materiały konferencyjne
TRANSCRIPT
INVESTMENT MARKET IN POLANDvs. EUROPE
May 2007
AGENDA
Rationale for investing in Poland (Retail, Industrial, Office)
Investors in Poland
Adding value and success in Polish retail market
Evolution of Polish Investment Market to Date1
2
3
4
Returns
5
6
Case studies
Recent Trends
7
Evolution of Polish Investment Market to Date
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Retail
Office
Industrial
Investment Volume (mln €)
€ 1.9 bn
€ 0.3 bn
€ 2.5 bn
€ 1.1 bn
€ 0.2 bn
€ 2.0
Source: King Sturge Research
Rationale for investing in Polish Retail
Source: King Sturge Research
Investment Yield (%)
Rent (€ / m2 / p.a.)
Warsaw
Rationale for investing in Polish Offices
Source: King Sturge Research
Investment Yield (%)
Rent (€ / m2 / p.a.)
Warsaw
Rationale for investing in Polish Industrial
Source: King Sturge Research
Investment Yield (%)
Rent (€ / m2 / p.a.)
Warsaw
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Norway
Netherlan
ds
Sweden
Irelan
d UK
DenmarkSpain
Austria
France Ita
ly
German
y
Czech
Repub
lic
Poland
Hungary
Belgium
Shopping centre floorspace (GLA m2) per 1,000 population by country in 2006
m2
Source: Retail Research Forum
Source: King Sturge Research
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
50000000
Paris
London
Stockho
lm
Brussels
Frankfu
rtMila
n
Copen
hagen
Vienna
Zurich
Amsterdam
Moscow
Barcelo
na
Genev
a
Warsaw
Dublin
Prague
Budap
est
Office floorspace (GLA m2) by cities in 2007
m2
Rationale for investing in Poland
Rental growth in the all sectors
Growing spending purchase power
Business Process Offshoring
Increasing tenants diversification in regional cities
Dynamic development of regional cities and Euro 2012
Optimistic economy growth prospect
Challenges faced by investors in Poland
Lack of transparency and quality of data
Local approach vs. institutional experience
Immature market
Increasing competition
Little historic data
Lack of investment product
Yield levels and DSCR
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F
%Prime Retail, Warsaw
Prime Retail, Regional Cities
Yields in Polish retail – history & forecast
Source: King Sturge Research
*
* Information at the end of 2006
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F
%
Prime Office, Warsaw
Prime Office, Regional Cities
Yields in Polish office – history & forecast
*
* Information at the end of 2006
Source: King Sturge Research
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F
%
Prime Industrial, Warsaw in-townPrime Industrial, logistics locations
Yields in Polish industrial – history & forecast
*
* Information at the end of 2006
Source: King Sturge Research
Recent trends
Smaller lot sizes / portfolios
Newcomers
Joint ventures
Forward fundings / purchases
Resales of assets
New products
Investors in Polish investment market
Core Investors
Opportunistic Investors
Institutional Investment Funds
Property Companies
Small / Medium Asset ManagersUK
German
American
Dutch
French
Spanish
Austrian
Irish
Investor Type Structure of the investor Country of origin
Source: King Sturge
Adding value
- Active asset and property management- Adding income- Repositioning / refurbishments- Building portfolio- Changes to tenant mix- Extensions
How can investors succeed in Poland?
- Know the market- Choose location- Target properties- Prepare clear strategy- Detailed due diligence- Active sourcing
Industrial Sale
Diamond Business Park JankiPurchase price: $ 30,000,000Size: 28,000 m2
Seller: AIG LincolnBuyer: Teesland / IOGMain tenants: Hellmann, Coty
Retail Sale
Promenada (Warsaw)Purchase Price: € 127,000,000Size: 50,000 m²Seller: Private IndividualBuyer: Dawnay Day CarpathianMain tenants: Cinema City, Zara, H&M, Alma, Empik
Office Sale
Euromarket (Kraków)Purchase Price: € 32,000,000+Size: 16,000 m²Seller: InvescoBuyer: CIT GroupMain tenants: BP, Fortis Bank
Retail schemes joint ventures
Focus ParkTotal target lot size: € 500,000,000 +Partners: Parkridge CE Retail & Morley Fund Management
Michał ĆwiklińskiInvestment DepartmentKing Sturge
T: +48 22 653 48 48E-Mail: [email protected]
Al. Jana Pawła II 2500-854 Warszawa
Questions