levy haiti societal issues - iris.edu levy.pdf · societal issues and the 12 january haiti...
TRANSCRIPT
Societal Issues and the
12 January Haiti Earthquake:
A Multi-Hazard PerspectiveA Multi-Hazard PerspectiveMarc Levy
CIESIN, Earth Institute
Columbia University
22 March 2010
The challenge
• “New” risk in a region already very risky
• Social drivers heavily influence the risks (none are purely “natural”)
• Some of the risks are directly social (e.g. political instability)instability)
• The magnitude of the challenge is so unprecedented that identifying fruitful directions is very difficult
• State of the art responses assumes social preconditions that are not present in Haiti
Region is already risky
0
1
2
3
19
00
19
02
19
04
19
06
19
08
19
10
19
12
19
14
19
16
19
18
19
20
19
22
19
24
19
26
19
28
19
30
19
32
19
34
19
36
19
38
19
40
19
42
19
44
19
46
19
48
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Significant Haitian Natural Disasters by Year
EM-DAT, CRED
• Severe storms and floods are major risks
• Reporting bias over time makes it hard to know exactly what trends are
• But fairly certain that disasters are more frequent
19
00
19
02
19
04
19
06
19
08
19
10
19
12
19
14
19
16
19
18
19
20
19
22
19
24
19
26
19
28
19
30
19
32
19
34
19
36
19
38
19
40
19
42
19
44
19
46
19
48
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Drivers of increasing disaster
frequency
• Population growth
• Deforestation
• Political instability and weakness
Deforestation and unsustainable
land use.
Virtually unprecedented erosion
impacts
Riverbed
expanded
143% in one
event.
3. Impacts on LivelihoodsSkdjghkjsdgkj
• Factiona
lism
• Transitio
nal
regimes
•Factionalism (red)
•Transitional regimes
(green)
•History of coups
•Dominance of unstable
middle-ground
Source: POLITY data set on
political institutions
High concentration of urban
population
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2009 Urban Population
Port au Prince
Agglomeration
Would it be
better to hedge
against future
risks and have a
2nd major urban
center that would
be unlikely to
suffer at same
time as Port au
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Port-au-Prince Carrefour Delmas Pétionville Cité Soleil Gonaïves average all others
Agglomerationtime as Port au
Prince? If so,
where, and how
to promote?
Lessons Learned from Other CasesParticipatory Processes absolutely crucial
– Haitian participation (gov, academic, …)
– Bottom-up participation from the beginning
Communication with all parties involved, especially with the general public, should convey
– multiple hazards (EQ, hurricanes, flooding, …)
– multiple goals (reconstruction, sustainable dev, well-being, capacity building…)
– integration of short-term, mid-term, and long-term goals – integration of short-term, mid-term, and long-term goals
– continued EQ risk and other risks in understandable terms (taking into account subjective risk perception)
– what the government and other agencies are doing
– danger of “single action bias”
Examples of strategies that encourage participation in risk reduction measures
• Incentives (economic and social rewards)
• Seals of approvals- Increases property value
• Establish and adhere to building codes– Require inspections
What do we need to know?• What are the available sources of influence over the social behaviors that
will determine future seismic risk? Which are likely to be most effective?
– Trade
– Aid
– Investment
– Capacity building
– Popular culture
– Migration and remittances
• How can principles of adaptive management be implemented in a weak, • How can principles of adaptive management be implemented in a weak, unstable state?
– Enable experimentation at appropriate scale
– Monitor and reward good performance
– Identify and remove critical bottlenecks
• What mode of interaction between Haitian government and international community is most likely to help achieve long-term sustainability goals?
– Peacekeeping?
– Aid?