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New Development Report
*Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
First Quarter
BROOKLYNMANHATTAN
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$1,278AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$2,170
AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
665AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
5,249
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
$1,361
$1,471
$2,219
$2,538
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
-4% QoQ -22% QoQ
2017
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
Summary Points
39.2% of all Active new development
listings in Manhattan are priced above $5M, down from 42.4% in Q4 2016, and well below a high of 52% in Q1 2015. 13.3% of Active listings remain priced above $10M, down from 15.6% at year-end 2016, reflecting downward repricing in the super luxury category.
In Manhattan the total percentage of new development deals
entering contract under $5M remained flat quarter-over-quarter at 72.4%, but fell year-over-year from 78.5%. Conversely, the percentage of deals over $5M remained flat quarter-over-quarter at 27.6%, but rose from 21.5% year-over-year, indicating a moderate increase in deal volume of luxury product as aspirational pricing has revised downward.
The number of new development units in Manhattan entering contract in Q1 2017 increased 26.9% quarter-over quarter to approximately 330, up from approximately 260 units in what was a soft fourth quarter for
new development in 2016. In Brooklyn, over 120 units entered into contract in Q1 2017, a 59% quarter-over-quarter from approximately 75 units in Q4 2016.
Pricing for Manhattan new development units entering into contract in Q1 2017 fell 2.8% quarter-over-quarter to $2,219 PSF from $2,285 in Q4 2016, but rose 4.9% year-over-year
from $2,114 PSF in Q1 2016. Avg. PPSF for closed new development units fell 5.4% quarter-over-quarter to $2,170, and remained essentially flat year-over-year, rising just 0.5% from $2,160 in Q1 2016. In Brooklyn, new development entering into contract averaged $1,361 PSF, up 1.8% quarter-over-quarter and 2.7% year-over-year.
The total number of available new development units decreased 4% quarter-over-quarter in Manhattan to 5,249, well below a high of nearly 9,200 units in 2006. In Brooklyn, available units decreased 22% quarter-over-quarter to approximately 660.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 2
MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,285 $1,417
Contract Signed $2,118 $1,303
Closed $1,928 $1,229
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,538 $1,471
Contract Signed $2,219 $1,361
Closed $2,170 $1,278
MEDIAN PRICE
Active $4,037,500 $1,820,000
Contract Signed $2,850,000 $1,375,000
Closed $2,700,000 $1,684,050
AVERAGE PRICE
Active $6,296,875 $2,315,187
Contract Signed $4,115,023 $1,761,297
Closed $4,593,175 $1,948,643
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
Total 11,128 2015
Units Available 5,249 665
% Closed or Contract Signed
52.8% 67%
39.2%
59%
$2,219 PSF
$5M
5,249
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 3
Introduction METHODOLOGY:
§ All data is provided by proprietary
Halstead Property Development
Marketing research.
§ This report tracks new development
projects only, defined as those new
to the market and currently selling
sponsor units. Buildings that have
fully sold out of sponsor units are
not included, even though they may
have recently been built. Resale data
is not included in this report.
§ All listings were compiled as of
3/20/17.
§§ Total§Inventory is defined as all units
within new development projects
that are currently listed as Active,
Contract Signed, or Closed, as well
as those units not yet released
to the market. Available§Units is
defined as new development units
that are currently listed as Active
as well as those not yet released
to the market. These numbers
include units released prior to 2017,
provided they are in a project that
has not sold out all sponsor units.
By including currently unreleased
units that are not yet listed as
Active this data provides a unique
and comprehensive analysis of the
current new development market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET OVERVIEW ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
MARKET OVERVIEW BY QUARTER ... . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT ... . . . .7
ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
TOTAL INVENTORY ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
FURTHER INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
HPDM is pleased to present our New
Development Report for Q1 2017.
This report focuses exclusively on the
NYC new development condominium
market, and aims to be the only report
of its kind presenting a comprehensive
picture of new development activity.
New development is unique from
the overall real estate market in that
closings often do not occur for 12 to
18 months after a buyer enters into
contract. Therefore, to fully understand
this market it is critical to track active
listings, listings in contract, closed
listings, as well as total inventory. This
report analyzes Q1 2017 as a whole
and is also a snapshot of current new
development market conditions.
In Manhattan, pricing for new
development units entering into
contract in Q1 2017 fell 2.8% quarter-
over-quarter to $2,219 PSF from
$2,285 in Q4 2016, but rose 4.9%
year-over-year from $2,114 PSF in
Q1 2016. Avg. PPSF for closed new
development units fell 5.4% quarter-
over-quarter to $2,170, and remained
essentially flat year-over-year, rising
just 0.5% from $2,160 in Q1 2016. In
Brooklyn, new development entering
into contract averaged $1,361 PSF, up
1.8% quarter-over-quarter and 2.7%
year-over-year. Avg. PPSF for closed
new development in Brooklyn rose 1.1%
year-over-year to 1,278.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 5
NUMBER OF UNITS
GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS
100
200
300
400
500
600
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
Ground Up vs. Conversions - Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.
33
28
80
61
4
50
364
281
$1,
09
9
$2,5
41
$2,2
09
$5
,25
9
$2,0
98
$2,4
66
$1,
28
9
$2,1
24
$2,4
06
$1,
68
8
$1,
93
1
$2,3
85
$1,
58
0
CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED
GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Market OverviewDowntown saw the most development activity in Manhattan in Q1 2017 with more than 360 units either entering into
contract or closing. Next to Billionaire’s Row, Midtown East shows the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,689 with
Downtown only slightly lower at $2,683 per Sq. Ft. The highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. for Contract Signed deals in Q1 2017
occurred in Midtown East, with an average of $2,532 PSF, up 21% year-over-year from $2,094 PSF in Q1 2016, due primarily to
sales at 252 East 57th Street.
ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd*Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,3
30
$2,1
19
$6
,26
2
$2,5
04
$2,8
79
$1,
96
3
$2,8
86
$1,
75
0
$3
,911
$2,1
43
$2,4
22
$1,
726
$1,
924
$1,
619
$4
,98
2
$1,
90
8
$2,0
17
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$2,2
26
$2,0
23
$1,
24
5
$2,2
57
$2,2
63
$2,3
86
$1,
08
1
$2,1
82
$1,
99
5
$1,
93
9
$2,0
52
$2,3
34
$1,
64
3
$5
,83
1
$4
,434 $
5,5
34
$2,6
89
$2,5
32
$1,
86
7 $2,6
83
$2,3
71
$2,4
79
$1,
471
$1,
36
1
$1,
278
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 6
Market Overview by Quarter
CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
$2,3
25
$1,
24
5
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$1,
373
$1,
922
$1,
910
$5
,10
9
$2,1
40
$2,2
81
$1,
322
$1,
117
$1,
875
$1,
98
7
$5
,48
6
$1,
95
8
$2,3
41
$1,
378
$1,
118
$2,0
90
$1,
729
$6
,18
8
$2,1
97
$2,5
89
$1,
322
$1,
09
9
$1,
96
4
$1,
970
$5
,25
9
$2,0
98
$2,4
29
$1,
311
$2,1
40
$2,0
32
$2,2
51
$2,3
03
The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter.
Midtown West experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in Average
PPSF at 13.9%, rising to $1,970 PSF, due largely to sales at 16 West 40th Street
and 460 West 42nd Street. The Upper West Side experienced the second largest
quarter-over-quarter increase, rising 2.3% to $2,303 PSF in Q1 2017. Meanwhile,
Avg. PPSF in Brooklyn remained essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at $1,311.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 7
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in
Manhattan for Q1 2017 was $3,130 PSF, achieved in the West Village, followed by
West Chelsea at $2,823. The highest average Closed pricing outside of Billionaire’s
Row occurred in West Chelsea at $4,235 PSF due to sales at 551 West 21st Street,
followed by the West Village at $3,416 PSF.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight
UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
DOWNTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Harlem UWS UES MidtownWest
MidtownEast
Chelsea WestChelsea
Hell’sKitchen
GramercyPark
Billionaire’sRow*
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$6,000
$7,000
$5,000
$2,0
23
$2,2
57
$2,2
53
$2,3
86
$2,18
2
$1,9
95
$1,
93
9 $2,7
85
$2,7
90
$5
,83
1
$4
,43
4
$5
,53
4
$2,6
89
$2,5
32
$1,
86
7
$2,7
60
$2,4
15
$2,18
5 $3
,24
4
$2,8
23
$4
,23
5
$1,
66
1
$1,
56
0
$1,6
43
$1,
63
6$1,
24
5
$1,
08
1
$2,1
47
Flatiron GreenwichVillage
SoHo NoHo LES FinancialDistrict
TriBeCa WestVillage
EastVillage
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$6,000
$7,000
$5,000
$3
,44
8
$3
,00
5
$2,4
94
$2,6
58
$2,9
09
$2,7
94
$2,5
18
$2,7
09
$3
,355
$3
,13
0
$3
,416
$1,
919
$2,2
92
$2,1
00
$1,
83
1
$1,
93
6
$2,19
8
$2,1
75
$2,0
83
$2,7
46
$3
,214
$2,5
18
$2,5
65
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 8
Analysis by Unit TypeMANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
MANHATTAN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
BROOKLYN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
MANHATTAN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
BROOKLYN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
$10M
$5M
$15M
$20M
$25M
$30M
$35M
40
378
521
400
50
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
500
400
300
200
100
600
700
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$1.
16M
$9
99
K
$1.
12M
$1.
21M
$1.
42M
$1.
66
M
$3
.08
M
$2.6
M
$3
.16
M
$6
.4M
$5
.4M
$5
.68
M
$8
.01M
$8
.07M
$9
.12M
$13
.85
M
$11
.25
M
$15
.59
M
208
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$6
47K
$9
98
K $1.
68
M
$2.5
9M
$3
.97M
$728
K
$9
15K
$1.
38
M
$2.0
9M $
3.1
3M
$9
00
K
$6
22K $1.
58
M
$2.1
9M
25
50
75
100
125
150
$1M
$2M
$3M
$4M
$5M
$6M
12
115 159 13529
$3
.64
M
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
23
10
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
182
29
7
26
2
146
79 10
3
77
24
5
117 121
61 38
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
12 5
35
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
66
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
42
53
45
16
4
39 4
1
30
3
34
65
60
2 10
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 6
In Q1 2017 two bedroom units continued to experience the most deal volume by unit type in Manhattan, with over 220 two
bedroom units entering into contract or closing. Similarly, in Brooklyn two bedroom units saw the most deal volume by
unit type in Q1 2017 with more than 105 units entering into contract or closing. Median Contract Signed pricing for two
bedrooms in Manhattan remained flat quarter-over-quarter at $2.6M, while dropping 10% year-over-year from $2.89M in Q1
2016. In Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for two bedrooms declined 5.4% year-over-year to $1.38M, down from
$1.46M in Q1 2016. In Manhattan, two bedrooms show the most Active listings at nearly 300, with three bedrooms close
behind at 262. Two bedrooms also comprise the most Active listings in Brooklyn with 53, while three and one bedrooms
follow closely with 45 and 42 units respectively.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 9
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
39
.2%
11.3
%
11%
6.4
%
14.9
%
17.2
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
18.2
%
39
.4%
17.4
%
11.5
%
3%
7.3
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
27.2
%
16.6
%
11.3
%
8%
27.6
%
9.3
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
31.
9%
45
.4%
16%
2.5
%
1.7%
2.5
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
11.1
%
13.4
%
10.8
%
7.7
%
28
.7%
28
.4%
1.2%
3.5
%
6.4
%
26
.3%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
17%
45
.6%
39.2% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan are priced above $5M,
down from 42.4% at the end of 2016, and well below a high of 52% in Q1 2015. 13.3%
of Active listings remain priced above $10M, down from 15.6% at year-end 2016.
Q1 2017 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN — ACTIVE
Q1 2017 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN — ACTIVE
MANHATTAN — CONTRACT SIGNED
BROOKLYN — CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN — CLOSED
MANHATTAN — CLOSED
In Manhattan the total percentage of new development deals entering contract
under $5M remained flat quarter-over-quarter at 72.4%, but fell year-over-year
from 78.5%. Conversely, the percentage of deals over $5M remained flat quarter-
over-quarter at 27.6%, but rose from 21.5% year-over-year.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 10
OOSTENtheoosten.com
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 11
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
The largest amount of total inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Upper East
Side, followed closely by the Financial District and the Lower East Side. In Brooklyn
the highest total inventory is found in Williamsburg, Prospect Heights, and Boerum
Hill. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the
corresponding percentage of units sold.
MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY
BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FINANCIALDISTRICT
LESWEST EASTVILLAGE VILLAGE
TRIBECANOHOSOHOGREEN.VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAM.PARK
HELL'SKITCHEN
WESTCHELSEA
CHELSEAMIDTOWNEAST
BN.ROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
UESUWSHARLEM
54%
40%
82%
66%
81%
60%
17%
63%
42%45%
69
4
34
419
1,26
9
183
1,0
51
114
34
0199
25
2 38
3
370
PERCENTAGE SOLD
79%
62%
54%
66%
46%
67%
37%
65%
16%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
94
1
1,3
90
54
4
39
0 54
3
36
8
710
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
PROSPECTHEIGHTS
GREENPOINTDUMBOBOERUM HILLCLINTON HILLCARROLL GARDENS
BROOKLYNHEIGHTS
86%
53%62%
PERCENTAGE SOLD
317
188
34
5
PARK SLOPE
54%
115
WILLIAMSBURG
55%
48
2
943216
6
69
88%
61%
61%
CROWN HEIGHTS
36
100%
74%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
100
200
300
500
400
600
Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either
Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the
market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently
listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units
released prior to 2017, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor
units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by
including unreleased units.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 First Quarter Report | 12
Further Insight
Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development
activity by volume in Q1 2017, followed by Brooklyn and the Upper East Side. In
Manhattan, over 330 units entered into contract in Q1 2017, an increase of 11.4%
year-over year from just under 300 units in Q1 2016. In Brooklyn, over 120 units
entered into contract in Q1 2017, an 8.8% year-over-year increase from just over
110 units in Q1 2016. These numbers include units that entered into contract and
closed within the same quarter.
Two bedroom units in Brooklyn remain more efficiently sized than those in Manhattan,
while one bedrooms are becoming more similarly sized in each borough. Median size for
two bedroom units in Brooklyn is 1253 sq.ft., while the median for two bedroom units in
Manhattan is 1474 sq. ft. Median size for one bedroom units in Brooklyn is 738 sq.ft., while
the median for one bedroom units in Manhattan is 791 sq. ft.
NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE
BKLYN**UPPERMANHATTAN
DOWNTOWNBNROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
MIDTOWNEAST
UWSUES
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
84
73
67
70 3
0
53
9
85
165
36
19 17 33
29
32
1
168
31
163
44
9 3
196
35
172
100
200
300
400
500
600
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5 BR4 BR3 BR2 BR1 BRSTUDIO
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
56
6 79
1 2,2
47
511 7
38
1,70
5
1,4
74
1,25
3
3,0
82
4,3
83
2,4
52
4,2
26
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
Contact
445 Park Avenue, 10th Floor | New York, NY 10022
HPDMNY.com
212 521 5757
200 Water StreetDUMBO200water.com
498 West End AvenueUpper West Side498wea.com
Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Director of Market Research and AnalyticsThe information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM’s prior consent.
For questions or comments regarding this report please contact [email protected]