Long range forecast and climate projections for Southeast Europe

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Long range forecast and climate projections for Southeast Europe. Vladimir Djurdjevic South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre. Long Range Forecast Node - Seasonal forecast for SEE -. Probabilistic forecast. provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Long range forecast and climate projections for Southeast EuropeVladimir Djurdjevic South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre

  • Long Range Forecast Node - Seasonal forecast for SEE - provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state in coming season. Probabilistic forecast RCM-SEEVCCC LRF (Long Range Forecast Seasonal Forecast) model start: 16th of each month forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days) model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended toward Caspian Sea 41 ensemble members initial and boundary conditions: ECMWF, resolution:125km results prepared for South East European region in form of: mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data 1961-1990) for month and three months (season) diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation accumulation for specific place) regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Model

  • Probabilistic Long Range ForecastMaps of ensemble meanAdditional: SST anomaly Example for LRF products

  • Examples of LRF products and verification, preliminary results

  • Examples of LRF products and verification, preliminary results

  • Climate change scenarios: Downscaling of SINTEX-G (INGV/CMCC)Coupled regional climate model RCM-SEEVCCC (NCEP Eta Princeton Ocean Model)

    A1B: 2001-2030A1B: 2071-2100A2: 2071-2100

  • Climate change scenarios: The model:

    Fully (two-way) coupled atmosphere-ocean model.

    Atmosphere: NCEP Eta with changed radiation scheme (Chou i Suarez, 1999, Peres et al, 2006)

    Ocean: POM

    Single code, atmosphere+ocean+coupler.

    Hi-frequency coupling, order of minutes.

    A2O: surface turbulent fluxes of momentum and heat, radiation fluxes and precipitation.O2A: sea surface temperature.

    Exchange works without any flux correction.

  • Climate change scenarios: Annual temperature and precipitation change:

    A1B: 2001-2030 A1B: 2071-2100 A2: 2071-2100

  • Regional dynamical downscaling provides information with more details about present climate and future climate changes.Subotica-HorgosSremBanatSumadijaWest MoravaTimokNisava-South MoravaPoceracKosovo Example of RCM-SEEVCCC climate projections application Important for different impact studies especially on regional level: energy, hydrology, agriculture, environmental protection, industry,.. Summer Drying Problem (CLAVIER project) It is well known that Climate models in region of Pannonian valley have significant BIAS, therefore it is necessary to apply more complex BIAS correction for climate change impact. Example: Application of Climate Projections in Vineyard Regions in SerbiaResults for 2071-2100 (A2): growing season: beginning April March growing degree days 1440 2400 duration 200 240 days above tolerable warmer and dryer rest season: beginning one month later first frost date ~15days later number of frost days 90 50 no appearance of critical temp.
  • Primer studije uticaja: Uzgoj vinove loze na teritoriji RS (Vukovic et al, 2010)

    Klasifikacija klimatskih zona pogodnih za uzgoj vinove loze na osnovu vrednosti tri odgovarajuca indexa

  • Some selected resultsHeliothermal index changeDryness index changeCool night index changeduration: 200 240 daysgrowing degree days: 1400 2400number of frost days: 90 50num. of days Tmin

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