Livestock evacuation or not: An emergency response assessment of natural disasters

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1. Livestock evacuation or not:Livestock evacuation or not: An Emergency Response Assessment Of Natural Disasters Dr. Thomas Wilson Dr. Andr Dantas Professor Jim Cole Resilient Organisations Research Programme Christchurch, New Zealand 2. or 3. How realistic areHow realistic are our evacuationour evacuation expectations?expectations? 4. Presentation outline Context Logistics of livestock evacuation Assessment framework Conclusions Case study 5. CONTEXT 6. New Zealand 7. Context volcanic eruptions 8. Context What to do with livestock? Evacuation or not? How to deal with large volumes to be transported? How to coordinate efforts? Which types of animals to evacuate? 9. Logistics of livestock evacuation 10. Logistics Warning Event observation Event assessment Updating Action Re-assessment Logistics processes and decision making 11. Assessment framework 12. Assessment framework Define the livestock evacuation scenario Assign available trucks to affected areas Compute loading time Conduct network analysis Identify safe destinations Assess the livestock evacuation performance Decision making 13. Case Study 14. Case Study Volcanic eruption scenario Location 15. Case Study Volcanic eruption scenario Distribution ash fall Given a 50 mm ash fall: 528 farms selected for evacuation; 77,199 hectares; 208 thousand cows; Urban centres exposed to 2mm-ash fall considered not safe destinations; 16. Case Study Assignment of available trucks to affected areas Using existing and specifically designed livestock truck and trailer units Full evacuation 5520 truck trips; Full efficient evacuation 5004 truck trips; and Partial (50%) evacuation 2902 truck trips. 17. Case Study Computation of loading time 18. Case Study Identification of safe destinations Cows evacuated to urban centres located over 200 Km from the volcano 19. Case Study Network Analysis Travel Time Total TimeEvacuation Plan Traffic Assignment Method Hours Days Hours Days All or nothing 27,061 1,127.5 43,621 1,817.5 User optimum 27,823 1,159 44,383 1,849 1 (Full Evacuation) System optimum 27,760 1,157 44,320 1847 All or nothing 24,162 1,007 39,174 1,632.5 User optimum 24,698 1,029 39,710 1,654.5 2 (Full efficient evacuation) System optimum 24,641 1,027 39,653 1,652.5 All or nothing 14,013 584 22,719 947 User optimum 14,440 602 23,146 965 3 (Partial evacuation) System optimum 14,413 601 23,119 964 20. Case Study Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance Scenario Plan Estimated Loading/ Unloading Time Cost Traffic Assignment Method Estimated Travel Time Cost Total Estimated Evacuation Transport Cost All or nothing 1,304 2,102 User optimum 1,341 2,139 1 (Full Evacuation) 798 System optimum 1,338 2,136 All or nothing 1,164 1,888 User optimum 1,190 1,914 2 (Full efficient Evacuation) 723 System optimum 1,187 1,911 All or nothing 675 1,095 User optimum 696 1,115 3 (Partial evacuation) 419 System optimum 694 1,114 21. Case Study Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance Stock Trucks Required Deadline 7 days 10 days 14 days 21 days 28 days Evacuation Scenario 1 264 185 132 88 66 Evacuation Scenario 2 236 165 118 79 59 Evacuation Scenario 3 137 97 69 46 34 22. Case Study Decision making extreme difficulty in evacuating the required number of dairy cows in an acceptable period of time; likely and feasible that a small, limited evacuation of livestock of high genetic value and diversity could be undertaken need for at least a 3 month warning to implement an effective evacuation of all livestock. 23. Conclusion Each type of hazard will pose different levels of logistics challenge in terms of livestock evacuation; Livestock evacuation due to volcanic eruption: No enough time; Considerable vehicle requirements; Efficiency if sophisticated vehicle control techniques are employed; Doubtful if surrounding farms can accommodate additional cows; Full scale livestock evacuation should NOT be attempted; Mitigation options should be put in place to minimize likely losses. 24. Thank you Dr. Andr Dantas Resilient Organisations Research Programme University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand www.resorgs.org.nz

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