livestock and global change: towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector

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Presented by Mario Herrero at the ILRI ‘livestock live talk‘, Nairobi, 28 November 2012

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  • 1.Livestock and global change:Production systems for the future: Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sectorbalancing trade-offs between food production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment Mario HerreroM. Herrero and P.K. ThorntonWCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation ILRI livestock live talk, 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi st Nairobi, 28 November 2012

2. Livestock the big numbers 17 billion domestic animals globally! (SOFA 2009) 30% of the Earths ice-free surface occupied bylivestock systems (Reid et al 2008) 1/3 of global cropland used for feed production 14-18% of global greenhouse gas emissions (FAO2006) 32% of global freshwater consumption (Heinke et al,forthcoming) 3. Livestocks economic benefitsLivestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)Livestock GDP: 20-40% of agricultural GDPIncomes for producers (more constant than crops)Livestock as a risk management tool, especially for the poor 4. At least 600 million of the Worlds poor depend onlivestockThornton et al. 2002, revised 20094 5. Livestock and nutrition Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorieconsumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT2008) Africa 8% of calories Providers of food for at least 830 million food insecure people(Gerber Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption buthighest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products inthe developing World .Europe - 2000 3%SSA - 20003% 10% Meat Meat 24%4% 11% DairyDairy37%Fruit & Vegetables Fruit & Vegetables 5% Cereals Cereals3% Roots & Tubers Roots & Tubers 47%1% Dryland crops16% Dryland crops 31% Others Others5% Herrero et al 2008a 6. The livestock revolution: as people get richer they consume more meat People want to eat chicken, pork and milk!FAO: SOFA20116 7. The demand for livestock products to 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)Developing 20022844137222 20504478326585Developed200278202 102265 205094216 126295Rosegrant et al 2009 8. Climate changeWhat will happen to feed resources? Diseases? Productivity?Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Courtesy of A. Jarvis 9. Prices volatile, impacts on the livestock sector and the poor? A blip or an emerging trend?FAO: SOFA2011 10. The balancing act Pros ConsNutritionLarge usersLivestockof resources Income systems are not the Polluters Risk same everywhere (in places)managementSignificantEmployment GHGNeeds nuanced emissionsNutrientsunderstanding and Less efficient Landscapeaction than otherMaintenanceforms of foodproductionLand useunsuitable for Zoonosis agriculture 11. LIVESTOCK = problem or opportunity?Share of livestock in global GHG emissionsSteinfeld et al. (2006)Livestock in the developing world have a high mitigation potential 11Better feeds, breeds, management, incentives, policies and regulation 12. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein producedLarge ineficiencies in the developing world an opportunity?Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 13. What are recent assessments tellingus about the future of food andlivestock production? 14. Will we be able to feed 9 billion people? Maybe, depends on what we do. Different scenarios = Different resource useimplications Different social, economic and environmental costs it all depends how the world reacts 15. Business as usual will not stop hunger in the worldFAO: SOFA2011 16. Food production Herrero et al 2009, 2010 Cereals Production4% 14%AgroPastoralMixed Extensive45%Mixed IntensiveOther 35%Developed countries 2%Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% ofthe cereals of the WorldMost production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, highpotential, relatively good market access) 17. Mixed systems in the developing World producethe food of the poor (Herrero et al 2009) Maize ProductionMillet Production 3%13%1% 6% 26%19% 54% AgroPastoral28% Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other 2%Developed countries 48% Rice ProductionSorghum Production 6% 3%3% 5%20% 31% 44% 2% 66% 20% 18. Mixed systems produce significant amounts ofmilk and meat beefmilk lamb9%7% 13%28%28% 15%50%AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive17% 59%5% Mixed Intensive 19% Other 18% Developed countri 4%7%21%Developed countries dominate global milk production,significant exportsbutMixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lambin the developing World 19. Mixed intensive systems in the developing Worldare under significant pressures 2.5 billion people3.4 by 2030, predominantly inAsia 150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by2030 Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry,increasing by 30-40% to 2030 Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice Others increasing: maize (East Asia) All in the same land! Severe water constraints in some places Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others 20. Important productivity gains could be made in the more extensive mixed rainfed areas Less pressure on the landPopulation density*(people/km2)2000 2030agro-pastoral814mixed extensive79112mixed intensive 273371other28 41Yield gaps still largePublic investment required to reduce transaction costs, increaseservice provision and improve risk managementThese systems could turn in providers of agro-ecosystemsservices to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensivesystems) 21. Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009DistrictRainfal Yield (kg ha-1) CD lFPFP + ICBN + IC (5%) (mm)Tonk288 11501930 3160280Udaipur 570 25303090 6320509Mean(5districts) FP=Farmers practice; IC=Improved2550 (41%)1810 cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition 4340 (141%)Courtesy of Peter Craufurd 22. To eat or not to eat..meat? A duality Health problems in the developed world but need fornourishment in the developing world How can we differentiate this message? Most assessments show that reducing meatconsumption could have a very positive impact onthe environment .but no assessment has shown what the social andnutritional impacts would be, especially in thedeveloping world 23. Changing diets consuming less meat ordifferent types of meat could lower GHGemissions Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change 24. Range of GHG intensities for different livestock products200kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein18016014012010080604020 0Pig Poultry Beef MilkEggsSource: DeVries & DeBoer (2008) 25. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009): can we produce them? Grains1048 million tonnesmore to 2050 humanLivestockconsumption430 million MTMonogastrics mostly 458 million MTbiofuels 160 million MT 26. Projected land use changes to 2050 in several integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010)Cropland Rangeland Natural habitats +10 to 20%avg = 10% 0 to -20%Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelandsFaster expansion of monogastric production and intensification ofruminant production with grains 27. Stover deficits likely to occur in the future Herrero et al. 2009 28. Moving megajoules: fodder markets are likely toexpand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milkand meat increases India quotes from M Blummel Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold Price has doubled in 5 years, now 2/3 of grain value of sorghum Farmers paying for stover quality Herrero et al. 2009 29. Intensification of ruminant production could lead to lowerland requirements Land cover change 2000-2030Havlk et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions 29AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012 30. Is sustainable intensification a win winsolution for livelihoods, food security and theenvironment?The thrust of the ILRI - IIASA collaboration 31. Livestock productionHigher production of milk if systems intensified31Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 32. Livestock numbersWith less animals! 32 Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 33. Net cumulated land use change over 2000-2030 Intensification could lead to land sparing A little bit more croplandLower land expansion 33Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 34. Annual average GHG emissions over 2020-2030And to reduced emissions, primarily CO2 from land use changesHavlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 34 35. Price changes 2000-2030Intensification could dampen livestock productprice increasesHavlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 35 36. How can we translate the results ofglobal assessments into actionablepoints at the farm level? 37. complex !different oppotunities 38. Approach: Solution-driven R4D to achieve impact Value chains and institutionsR4D integrated to transform selected value chainsIn targeted commodities and countries.Consumers Major intervention with development partnersValue chain development team + research partners Strategic CRP 3.7 Cross-cutting Platforms Technology Generation Market Innovation Targeting & ImpactINTERVENTIONS TOGLOBAL RESEARCHSCALE OUT REGIONALLYPUBLIC GOODS 39. Integrated assessment of farming systemsessential at all levels from global to local! Herrero et al, Science 2010 40. Trade-offs and synergiesincome10.5external inputs food security 0water useGHG mixed pastoral 41. A few unresolved things. 42. Land consolidation vs growth andintensification of the smallholder sector Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreigncapital investment) Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour Do diversified smallholder farms promote morebiodiversity and better management ofecosystems services? Smallholder sector fragmented: what actorsare needed to support it? 43. What role for rangelands?Largest land use systemIncreasingly fragmentedPotentially a

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