaskedtoratetheirviewsbasedonthree major categories:

• Favourable view of socialism (Sub categories: Mostlyfavourable;Somewhatfavourable)

• Unfavourable view of socialism (Sub categories: Mostlyunfavourable;Somewhatunfavourable)

• Don’t know

Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbeseenin Figure 1 below.

Themostnotablefindingherewasthat,overall,58%ofAustralianMillennialspolledviewsocialismfavourably.Lessthanafifth(18%)viewtheideologyunfavourably.Interestingly,thisfigurewascommonacrosstherangeofvariablesmeasuredinthesurvey,withlittlesignificantdifferencebetweencomparablegroups.

Thelargestvariationwasuniversity-educatedMillennials(63%favourableviewofsocialism)andthosewithTAFE/Technicalqualifications(52%favourable).GiventhatMillennialsarefarmorelikelytobeexposedtosocialismatuniversity,thiscouldinpartbeduetoTAFE/TechnicalqualifiedMillennials’lackofawarenessoftheideologyandits

underpinnings.Indeed,30%ofbothTAFEqualifiedrespondentsandthosewithoutatertiaryqualificationreportedthattheydidn’tknowwhattheirviewonsocialism was.

Thesefindingsareproblematicfortworeasons.Firstly, it is a damning indictment on our school systemthatnearlyathirdofnon-universityeducatedstudentshavelimitedtonounderstandingofsocialismas an ideology. In most constituencies, history is a non-compulsorysubjectinlateryearsofhighschoolandthusstudentsarenoteducatedonthefailedimplementationsofsocialismthroughoutthe20th century.

Secondly,thefactthatmoreuniversity-educatedrespondentsdemonstratedanawarenessofsocialismshould lead to a higher proportion understanding its practicalfailings.However,Millennialgraduatesviewedsocialismmorefavourablythananyothergroup.This raises questions about the lens through which socialism is being portrayed in universities. In recent years, critics have suggested that universities are lurchingfurthertotheleft.5Althoughmoreevidence-basedresearchisneeded,thepoll’sfindingsindicatethat the trends are indeed endurable, and hint at this being an issue.

Views on capitalism and government intervention

It is important not to assume that Millennials’ favourableviewsonsocialismdirectlycorrelatewiththebeliefthattheideologyisultimatelythebestapproachformanagingAustralia.Whilesomeonemayfindtheoverarchingvaluesandprinciplesofanideology endearing, they may not necessarily believe ittobethemostrationalandeffectiveapproach.

Attitudes towards socialism

Figure 1: Australian Millennials - Overall view of socialism

Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 1.

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Tounderstandhowtheirviewsfitcomparatively,AustralianMillennialswereaskedwhether‘Capitalism has failed and government should exercise more control of the economy’. They were given three possibleanswers:Agree;Disagree;Don’tknow.Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbeseenin Figure 2 below.

WhatisimmediatelystrikingisthesimilaritybetweenFigure1andFigure2.Overall,59%ofAustralianMillennialsbelievethatcapitalismhasfailedandthatthe government must play a greater role in regulating theeconomy.Onceagain,thetrendisfairlyconsistentacross comparable groups. The biggest divergence is betweenurbanandregionalMillennials.Nearlytwo-thirds(64%)ofrespondentsinregionalareasbelievedthatcapitalismhasfailed.

Conversely,56%percentofurbanMillennialsheldthisopinion.Itislikelythatthelossofindustries

and jobs in regional areas contributes to this difference.Centralisationandtheoffshoringofmostmanufacturinghasdisproportionatelyimpactedthe regions compared to major cities.6 Once again, university-educatedMillennialsweremuchmorelikelytoexpressafirmopiniononthequestion,with33%disagreeingthatcapitalismhadfailedand57%agreeing.Only11%saidtheydidn’tknow.

A flow-on effect

Dissatisfactionwithcapitalism,takentogetherwithbenign attitudes towards socialism, has meant that many Millennials hold pessimistic views about the currenteconomicoutlook.Respondentswereaskedwhether ‘Ordinary workers are worse off today than they were 40 years ago’. They were given threepossibleanswers:Agree;Disagree;Don’tknow.Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbeseenin Figure 3 below.

Figure 2: Australian Millennials - Capitalism has failed and the government should exercise more economic control

Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 4.

Figure 3: Australian Millennials - Workers are worse off now than 40 years ago

Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 2

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Herethetrendagainremainsconsistent,withnearlytwo-thirdsofeachgroupingagreeingthatworkersareworseoff.Thosewithnotertiaryqualificationwerethemostlikelytoagree,with67%believingworkerswereworseoff.Thelargestgroupdisagreeingwiththe statement were those with a university degree. Thedifferencebetweenthesetwogroupsmaybeareflectionofthegrowing‘braineconomy’,withgraduatequalificationsincreasinglyviewedmorefavourablybyemployers.

Notably,69%ofrespondentsfromNewSouthWalesagreedthatthesituationforworkershaddeclined;

more than any other state polled. This is despite the factthat,fornineconsecutivequarters,theNSWeconomyhasbeenthebestperformingofanystatein Australia.7InWesternAustralia,53%ofMillennialsbelievedthatworkerswereworseoff,with43%disagreeingwiththisstatement.AfullbreakdownofstateresponsesforeachquestioncanbefoundinAppendix A.

Inreality,allworkers,andindeedallAustralians,aresubstantiallybetteroffthan40yearsago.Disposablepersonal income and Australian consumer spending bothhitall-timehighsinthefourthquarterof2017.8

Figure 4: Australian Millennials - Allowing for inflation, Australia spends less on education and health than we did 10 years ago

Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 3

Figure 5: Australia - Views on government spending poll (all ages)

Source: Parliament of Australia & ABC (See Endnotes for full details)

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The minimum wage has been on the rise, and in thefourthquarterof2017weeklyincomereachedanhistoricalhighof$1192thiswas$254(2017dollars)morethaninthefourthquarterof1977.

Moreover,fromthemid-1980stoabout2012,Australia experienced the biggest national income boomsincethegoldrushes;andtheeconomyispresently in its 27thconsecutiveyearofeconomicgrowth,surpassingtheNetherlandsforthegoldmedalofthelongestexpansioninthemodernera.

And yet, Millennials believe the government should betakingamoredirectapproach.AsFigure2shows,59%ofpollrespondentsbelievethegovernmentshould exercise more control over the economy. Additionally,Millennialsarefrustratedwithaperceivedlackofgovernmentspendingonsocialservices.Pollrespondentswereaskedwhether,‘After allowing for inflation, Australia spends less on education and health than we did ten years ago.’ They were giventhreepossibleanswers:Agree;Disagree;Don’tknow.Abreakdownofresultsbymajorvariablescanbe seen in Figure 4 below.

Whiletheresultswerelessresoundingthanforotherquestions,amajorityofrespondentsineverymajorvariableagreedwiththisstatement.Overall,56%ofAustralianMillennialsbelievedthatlessisspenton these major social services, while 30% did not. Thosefromregionalareas(61%)andthosewithnotertiaryqualifications(60%)werethemostlikelytobeofthisopinion.Thismaybeasymptomofthese

groupsfeeling‘leftout’bythesystem.Urbananduniversityeducatedrespondentsweretheleastlikelyto disagree.

Statistically, these assumptions are simply wrong. Government expenditure has grown by 30% in realtermsinthepastdecade.In2007/08,totalgovernmentfundingforhealthcarewas$87billion(2016/17dollars).9 It had increased to more than $115billioninrealtermsby2015-16.10 Education spending has also increased substantially.11

However,theabovesentimentshavecontributedtoamassiveriseinvotersupportforincreasedgovernmentspending.SinceMillennialswerefirstabletovotein1998,thepercentageofvotersfavouringmore spending on social services has increased dramatically(SeeFigure5).Whileotherfactorsmayalsoberesponsibleforthistrend,thereissignificantcorrelationbetweenthegrowingnumberofMillennialsin the overall voter base and the desire to see the government do more.

In 2004, opinion reached a turning point, with more voters(38%)favouringspendingonsocialservicesthanadecreaseintax(35%)forthefirsttimesincepollingbeganin1984.Inthefollowingyears,thishascontinuedtogrow.In2016,Millennialsmadeupnearlyathirdoftheelectorate(31%),with55%ofvotersfavouringanincreaseingovernmentspendingsuggestingthattheyarehavingamajorinfluenceon opinions.

International comparisons

AcomparisonwithotherWesterncountriesshowsthat,similarlytoAustralia,Millennialsprefersocialismtocapitalism.In2016,YouGovundertookpollssimilarto our Australian study in both the United Kingdom and United States. The results showed a clear differentialbetweenattitudestothesetwoideologies.Notably,however,thetrendsarenotasextremeasthoseidentifiedintheCIS/YouGovGalaxyAustraliapoll.

IntheUnitedStates,43%ofrespondentsaged18-29viewedsocialismfavourably,with26%viewingitunfavourably.Capitalismwasviewedwithmoredisdain.MorethanathirdofAmericanyouth(36%)viewedcapitalismunfavourably.Alittlemorethan30%vieweditfavourably.ThiswassignificantlydifferenttotheoverallAmericanpopulation,whoviewedcapitalismmuchmorefavourablyandviewedsocialismwithsignificantscepticism.

Fallingin2016,theYouGovpollwasalsoableto gauge the reaction to Democratic primary

candidateBernieSanders’descriptionofhimselfasa“democraticsocialist.”OfAmericansaged18-29,19%saidthisstatementwouldmakethemmorelikelytovoteforhim,with11%sayingitmadethemlesslikely.Thiswastheinverseoftheoverallpopulation,12%sayingthisstatementmadevotingforhimmorelikely,and18%sayingitmadethislesslikely.

IntheUnitedKingdom,socialismwassignificantlymorepopularacrossallagegroups.The2016YouGovPollfoundthatBritishpeopleover60weretheonlyagegrouptoviewtheideologyunfavourably.Amongthoseaged18-24,38%ofrespondentsviewedsocialismfavourably,with20%viewingitunfavourably.Capitalismwassignificantlymoreunpopular.Only25%oftheyouthagebracketvieweditfavourably,whilst40%vieweditunfavourably.Meanwhile,39%ofallBritspolledviewedcapitalismunfavourably.

In similar circumstances to the United States, the UnitedKingdomhasalsowitnessedtheriseofamajor

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politicalfigurewhoidentifiesassocialist.Speakingatthe2017LabourPartyConferenceinBrighton,leader Jeremy Corbyn argued that the Thatcher era“neoliberal”economicmodelwasbroken,andpromisedtotransform“thesystem”ofwealthre-distributioninGreatBritain.12HeispromisingtonationalisemanyofBritain’skeyindustries,includingwater, electricity, gas and railways. Meanwhile, Labour’streasuryspokesmanJohnMcDonnellhasunashamedlyquotedfromMao’s‘LittleRedBook’inparliament.

AlthoughCorbyn’sagendaisunthinkabletosupportersofthefreemarket,hismessagehasappealedtoyoungervoters,manyofwhomfeelleftoutinacountry that is seen as increasingly unequal.13 A 2015 YouGovpollofLabourselectoratemembersrevealedthat64%ofrespondentsaged18-24,and67%ofthoseaged25-39the‘Millennial’generation preferredJeremyCorbynasLabourleader.14 Only 51% ofLabourmembersinthe60+bracketfavouredhim.

Figure 6: United States - Overall view of socialism and capitalism

Source: 2016 YouGov Poll UK attitudes to socialism and capitalism (See Endnotes for full details)

Source: 2016 YouGov Poll US attitudes to socialism and capitalism (See Endnotes for full details)

Figure 7: United Kingdom - View of socialism and capitalism

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Youth shifting to the leftManywillbefamiliarwiththeoldadage:“Ifyou’renotasocialistattheageof20youhavenoheart.Ifyou’renotaconservativeattheageof40,youhaveno brain.”15However,electiondatashowsthatthisis usually not the case. Typically, the youth vote has matchedthetrendoftheelectorate.Whentheoverallvotehasfavouredpartiesoftheright,youthhavefollowed.Whenithasfollowedtheleft,youngervotessimilarly have matched it.

However,analysisofdatafromseveralcountrieshighlights a clear trend that has begun to develop as Millennialsmakeupanincreasinglylargerpercentageofthevoterbase.WhatthesefindingsdemonstrateisthatMillennials’favourableattitudetowardssocialismformspartofawidershifttotheleftintheyouthdemographic.

IntheUnitedStates,youngervotersreflectedwiderelectionresultsfromthe1970stotheturnofthecentury(SeeFigure8).WhenRonaldReaganstormedtovictoryoverWalterMondalein1984with59%ofthevote,59%ofthoseaged18-29alsovotedfortheconservativeRepublican.WhenBillClintondefeatedBobDolein1996,youngvotersswungintheDemocrat’sfavour.

However,sincethe2000Presidentialelection the firstwhereMillennialscouldparticipate there has beenasignificantdivergence.YouthhavebeguntobacktheDemocratsataratedisproportionatelyhigherthantherestoftheelectorate.WhenGeorgeW.Bush’soverallvoteshareclimbedin2004,itfellamong young voters.

WhenBarrackObamawaselectedin2008,66%ofyoungpeoplevotedforhim.Thiswascomparedto53%oftheoverallelectorate.In2016,despiteDonaldTrump’shockvictory,theRepublicanyouthvoteactually declined compared to 2012. A strong majority (55%)ofvotersaged18-29supportedHillaryClinton7%morethanthe48%ofvoterswhosupportedher overall.

In the United Kingdom, young voters have also tendedtomirrortheoverallnation(SeeFigure9).However,asimilardivergencetopartiesonthelefthasevolvedsinceMillennialsstartedbecomingpolitically active.

ThisismostnotableintheexplosionofyoungpeoplevotingfortheLabourPartyinthe2015and2017generalelections.Bythisstage,Millennialsweremakingupalmosttheentire18-34agebracket.In2015,40%ofthisagebracketvotedLabourandonly30%votedConservative.ThiswasdespiteLabourrecordingitsworstelectionresultsince1987andtheConservativeswinning38%oftheoverallvote(Labour31%),aswellasclaimingtheirfirstoutrightmajority parliament since 1992.16

In2017,MillennialvotersmovedtowardsLabourinevenmoreoverwhelmingnumbersaspartofwhatmanydescribedasa‘youthquake’.17 According to theIpsosMORIpoll,59%ofyoungvoterssupportedLabourandjust27%backedtheConservatives.ThiswasdespitetheConservativesgrowingtheirshareoftheoverallvotefrom38%(2015)to44%.

Figure 8 – United States presidential election polls

Source: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research: How groups voted polls, 1976-2016 collated (18-24 and 25-29 brackets merged)

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Infact,whiletheConservativeshaveincreasedtheiroverallvotesignificantlysince1997,theirshareoftheyouthvotehasdeclinedinthreeofthelastfiveelectionssincetheturnofthecentury.Thesearetheonly three occasions since polling began in the 1970s where the Conservative youth vote hasn’t declined orincreasedincorrelationwiththeremainderoftheelectorate.

In Australia, Millennials also appear to be leaning moretowardstheleft.Overthepastdecade,asMillennialshavecometomakeupamorecriticalmassofvoters,thepolarityoftheelectoratehasmovedconsistentlytotheleft.TheAustralianElectionStudyhasmappedouttheattitudesofvotersoverthepast

twodecades.Itasksvoterstoplacethemselvesonascalefromthefarlefttofarright.In1996,twoyearsbeforeMillennialswerefirstabletovote,theAustralian electorate was well to the right on the scale (SeeFigure10).

However,sincethenvoterpolarityhasmovedregularlytotheleft.Inthe2016federalelection,voterpolaritytippedontotheleft-wingsideofthescaleforthefirsttimesincethemeasurementbegan.Comparingtheevolutionofthisphenomenonoverthepast two decades with Millennials’ combined voting power gives a telling insight into the nation’s general shifttotheleft.

Figure 9 - United Kingdom general election polls

Figure 10: Australian Election Study - Voter’s left-right position (all ages)

Source: Ipsos MORI: How Britain voted polls, 1974-2017 collated (18-24 & 25-34 brackets merged and averaged)

Source: Australian Election Study - Trends in Australian Political Opinion, pp. 64 (Score scale inverted from a 0 to 10 rating to a 0 to -10 rating for graphical purposes)

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AsthenumberofMillennialvotershasgrown,voterpolarityhasmovedtotheleftataremarkablysimilarrate.Whenvoterpolarityfirstmovedontotheleft-wingsideofthescalein2016itwasthefirstFederalelection where the entire Millennial generation was abletovote.Bythisstage,thegroupconsistedof31%ofallvoters.

True,notallAustralianMillennialsarefavourabletowardssocialism.However,thesignificantportion

whoseetheideologyinapositivelightwilllikelycontinuetoinfluencethisevolutioninvoterpolarity.

Australia’spoliticalpartiesalsoappearmovingfurthertowardstheleft.Accordingtovoter’sperceptionsinthe Australian Election Study,18Laborhasmoved7%moretotheleftthanwhenthestudybegan(SeeFigure11).VoterssurveyedbelievethattheGreenshavealsomovedtotheleftby21%.TheLiberalParty was even perceived to have moved 3% to the leftsince1996,shiftingbymorethan10%sinceitshighest‘right-wing’scorein2004.

Figure 11; Australian Election Study - Voters rating of party polarity

Source: Australian Election Study: Trends in Australian Political Opinion, pp. 65. (Score scale inverted from a 0 to 10 rating to a 0 to -10 rating for graphical purposes. 0 = Far Left, -5 = Centre, -10 = Far Right)

A matter of ignoranceThere is strong evidence to suggest Millennials are contributingtoaleftwardsshiftacrossthewesternworld.Amajorpartofthismoveislikelybeingdrivenbygenerallyfavourableattitudestowardssocialismandunfavourableopinionsofcapitalism.For the older generations who lived through the ColdWar,theseattitudesmayseemhardtofathom.However,Millennialswerelargelyunaffectedbytheglobalimpactsofseveraldecadesofcommunist/socialist oppression. Consequentially, many may be understandablyunawareofitslegacy.

Indeed, our CIS/YouGov Galaxy polling reveals that most Australian Millennials have a poor awareness ofsomeofsocialism’smostinfamoushistoricalfigures(SeeFigure12).Ofthosepolled,morethan

half(51%)didn’tknowwhoChinesecommunistrevolutionary Mao Zedong was. Only 21% were familiarwithhim.NotonlywasMaoperhapsthemostimportant leader in Asia in the past century, he was alsoresponsibleforbetween37-45milliondeathsduringthefamineassociatedwithhis‘GreatLeapForward’and‘CulturalRevolution’.19

Similarly,42%ofAustralianMillennialsweren’tawareatallofVladimirLenin,theBolshevikrevolutionary,fatherofmoderncommunismandinauguralpremieroftheSovietUnion.Whilemorepeople(34%)werefamiliarwithWorldWarIISovietleaderJosephStalinamanresponsibleforthedeathsofupto43millionpeople approximatelytwo-thirdseitherdidn’tknowhimorwerenotfamiliarwithhisbloodyhistory.20

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AdolfHitler,thefascistleaderofNaziGermany,servesasaninterestingpointofcontrast.Nearlythree-quarters(73%)ofAustralianMillennialswerefamiliarwiththedictatorandfatherfigureoftheHolocaust.Just5%didn’tknowwhohewas.Hitlerwasaproductofthesameeraasmanyofhistory’smostnotorioussocialistleaders.However,hisstoryhasbeentoldfarmorewidely.Hitler’siconicmoustache,swastikaandNazisalutearesomeofthemostrecognisableimagesintheworld.ThehorrorsofplaceslikeAuschwitzareforeverengrainedinourmindsasexampleofhumanityatitscruellest.Bycontrast,howmanywouldbefamiliarwiththehundredsofSovietgulags the slave labour camps into which up to 50 million people were incarcerated andwhichoperatedfordecades?

Figure 12: Familiarity with major historical figures

Source: CIS/YouGov Galaxy Poll. Full breakdown available in Appendix A, Table 5

Source: Rummel ‘Death by Government’ pp. 8. Note: Estimated figures vary significantly across sources

Table 1: 20th Century mass murderers

Dictator Ideology Country Years Deaths Caused

Joseph Stalin Socialist/Communist USSR 1929-53 42.7 million

Mao Zedong Socialist/Communist China 1923-76 37.8million

VladimirLenin Socialist/Communist USSR 1917-24 4 million

Pol Pot Socialist/Communist Cambodia 1968-87 2.4 million

JosipBrozTito Socialist/Communist Yugoslavia 1941-87 1.2 million

Socialist/Communist Total - - 1900-1990 88.1million

AdolfHitler Fascist Germany 1933-45 20.9 million

ChiangKai-shek Militarist/Fascist China 1921-48 10.2 million

TojoHideki Militarist/Fascist Japan 1941-45 4 million

Fascist & Militarist/Fascist total - - 1900-1990 35.1 million

BritishauthorandcommentatorJamesBartholomewargues that society has a duty to educate the younger generationsonthebrutallegacyofsocialism.MuchliketheHolocaustmemorialsthatcanbefoundinSydneyandLondon,hesuggests:“Weshouldcreateapermanentreminderofwhatcommunismdidtohumanity and could potentially do again.”21 School history curriculums should ensure that youth are awareofsocialismsdeadlyimpactonourAsianneighbours. Meanwhile,greatereducationonthepracticalfailingsoftheideologyasaneconomicsystemcouldalsoserve as a reminder that economic prosperity is bestobtainedthroughthepowerofthefreemarket.All economies that have enjoyed growth and have broadenedprosperityhavedonesothroughfreetradeandfreemarkets.Regulationandhightaxationaretheenemyofprosperity,andprosperityistheonlymeansofprovidingthepublicservicesthatsocialistsaresofondofclaimingtheyprize.

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ConclusionThefindingsoftheCIS/YouGovGalaxyopinionpollgiveatellinginsightintotheattitudesofAustralianMillennials.Whileastrongmajorityexpressingafavourableopiniontowardssocialismhardlymeansthecountryisonthevergeofaclassrevolution,thetrendmayhaveasignificanteffectasMillennialsmoveintopositionsofpowerincomingyears.

Importantly,beliefsaboutgovernmentspendingandthenatureofcapitalismcouldhavemajorpolicyimplications.Ashasbeendemonstrated,theinfluenceofMillennialshasgrownindirectcorrelationwiththeelectorate’sincreasedfavourabilityformoreinterventionintheeconomy,andsupportforariseinthe nation’s social services bill. Issues such as house prices and low wage growth will only increase the calls forchange.

Such trends are also evident internationally, and are partofaclearshiftinthepolarityofyoungvoters.Historically,theyouthvotehasgenerallycorrelatedwiththeoverallsentimentoftheelectorate.However,asMillennialshavecometoconsistofthemajorityoftheyouthcontingent,youngervotershavemovedsignificantlytowardsthepoliticalleft.

To address the growing sympathy towards socialism, it is essential to educate Millennials andfuturegenerationsonthe20thcentury’sfailedexperimentationwiththeideology.Foravarietyofreasons,youtharefarlessawareofsocialism’sroleinsomeofthegreatestcatastrophesinhumanhistory and have begun to view it benignly. This is no minor problem: one day such people may exercise a vote to impose such appalling doctrines, and their collateral damage, on our society.

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Tab

le 1

- O

vera

ll vi

ew o

f so

cial

ism

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

aTo

tal

Mal

eFe

mal

e1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

Subtotalunfavourable

18.00%

21.0

0%16.00%

22.0

0%17

.00%

15.0

0%14

.00%

18.00%

21.0

0%19

.00%

18.00%

19.0

0%22

.00%

15.0

0%18.00%

19.0

0%Mostlyunfavourable

6.00%

7.00

%5.

00%

7.00

%6.00%

5.00

%4.

00%

6.00%

7.00

%6.00%

6.00%

8.00%

9.00

%4.

00%

6.00%

6.00%

Somewhatunfavourable

12.0

0%13

.00%

11.0

0%16.00%

11.0

0%10

.00%

10.0

0%12

.00%

14.0

0%13

.00%

12.0

0%12

.00%

13.0

0%12

.00%

12.0

0%13

.00%

Subtotalfavourable

58.00%

62.00%

54.0

0%51

.00%

58.00%

64.00%

56.00%

52.0

0%63.00%

63.00%

54.0

0%58.00%

56.00%

56.00%

60.00%

54.0

0%Somewhatfavourable

41.0

0%42

.00%

41.0

0%38.00%

40.0

0%46.00%

41.0

0%40

.00%

43.0

0%47

.00%

35.0

0%48.00%

40.0

0%38.00%

42.0

0%41

.00%

Mostlyfavourable

16.00%

20.0

0%13

.00%

13.0

0%18.00%

18.00%

15.0

0%12

.00%

20.0

0%16.00%

18.00%

12.0

0%16.00%

18.00%

18.00%

13.0

0%D

on’t K

now

24.0

0%30

.00%

30.0

0%27

.00%

25.0

0%21

.00%

30.0

0%30

.00%

17.0

0%18.00%

29.0

0%23

.00%

22.0

0%28.00%

22.0

0%27

.00%

Tab

le 2

- O

rdin

ary

wo

rker

s in

Aus

tral

ia a

re w

ors

e o

ff n

ow t

han

they

wer

e fo

rty

year

s ag

o

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

aTo

tal

Mal

eFe

mal

e1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

Agr

ee62.00%

59.0

0%64.00%

61.00%

60.00%

64.00%

67.00%

60.00%

61.00%

69.00%

60.00%

56.00%

67.00%

53.0

0%62.00%

63.00%

Dis

agre

e32

.00%

34.0

0%29

.00%

32.0

0%33

.00%

30.0

0%26.00%

33.0

0%34

.00%

27.0

0%30

.00%

35.0

0%29

.00%

43.0

0%32

.00%

30.0

0%D

on’t K

now

6.00%

7.00

%6.00%

6.00%

7.00

%6.00%

7.00

%8.00%

5.00

%4.

00%

10.0

0%9.

00%

4.00

%4.

00%

6.00%

7.00

%

Tab

le 3

- A

llow

ing

fo

r in

flat

ion,

Aus

tral

ia s

pen

ds

less

on

educ

atio

n an

d h

ealt

h th

an w

e d

id t

en y

ears

ag

o

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

aTo

tal

Mal

eFe

mal

e1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

Agr

ee56.00%

57.0

0%55

.00%

57.0

0%59

.00%

53.0

0%60.00%

56.00%

55.0

0%59

.00%

53.0

0%56.00%

59.0

0%53

.00%

55.0

0%61.00%

Dis

agre

e30

.00%

30.0

0%29

.00%

26.00%

27.0

0%36.00%

26.00%

26.00%

34.0

0%28.00%

31.0

0%31

.00%

24.0

0%36.00%

32.0

0%25

.00%

Don

’t K

now

14.0

0%12

.00%

15.0

0%17

.00%

14.0

0%11

.00%

14.0

0%18.00%

11.0

0%12

.00%

17.0

0%13

.00%

17.0

0%11

.00%

13.0

0%15

.00%

Tab

le 4

- C

apit

alis

m h

as f

aile

d a

nd g

over

nmen

t sh

oul

d e

xerc

ise

mo

re c

ont

rol o

f th

e ec

ono

my

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

aTo

tal

Mal

eFe

mal

e1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

Agr

ee59

.00%

60.00%

57.0

0%57

.00%

61.00%

59.0

0%63.00%

59.0

0%57

.00%

62.00%

54.0

0%58.00%

65.00%

53.0

0%56.00%

64.00%

Dis

agre

e25

.00%

28.00%

23.0

0%25

.00%

23.0

0%28.00%

18.00%

20.0

0%33

.00%

25.0

0%27

.00%

28.00%

21.0

0%29

.00%

26.00%

19.0

0%D

on’t K

now

16.00%

12.0

0%20

.00%

18.00%

16.00%

14.0

0%19

.00%

22.0

0%11

.00%

14.0

0%19

.00%

15.0

0%15

.00%

18.00%

16.00%

17.0

0%

Ap

pen

dix

A

Page 17: Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching ... · Millennials are turning 38 in 2018, and are quickly moving into more influential positions in politics, business and

13

Tab

le 5

- L

evel

of

fam

iliar

ity

wit

h p

eop

le

Mao

Zed

ong

Jose

ph S

talin

AdolfHitler

VladimirLenin

I’mfamiliarwiththem

21.0

0%34

.00%

73.0

0%26.00%

Iknowthembutnotfamiliar

28.00%

34.0

0%21

.00%

32.0

0%Idon’tknowthem

51.0

0%32

.00%

5.00

%42

.00%

Tab

le 6

- L

evel

of

fam

iliar

ity

wit

h p

eop

le -

Mao

Zed

ong

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

aTo

tal

Mal

eFe

mal

e1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

I’mfamiliarwiththem

21.0

0%28.00%

14.0

0%21

.00%

21.0

0%22

.00%

13.0

0%13

.00%

30.0

0%25

.00%

24.0

0%18.00%

13.0

0%16.00%

25.0

0%14

.00%

Iknowthembutnotfamiliar

28.00%

31.0

0%25

.00%

28.00%

28.00%

28.00%

20.0

0%26.00%

34.0

0%30

.00%

33.0

0%28.00%

31.0

0%35

.00%

30.0

0%23

.00%

Idon’tknowthem

51.0

0%41

.00%

60.00%

51.0

0%51

.00%

49.0

0%67.00%

61.00%

36.00%

45.0

0%54

.00%

54.0

0%56.00%

48.00%

45.0

0%63.00%

Tab

le 7

- L

evel

of

fam

iliar

ity

wit

h p

eop

le -

Jo

sep

h St

alin

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

aTo

tal

Mal

eFe

mal

e1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

I’mfamiliarwiththem

34.0

0%42

.00%

27.0

0%36.00%

32.0

0%36.00%

27.0

0%29

.00%

42.0

0%33

.00%

33.0

0%38.00%

34.0

0%40

.00%

37.0

0%29

.00%

Iknowthembutnotfamiliar

34.0

0%34

.00%

33.0

0%33

.00%

34.0

0%34

.00%

28.00%

33.0

0%37

.00%

35.0

0%33

.00%

30.0

0%38.00%

36.00%

36.00%

27.0

0%Idon’tknowthem

32.0

0%25

.00%

39.0

0%32

.00%

35.0

0%30

.00%

45.0

0%38.00%

21.0

0%32

.00%

34.0

0%32

.00%

28.00%

24.0

0%27

.00%

44.0

0%

Tab

le 8

- L

evel

of

fam

iliar

ity

wit

h p

eop

le -

Ad

olf

Hit

ler

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

aTo

tal

Mal

eFe

mal

e1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

I’mfamiliarwiththem

73.0

0%73

.00%

73.0

0%72

.00%

73.0

0%75

.00%

69.00%

78.00%

73.0

0%70

.00%

71.0

0%75

.00%

75.0

0%82.00%

72.0

0%75

.00%

Iknowthembutnotfamiliar

21.0

0%21

.00%

22.0

0%23

.00%

21.0

0%20

.00%

22.0

0%18.00%

23.0

0%26.00%

21.0

0%19

.00%

21.0

0%14

.00%

22.0

0%20

.00%

Idon’tknowthem

5.00

%6.00%

5.00

%5.

00%

6.00%

5.00

%8.00%

4.00

%4.

00%

4.00

%8.00%

6.00%

4.00

%4.

00%

6.00%

4.00

%

Tab

le 9

- L

evel

of

fam

iliar

ity

wit

h p

eop

le -

Vla

dim

ir L

enin

Gen

der

Bir

th Y

ear

Edu

cati

onS

tate

Are

a

Tota

lM

ale

Fem

ale

1980-85

1986-901991-96No

Tert

iary

Tafeor

Tech

nica

lU

nive

rsity

NSW

VIC

QLD

SAWA

Urb

anRe

gion

al

I’mfamiliarwiththem

26.00%

32.0

0%20

.00%

31.0

0%22

.00%

25.0

0%17

.00%

22.0

0%34

.00%

29.0

0%26.00%

23.0

0%25

.00%

28.00%

29.0

0%19

.00%

Iknowthembutnotfamiliar

32.0

0%32

.00%

32.0

0%34

.00%

31.0

0%31

.00%

29.0

0%30

.00%

35.0

0%32

.00%

31.0

0%33

.00%

38.00%

34.0

0%34

.00%

28.00%

Idon’tknowthem

42.0

0%36.00%

48.00%

35.0

0%47

.00%

44.0

0%54

.00%

48.00%

32.0

0%39

.00%

43.0

0%45

.00%

37.0

0%39

.00%

37.0

0%53

.00%

Page 18: Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching ... · Millennials are turning 38 in 2018, and are quickly moving into more influential positions in politics, business and

14

1 Pipes, Richard. Communism: A History. Random HousePublishingGroup,2001,pp.158

2 Tang, Edmund. Australia Has Experienced the Longest Economic Growth among the major developed world. Austrade, 29 March 2017. https://www.austrade.gov.au/News/Economic-analysis/australia-has-experienced-the-longest-economic-growth-among-major-developed-world(Accessed31May2018)

3 2016ABSCensusData

4 Manpower Group. Millennial Careers: 2020 Vision. ManpowerGroup,2016,pp.3

5 Carl,Noah.WhyDoAcademicsLeanLeft?.AdamSmith Institute, 2017, pp. 1

6 Hugo,Graeme.What Is Happening in Rural and Regional Populations?. The Regional Institute, 2012. http://www.regional.org.au/au/countrytowns/keynote/hugo.htm#P1974_43191 (Accessed31May2018)

7 Angus, Chris. NSW Economic Update Summer 2018.NSWParliamentaryResearchService,January2018,pp.2&CommSec.State of the States - Overview of NSW April 2018. CommonwealthBank,2018,Availableat:https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/Campaigns_Native/stateofstates/April2018/NSW_State_of_the_States_April2018.pdf (Accessed 1 June2018),pp.1

8 Trading Economics. Australia Disposable Personal Income | 1959-2018. Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/disposable-personal-income(Accessed5June2018)

9 AustralianInstituteofHealthandWelfare.Health Expenditure Australia 2007-08. Australian Government, 2009, pp. 21

10 AustralianInstituteofHealthandWelfare.Health Expenditure Australia 2015-16. Australian Government, 2017, pp. vii

11 Productivity Commission. National Education Evidence Base(DraftReport).AustralianGovernment,2016,pp.23

12 Asthana,Anushka,JessicaElgot,andRowenaMason. Jeremy Corbyn: Neoliberalism Is Broken and We Are Now the Centre Ground. The Guardian, September 27, 2017, Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/

sep/27/jeremy-corbyn-promises-rent-controls-and-clampdown-on-gentrification (Accessed 1 June 2018)

13 Roberts,Carys,andMathewLawrence.Wealth in the Twenty-First Century: Inequalities and Drivers. InstitutionforPublicPolicyResearch,October2017, pp. 9

14 Sayers, Freddie. ‘Berners’ and ‘Corbynistas’: New Coalitions of the Left. YouGov, February 15,2016.Availableat:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/15/berners-and-corybnistas-new-coalitions-left/(Accessed1June2018)

15 Graham, Matthew Moore and Sarah. Champagne Socialists‘NotasLeftWingasTheyThinkTheyAre. The Telegraph, 14 July 2010. Available at: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/7887888/Champagne-socialists-not-as-left-wing-as-they-think-they-are.html (Accessed 31May2018)

16 Parker,George. Conservatives Secure Stunning Victory. Financial Times, 7 May 2015. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/7ec06b42-f4f1-11e4-abb5-00144feab7de(Accessed31May2018)

17 Rudgard,Olivia,andAshleyKirk.YouthquakeIs2017’sWordoftheYearafterJeremyCorbyn’sElection Campaign. The Telegraph, 15 December 2017. Available at: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/15/youthquake-2017s-word-year-jeremy-corbyns-election-campaign/ (Accessed 1 June2018)

18 SchoolofPoliticsandInternationalRelations,andANUCollegeofArts&SocialSciences.Trends in Australian Political Opinon: Results from the Australian Election Study 1987-2016. Australian NationalUniversity,2018,pp.65

19 Dikötter,Frank.Mao’s Great Famine: The History of China’s Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958-62. BloomsburyPublishing,2010,pp.333

20 Rummel, R. J. Death by Government: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900.Routledge,2018, pp.8

21 Bartholomew,James.BritainNeedsaMuseumofCommunistTerror.TheSpectator,5March2016.Availableat:https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/britain-needs-a-museum-of-communist-terror/(Accessed30May2018)

Endnotes

Page 19: Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching ... · Millennials are turning 38 in 2018, and are quickly moving into more influential positions in politics, business and

15

Opinion Polling on Australian Expenditure

ParliamentofAustralia.Twenty Years of Opinion Polling.Availableat:https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0304/04rp13(Accessed30May2018)

ABC.SpendingPublicMoney:HowDoYourViewsStackUp?.ABCNews,24October2016.Availableat:http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-24/australian-public-expenditure-anu-poll/7959486(Accessed30May2018)

YouGov United States Survey

Jordan,William.Democrats More Divided on Socialism.YouGov,28January2016.Availableat:https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/01/28/democrats-remain-divided-socialism(Accessed30May2018)

YouGov United Kingdom Survey

Dahlgreen,Will.British People Keener on Socialism than Capitalism.YouGov,February23,2016.Availableat:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/british-people-view-socialism-more-favourably-capi/.(Accessed31May2018)

Page 20: Millennials and socialism: Australian youth are lurching ... · Millennials are turning 38 in 2018, and are quickly moving into more influential positions in politics, business and

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POLICY Paper 7 (PP7) • ISSN: 2209-2447 • ISBN: 978-1-925744-23-1            

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This publication is available from The Centre for Independent Studies. Visit www.cis.org.au.

About the Authors

Tom Switzer TomSwitzeristheExecutiveDirectorattheCIS.HeisaformerseniorfellowattheUniversity of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre (2009-17), a former editor oftheSpectatorAustralia(2009-14),seniorfederalLiberalleaderadviser/speechwriter(2008),opinioneditorofTheAustralian,(2001-08),editorialwriterattheAustralianFinancialReview(1998-01)andassistanteditorattheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteinWashington,DC(1995-98).HehaswrittenforthelikesoftheWallStreetJournal,NewYorkTimes,WashingtonPost,TheSpectatorandFinancialTimes.HehasalsoappearedonCNN,CNBC,Bloomberg,AlJazeera,SkyNews,SBS,Seven,Nine,TenandABCradioandtelevision.HehostsBetweentheLinesonABC’sRadioNational.

Charles Jacobs Charles Jacobs is a Policy Analyst at the CIS. His research on the CommonwealthIndigenousProcurementPolicyhasseenhimconsultedbytheNSWStateGovernmentand Canadian Defence Force on the development of their own minority set-asidepolicies.HehasalsowrittenonthetopicforlikesoftheAustralianFinancialReview,ABCOnlineandSpectatorFlatWhiteandcommentedonpolicyissuesforstationssuchas ABC Radio, National Indigenous Radio Service and Radio National. Charles alsoworksasaStatisticianforFoxSportsAustralia.