mapping the national strategy toward zero deaths 2011 aashto spring meeting las vegas, nv
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Mapping the National Strategy Toward Zero Deaths 2011 AASHTO Spring Meeting Las Vegas, NV. Timothy Neuman, PE Chief Highway Engineer and Highway and Traffic Safety Practice Lead, CH2M HILL. NCHRP 17-51 Input to the Development of a National Highway Safety Strategy. CH2M HILL Prime Consultant - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Mapping the National Strategy Toward Zero Deaths2011 AASHTO Spring MeetingLas Vegas, NV
Timothy Neuman, PEChief Highway Engineer and Highway and Traffic Safety Practice Lead, CH2M HILL
2
• CH2M HILL Prime Consultant– Ida van Schalkwyk, Ph.D., Principal Investigator– Tim Neuman, Howard Preston, Tegan Houghton,
Richard Storm, Kim Kolody, Stacey Black• Midwest Research Institute
– Doug Harwood, Ingrid Potts, Jessica Hutton• Prof. Dan Turner, Univ of Alabama (Emeritus)• Independent Consultants
– Scott Newton– Quinn Brackett
NCHRP 17-51 Input to the Development of a National Highway Safety Strategy
3
Where we have been?19
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
090
5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
Motor vehicle crash fatalities in the US
(1990 – 2009)
4
• Fatal and serious injury crashes typically involve many contributing factors
• There are proven solutions to reducing crashes and their consequences
• Solutions incorporate the 4Es (Engineering, Enforcement, Education, Emergency Medical Services)
• Solutions include legislative actions which may require political will
What have we learned?
Source: Treat, 1979 as cited in AASHTO Highway Safety Manual
13% VEHICLE
DRIVER(human) 93%
34% ROADWAY(environment)
57
27
633
3
1
5
• Strong partnerships are essential to measurable progress
What have we learned?
6
Data driven processes using science-based approaches produce
measurable outcomes
7
• Safety is not everyone’s top priority– Management systems do not typically address
safety data needs– Program and project development processes
need adjusting– Resource allocations emphasize other priorities
• Safety is not as well understood as it should be
• We can do much better
What else have we learned?
8
The reality -- We lag behind our peers
Source: Global Status Report on Road Safety: Time for Action, WHO, 2009
High-income countries: Fatality rate per 100,000 population
US
9
The nature of the problem will direct how we tackle it
Safety Culture• Organizational• Road Users
Drivers
Vehicles
Vulnerable UsersInfrastructure (multi-modal)
EMS & Public Health (injury
prevention)
Data & Analysis (access to information
and tools)
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• This must be a data driven exercise
• One size does not fit all– The nature and
severity of the problem varies
– Local culture and political climate varies as well
Addressing the Problem
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• What is the nature of the problem in the U.S.?
• What real progress have we made (and how far do we have to go) in changing the culture of driver behavior?
• What problems have emerged requiring our attention? (And what emergent problems might we expect or anticipate?)
Mapping the National Strategy means understanding reality
12
The reality--‘Highway Fatalities’ is a rural problem
Source: NHTSA: Traffic Safety Facts – 2008 Data – Rural/Urban Comparison
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%61% 57%
% fa
talit
ies
in r
ural
ar
eas
13
The reality-- ‘Highway Fatalities’ is to a great extent a local problem
51%
66%
54%*
2009 fatality numbers except *
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
102030405060708090
100
49%63%
31%43%
Drivers: % Restraint Used
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The reality -- It is way too early to claim victory with respect to restraint use
15
The reality -- Impaired driving remains a significant and stubborn problem
19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820090%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% 48%
22%
% Drivers in fatal crashes driving with a BAC NE zero
% D
rive
rs in
fata
l cra
shes
16
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Motorcyclist fatali-tiesMot
orcy
clis
t fa
talit
ies
Regi
ster
ed m
otor
cycl
es
Source: NHTSA Fatal Analysis Reporting System Encyclopedia, NCSA
The reality – In some areas we have regressed
17
• Young driver licensing• Primary seat belt laws• Automated enforcement• Motorcycle helmets
The reality – Effective legislation is a valuable tool
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• Motorcycle fatalities• Policies to promote more walking and
bicycle use (growing the population of vulnerable users)
• Distracted driving• Vehicle size and weight (fuel efficiency and
large trucks)• Aging population (elderly drivers)
The reality – emergent problems abound
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Leadership and Commitment
Re-prioritization• Resource allocation• System management (program development)
Investments in Continuing Research
Improved/renewed/strengthened partnerships (interagency relationships)
Access to the complete toolbox (infrastructure, education, legislation)
Cultural Change• Society• Within transportation agencies
Mapping the National StrategyWhat will it Take?
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• What is Driving us to aspire to Toward Zero Deaths
• What is restraining or keeping us from committing to TZD or achieving this?
Discussion Framework for Roundtable
Driving Forces Restraining Forces
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
21
Toward Zero Deaths
Toward • What is our sense
of urgency ?• Can we commit to
‘the long haul’?
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Imagine what it will mean if, as a nation, we can’t or won’t commit to TZD?
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
What if we had sustained a 6% annual reduction in
fatalities since 1990?
Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities in the US
303,000 lives would have been saved
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Imagine what it will mean if, as a nation, we don’t commit to TZD?
We would have saved the entire population of Riverside, CA
• Multidisciplinary partnering – Include safety culture & non-
infrastructure partners• Organizational change
– Data-driven decision-making– Maximize the benefit of our
investments in terms of fatality reduction
• Reprioritization of agency mission & approach– Safety, mobility, infrastructure
condition– Full integration of safety (rather
than safety projects)• Help change the culture
What can we do?
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A National Safety Strategy
?
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What would it take to sustain CONSISTENT and LONG-TERM reductions
towards a goal we can live with ?