live your life. create your destiny

Live your life. Create your destiny.

South African Higher Education student enrolment & retention

Marié FowlerTshwane University of Technology

Strategic Management Supportl

• Total state institutional undergrad enrolment: approx. 717 793 • Graduates: 109 373 (15.2%)• Only 15% of students ever graduate!*• Statistics show that only 22% of tertiary students graduate after 5 years.” Dep. Ed. Minister, Surty (27/02)

Problem: There are as many graduation and retention statistics as there are studies and/or reports of those studies

Intake in HE in South Africa (2003)

Retention problematic in South African HE

• Enrolments seriously inflated by repeat students with little or no prospect of graduation

• Financial aid problems add to dilemmas

• Only 15% of students speak English 1st language, often the language of instruction (many instructors lecture in a language not their own)

• Good news: Student Affairs getting organized professionally nationally & are committed to progress.

Strategic Management Support

“

International College Completion Rates

Total Number of Degrees/Certificates Completed per 100 Students Enrolled


HERD-SA Kellogg Grant and ProjectAssist decision makers/practitioners to begin measuring retention rates (SA def’s) & by developing a culturally appropriate methodology for reviewing & presenting meaningful data.

Develop a profile of student characteristics from data collected/identified and determine what, if any, relationships the data may have to student retention and attrition.


Direction of Kellogg Grant & Project

Focus mainly on first year students; yet will make methodology available for use at all levels of tertiary education.

Share findings with institutional and governmental agencies adhering to confidentiality guarantees.

lStrategic Management Support

HERD-SA Project LeadersRoger B. Ludeman (USA)HERD-SA Project DirectorEmail: [email protected]

Prof. Amanda Lourens,HERD-SA Project Assistant DirectorNorth-West UniversityEmail: [email protected]

Rosemary Hayes (University of Oklahoma) Consortium for Student Retention Data ExchangeEmail: [email protected]://www.ou.edu/csrde/index.html


HERDSA PROJECTInstitutions taking part

Basics and definitions

Methodology

Results


Participating institutions

• Tshwane University of Technology

• Wits University

• North West University

• Central University of Technology

• University of Johannesburg (Comprehensive)

• University of Cape Town

• Result of 2004 Merger of 3 Technikons*• Biggest residential university in SA• 52 000 students on 8 campuses covering 3 provinces (states)

• 4.5% International students (2006)• 88% Black**, 12% white (2006)

*Technikons = Universities of Technology** Black = black, coloured & asian

Tshwane University of Technology

• Founded in 1922

• Total enrolment: 24 652 (2006)

• Highly rated research capacity

• Race %: 66% Black, 34% White

• 7% international students

• Gender breakdown: 50/50

University of Witwatersrand

• Result of a merger (black & white inst)

• Approximately 38 596 students (2005)

• 91% undergrad, 7% post grad.

• 39% male, 61% female

• 34% White, 66% Black

North-West University

Central University of Technology, Free State

• Head count (2006) 10 447

• Race %: 82 Black, 18 White

• International students: 5%

University of the Free State

• Headcount: 24 521 (2006)

• Race: 60% Black, 40% White

• International

• students 7%

University of Johannesburg(A comprehensive university)

• Headcount: 42 655 (2006)

• 73% Black, 27% White

• 3.7% international

• students

University of Cape Town

• Headcount: 21 658

• Gender: about 50/50

• Race: White 45%, Black 28%

14% Coloured, 8% Indian

• International student % 19.6


Basic underlying factors& problematic

•Mergers affected almost all

•Three types of university

•Years of survey: 2000 – 2003

•First time entering students as target group

•Confidentiality

•Data extraction: HEMIS & own systems


Retention DefinitionsBaseline Enrolment: First time entering students enrolled for a 3-year diploma/degree in the year under consideration.

Second year dropout rate: Students of the baseline enrolment cohort who did not register (enrol) for the 2nd year of study nor cancelled their studies and did not graduate.

Graduation rate: The cumulative number of students from the baseline cohort who received a qualification within or before the specified year.

First time entering undergraduate or prediplomate (HEMIS definition):

The person (a) is effectively registered in the

collection period for an undergraduate or prediplomate course and (b) in the past has not been effectively registered in any higher education course at the institution or any other higher education institution.

Definitions (continued)


Methodology

* Cohort studies(Track progress over a number of years)

* Profiles of ‘stayers’ and dropoutsUse existing demographic/personal data obtained from admissions/ registration/financial aid forms. HEMIS data can also be used for this step.

(Variables include e.g: pass rate, age, gender, race, citizenships, financial aid/ bursary status, previous year activity, grade 12 type & aggregate, course load)


Variables used for phase 2(Obtained from HEMIS)

• Year of registration• Institution code (as in HEMIS)• Student number• First time entering status• FTE degree credits passed (enrolments/ year)• HEMIS qualification type• Birth date• Gender• Race• Citizenship (as reported in HEMIS)• CESM category


Variables (continued)• Financial aid• Residence• Previous year activity (as per HEMIS)• Matric type• Grade 12 aggregate• Dropout status • Course load• Home postal code• Home language• Qualification code

All Institutions – Phase I: Enrolment, Dropouts and Graduates of 2000–1 cohorts

Entering term 1st yr 2nd yr 3rd yr 4th yr 5th yr 6th yr

2000 Baseline Enrolment 23,384 23,384 23,384 23,384 23,384 23,384

# Enrolment 23,384 16,226 12,092 6,143 2,533 1,156

% Enrolment 100% 69% 52% 26% 11% 5%

# Drop Outs per year 0 6,651 3,495 2,273 1,504 444

% Drop Outs per year 0% 28% 15% 10% 6% 2%

# Cumulative Drop Outs 0 6,651 10,146 12,419 13,923 14,367

% Cumulative Drop Outs 0% 28% 43% 53% 60% 61%

# Graduates per year 28 69 2,981 3,713 1,092 426

% Graduates per year 0% 0% 13% 16% 5% 2%

# Cumulative Graduates 28 97 3,078 6,791 7,883 8,309

% Cumulative Graduates 0% 0% 13% 29% 34% 36%

2001 Baseline Enrolment 31,104 31,104 31,104 31,104 31,104

# Enrolment 31,104 20,807 15,837 7,148 3,302

% Enrolment 100% 67% 51% 23% 11%

# Drop Outs per year 0 9,677 4,322 4,088 1,107

% Drop Outs per year 0% 31% 14% 13% 4%

# Cumulative Drop Outs 0 9,677 13,999 18,087 19,194

% Cumulative Drop Outs 0% 31% 45% 58% 62%

# Graduates per year 14 109 3,942 4,427 1,442

% Graduates per year 0% 0% 13% 14% 5%

# Cumulative Graduates 14 123 4,065 8,492 9,934

% Cumulative Graduates 0% 0% 13% 27% 32%

All Institutions – Phase I: Enrolment, Dropouts and Graduates of 2002–3 cohorts

Entering term 1st yr 2nd yr 3rd yr 4th yr

2002 Baseline Enrolment 32,148 32,148 32,148 32,148

# Enrolment 32,148 22,651 15,018 8,600

% Enrolment 100% 70% 47% 27%

# Drop Outs per year 0 9,175 6,690 1,559

% Drop Outs per year 0% 29% 21% 5%

# Cumulative Drop Outs 0 9,175 15,865 17,424

% Cumulative Drop Outs 0% 29% 49% 54%

# Graduates per year 13 80 4,610 4,544

% Graduates per year 0% 0% 14% 14%

# Cumulative Graduates 13 93 4,703 9,247

% Cumulative Graduates 0% 0% 15% 29%

2003 Baseline Enrolment 35,985 35,985 35,985

# Enrolment 35,985 21,741 18,164

% Enrolment 100% 60% 50%

# Drop Outs per year 0 11,286 2,570

% Drop Outs per year 0% 31% 7%

# Cumulative Drop Outs 0 11,286 13,856

% Cumulative Drop Outs 0% 31% 39%

# Graduates per year 34 146 5,100

% Graduates per year 0% 0% 14%

# Cumulative Graduates 34 180 5,280

% Cumulative Graduates 0% 1% 15%

All Institutions – Phase I: Dropout & Graduation Rates

All Institutions 1st yr 2nd yr 3rd yr 4th yr

All Cohorts (2000 – 2003) Baseline Enrolment 122,621 86,636

# Drop Outs per year 36,789

% Drop Outs per year 30%

# Cumulative Graduates 24,530

% Cumulative Graduates 28%

Cohorts used in calculations:

• The overall 2nd year dropout rate: all cohorts

• The overall 4th year graduation rate: only the 2000 - 2002 cohorts (when the data was extracted, the 2003 cohort had not yet had 4 full years to graduate)

Descriptive Statistics: Phase II data

Qualification type 40% general 1st Bachelor degree, 35% National Diploma, 24% B Tech degree

Citizenship 95% South African citizens

Race 63% African, 30% white, 4% Indian, 4% coloured

Gender 52% female, 48% male

Tuition type 99% contact

Residence 23% live in residences

Matric type 45% Senior Certificate Endorsement/Exemption, 29% other Senior Certificate

Previous year 57% secondary school students, 27% other activity

NSFAS bursary 13% received a NSFAS bursary

Home language 46% English, 17% Afrikaans, 10% Sesotho, 10% Setswana

First time entering higher education

99% are first time entering higher education


Next plans of the project

• Bring in other institutions to participate• Utilize pilot institutions as “consultants” to

assist new institutions to adopt new data analysis profiles.

• Share aggregate profiles as needed. Remember: data belongs to the institution.

• Introduce additional ideas for further data analysis or research.

• Develop CD-ROM with structures needed for new institutions to enter their data and produce their profiles of stayers and leavers


HERD-SA Kellogg Grant and ProjectAssist decision makers/practitioners to begin measuring retention rates (SA def’s) & by developing a culturally appropriate methodology for reviewing & presenting meaningful data.

Develop a profile of student characteristics from data collected/identified and determine what, if any, relationships the data may have to student retention and attrition.


Future Needs and Ideas

• Work to create ongoing retention research for all of South African tertiary education

• Develop an online clearinghouse of SA student retention studies

• Look at interventions designed to combat attrition


Thank you

Marié Fowler

[email protected]

live your life. create your destiny

Documents

residential university

tertiary students

whiteinternational students

year students

retention statistics

retention rates sa defs

universities of technology

student affairs