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Managing Asset Decumulation Risk in Capital Accumulation Plans
Hosted by the Ontario Regional Council May 8, 2014
Twenty Toronto Street Toronto, ON
Managing Asset Decumulation Risk in Capital Accumulation Plans
Hosted by the Ontario Regional Council May 8, 2014
Twenty Toronto Street Toronto, ON
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Managing Asset Decumulation Risk in Capital Accumulation Plans
Paul Partridge GRS Investment Director
Manulife Financial
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Retirement risks
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We look forward to the perfect retirement
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Its not always an easy path
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Does the plan protect against the risk ?
Plan Inflation
Market volatility
Longevity Liquidity Behaviour
Estate planning
Defined Benefit Plans
Med High High Low High Low
DC / CAP Plans Med Low Low High Low High
Adapted from the QWeMa Group Inc.
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Member understanding How much
should I contribute ?
Do I need a Financial
Plan? How much will I need to retire?
What do I invest in?
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Current guaranteed income options
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CAP / DC Plan basics • Most Service Providers have implemented the following
options for members to receive income • Annuity • Transfer assets to Group RRIF/LIF/LRIF/PRIF plan • Allow withdrawals from existing plans when
permitted • Combination of the above
• Member is also able to transfer their assets to another
financial institution / product or redeem
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Frequently used investments for income • Target Date Funds
• Member stays invested in Target Date fund and asset mix automatically changes over time
• Target equity content is 20-40% at and during retirement for most Target Date programs in Canada
• GIAs, Money market, Fixed income, Balanced, Equity
income (dividend, REITs), and Equity funds
• Specialty guaranteed income products • Limited choice
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Sponsors are embracing target date funds
Number of Funds
2006 37
2007 50
2008 87
2009 148
2010 150
2011 162
2012 188
Source: Investor Economics Group Retirement and Savings Report, January 2013
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Current guaranteed options available Product category Cashable
GMWB (IncomePlus) Non-cashable deferred
annuity
Invested in markets Yes – some sort of balanced mandate No
Guaranteed income for life
5% of Guaranteed Benefit Base (i.e., total deposits)
Depends upon interest rates at time of deferred
annuity purchase
Potential for higher income later Yes – due to bonus or reset No
Liquid / cashable Yes – invested in segregated funds
No – only under certain life events
Risk to insurance provider Equity (high) Duration mismatch (low)
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Service Provider Hurdles / Issues
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Its complicated !
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
Gua
rant
eed
Ben
efit
Bas
e ($
)
Ret
irem
ent
Assumptions:
$15,000 initial transfer into Group IncomePlus $2,000 annual contributions
3% enhancement per year
Begin contributions at 60
Retire at 65
Guaranteed Annual Income Amount - $1,350.55
May
9, 2
011
May
9, 2
012
May
9, 2
013
May
9, 2
014
Guaranteed Benefit Base - $27,011
May
9, 2
010
Feb
1, 2
010
Chart is for illustration purpose only
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Key considerations Simplicity
Member (and market sources) needs to understand product and/or have access to advice
Complexity has plagued retirement income products in the past
Flexibility Members prefer liquidity don’t necessarily want to lock away their assets and give up
market value
Sustainability Solution needs to have acceptable pricing and risk to the Service
Provider
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Key considerations (cont’d) Affordability
Guaranteed income needs to be affordable to the member System / process build(s) can be significant for the Service
Provider
Portability Plans desire the option to transfer guarantees to a new Service
Provider Service Model
Products need to be accompanied by the right education, advice and service
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Provide a great solution …..
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….. but will they come?
Service Provider makes option
available
Market Source
analyzes option
Market Source
supports option
Plan sponsor
adds option
Member under-stands option
Member selects option
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U.S. Group based retirement income products
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US providers have refocused on providing steady income in retirement
Source: Corporate Executive Board, The Future of Retirement Income, 2012
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Plan sponsors considering in-plan retirement income solutions
Source: Corporate Executive Board, The Future of Retirement Income, 2012
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Target date funds with embedded income
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Managed payout solutions
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Other ideas for assisting with retirement risks
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Product allocation Product Inflation
Market
volatility Longevity Liquidity Behaviour
Estate
planning Annuity
Low High High Low High Low
Seg / Mutual Fund withdrawals
High Low Low High Low Med
Market-based Guaranteed income solutions
Med High Med Med Med Med
There is no single product solution that covers all risks
Adapted from the QWeMa Group Inc.
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• Education / advertising • Tools to assist members contributing
• Auto-enrollment • Auto-escalation • Mandatory PRPP
Increase member contributions
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• More than just a financial plan • Have you planned for health concerns? • What does retirement really mean? • Will a hobby or volunteer work be fulfilling? • What happens if?
2014 Manulife / Ipsos Reid – Health & Wealth Wellness Study
Life planning
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Hybrid Annuity Products
Robert Klosa Director, Product Development
Sun Life Financial
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Agenda
• Why is decumulation different? • Annuity + managed withdrawal solutions • Hybrid product examples • Why some good ideas don’t get built
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Have you ever serviced
your own Brakes?
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• Retirement Planning is a human problem not just a technical problem
• You can offer the ‘optimal’ product solution and still not succeed – Building good products is necessary but not
sufficient • It’s a team sport and you need to do it all
– Simplicity, nudging, education, advice, service etc.
Human Problems are complicated…
Retirement Risks
Why decumulation is different.
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Accumulation – Risk-Return Paradigm
• Well established framework
• Risk is volatility • Optimization
Risk
Ret
urn
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Decumulation – Competing Paradigms
• Multiple Frameworks • Hard to classify & compare • Risk is multi-dimensional • Trade Offs
% of Lifetime Spending Needs Met
Esta
te V
alue
80%Equity + 20% Bond
80%Equity + 20% Life Annuity
Pfau, 2011
20%Equity + 80% Bond
Annuities
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Annuities • What do you want? A pension. • What does that mean to you?
• Simple • Guaranteed lifetime income
• What about an Annuity? No thanks! 1. I can do better!
• ‘Bad time to buy’ 2. Liquidity
• What if I need money? • What if I die?
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What if I die? Payout per $100,000
6.9% 6.6% 6.0%
5.1%
6.4% 6.3% 5.9%
4.7%
5.4% 5.4% 5.3%
3.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Life Life + 10 Life +20 Life + 3%
Male - Age 65Source: ImmediateAnnuities.com.
As retirement risk decreases income will decline
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35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
How you buy an Annuity impacts Perceptions
Life Annuity
Contingent Annuitization
Auto-Annuitization
Deferred Annuity
Longevity Insurance (Long Deferred
Annuity)
Managed Withdrawals
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• Probabilistic – Specify income in advance based on a model – e.g. Simple retirement calculator at retirement – e.g. Level lifetime income with 90% probability of success indexed to
inflation aka ‘4% rule’ • Contingent
– Income varies based on some measured variable – e.g. Simple retirement calculator repeated through retirement – e.g. ‘4%’ rule recalculated every n-years + floor/ceiling
• Proportional – Specify proportion of assets to liquidate – e.g. RIF table, RMD in US
Managed Withdrawals
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• Depends on assumptions and model
• Investment income + return of capital – Contingent withdrawal schemes
‘maximize’ total income but introduce variability
– For moderate risk aversion annuities are hard to beat even at today’s low interest rates
Realistic Withdrawal Rate?
Greater Safety
Higher Income
Hybrid Products
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• Normally built up from pre-existing ‘tried and true’ products
• Seeks to marry the benefits /offset weakness of one or more products or strategies
• Embeds advice • Simplifies product allocation • Look at two very general examples
– Real products typically integrate other features including asset allocation etc.
Hybrid Products
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Benefits • Low cost • Simple • Embedded advice • Solves for longevity • Higher income
Long Deferred Annuity + Managed Withdrawal
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%
M65 M75 M85
Deferring purchase of Immediate Annuity vs Deferred Annuity - $100K
Single Premium Immediate Annuity
Deferred Annuity
Source: ImmediateAnnuities.com
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Long Deferred Annuity + Managed Withdrawal
Challenges • Required/maximum withdrawals • Taxation without income • Long dated asset supply • Longevity risk capacity
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Benefits • Dollar cost average into
annuities • Guaranteed income at
retirement with liquidity • Integrates well with popular
target date concept
Auto-Annuitization
Challenges • Big enough to matter? • Liability for in plan
annuities • Liquidity / Anti-selection • Demand vs Cost
Why some good ideas don’t get built
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Member
Consultant / Advisor
Sun Life Society
(Regulatory)
Sponsor
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1. Doesn’t solve problem better than existing products
2. Low demand
3. Profitability
4. Regulations
5. Complexity
6. Risk Constraints
7. Investment Constraints
Why good ideas don’t get built
Will the Plan add it?
Will the member buy it?
Present Value of Revenue net of Cannibalization
Present Value of fixed and variable costs
Target Market
$?
Sales Potential Profitability
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• Building new products is risky business • It helps if you share:
– What you like and don’t like about existing products
– What kinds of solutions you would like to see and would actually add to your plan
– How we can implement solutions that are defaults or auto-on
Supporting Income Solutions