Luton’s Labour Market: Facts, Figures and the Future

TBR’s Skills and Labour Market Team:Jonathan Guest, Research ConsultantMichael Johnson, Senior Research Consultant

15/10/2012

Structure

• Introduction• Luton’s economy & key sectors• Luton’s labour market and trends• Skills supply & demand• Skills gaps and shortages• Young people in Luton• Luton’s Future: the workforce & economy of

tomorrow• Questions

Introduction• TBR – Skills and Economic Development

Consultancy• Remit: Develop up to date evidence for LBC

particularly:– Data to understand and monitor skills & employment

in the local area, now and in the future. – Data that will support the interpretation of indicators

and stimulate discussion.

• Comparison Areas (Coventry, Blackburn, Bradford, Oldham, East of England and England)

• Methodology

Luton’s Economy

• What is the current situation?- Dominance of service industries- Decline of manufacturing- Rise of banking, finance & insurance

• Enterprise in Luton – Strong in new firm formation

Key Sectors• Airport & Aerospace, Engineering & Automotive, ICT and Electronics

(and Software) & Creative Industries

Source: TCR 2012 - TBR Ref: W3/C1

Total number of Firms & Employment

4,650

6,120

2,810

4,470

360

520

360

70

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

ICT & Electronics Automotive & Engineering Creative Industries Airport & Aerospace

Employment

Firms

Labour Market Trends in Luton

• Unemployment rate in Luton is 10.3%, which is above the unemployment rate in England (8.2%)

• The economic inactivity rate in Luton has crept up since 2004 by almost 4 percentage points (6.4% to 10.3%).

• Causes:– Individuals being students (32%)– Looking after family/home (36%).

• Unlike other areas, long-term sick does not drive economic inactivity in Luton (13.4% compared with 21.2% in England).

Luton’s Labour Market

• Luton’s population: 199,200 • Working Age Population: 130,500• Compared to England, there is a smaller proportion of

Luton’s working-age population with:– NQF level 2 qualifications or above (62.8% in Luton to 72.7% in

England)– NQF level 3 qualifications or above (42.1% to 52.7%)– NQF level 4 qualifications or above (24.8% to 33.5%)

• Proportion of working age without a qualification in Luton (15.67%) is much higher than England average (9.9%).

Skill Supply • Approximately 6,500 people from Luton attended University in

2010/11 – many in London and the East of England. • The University of Bedfordshire has over 20,000 students studying in

2010/11. • Three main Further Education providers (Barnfield College, Luton

Sixth Form College, etc) maintained the volume of successfully completed programmes by those aged 19 or over between 2005/6 and 2010/11.

• Starts of apprenticeships increased since 2005 but still lower than the comparator areas.

• According to past business surveys, few companies have linkages with local universities.

Skills Profile

No Qualification

27.7%29.3%

35.5%

29.8%

25.6%

36.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Luton Oldham Coventry Blackburn Bradford England

11.7%

10.2%

9.0% 9.4%10.0%

6.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Luton Oldham Coventry Blackburn Bradford England

Level 4 and above

APS 2010 - TBR ref: C15 & C15.1

Skill Demand • Hard-to-fill vacancies are most likely to have been

experienced by firms in:– Manufacturing (12%) – Accommodation & food services (31%).

• Roles include:– Sales Assistants and Retail Cashiers – Other Elementary Service Occupations – Information Technology and Telecommunication – Engineering Professionals

• Reasons include: lack of applicants with the required skills and applicants lacking the qualifications the company demands

Skills Demand

Occupation by SOC VacanciesNotified

OccupationsSought

7111 : Sales and retail assistants 37 2,0909149 : Other goods handling and storage occupations n.e.c. 52 7104150 : General office assistants/clerks 13 5159134 : Packers, bottlers, canners, fillers 0 2758212 : Van drivers 43 2409233 : Cleaners, domestics 38 2106115 : Care assistants and home carers 153 1957212 : Customer care occupations 46 1659121 : Labourers in building and woodworking trades 52 1409223 : Kitchen and catering assistants 25 130

August 2012 – Top 10 Vacancies Occupations Sought (and Vacancies Notified)

JCP (2012) TBR: W1

Skills Gaps & Shortages

Supply & Demand Uncovering Employer Needs

Unemployed Gaps and Shortages

Skills Mismatch

Skills Gaps & Shortages

• Technical, practical or job specific skills: – e.g. Engineering and technician skills, job specific but

also linked to STEM skills.• Sales and marketing

– e.g. Numeracy & Literacy - soft skills (listening, language)

• Customer service skills & communication skills:– e.g. Soft skills, team working, customer service.

• Knowledge of English among non-native speakers

Employment & Young People• NEETs – Rise between 2010 and 2011 of 26%.

– Luton’s proportion of NEETs (7.4%) is higher than the regional (6%) and national average (6.1%).

• GCSEs – Slightly higher proportion of pupils getting 5 A*-C grades

than national average.

• Apprenticeships– In 2012, 7% of businesses employed apprentices.

Sector Enrolments – Higher Level Enrolments – Lower Level Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Technologies 60 20Business Information Technology & Telecommunication 150 20Building Services Engineering 120 20Customer Service & Contact Centre 30 140Total 1,110 880

JCP (2012) TBR: W1:S14.4

Apprenticeship Enrolments in Luton 2012

Future prospects

• Forecasts for 2012, 2017, 2022, 2027 and 2032:– Sector forecasts– Occupation forecasts– Skills forecasts

• Methodology & Data:– APS, Working Futures, EEFM.

Luton’s Future: The workforce & economy of tomorrow

TBR 2012 - TBR Ref: W2/C5

Luton’s Future: The workforce & economy of tomorrow

TBR 2012 - TBR Ref: W2/C7

Luton’s Future: The workforce & economy of tomorrow

TBR 2012 - TBR Ref: W2/C6

Future prospects – Assets

• University & FE Colleges• Growth industries and hubs for hi-tech industries at Butterfield

Business Park and aerospace focusing around the Airport• Regeneration (The Mall, St George’s Square and Railway Station) • Transport links including rail and road networks• Carnival Arts Centre

Questions

Turn on keypad

Press down On/off button for a few seconds and the word Qwizdom will

appear

Slide Button to the rightand your remote number will appear on screen

Turn on keypad

Don’t forget to press send

Just before you go to sleep, you notice a huge spider

on the bedroom wall. Would you

A. Ignore it and go to sleepB. Kill the spiderC. Carefully take the spider outsideD. Get someone else to deal with itE. Panic!

Question 1

• Which of the following issues most inhibits the skills system from delivering better outcomes?A. Lack of employer commitment to trainingB. Information, advice and guidance available to

individuals is inadequateC. Inflexibility of public funding mechanismsD. Quality of the training available too often failing to

meet the required standard

Question 2

• Which sector will do most to drive future economic growth in Luton?A. Airport & AerospaceB. Automotive & EngineeringC. Creative IndustriesD. ICT and Electronics (and software)

Question 3

• What is the biggest challenge facing Luton’s labour market?A. Low aspirations of those seeking employmentB. Long-term unemployment restricting the supply of

work-ready residentsC. Depressed economic conditions leading to employers

not hiringD. Lack of alignment between supply of training and

demand for skillsE. National welfare arrangements providing insufficient

incentive to work

Question 4

• Which of these assets should Luton showcase as its primary economic competitive advantage?A. Transport connectivityB. Education institutionsC. Quality of lifeD. Skilled workforceE. Communications infrastructureF. Value for money (in terms of costs of office space,

relative wages rates etc.)

Question 5

• What area of skills development should Luton prioritise?A. Basic skills provision, to ensure that everyone

seeking work meets basic literacy and numeracy standards

B. Expansion of apprenticeship opportunities, to offer young people the chance to develop practical skills

C. Developing programmes to attract and retain people with high level skills

D. Encouraging lifelong learning to refresh the skills base of the entire adult population