Measuring variations

Causality and causal modellingin the social sciences

Federica RussoPhilosophy, Louvain & Kent

2

Overview Locate this work:

Metaphysics, epistemology,methodology of causality

Domain; interest; objective

The guiding questionRationale (vs. definition)

Methodology of research andtypes of arguments

A taste of methodological argumentsStructural equations

A taste of possible objectionsRegularity; Invariance; Homogenous populations

3

Philosophy of causality

MetaphysicsWhat causality/cause is

EpistemologyHow do we know about causal relations

MethodologyDevelop/implement methodsfor discovery/confirmation of causal

relations

4

This work

Epistemology of causality

Domainquantitative social science

Interestcausal reasoning in causal modelling

Objectivedig out a neglected notionin the philosophy of causality: variationvariation

5

The guiding question

When we reason about cause-effectrelations in causal modelling,what notionnotion guides this reasoning?

Regularity? Invariance? Production? ...

Hunting for a rationalerationale

6

Rationale vs. definition

Rationale: a principle/notion/concept underlyingdecision/reasoning/modelling

Definition:A description of a thing by meansof its properties or if its function

Here:hunt for the notion underlying model buildingand model testing: rationale, not definition

7

Methodology of research

Bottom-up rather than top-down

A philosophical investigation that

startsstarts from the scientific practice,

withinwithin the scientific practice raisesmethodological and epistemological issues,

forfor the scientific practice pointsto the path forward

8

The answer

Causal modelling is regimented byCausal modelling is regimented by

a rationale of variationa rationale of variation

9

ArgumentsEmpirical:

Look at informal reasoning in case studies

Methodological:Look at rationale of model building & testingin various causal models

Philosophical:Look at arguments given by other philosophers

Foundational:Look at forefathers of causal modelling

Compatibility:Look at various established philosophical accounts

10

A taste of methodological arguments

Consider a structural equationY = X+

Are there meaningful co-variations between X and Y?

Are those variations chancy or causal?hypothesis testing; invariance; exogeneity

11

Therefore…

Variation is a preconditionwith respect to other notions

E.g.: regularity, invariance

Any role left to those? Yes – constraints:Regularity: often enough Invariance: stability of parameters

Rule out accidental and spurious variations,Grant causal interpretation of variations

12

A taste of objectionsRegularity

Mine is just a reformulation of regularity theory

Only partly true

Regularity is more basic.Not quite: regularity of what?

InvarianceInvariance is more basic.

Not quite: invariance of what?

Homogenous populationsNo variations in homogenous populations.

That’s the point: to make variations emerge

13

Want to know more?Want to know more?