mccracken and beer, 2014
DESCRIPTION
Using the paleo-cosmic ray record to compare the solar activity during the sunspot minimum of 2006-2009 with those during the Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton Grand Minima Ken McCracken IPST, University of Maryland. [email protected] NESSC, Boston, 17April, 2014 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Using the paleo-cosmic ray record to compare the solar activity during the sunspot minimum of 2006-2009 with those during the Spoerer, Maunder, and
Dalton Grand Minima
Ken McCracken
IPST, University of Maryland.
NESSC, Boston, 17April, 2014
U. New Hampshire, 14 April, 2014
McCracken and Beer, 2014
GALACTIC COSMIC RADIATION
SPALLATION OF ATMOSPHERICA, N and O.
TIME
1OBe
ICECORE
THE PALEO- COSMIC RADIATION RECORD
TREE RINGS
14C
DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERIC ANDSEQUESTRATION PROCESSES
5730 y 1.5x106 y
36Cl
> 120 investigator years of data
COSMOGENIC NUCLIDE PRODUCTION DURING THE PAST 10,000 YEARS
TWO INDEPENDENT MEASUREMENTS OF THE PAST
Beer et al, ICRC 2007
Steinhilber et al, PNAS (USA), 2012
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PALEO-COSMIC RAYS - A PROXY FOR SPACE CLIMATE
High PCR (“Maunder”) Low PCR (“Modern”)
Low sunspot cycles High sunspot cycles Low solar activity High solar activityLow HMF High HMFHigh radiation environ’t Low radiation environ’t
OTHER SEQUENCES OF GRAND MINIMA- AND >1000 YR LONG INTERVALS BETWEEN
MS
M
M
S M
M
D
D D
McCracken and Beer, JGR, 2014
Dye 3 and North GRIP Annual Data
THE MAUNDER MINIMUM – UP CLOSE.
McCracken and Beer, JGR, 2014
COSMIC RAYS- A COSMIC MAGNETOMETER
After Caballero - Lopez et al, 2004
Modulation Potential (Observed)
Φ = k. VP . B2(t) / ˂(ΔB)2˃
Helio-magnetic field (inferred)
B(t) = B0 . {Φ(t)/ Φ0} 1/α
The HMF (Omni-2) near Earth , 1975-2009
Bmax
BminBmax/ Bmin= (1.31-1.63)Average = 1.52
COMPARING THE SOLAR DYNAMO DURING MAUNDER MINIMUM WITH THE PRESENT
MODERN MAUNDER
Bmax/ Bmin 1.31-1.63 1.30-1.85
Average 1.52 1.54
CONCLUSION- A remarkable similarity- the solar dynamo apparently worked then like now with much weaker magnetic fields.
Name Duration Rise Cycles Peak NM(%) Min.HMF(nT) Spoerer 1440-1540 4 111.3 2.4Maunder 1645-1715 5 117.0 <2.0Dalton 1790-1830 2 110.9 2.6Gleissberg 1880-1910 104.5 3.8
Extended Minimum 2006-9 102.8 3.9
Modern epoch Minima 1954-96 97.7 5.4
Comparison of key features of the Minima
COMPARISON OF EXTENDED SUNSPOT MINIMUM 2006-9 AND GRAND MINIMA, 1400-1850 AD.
- The cosmic ray intensity during 2006-9 was well below those in the Spoerer and Maunder Minimum, while approaching that in the Gleissberg Minimum.
- The cosmic ray intensity increased over 4 to 5 solar cycles at the commencement of the Grand Minima.
- The next solar minimum 2019 will determine whether the Sun is going into another Grand Minimum.
-The solar dynamo operated during the Maunder Minimum as it does today
THANK YOU
Steinhilber et al, PNAS (USA), 2012
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THE SEQUENCE OF GRAND MINIMA-950-2000 AD - OUR CALIBRATION ERA.
In “Grand Minimum” ~40% of time!
Space Era Level