Logistic and Intermodal Transport in Serbia

Conference on Logistic

Belgrade, 5 June 2012

01-06-2011

Task A: Market analysis and location selection (8 Working papers)

– selection of location– traffic and market study

Task B: Defining of the institutional framework and promoting the concept of terminal (7 Working papers)

– institutional awareness – terminal concept defined– Workshops and Study tours

Task C: Preliminary design, feasibility studies and preparation of tender dossier (4 Working papers, Preliminary design and Tender dossier)

- design documentation and tender dossier- economic and financial analysis

Project

Logistic chain

Traffic and market study

Envisaged routes: • 3 to 5 trains/week on relation with Rijeka (with antenna

service to Koper) • 2 trains/week to Bar• 2 to 3 trains/week to Germany• 2 to 3 trains/week to Italy• 2 trains/week to Poland/Romania• 2 trains/week to Montenegro• 2 trains/week to Russia?

2-3 trains per day

VrcinVrcin

Pancevo

Pancevo

Ada HujaAda Huja

Pancevacki

RitPancevacki

RitZemunZemun

Bata

jnic

aBa

tajn

ica

Star

a Pa

zova

Star

a Pa

zova

SurcinSurcin

Dob

anov

ciD

oban

ovci

MakisMakis

Selection of location

7

2 loading/unloading trackstruck loading lanehandling areareach stackertemporary storage area

Reverse track

Loading tracks

InboundOutbound

1010 m

Terminal: I phase

Terminal: II phase

II a4 loading/unloading tracksgantry crane

II b4 loading/unloading tracksGantry crane“drive trough” terminal

Phase 1 Unit Costs

Preliminary works 751 600 €

Terminal construction costs   10 759 175 €

Access roads costs   1 038 263 €

Railway connection costs 558 358 €

Investment costs   13 107 396 €

Planning and supervision costs (7%) 7% 917 518 €

Contingencies (10%) 10% 1 310 740 €

Total investment   15 335 654 €

Land expropriation costs (145 ha)   3 594 137 €

Total investment (including land costs) 18 929 791 €

Construction costs BIT (phase 1)

Input data Values

Analysis period 20 years

Discount rate 5%

GDP growth 3% per year

Output data Values

IRR 13.21%

NPV 17.09 million €

Results of CBA

Basic case: 12 trains/week

The investment is no longer economically justified for 7 trains/week!

Results of financial analysis – Business plan

- Income statement is positive from 2018

- 26 % ROE

- EU donation is essential to achieve this result

- Minimum number of trains for financial justification is 8 trains/week!

2013 2014 2015 2018 2022 2024Investment 8 000 000 12 000 000 200 000 Revenues 0 247 959 1 272 556 2 501 802 3 491 091 3 684 552 Costs 143 304 569 098 1 750 626 1 904 741 2 164 189 2 311 490 C/R (%) 2.30 1.38 0.76 0.62 0.63 Operating Profit -143 304 -321 139 -478 070 397 061 1 326 902 1 373 062 Amortisation 0 0 270 000 270 000 320 000 320 000 NET PROFIT -143 304 -321 139 -748 070 127 061 1 006 902 1 053 062 Corporate tax 0 0 0 12 706 100 690 105 306 Result after profit tax -143 304 -321 139 -748 070 114 355 906 212 947 756 Cashflow -143 304 -464 443 -942 513 -278 642 2 965 084 5 562 872

Functional structure

2 functionally independent and separate entities are created under the public company structure

22 employees in Terminal Operator, 8 is Site Development Company

Future tasks

Preparation of urban planning documentation for construction

Application for IPA 2013

Creation of future logistics platform

Attraction of logistic companies and investments

Creating of new jobs

Cooperation

MoIE and City of Belgrade have nominated Beoland as project investor

Preliminary design was submitted to Investor by Consultants

Investor will deal with all investor issues and land expropriation

EU/IPA financing, budget of RS and City of Belgrade

Framework and basic principles of cooperation for project implementation were defined

Creation of public company (Republic of Serbia and City of Belgrade)

Future terminal and logistics zone

Logistcs zone

BIT

THANK YOU

Miodrag PoledicaMinistry of Infrastructure and Energy

poledica@mi.gov.rs011/3616-613