Livestock evacuation or not: An emergency response assessment of natural disasters
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- 1. Livestock evacuation or not:Livestock evacuation or not: An Emergency Response Assessment Of Natural Disasters Dr. Thomas Wilson Dr. Andr Dantas Professor Jim Cole Resilient Organisations Research Programme Christchurch, New Zealand
- 2. or
- 3. How realistic areHow realistic are our evacuationour evacuation expectations?expectations?
- 4. Presentation outline Context Logistics of livestock evacuation Assessment framework Conclusions Case study
- 5. CONTEXT
- 6. New Zealand
- 7. Context volcanic eruptions
- 8. Context What to do with livestock? Evacuation or not? How to deal with large volumes to be transported? How to coordinate efforts? Which types of animals to evacuate?
- 9. Logistics of livestock evacuation
- 10. Logistics Warning Event observation Event assessment Updating Action Re-assessment Logistics processes and decision making
- 11. Assessment framework
- 12. Assessment framework Define the livestock evacuation scenario Assign available trucks to affected areas Compute loading time Conduct network analysis Identify safe destinations Assess the livestock evacuation performance Decision making
- 13. Case Study
- 14. Case Study Volcanic eruption scenario Location
- 15. Case Study Volcanic eruption scenario Distribution ash fall Given a 50 mm ash fall: 528 farms selected for evacuation; 77,199 hectares; 208 thousand cows; Urban centres exposed to 2mm-ash fall considered not safe destinations;
- 16. Case Study Assignment of available trucks to affected areas Using existing and specifically designed livestock truck and trailer units Full evacuation 5520 truck trips; Full efficient evacuation 5004 truck trips; and Partial (50%) evacuation 2902 truck trips.
- 17. Case Study Computation of loading time
- 18. Case Study Identification of safe destinations Cows evacuated to urban centres located over 200 Km from the volcano
- 19. Case Study Network Analysis Travel Time Total TimeEvacuation Plan Traffic Assignment Method Hours Days Hours Days All or nothing 27,061 1,127.5 43,621 1,817.5 User optimum 27,823 1,159 44,383 1,849 1 (Full Evacuation) System optimum 27,760 1,157 44,320 1847 All or nothing 24,162 1,007 39,174 1,632.5 User optimum 24,698 1,029 39,710 1,654.5 2 (Full efficient evacuation) System optimum 24,641 1,027 39,653 1,652.5 All or nothing 14,013 584 22,719 947 User optimum 14,440 602 23,146 965 3 (Partial evacuation) System optimum 14,413 601 23,119 964
- 20. Case Study Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance Scenario Plan Estimated Loading/ Unloading Time Cost Traffic Assignment Method Estimated Travel Time Cost Total Estimated Evacuation Transport Cost All or nothing 1,304 2,102 User optimum 1,341 2,139 1 (Full Evacuation) 798 System optimum 1,338 2,136 All or nothing 1,164 1,888 User optimum 1,190 1,914 2 (Full efficient Evacuation) 723 System optimum 1,187 1,911 All or nothing 675 1,095 User optimum 696 1,115 3 (Partial evacuation) 419 System optimum 694 1,114
- 21. Case Study Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance Stock Trucks Required Deadline 7 days 10 days 14 days 21 days 28 days Evacuation Scenario 1 264 185 132 88 66 Evacuation Scenario 2 236 165 118 79 59 Evacuation Scenario 3 137 97 69 46 34
- 22. Case Study Decision making extreme difficulty in evacuating the required number of dairy cows in an acceptable period of time; likely and feasible that a small, limited evacuation of livestock of high genetic value and diversity could be undertaken need for at least a 3 month warning to implement an effective evacuation of all livestock.
- 23. Conclusion Each type of hazard will pose different levels of logistics challenge in terms of livestock evacuation; Livestock evacuation due to volcanic eruption: No enough time; Considerable vehicle requirements; Efficiency if sophisticated vehicle control techniques are employed; Doubtful if surrounding farms can accommodate additional cows; Full scale livestock evacuation should NOT be attempted; Mitigation options should be put in place to minimize likely losses.
- 24. Thank you Dr. Andr Dantas Resilient Organisations Research Programme University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand www.resorgs.org.nz
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