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Local Authority Pension Fund Forum Bournemouth, 9 December 2016

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Page 1: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

Local Authority Pension Fund ForumBournemouth, 9 December 2016

Page 2: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

Glencore: journey to date

2011• IPO after ~40 years as a private business

2013

• Merger with Xstrata creates largest commodity trader in the world and one of the largest mining companies

• New entity combines best practices from both businesses

Today

• Engagement with stakeholders at all levels of the organisation to understand concerns, manage impacts and translate expectations into business practices

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Page 3: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

Climate change and our business: a Glencore report

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New report provides information about how we are managing the opportunities and challenges presented by climate change across our business.

Report focuses on:• Approach to reporting on carbon management

• Asset resilience in a range of climate change scenarios

• Support for the use of renewable technologies

• Engagement with public policy

• Analysis of the coal business in the context of climate change

Next steps:• Meeting the obligations of ‘Aiming for A’ resolution:

report on progress in 2017

Page 4: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

Delivering - AGM Resolution on Climate Change

• Operation-level energy and emission forecasts 2017-2020 to underpin strategic programmes to manage GHG footprint and identify emission reduction opportunities

Emissions Management

• Portfolio testing using 2016 IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios in progress

Portfolio resilience IEA scenarios

• Ongoing engagement with the business to identify and implement projects to reduce emissions

Low carbon R&D & investment strategies

• KPIs to be determined based on understanding of energy and emission forecasts. These likely to be set at an operational level

KPIs and executive incentives

• 2016 Annual Report to include a detailed section on progress to date in meeting ‘Aiming for A’ commitments

• Participation in local carbon policy development

Public policy positions

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Page 5: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

2030450 Scenario

20.7Btce

2030New Policy

23.1Btce

2013Actual

19.3Btce

Global Energy Demand: coal, oil & gas under key scenarios account for ~70% of demand to 2030 even with a US$100 price on carbon

5Source: IEA WEO 2016Btce : billion tonnes of coal equivalent – standardised coal quantity using coal with energy content of 7000kcal/kg or 29.31 GJ/tConverted to metric tonnes based on global average coal energy of 4850kcal/kg nar

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND

29%

25%

31% 21%

28.6% 22.8%

5%

6.2%

2% 10% 1.2%

2.9% 10.6% 4.0%

5.6 Btce8.2 billion tonnes*

5.7 Btce8.3 billion tonnes*

18.3% 26.8% 23.1% 8.5% 3.4% 13.3% 6.5%

COAL RENEWABLESBIO ENERGYHYDROOIL

3.8 Btce5.5 billion tonnes*

NUCLEARGAS

5.5 Btce 4.8 Btce

6.6 Btce 5.3 Btce

6.0 Btce 4.1 Btce 0.9 Btce0.5 Btce

2.0 Btce

0.2 Btce

1.4 Btce0.7 Btce

2.5 Btce

0.9 Btce

1.8 Btce

0.7 Btce

2.8 Btce

1.3 Btce

Page 6: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

Regional demand: Asia drives coal electricity generation capacity growth to 2030 remaining the fuel of choice to meet industrialisation and urbanisation goals

Asia share of generation capacity• 1990 = 22%• 2000 = 38%• 2010 = 58%• 2020 = 70%• 2030 = 75%

Source: Platts World Electric Power Plant Database 2015 & Glencore Analysis & IEA WEO 2016 6

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GW Installed Coal Generation Capacity by Country/RegionSouth AmericaCentral AmericaNth AmericaEuropeMediterraneanAfricaOther AsiaTaiwanKoreaJapanIndiaChinaAsia TotalWEO 2016 New PolicyWEO 2016 Current Policy

Page 7: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

Products analysis: electric vehicles drive demand for nickel and cobalt

EV revolution driving battery demand:

• Transition from consumer products to xEV/Energy Storage Systems (ESS)

• From small to large/more powerful batteries and mass production

• Nickel and cobalt chemistry emerging as technology of choice

Regulations on emissions driving EV supply

• Carmakers need fleet electrification to reach regulatory targets

• Tesla led the charge so far but big car makers catching up, with BMW, Porsche, Audi announcing new electric car models

Government subsidies help make EV affordable for the moment, but secure material supply is key

• Subsidies, investment in charging infrastructure and technology improvements drive EV acceptance and growing demand

• Car manufacturers need to decrease USD/kwh battery costs and ensure competitive supply chain

• Market players already looking to secure raw material at low cost

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Page 8: Local Authority Pension Fund Forum

Thank you

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