migration in the current and future eu demography - statistical facts and tools for monitoring the...

Eurostat

Migration in thecurrent and future EU demography

Statistical facts and tools for monitoring the preparedness to demographic changes

Giampaolo LANZIERI

Eurostat

How many migrants in/to the EU-28?

G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future EU demography - Statistical facts and tools

Flows in 2013 Measure EU-28 Sum MSs

Immigration Country of previous usual residence 1.7 3.4

Emigration Country of next usual residence 1.4 2.8

Net migration Difference immigration - emigration 0.3 0.6

Net migration + statistical adjustment Difference total change – natural change 1.7 1.7

In million, including unknowns

In million, including unknowns and stateless. Residents abroad before 1980 missing for 14 MSs.

Stocks on 1.1.2014 Measure EU-28 Sum MSs

Foreign-born persons Country of birth 34.4 52.3

Foreign citizens Citizenship 19.8 34.1

Formerly resident abroad Ever resided abroad (censuses 2011) --- >59.1

Impact of mirror errors

Impact of adjustments

EUI Conference on Demography, Florence, 5 February 2016

4

Migration measures and age structure

Country of birth Citizenship



5

Eurostat

Migrants stocks on 1.1.2014



6

Note: foreign-born including unknown, foreign citizens including unknown and stateless.

Eurostat

How many "EU-born" migrants?


Share on total population on 1.1.2014


7

Eurostat

The overtaking by migration


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

x100

0 per

sons

Population change by component, EU-28, 1960-2014

Crude rate of natural change of population Crude rate of net migration plus statistical adjustment Crude rate of total population change


9

Eurostat

Migration turnover



10

Crude rates x1000 in 2013

Eurostat

Merging populations


Source: Lanzieri (2012): “Merging populations”. Eurostat Statistics in Focus 29/2012.


11

Eurostat

Contribution of migrants to fertility


DE missing.

Share of live births from foreign-born mother in 2013


12

Eurostat

Migrant background in working ages



13

% persons 15-64 with foreign background (1st + 2nd generation migrants) in 2014

Source: EU-LFS ad-hoc module on 'Migration and Labour Market' (2014). Note: DK, DE, IE and NL missing.

Eurostat

Growing migratory pressure


Population 25-29

years old

Source: UNPD (2015): “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision”

estimates projections


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Eurostat

Projected migration impact in the EU

Assuming about 44 million persons for net migration by 2050…

With migration

Without migration Difference

Total population (in million) 526.5 466.4 +59.2 (+13%)

Working-age population (15-64) 299.0 255.1 +43.9 (+17%)

Births (from 2014) (in million) 185.4 167.8 +17.6 (+11%)

Proportion 65+ 28.1% 31.4% -3.3 pp

Median age 46.2 49.5 -3.3

Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) x100 49.4 57.4 -8 pp



15

Source: EUROPOP2013.

Eurostat

A changing population composition


Source: Lanzieri (2011): “Fewer, older and multicultural?”. Eurostat Methodologies and Working Papers.


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Eurostat

Possible shrinking of the workforce

Projected changefrom 2014 to 2050of the population15-64 years old



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Eurostat

The "tornado" of ageing



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Average increase: 10 p.p.


Eurostat

Comparative ageing: EU vs Far East


EU Member States

Japan

Korea

Source: Lanzieri (2014): "A Breakdown by Citizenship of the Population Projections of Korea 2010-2060". Research Report.

observed projected


19

% persons aged 65+

Eurostat

Ageing acceleration


Source: Lanzieri (2011): "The greying of the baby boomers". Eurostat Statistics in Focus 23/2011.


20

Eurostat

Some key demographic challenges

• On global scale:• (Fears of) sustainability of overpopulation• Speed and variety of population growth across

world regions

• Particularly in Europe (but not only):• Ageing populations / incoming acceleration• Diversification populations composition /

integration• Possible shrinking of population in working ages



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Eurostat

Are we getting prepared?

• 'Preparedness': implementation of policies coping with demographic changes

• (Comparable) Measures of preparedness?• Different levels of information sources:

• Databases of policies: cross-country analyses on the pace and type of measures

• Sets of selected indicators: relative positioning of countries

• Analytical reports: projected impact on specific domains of interest

• Monitoring -> regular updatingEUI Conference on Demography, Florence, 5 February 2016


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Eurostat

Demographic challenges and examples of monitoring tools



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Challenges Monitoring tools Periodicity Time coverage

Ageing Ageing Report Every 3 years (latest reports issued in 2009, 2012, 2015)

Impact to 2060

Active Ageing Index (AAI) Every 2 years 2010, 2012, 2014

Integration Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX)

Around 4 years (reports issued in 2004, 2007, 2011, 2015)

2007-2014

EU-LFS ad-hoc module on migrants

Around 6 years 2008, 2014

Labour supply shortage

LABREF - LABour market REForms / Immigration

Annual update 2000-2013

Eurostat

Proactivity in labour market policies


Source: LABREF database, DG EMPL, European Commission. Graph 1 on website. Accessed on 11.1.2016.


25

Average number of labour market measures by policy domain, EU28

Eurostat

Policy measures in labour migration



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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

SE AT DK DE IT EL PT ES BG FI LT NL UK CY IE PL SK BE CZ EE FR SI HU RO LV LU MT

Decreasing No change Increasing

Source: own computation on data from LABREF database, DG EMPL, European Commission. Accessed on 11.1.2016.Note: HR not included.

Increasing (48): tightening regulatory restrictionsDecreasing (116) : loosening regulatory restrictionsNo change (2): no direction of the policy measure

Total number of measures 2000-13: 166

Eurostat

Preparedness to labour shortages?



28

Note: LU out of frame. Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and LABREF.

Example

Eurostat

Preparedness to ageing



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Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and Zaidi et al (2014) "Active Ageing Index for 28 EU countries".

Example

Eurostat

Preparedness to integration



30

Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and Huddleston et al (2015) "Migrant Integration Policy Index 2015". Note: LU out of frame.

Example

Eurostat

An aggregated measure?



31

Hypothetical example of a non-weighted‘index of preparedness to demographic changes’

Eurostat

Geographical pattern of preparedness



32

Example based on a non-weighted aggregated index (max=1.0)

Would you like to know more about? You are welcome to contact me: [email protected] visit our website/database: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database



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