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MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 12

Controls on Climate ChangeProfessor Menglin Jin

Outline:Outline: IPCC CA Efforts on Energy Kyoto Treat

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-

frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to

proceed in a sustainable manner’

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Figure: Courtesy of IPCC

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisWGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers (SPM)Drafted by a team of 59Approved ‘sentence by sentence’by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)

14 chapters881 pages120 Lead Authors515 Contributing Authors4621 References quoted

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IPCC Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment Report

IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing

(cooling)(cooling)““The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence

on global climate”on global climate”(IPCC) 1997(IPCC) 1997

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human

activitiesactivities .“.“ (IPCC),(IPCC), 20012001

(IPCC) 2007

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IPCC Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment Report

IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing

(cooling)(cooling)““The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence

on global climate”on global climate”(IPCC) 1997(IPCC) 1997

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human

activitiesactivities .“.“ (IPCC),(IPCC), 20012001

The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the

mid-20th century.mid-20th century.(IPCC) 2007

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The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures sincethe mid-20th century.”

Human Responsibility forClimate Change

Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

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Model Sensitivity

Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems.

They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2

– This means that different models give different answers to the same problem

– Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.

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Model Sensitivity

Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems.

They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2

–

– Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.

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Emission Scenarios

SRES (special report on emission scenarios)

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Scenarios

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CO2 concentrations (amount)

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Future Predictions: Temperature

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Notes on Temperature Projections

Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from ~1.4°C to ~5.8°C.

Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.

Each bar on right represent range of warming produced – by models of differing sensitivies for a

specific scenario.

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Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

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Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

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Sea Level

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Sea Level Rise

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

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1. What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas?

2. What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning?

3. What percentage of transportation energy use comes from coal?

4. If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely source of energy?

5. Where does most residential energy come from?

Questions

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Obviously, one of the main issues related to climate change is the burning of fossil fuels

Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for energy are central to the challenges of climate change.

Energy and Climate Change

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Tons of CO2 emitted per person

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US COUS CO22 Emissions Emissions

Total emissions ~ Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons5,788.5 million metric tons ~ 22 metric tons per person ~ 22 metric tons per person

Industry: 35% Industry: 35% Transportation: 33%Transportation: 33% Residences: 18%Residences: 18% Commercial: 14%Commercial: 14%

1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)

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Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per monthElectricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per monthAirline Miles flown  147 miles per monthTotal:

Latest estimate ~ Kyoto allowance (for US):

~ To stabilize climate (550ppm)

Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)

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Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per monthElectricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per monthAirline Miles flown  147 miles per monthTotal:

Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2 Kyoto allowance (for US):

~11,000 pounds To stabilize climate (550ppm)

4,700 pounds

Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)

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Mitigation of climate changeMitigation of climate change

Mitigation: Mitigation: – Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative

environmental impacts. environmental impacts.

Mitigation can includeMitigation can include: : • avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action;avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action;

• minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; magnitude of the action;

• rectifying the impact by repairing or rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environmentrestoring the affected environment

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Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

What signals would we expect from a warmer world?What signals would we expect from a warmer world?– Higher average temperatureHigher average temperature– Higher maximum temperaturesHigher maximum temperatures– Higher minimum temperaturesHigher minimum temperatures– More precipitationMore precipitation– Higher sea levelHigher sea level– etcetc

What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?century?

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European communitytargets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levelsThese amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. over the five-year period 2008-2012.

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 andon 11 December 1997 and entered into force on entered into force on 16 February 2005 16 February 2005

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The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol A United Nations sponsored effort:A United Nations sponsored effort:

– Calls for Calls for reductionsreductions of greenhouse gas emissions by of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countriesindustrialized countries of of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. .

– The Protocol will go into force after The Protocol will go into force after 1.1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries.The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries.2.2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse

gas emissions.gas emissions.– Current status:Current status:

156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO22.. US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of

COCO22 emitted) emitted) Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks

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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture

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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy–

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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol Aim:

– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’–

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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’– Encourage ‘good practices’

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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’– Encourage ‘good practices’– Cut GHG from aviation

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Kyoto TargetsKyoto Targets

Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990

Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).

Calculated as an average – over the five-year period of 2008-12.

Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs

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HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons

PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful greenhouse gas emitted during the production of aluminumPFC

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Kyoto TargetsKyoto Targets

National targets– European Union - 8% below 1990 levels– USA - 7% below 1990– Japan - 6% below 1990– Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels)– Australia 8% over 1990 levels) – Developing countries (no target)

China, India etc.

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Kyoto Targets: Developing Kyoto Targets: Developing countriescountries

The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:

1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases –

2. Per capita emissions in developing countries –

3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs.

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Kyoto Targets: Developing Kyoto Targets: Developing countriescountries

The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:

1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – has originated in developed countries;

2. Per capita emissions in developing countries – are still relatively low;

3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs.

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The Kyoto Mechanisms

Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.

The Kyoto mechanisms are: Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"  Clean development mechanism (CDM) Joint implementation (JI).

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Kyoto Protocol MechanismsKyoto Protocol Mechanisms

Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012

Countries can meet their commitments together

Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.

Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets

Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

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Emissions TradingEmissions Trading

Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may

purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.

This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.

Countries also receive carbon credits through

– –

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Emissions TradingEmissions Trading

Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may

purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.

This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.

Countries also receive carbon credits through – clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) – carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)

"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first "We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America" things first are the people who live in America"

- President Bush- President Bush

Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol?Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol?Economic burdenEconomic burdenNo limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)Protocol is not going to help muchProtocol is not going to help much

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Solutions - government

Kyoto Protocol

California potential leader

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Solutions - personal Transportation Home Food Consumption

www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint

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Four R’s

1. Rethink

2. Reduce

3. Reuse

4. Recycle

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Report Issued in 2004

Sections include:– Climate projections– Sea levels– Extreme heat– Health impacts– Water resource – Agriculture and

vegetation

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What is Heat Wave?

A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather

may be accompanied by high humidity

Definition recommended by WMOThe definition recommended by the World Meteorological

Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F), the normal period being 1961 - 1990.

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Class Participation

By 2050, which city has the longest heat wave days? Why?

What are the differences between the low emission and high emission cases in terms of heat wave days by 2090 for city Riverside? How about city LA?

How many people may die due to heat wave in SF in 2050 and 2090?

Your name_________Your name_________

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Climate change and CaliforniaAverage Temperature:

Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090

Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090)1. Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise.2. Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes

impact most vulnerable3. Water resources: Total water, but early runoff

from Sierras costly to adapt.4. Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops

industries.