Equities investment in challenging markets

What the markets have being doing over the last twelve months

The last twelve months have been incredibly difficult for the markets we have seen the FTSE100 fall 250 points (-4.1%) over the last twelve months but the range from high to low in this period has been even greater with highs in excess of 6000 and lows falling below 5000 a range of approximately 22% . the graph below illustrates the movement. As you can see from this there are plenty of opportunities to ride the market profitably or exploit individual investments opportunities and achieve results that outperform the market.

The FTSE 250 losing in excess of 7.0% in the last twelve months and the AIM (Alternative Investment Market) losing over 19%

Even within the UK markets there is significant variation in performance

Despite this apparent poor trading background there are a significant number of shares that have done extremely well. If we analyse the vast majority of the

shares that makeup the FTSE ALLSHARE index and break them into groups of10% (approx 60 equities per group) based on performance (increase in share price) over the last 100 days we get a performance profile that is shown in the chart below

This graph shows you a group of shares that have achieve an average growth in excess of 60% over the last 100 trading days. The measurement has been made by setting prices on day to 100 and then measuring the movement against this base. Then measuring the rate and pattern of increase over the period

Below is a list of equities, which have achieved over 20% growth in 100 days and form part of the top four performing groups in graph above We have set the opening price to a base of 100 with the latest and peak prices been measured against this base

Equity

Base opening

price

closing price

highest price

IP Group 100.0 208.2 208.2

Ashtead Group 100.0 174.6 174.6

Anite 100.0 176.2 176.2

Mecom Group 100.0 132.7 147.3

Imagination Technologies Group 100.0 173.6 173.6

888 Holdings 100.0 167.9 169.5

Collins Stewart Hawkpoint 100.0 135.5 137.7

Wolseley 100.0 144.0 144.0

Optos 100.0 132.3 142.1bwin.party digital entertainment 100.0 143.2 143.6

Yell Group 100.0 131.1 139.3

Fenner 100.0 130.8 132.7

Old Mutual 100.0 134.5 134.5

Micro Focus International 100.0 135.2 137.9

Barratt Developments 100.0 151.3 151.3

Hunting 100.0 125.1 125.6

Atkins (W S) 100.0 134.0 134.0

Fiberweb 100.0 129.2 129.2

Barclays 100.0 149.3 149.3

NCC Group 100.0 119.6 124.5

Regus 100.0 146.8 146.8

ITV 100.0 141.6 141.6

Premier Farnell 100.0 133.0 138.3

easyJet 100.0 144.4 144.4

The graph below shows the individual performance of the leading half dozen of these shares

Picking the winners

It’s easy to identify who these winners are after the event here at Blencathra Futures we have developed a model that analyses the trends in share price movements assess their strengths and estimates future growth. It can review several hundred shares in less than sixty seconds and identify those shares that are going to perform

The Blencathra Futures trading model is something new in technical analysis - we have moved away from the tired old charting approaches and developed a set of powerful algorithms that will transform your approach to trading strategies

The Blencathra Futures trading model uses the power of Microsoft Excel VBA and will run on your

Microsoft Office. All you need to is down load the data, set your risk and performance parameters

and you can in less than two minutes review 1500 shares and identify those that meet or exceed

your criteria. You can investigate individual shares in detail, monitor them within your portfolio,

receive sell watch and hold flags, and use the power chart presentations to aid your decisions

You set your targets for growth

You set your levels of risk tolerance for each growth target

The system then evaluates the trading patterns of every share, commodity and bond held on the data base a thousand items are evaluated in less than 90 seconds

You are then provided with a list of shares etc that show the best prospects of meeting or exceeding your expectations

From this list you can then examine individual shares etc in detail .

Tables will show you how the shares have been evaluated and the rating of future prospects

The key evaluation factors are also produced in charts to aid visual understanding of the projections

Examples of reports on the Blencathra Futures equity price prediction model

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50.0

70.0

90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

170.0

190.0Index Comparator

Anite FTSE 100Days

price

Days forward 5/10 days10/20 days

20/40 days

30/60 days

40/80 days

50/100 days

Projected price 99.5 102.5 104.7 106.1 111.8 123.6

Growth estimates 1.3% 4.3% 6.5% 8.0% 13.7% 25.7%

Volatility 92.0% 94.4% 94.6% 93.0% 94.3% 93.1%

Volatility10 Growth 10 Total 20 Decline 0

Days forward 5/10 days10/20 days

20/40 days

30/60 days

40/80 days

50/100 days

Projected price 5,651.4 5,745.1 5,840.3 6,101.5 6,048.4 6,209.6

Growth estimates -1.0% 0.7% 2.3% 6.9% 6.0% 8.8%

Volatility 79.8% 43.5% 89.3% 93.3% 83.4% 88.1%

Volatility10 Growth 0 Total 10