Climate change vulnerability

and adaptation assessment for

agriculture

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Study Bangkok 28 March 2013

ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management

Olivier Joffre Dang Kieu Nhan

Bun Chantrea Jorma Koponen

1a

Contents

1. Overview of the methodology 2. Baseline – Agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin 3. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability

Assessment i. Changes in Basin-wide crop suitability ii. Changes in Hot Spot Crop yields iii. Vulnerability assessment for key crops in hot spots

4. Adaptation Options

2

Overview of the

methodology

3a

Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment process

EXPOSURE SENSITIVTY X = IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY / VULNERABILITY =

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AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BASELINE

Key Crop Species

Farming systems characterization

MEKONG HYDROCLIMATE MODELLING & ASSESSMENT

Crop Yield modelling

Crop suitability modelling

Sector assessment

Changes in climate & hydrology

Expert Consultation

Review of Past

experience

ADAPTATION

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2 3

4

5

6

7

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Basin wide assessment approach • Identified 8 hotspot provinces

representing each of the 12 ecozones • Developed farming system profiles for

each ecozone – Subsistence farming (small-scale) – Commercial farming (small & large

scale) • Identified key crops for subsistence &

commercial agriculture – Rice – Cassava – Maize – Rubber – Coffee – Sugarcane – Soya

1. Chiang Rai 2. Sakon Nakhon 3. Khammoun 4. Champassak 5. Mondolkiri 6. Gia Lai 7. Kampong Thom 8. Kien Giang

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Agriculture

Baseline Assessment

6a

Agriculture in the LMB - Livelihoods:

- 65 million people - 45% of population are considered poor - 70% of population’s livelihoods rely on

agriculture

- Changes in productivity of subsistence and commercial cropping systems will influence:

- Local livelihoods - Rural and national economies - Regional food security

7

Rapid growth in LMB agriculture

• Agriculture is a dynamic sector. • The production of the major crops has doubled in the last 20

years, primarily due to: • intensification of production, with higher yields rather

than larger cultivated areas. • Some new areas for cultivation are opening in Lao PDR,

the Vietnamese Central Highlands and Cambodia

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Agriculture in the LMB remains reliant on rainfall • Key staple crops are predominately rain-fed, • Other emerging commercial crops (maize, soya or cassava) are also mostly

rain-fed. • LMB agriculture is highly sensitive on climate and especially on rainfall

frequency and distribution.

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Source: MRC 2011

Farming systems in the LMB 1. Rice-based farming systems

• Rainfed rice (75% of total agricultural area) • Upland rainfed rice • Lowland rainfed rice

• Irrigated rice 2. Other annual crops: vegetables,

maize, soya, cassava, sugarcane, etc.

3. Perennial crops 1. Industrial crops: black pepper,

coffee, rubber, etc. 2. Fruits

Annual

Rice

Perennial

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LMB Farming systems

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Intensive Rice Rubber Coffee Sugarcane Soya

Rainfed rice Cassava Maize

Lowland rainfed & irrigated rice

Subsistence Commercial

Smallholder Small-Large holder Shifting Plantation

Trend

• Diverse growing conditions have led to the development of diverse farming systems

• General historic trend towards larger farm holds and commercial farms

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Provinces Ecozones Rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugarcane Coffee Rubber

Chiang rai High-Mid-Low, Floodplains

X X X X

Sakon Nakhon Mid & Low elevation

X X X X

Khammouane High & Low elevation

X X X X X

Champasak High-Low, Floodplains

X X X X X

Mondulkiri Mid & Low elevation

X X X X

Kampong Thom

Low elevation, Floodplains

X X X X

Gia Lai High & Low elevation

X X X X X X

Kien Giang Delta swamp X

Key crop distribution in hot spot provinces

Baseline assessment – Summary findings Crops Systems Locations Trends

(area) Existing

problems Growth drivers and

Impact Upland rice Subsistence High-mid

elevation Increase

(Lao PDR) Drought

Flash Flood • Population growth • Urbanization (labour,

food demand, land and water use)

• Market demands and foreign investments (animal feed, bio-fuel, rubber, etc.)

• Nation food security & export policies

• Natural resource degradation and environmental changes

Lowland rice Subsistence – Commercial

Mid & Low

elevation & delta

Decline Rainfed

(Increase irrigated)

Drought, flood, salinity intrusion

Annual commercial crops

(Subsistence) – Commercial

High-low elevation

Changing with crops and areas

Drought, soil erosion, flood

Perennial industrial crops

Commercial High-mid elevation

Increase Drought, groundwater

depletion, soil erosion

Fruits Commercial Delta Stable Flooding, salinity intrusion

Basin wide Crop

suitability assessment

14a

Climate suitability model

• LUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool (IRRI) • Evaluates the suitability of each land unit (grid cell) for a single

type of land use type (single crop). • For each location suitability is based on climatological

characteristics such as rainfall, drought and temperature • Each crop has its special requirements • Suitability is expressed with a scale of 0 - 100 and transformed

into suitablity classes

Crop Tolerances

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Crop parameter unitCassava annual rainfall mm/a

drought monthsmean T Cmean daily max T Cannual rainfall mm/adrought monthsmean T Cmean daily max T Cav daily min T of the coldest month C

Maize growing cycle rainfall mm/cyclefirst month rainfall mm/monthsecond month rainfall mm/monththird month rainfall mm/monthfourth month rainfall mm/monthfifth month rainfall mm/monthgrowing cycle T Cgrowing cycle mean daily min T Crainfall in first months mm/monthrainfall in ripening stage mm/monthgrowing cycle T Cav daily max T of the warmest month Csecond month T Cav daily min T of the coldest month C

Rubber annual rainfall mm/adrought monthsmean T Cmean daily max T C

Soya growing cycle rainfall mm/cyclefirst month rainfall mm/monthsecond month rainfall mm/monththird month rainfall mm/monthfourth month rainfall mm/monthgrowing cycle T Cgrowing cycle mean daily min T C

Coffee Robusta

Rain fed rice

Rubber

Coffee

Cassava

Hotspot crop

yield assessment

20a

Rain fed rice yield • Increase in Eastern

Khorat Plateau + 5% – 20% • Driver: increased

rainfall

Baseline Change in 2050

Average annual rainfed rice yields in the selected provinces

Baseline (t/ha)

% Change in 2050

Change in production

(tons)

Chiang Rai 3.4 -4.8 - 30,000

Sakon Nakhon 2.1 4.6 + 27,000

Khammouane 3.4 -0.1 Not significant

Champasack 2.9 -5.6 - 11,000

Gia Lai 3.3 -12.6 - 20,000

Mondulkiri 2.1 -3.0 -1,114

Kampong Thom

2.2 -3.6 - 15,000

Average annual maize yields in the selected provinces

Baseline (t/ha)

Change by 2050 (%)

Change in production (tons)

Chang Rai 4.22 -3.13 - 6,500

Khammouane 4.74 -5.03 <1,000

Champasack 5.08 -5.55 -2,000

Gia Lai 3.54 -12.09 - 24,000

Kampong Thom

3.06 -5.97 <1,000

Vulnerability

assessment for key crops

Hot Spots

24a

Key climate change threats

1.Increase in temperature 2.Increase in precipitation 3.Decrease in precipitation 4.Decrease in water availability 5.Increase in water availability 6.Droughts in the rainy season 7.Flooding 8.Flash flood 9.(CO2 fertilization)

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Assessment criteria:

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity • Change in magnitude

of hydroclimate parameters

• Change in frequency and duration of the change

Physiological crop tolerances i.e. comfort zones

Internal factors: • biophysical factors (tolerant crops,

soil, water,…) External factors: • Farmer’s capacity – farming

technologies and accessibility to services

• Support systems: extension services, infrastructure, institution, etc

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CHAMPASSAK PROVINCE CASE STUDY OVERVIEW

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Current farming systems

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0

30

60

90

Rai

nfed

ric

eIrr

igat

ed

rice

Mai

ze

Cas

sava

Soy

a

Cof

fee

Rub

berA

rea

(103

ha)

• Largest land holdings in Lao PDR (2.1ha per HH) with rice as main crop – >70% lowland rainfed rice cultivated

during the wet season – <20%farmers cultivate both in dry and

wet season. • Lowland rice supplemented with

additional rainfed crops for subsistence (chilli, banana, sweet potato, beans etc...)

• Small holder coffee is dominant in the Bolovens plateau

• Cassava culture is booming, based on smallholder and contract farming

• Rubber concessions cover large areas

Key climate change threats for Robusta coffee Climate Change Threats

Sensitivity

Increased temperature

High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and production

Increased rainfall Optimal water supply is 1750 mm/year, with high suitability ranging from 1600 to 2400 mm and a dry period for flower initiation in March-April

Decreased rainfall Decreased precipitation during dry season causes water stress. Drought Long dry spells (> 20 days) can affect the production due to water stress

Flash floods Flash floods (> 250 mm/day) in upland and/or upstream areas that creates a sudden water level rise (rivers, stream) and carries debris, damaging coffee plant/production.

Storms Coffee can suffer from strong winds flash flood generated by storms.

CO2 increase Increase of CO2 might have an impact on growth and water use efficiency

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Projected changes in temperature 2050

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Champassak Summary Vulnerability Assessment

40% increase in proportion of dry season >32°C

Effects of increased temperature on coffee

Exposure: Very high • 80% of days with Ave. Max. temp. > 32ºC in Jan – Nov, • 20% of days with extreme max. temp > 36ºC in Jan – Oct.

Sensitivity: Medium High dry season temperatures can increase evapotranspiration and increase water stress Impact: High Reduced productivity Adaptive Capacity: Medium -Internal capacity: Medium -External capacity: High; shade-management practice Vulnerability Score: High

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Threat: High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and production

Champassak - Summary of vulnerability for key crops

CC threat Irrigated rice

Lowland rainfed rice

maize Cassava Rubber coffee

Increased temperature High High Medium Medium Medium High

Increased rainfall Low Medium High High Low High

Decreased rainfall Medium Medium Low Medium

Droughts Low Low Low Medium Medium

Flooding Low Medium Medium Medium

Flash floods Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium

Storms Low High Medium High Medium High

CO2 increase Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

Summary of VA for key crops: high vulnerability Provinces Rainfed

rice Irrigated rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugar-

cane Coffee Rubber

Chiang Rai High (temp)

Medium Medium High (temp)

Sakon Nakhon

High (temp)

High (rain, flood)

Medium High (temp)

Kham-mouane

High (temp, storm)

Medium High (rain, storm)

High (rain,

storm)

High (rain, storm)

Medium

Cham -pasak

High (temp, storm)

High (temp)

High (rain, storm)

High (rain)

High (temp, rain,

storm)

Medium

Mondulkiri High (Storm)

High (storm)

High (rain, storm)

Medium

Kampong Thom

High (temp, flood)

High (temp, flood)

High (flood)

High (lower water,

temp, flood)

Medium

Gia Lai High (temp)

High (temp)

High (flood, flash

flood)

High (storm,

flash flood)

Medium High (temp)

Medium

Kien Giang High (SLR,

salinity)

Medium-High (SLR,

salinity,temp)

Vulnerability Assessment Conclusions

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• Both rainfed and irrigated rice are highly vulnerable to:

• increased temperature in the wet season • salinity intrusion (in the delta)

• Altitude shift for Robusta coffee, rubber and cassava:

• Become more suitable in northern parts with an increase in temperature

• Suffer from droughts and a decrease in water availability in central parts

• Cassava, soya and maize: less suitable with an increase in rainfall in the wet season and more frequent storm.

• Annual rainfed crops, (specially soya) are more vulnerable to increase rainfall during the harvest period

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• Coffee is highly vulnerable to increased

temperature in the wet season • Rubber and sugarcane are relatively robust

crops to changes in climatic parameters • Effect of increased rainfall in the wet season

on rainfed rice: • Negative impact in “wet” areas like

Champasak, Khammouane, Gia Lai. • Positive impacts in a “dry” area like

Sakon Nakhon.

Adaptation

Options

37a

source:Proximity

Adaptation approach based on improving resilience of farming system

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Improve rainfed and irrigated system and reduce vulnerability

to hazard Improve water

efficiency and water management

techniques

Improve soil management and soil

fertility in plains, plateau and uplands

Agriculture technique to mitigate GhG

Diversification of cropping system

ADAPTATION Strategies

Improve weather forecast for farm

planning

Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems • New varieties and risk management strategies

– Shorter varieties/ early maturation varieties to avoid the flood or allow a double rice crop

– Tolerant varieties: • “Scuba rice” (tolerant to flood) • Varieties tolerant to drought for dry spell • Varieties to tolerant to Heat and salinity (coastal zone)

Adoption by farmers in Cambodia: using multiple varieties to spread the risk.

• Diversification with cash crops : Short term crop following the monsoon crop based on residual moisture

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Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems

• “System of Rice Intensification” – Based on principles of improved

management of your rice field – Diversity or practices and gradual

adoption of the technical packages

– Improved water, fertilizers and labour uses and improved yield;

– Reduce the vulnerability to climatic event (storm, drought)

– Reduce GhG in irrigated systems

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source:Africare 2010

Access to Irrigation

• Groundwater/ Small scale water storage – Dry season crop (small dam in

Cambodia enabling double rice crop) – Supplementary irrigation (mini ponds

in Bangladesh) – Diversification with intensive

homestead gardening (Drip irrigation in Cambodia, Myanmar)

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source:UNDP 2011

Water Saving technology and Rain water Harvesting

• Reducing flooding rice field to alternate flood/dry rice fields

• Green mulch technique + clays to improve water retention

• Rainwater Harvesting – in tanks or ponds – Multipurpose: supplementary

irrigation, double cropping, horticulture (drip irrigation) or domestic water uses

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source:Proximity

Soil & fertility management

• Maximum yield is far from being reach • Commercial mono-agriculture: destruction of

soil structure

• Potential options: – “Urea Deep placement” for a better

efficiency of the fertilizer. – SRI approach reduce the use of fertilizer – Conservation agriculture improve soil

structure, increase organic matter in the soil and promote nutrient availability for the crop

43 source:CIRAD

source: IFDC

A Climate Change resilient rural community (adapted from IDe _Cambodia)

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1. Dynamic • Enhanced capacity to change • Information access (about the change and solutions)

2. Diversified

• Within and outside the farming enterprise

3. Technically well skilled • Access to advice and inputs Provide the farming community with a variety of options that can be employed depending on the climate conditions

Requires an In depth Analysis of Community Vulnerability and needs before any intervention

• Design adaptation option(s) at the community level

– Need to acknowledge the diversity

of agricultural practices and agro-ecosystem at the community level

– Need to take into account the past and current interventions

– In depth assessment of local community farming system vulnerabilities.

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