Making the NHL Playoffs

Dustin SchneiderLawrence Mulcahy

Objective

• To predict the chance of a NHL team making the playoffs based on average game stats.

• Logistic regression will be used to model and predict which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs.

• The data set used will be limited to the 3 seasons prior to the lockout.

Logistic Regression

• Type of statistical model used to work with a response variable that has two outcomes: success or failure.

• If we allow the response variable to take on the value of 1 or 0, the mean is the proportion of 1 and P(success) = p.

• Logistic regression, however, is based on odds instead of the proportions of the outcomes.

Odds

• The population odds are defined as:

where p is the proportion of the event.

• If we have a proportion of .3333, then the odds are

• The form of the logistic regression model is:

• The proportion in this model is actually the proportion of failure.

• The model can use more than 1 predictor variable.

Concordant Data

• Begin by creating all possible pairs of observation with different responses.

• Each pair is then classified as a discordant pair or a concordant pair.

• The more concordant pairs the better the model.

Predictor variable: pointsln(p/1-p) = 29.6968 – 0.3416(points)

Predictor variable: Goals against per game

ln(p/1-p) = -18.0235 + 6.8572(GA/G)

Predictor variable: Goals per gameln(p/1-p) = 18.6687 – 7.2638(G/G)

Predictor variable: Power Play % ln(p/1-p) = 7.1231 - .4530(PP%)

Predictor variables: Penalty kill % ln(p/1-p) = 35.701 – 0.4278(PK%)

Predictor variables: G/G GA/G PP% PK%

ln(p/1-p) = 14.5743 – 9.3229(G/G) + 8.3898(GA/G) – 0.4983 PP% - 0.0521 PK%

Predictor variables: G/G GA/G PP% ln(p/1-p) = 9.4912 – 9.3015 G/G + 8.6026 GA/G - .4906 PP%

Predictor variables: G/G GA/G ln(p/1-p) = 5.3741 – 10.1836 G/G + 8.0720 GA/G

ActivityProfessor Hartlaub wants to place a bet on one

of the following teams making the playoffs. Which team should he choose to bet on?

New York Rangers(NYR)Columbus Blue Jackets(CBJ)Montreal Canadiens (MTL)http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?navid=NAV|STS|Teams

Hint

Resources

• NHL.com• http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2685041

.pdf