measuring economic performance
DESCRIPTION
Measuring Economic Performance. Readings. Lequiller François and Derek Blades, 2006, Under standing NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Chapter 1 and 2. Link Bureau of Economic Analysis “Introduction to the National Income and Product Accounts” Link. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Measuring Economic
Performance
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Real GDP: YoY
Readings
• Lequiller François and Derek Blades, 2006, Under standing NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Chapter 1 and 2. Link
• Bureau of Economic Analysis “Introduction to the National Income and Product Accounts” Link
Value vs. Volume• Consider the sales of a hypothetical single good
k (for example, k = apples). • Dollar Value of sales (called vk) is the product of
the volume of goods sold (called qk) measured in the goods natural units (i.e. bushels of apples) and the dollar price per good (called pk)
vk = pk * qk
• Growth of value can be decomposed into growth of volume and growth in prices.
(1 ) (1 )(1 )k k kv p qg g g
Economic Growth• Rate of Increase of Production. • If Qt is a measure of production, the simple net
growth rate is
• Implying
1
1
q t tt
t
q qgq
1
1 q tt
t
qgq
What is Economic Growth in a world of many goods?
• We need to combine the many goods produced or consumed in an economy into one measure.
++
++
=?
(Simple) Average Growth
• If there are K goods then we could calculate the average growth rate of each type of good.
• Problem: Taking the simple average of the growth of different types of goods may give a distorted picture of average growth, since different goods are of different importance in the economy.
1 2 3
...K
AVERAGEq q q q
q g g g ggK
Weighted Average Growth
• Instead we could construct a weighted average
where the weights add to 1.
• An even weight is wk =1/K but we could adjust
the weights to be indicate the importance of each good in the economy.
_
1 2 31 2 3 ...
WGTD AVGE
K
q
q q q K q
g
w g w g w g w g
1 2 3 ... 1Kw w w w
_
1 1
1WGTD AVGE k
K Kq k q k
k k
g w g w
Measuring the Economy
• National accounts are the core statistical measure of the economy.
• Accounts cover many features of the economy but organizing concept is
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)• “GDP combines in a single figure, and with no double
counting, all the output (or production) carried out by all the firms, non-profit institutions, government bodies and households in a given country during a given period, regardless of the type of goods and services produced, provided that the production takes place within the country’s economic territory.” L & B p. 15
All goods sold in an economy share a common unit of measure: the price at which they are sold.
Sum up the value of goods
GDP is a measure of production
• Value added at production establishment i
• GDP is the sum of VA across establishments.
iValue Added =Sales + inventories -raw materials, semi-processed inputs and energy costs.
i iGDP Value Added
• Accounts are created by national statistical agencies
• UN System of National Accounts is the “internationally agreed standard set of recommendations” used by most countries.
• Annual data for many countries available at the UN
Link
Link
Production ApproachSub-aggregates
• Divide production establishments into sectors usually along the line of – Primary: Natural Resources (Agriculture, Forestry,
Fishing, Mining, Quarrying) – Secondary: Goods production (Manufacturing,
Construction, Utilities)– Tertiary: Intangibles Production
Agr
icul
ture
, hun
ting,
fore
stry
,fis
hing
(IS
IC A
-B)
Min
ing
& U
tiliti
es
Man
ufac
turin
g (IS
IC D
)
Con
stru
ctio
n (IS
IC F
)
Who
lesa
le, r
etai
l tra
de,
rest
aura
nts
and
hote
ls (I
SIC
G-H
)
Tran
spor
t, st
orag
e an
dco
mm
unic
atio
n (IS
IC I)
Oth
er A
ctiv
ities
(IS
IC J
-P)
1970
20100
10
20
30
40
50
60Hong
Kong:
Value
Added
by
Sector
Hong Kong Census and Statistics
Expenditure Approach
• Purchase of Final goods by end users are divided into two categories:
1. Consumption: Household expenditure (durables, nondurables & services); government (nondurables & services) expenditure; nonprofit expenditures
2. Investment: Inventories, Fixed Investment (equipment, structures)
Some Asian Expenditure Shares: 2010
Source: United Nations Main Aggregates Database Source: United Nations Main Aggregates Database
1 2 3
123
-10
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90
0
0.1
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1
Household consumption expenditure General government final consumption expenditureGross fixed capital formation Changes in inventoriesSeries5
People’s Republic of China
Share of Value• We could measure total value for the economy. • Divide our economy into K categories of goods
indexed by k = 1,…, K.• Value of sales of good k, vk. GDP is represented as
the sum of value across goods
• The weight of k in the economy could be defined as which add up to 1 across sectors.
1 2 3... Kt t t t t tGDP V v v v v
kk vw V
1
Kk
t tk
V v
Using GDP to Measure Economic Performance
•
Growth Rates of Products and Ratios
1 1 1 1 1
1
1111
(1 )(1 )
1 1
(1 )(1 )
(1 ) (1 )(1 ) 1
X Yt t t t tt t t t t
t t t t t
Z X Y Y X Z X Yt t t t t t t t
t t Xt tt t t
Ytt t ttt
tt
X Z Y Z Y Y Z Z X Yt t t t t t t t t t
Z X Y X YZ X Y g g
Z X Y X Y
g g g g g g g gX X
Z YX X gZ Y Y gXZYY
g g g g g g g g g g
Share of Value• We could measure total value for the economy. • Divide our economy into K categories of goods
indexed by k = 1,…, K.• Value of sales of good k, vk. GDP is represented as
the sum of value across goods
• The weight of k in the economy could be defined as which add up to 1 across sectors.
1 2 3... Kt t t t t tGDP V v v v v
kk vw V
1
Kk
t tk
V v
Volume Growth
• Define as a weight
• By construction, the weights add up to one, so volume growth is a weighted average of the growth of production of each type of good
1 11
1
k kk t tt
t
p qwV
1 2 31 2 31 1 1 1
11
....k
k
Q q q q K qt t t t t t t t t
Kk qt t
k
g w g w g w g w g
w g
Aggregate Growth• Macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP and
its sub-totals are the sum of values of sales (or purchases) from different firms.
• We also decompose the growth of the aggregates into growth in prices (inflation) and growth in volume (output).
t i i ii i
V v p q
(1 ) (1 )(1 )V P Qt t tg g g
How statistical agencies calculate volume growth.
1. Construct representative market basket of each category of goods, k. For example, if k were apples, the market basket could consist of a certain number of Red apples, Green apples, Fuji apples depending on how many of each of these are purchased.
2. Sample goods of type k at time t and at time t-1 to assess the price level of the market basket at each time period.
1,k kt tp p
Building Blocks for Volume GrowthValue and Inflation Vectors
3. For every type of good at time t, measure and construct an inflation vector representing the growth rate of prices.
4. Convert the dollars spent on good k into their purchasing power measured at time t-1 prices.
ktv
11
kkpt
k tt
p gp
1
1
k kkt t
ktkttkt
v vp ppp
• Conceptually, if we think of value of good k as the product of price and quantity vk = pk*qk we can think of value divided by the inflation vector as the quantity of goods produced at time t measured at the value in terms of the previous period prices.
1 1 1
k k kk k k kt t tt t t tk k
t t
v p qp p p qp p
Volume Growth5. Sum the inflation adjusted values across the
types of goods and divide by value in previous period
2 31 2 31 1 1 1
1 2 3
1
1
....
Qt
k KKt t t t
Kt t t tt t t t
t
g
p p p pv v v vp p p pV
Qtg
1
1
11
K kk t
ktQ tkt
t
pv pg V
Volume Growth cont.
• Conceptually, the numerator of volume growth is the sum of goods produced at time t valued at the price prevailing at time t-1 while the denominator is the sum of goods produced at time t-1 valued at the price prevailing at time t-1. The yardstick of value, dollar prices in time t-1 prices, are the same in the numerator and denominator.
1 1 2 2 3 31 1 1 11 1 2 2 3 3
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
....1....
K KQ t t t t t t t tt K K
t t t t t t t t t
p q p q p q p qgV p q p q p q p q
Volume Growth cont.
• Conceptually, we can also think net volume growth as a weighted average of the growth rate of quantities of each type of good.
1 1 2 2 3 31 1 1 11 1 2 2 3 3
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 3 31 1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1 2 2 3 31 1 1 1 1
.... 1....
....
....
K KQ t t t t t t t tt K K
t t t t t t t t t
K Kt t t t t t t t t
t t
K Kt t t t t t t t t
t
p q p q p q p qgV p q p q p q p q
p q p q p q p q VV V
p q p q p q p q VV
1
• We can rewrite the numerator as
• Collect terms
• Rewrite
1 1 2 2 1 1 2 21 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
.... ....K K K Kt t t t t t t t t t t tQ
tt
p q p q p q p q p q p qg
V
1 1 1 2 2 21 1 1 1 1 1
1
( ) ( ) .... ( )K K KQ t t t t t t t t tt
t
p q q p q q p q qgV
1 1 2 21 1 2 21 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 11 21 1 1
1
( ) ( ) .... ( )
Qt
K KK Kt t t t t t
t t t t t t Kt t t
t
g
q q q q q qp q p q p qq q q
V
• Note that and divide through by Vt-1 .
• Define as a weight
• By construction, the weights add up to one, so volume growth is a weighted average of the growth of production of each type of good
1
1
( )kk k
q t tt k
t
q qgq
1 21 1 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1
....K
K KQ q q qt t t t t tt t t t
t t t
p q p q p qg g g gV V V
1 11
1
k kk t tt
t
p qwV
1 2 31 2 31 1 1 1....
kQ q q q K qt t t t t t t t tg w g w g w g w g
Volume Levels• To compare the level of aggregate
quantities at different points in time, total up the growth that appears in between periods.
1. Calculate the growth rate for all periods using the prices from the immediately previous periods to adjust current values.
2. Choose a reference period, ref, preferably in a recent period and set a constant price series equal to value in that period
Qtg
REF REFQ V
Chained Index
3. Define the constant price series recursively in all periods using the equation
The relationship between the levels of the chain volume index at any two points t and t+T is the product of the growth between the two points.
1(1 )Qt t tQ g Q
1 2 3(1 ) (1 ) (1 ) .... (1 )REF T REF
Q Q Q QREF REF REF REF T
Q Q
g g g g
1 2 3 1(1 ) (1 ) (1 ) .... (1 )REF T
REF Q Q Q QREF REF REF REF T
QQg g g g
Comparing GDP across Countries
We want to compare output in two countries though those are measured in different currencies.
Market Basket Index?
• Construct an international market basket of goods produced and purchased around the world. For country j, PPPj could be the relative price of the market basket relative to price of the market basket in US$.
• Problem: Judging the cost of living by the cost of the international market basket may not be fair if customers in the local market can buy the types of goods which are cheaper at home.
• Major project to compare prices internationally implemented by the World Bank with the help of UN and national statistical agencies.
• ICP has been implemented by UN Statistical Office since 1968.
Link
PPP’s1. Divide expenditures into k = 1,..,K (in 2005, K
= 155) “basic heading” categories of goods.2. All j = 1,..J countries (in 2005, J = 146) report
total expenditure in domestic currency of all categories .
kjv
ICP Handbook
PPP’s cont.3. Sample prices of representative goods from
each category in each country. 4. Construct average of those prices (relative to
“anchor” economy) for each country j basic heading type of good k .
k kj ANCp p
Note: Measured in # of j country Currency units per anchor country currency units. Example. If Japan = j and anchor is USA, and 1 kg. rice is 400 yen in Japan and $2 in USA :
200kJPN
kANC
pp
PPP in Anchor Currency.4. Define quantity of good of type k valued
5. Calculate price of j’s market basket in j’s prices relative to price of j’s market basket in anchor country prices.
kk j
kjj
vq p
1 2: $
1 2
1 2 2
1 2 2
...
...
Kj j jj AC
j Kj j j
j j j
AC AC AC
v v vPPP
v v vp p p
p p p
Numerator in j currency, denominator in AC currency
• Conceptually PPP is the cost of the goods purchased by consumers in their country relative to the cost of those same goods in anchor country terms.
1 1 2 2: $
1 1 2 2
......
K Kj j j j j jj AC
j K KANC j ANC j ANC j
p q p q p qPPP
p q p q p q
1 21 2
$ 1 21 ...
,......,
KKANC ANC ANC
AC j j j Kj j j j
nn jj
j
p p pw w wPPP p p p
v w V
• We could also calculate relative price of anchor countries market basket.
• Index number theory suggest Fisher Ideal index (i.e. geometric average of and represent the differences in the cost of living).
1 1 2 2: $
1 1 2 2
......
K Kj AC j AC j ACj AC
AC K KAC AC ANC AC AC AC
p q p q p qPPP
p q p q p q
: $ : $ : $$
j AC j AC j ACIntl AC jPPP PPP PPP
: $j ACACPPP : $j AC
jPPP
2011Price level ratio of PPP conversion factor PPP conversion factor
Country Name to market exchange rate (LCU per international $)China 0.542527 3.505536Hong Kong SAR, China 0.701644 5.461593Indonesia 0.411219 3606.566India 0.314063 15.10943Japan 1.346427 107.4543Korea, Rep. 0.771083 854.5857Lao PDR 0.307315 2467.753Myanmar 43.16115 234.974Philippines 0.412201 17.85372Singapore 0.708778 0.891484Thailand 0.405696 12.37038
Large Variations in Labor per Person (www.ggdc.net)
Hours per Worker 2001
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
EU
USA
Japan
Hong Kong
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Variation in Labor Force Participaton
Employment as a share of Population
38.00%
40.00%
42.00%
44.00%
46.00%
48.00%
50.00%
52.00%
Europe U.S.A Japan Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan
Pre-Industrial RevolutionSource: Angus Madisson, Measuring the Chinese Economy
GDP per Capita
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
50AD 960AD 1280 1400 1820
1990
US$ China
Europe
Main Differences in Countries are Due to Variation in Labor Productivity
GDP per Worker
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Hong K
ong
Indon
esia
Korea
Malays
ia
Phillip
pines
Singap
ore
Taiwan
Thaila
nd
Now, China is calculating GDP based on economic activity of each quarter to make the data "more accurate in measuring the seasonal economic activity and more sensitive in capturing information on short-term fluctuations", the NBS said.
Previously, China's quarterly GDP data, in terms of value and growth rates, was derived from cumulated figures rather than economic activity of that particular quarter, the bureau said.
The new methodology - in line with that of major developed countries - will pave the way for China to adopt the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) in calculating GDP, it said.Link
Labor Share of Income
Link
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1600
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Determinants of Income
GDP per Capita, 1000's of US$
Hour
s per
Cap
ita
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,0000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Determinants of Income
GDP per Capita
Labo
r Pro
ducti
vity
Productivity Catch Up: EuropeSource: Groningen Growth & Development Center
1950% of USA 2003
% of USA
Growth Rate
U.S.A 12.00 100.0% 33.97 100.0% 2.00%
France 5.63 46.9% 37.75 111.1% 3.46%
Germany 4.36 36.3% 30.01 88.3% 3.95%
UK 7.49 62.4% 28.01 82.5% 2.91%
Spain 2.60 21.7% 22.21 65.4% 4.94%
1990 US$, Average Output per Hour (Y/L)
Productivity Catch Up: Latin America
Source: Groningen Growth & Development Center
1950 % of USA
2003 % of USA
Growth Rate
U.S.A 12.00 100.0% 33.97 100.0% 2.00%
Argentina 6.16 51.4% 10.57 31.1% 1.04%
Brazil 2.48 20.7% 7.81 23.0% 2.21%
Chili 4.66 38.9% 14.07 41.4% 2.12%
Mexico 3.56 29.7% 10.24 30.1% 2.03%
Productivity Catch Up: East Asia Source: Groningen Growth & Development Center
1950 % of USA 2003 % of USA Growth Rate
U.S.A 12.00 100.0% 33.97 100.0% 2.00%
Japan 2.30 19.2% 24.78 73.0% 4.57%
1973 % of USA 2003 % of USA
Hong Kong
7.49 35.0% 22.28 65.6% 4.74%
Korea 3.64 17.0% 14.25 42.0% 5.93%
Singapore 6.80 31.8% 19.63 57.8% 4.61%
Taiwan 4.37 20.4% 18.77 55.2% 6.33%
y1951 % of USA y2011 % of USA
Argentina 2.592284 15.1% 19.29067 35.3%
Australia 13.4734 78.6% 38.31929 70.2%Brazil 1.646719 9.6% 9.128079 16.7%Chile 5.803535 33.9% 14.40455 26.4%France 6.578401 38.4% 49.28606 90.2%
Germany 49.18272 90.1%
Hong Kong 28.55739 52.3%I taly 4.366204 25.5% 40.41155 74.0%J apan 2.06587 12.1% 38.14028 69.8%Mexico 6.828484 39.8% 14.68958 26.9%
Singapore 34.86622 63.8%
South Korea 26.84044 49.1%
United Kingdom 9.541419 55.7% 39.9666 73.2%
United States 17.14322 100.0% 54.61435 100.0%
Labor Productivity per Hour2014 US$
Country 1950.00 2014.00% of USA % of USA
France 8.64 43.3% 63.97 96.2%Germany 6.57 33.0% 63.44 95.4%Italy 8.22 41.2% 50.41 75.8%United Kingdom 12.18 61.1% 49.66 74.7%
Canada 16.07 80.6% 51.17 77.0%United States 19.94 100.0% 66.47 100.0%
Australia 14.15 71.0% 53.35 80.3%New Zealand 15.59 78.2% 39.03 58.7%
Labor Productivity per Hour2014 US$
Economy 1950.00 2014.00% of USA % of USA
Hong Kong 3.29 16.5% 47.16 71.0%Japan 3.24 16.2% 42.06 63.3%Singapore 7.81 39.2% 60.42 90.9%South Korea 1.74 8.7% 33.67 50.7%Taiwan 1.48 7.4% 43.27 65.1%
Argentina 10.45 52.4% 22.21 33.4%Brazil 4.70 23.6% 16.94 25.5%Chile 6.30 31.6% 27.38 41.2%Mexico 8.12 40.7% 19.89 29.9%Peru 6.06 30.4% 15.27 23.0%
19501952
19541956
19581960
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Capital Productivity
Brazil France South Korea United States
Midterm Exam
• Thursday, October 15, 2015, 2:00-4:00, LTG• Location: Lecture Theater G• Bring writing materials and calculator.• Coverage: Material (through Tuesday,
October, 13, 2015).• Semi-open book: Bring 1 A4 size piece of
paper with handwritten notes on both sides.
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
China Capital Productivity