Linda Joyce Rocky Mountain Research Station,

USDA FS

September 4, 2008

Climate Change and Climate Change and RangelandsRangelands

Information for AdaptationInformation for Adaptation

Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008)

9:00 am — 11:00 pm: Presentations by

David Williams and Steve Gray (Univ.

of WY), A

lan Knapp (CO State Univ.),

Jack Morgan (USDAARS)

Information from Previous Talks

• Information on the effects of climate change on western rangelands

• Developed through experimentation, testing hypotheses, analyzing data, exploring results

• The scientific process – takes data and develops information.

Information for Adaptation

• Planning for Climate Change– Assessing vulnerability

• How might this be explored?

– Adaptive Capacity • What influences this?

• Adaptation

• Reflections on Past Experiences– And the process of taking data to develop

information to make management decisions

Adaptation to Climate Change

Takes place through adjustments

to reduce vulnerability or to enhance resilience

in response to observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme weather events

To minimize the impact or harm and

To capitalize on opportunities.

IPCC WGII 2007

Confederation Bridge, CanadaConstructed 1 metre higher to account for climate change

Land acquisition program

Increased use of artificial snow by Alpine ski industry

Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

• Magnitude of Impact

• Timing

• Persistence or Reversibility

• Likelihood of Impacts

• Capacity for Adaptation

• Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic

• Importance: ecological, social, economic

IPCC WGII 2007

Data to Identify Vulnerabilities

Timing – sudden versus gradual

ABRUPT CHANGE

Dieback of pinon in pinon-juniper woodlands – insects and drought in the SouthwestLeft – 2002, Right - 2004

Data to Identify Vulnerabilities

Inouye et al 2000

Nat

ion

al G

eog

rap

hic

GRADUAL CHANGEAverage snowmelt date has not shifted. Marmots emerging 3 weeks earlier from hibernation than a few decades ago. Still snow covered fields on their emergence date.Breashers et al 2007

IPCC WGII 2007

Persistence and reversibility of impacts

Ross Ice Shelf – Iceberg B15 Calving Credit: Jacques Descloitres, Modis Land Science Team

Data to Identify Vulnerabilities

When does ‘drought’ become ‘climate’?

Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

• Magnitude of Impact

• Timing

• Persistence or Reversibility

• Likelihood of Impacts

• Capacity for Adaptation

• Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic

• Importance: ecological, social, economic

IPCC WGII 2007

Adaptation

• Reactive

• Anticipatory

ADAPTATION: REACTIVE

• Capacity is influenced by:– Topography and micro-refugia– Soil traits– Existing biodiversity – Pre-existing stresses, e.g. invasive species,

air pollution, fragmentation of the landscape – Status of ecosystem, e.g., early to late

succession– And on the characteristics of the social

system interacting with, or dependent on, the ecosystem

Capacity for Adaptation: Ecosystems

ADAPTATION: REACTIVE, ANTICIPATORY

• Adaptive Capacity in human systems is influenced by local factors: – Available and appropriate skills – Available financial resources – Local support: family, stakeholder, etc.

• General factors: Socioeconomic and political– Federal laws – Federal policies and regulations– Globalization of markets– Commodity market conditions

Capacity for Adaptation: Humans

BUILDING THE TOOLBOXBUILDING THE TOOLBOX

No single solution fits all

Range of options for short & long term

Mix and match tools

Capitalize on experience Be flexible, experimental (learn-as-you-

go), innovative, risk-taking, course-

correcting

Synthesis and Assessment Report 4.4 ‘Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-sensitive Resources and Ecosystems’ http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc

Management

‘Win-Win’ Strategy – Address Current Stressors

• Altered Disturbances– Drought, fire, insects

• Habitat Fragmentation and Loss

• Invasive Plants, Animals, and Pathogens

• Air and Water Pollution

• Legacy of Past Management

Current Stressors

• Current Management to address these stressors

• Experience to draw upon

Information for Adaptation

• Information on the effects of climate on western rangelands: scientific process

• Operators, Resource Managers, Decision-makers – also have a process of taking data and developing information

• Information used in decision making for natural resource management

Reflection of Experiences as Resource Managers

• Have you ever experienced a weather-related event where you had to change your management actions and maybe goals?

• What type of information was needed?

• What would you do differently?

drought

• Setting – National Forest, City watershed on the National Forest,

• Focus – Weather suggesting drought

• In place – Agreement on how forest and water management would be affected by the drought

Realization – ‘Drought’ was not defined

Reflection of Past Experiences

One Point in TimeUnusual Event

Perhaps no long-term changein resource management actions

Valuable Experience

Use of Climate or Weather Data to make a Change in your

Operation, Natural Resource Management

• What climate data did you use – precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index?

• What management actions were adjusted?

• Did you need additional information?

• Would you do something different now?

Temporal constraints associated with using environmental data or information to make decision in

management

• In making decisions about grazing management or wildlife management, how far ahead of a change in operation or management do you need the data?

• How does the uncertainty or variability of that information influence your risk management?

Have you incorporated information on anticipated changes in rangeland ecosystems associated with future

climate change?

• What types of information on anticipated changes?

• What was your source?

• What is your confidence?

Describe a time when there were differences of opinion between public land managers and private ranchers concerning the removal of livestock from public lands during a drought?

• What types of information would have been helpful for reaching a solution that would have been acceptable to all?

• How will a more uncertain and variable climate challenge the management of public lands?

What science needs to be brought to the table?

• What are the key issues from a management perspective – information needs?

• What are the key issues from a research perspective – new research challenges?

• Where do we (research, management) go next?

Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008)