let me see: visualizing actuarial information aleksey popelyukhin, ph.d. vice president, information...
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Let Me See: Visualizing Actuarial Information
Aleksey Popelyukhin, Ph.D.Vice President, Information Systems & Technology
COMMERCIAL RISK
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Actuarial Process
Data Collection, Cleanup and Transformation Application of Agorithms and Methods Representation of Results
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Actuarial Process
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AlgorithmsResults
Data
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Ideal Actuarial System
An ideal actuarial processing solution is a a) transparent to users and b) highly efficient storage/retrieval system for c) structured actuarial data (objects) with d) an extremely flexible, e) computationally complete, f) open calculation engine and g) integrated, h) automated and i) interactivereport generator
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Actuarially-Centric Systems
Insurance companies build their computer systems around their strengths: Claims Accounting Underwriting
Actuarial Functionality is always an afterthought 2a
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Human perception
Relies heavily on Short-Term Memory.Problems with STM: Can hold only 5-7 similar similar items at
once It’s a “buffer”: new info erases old
information Even without distractions can hold info only
for 30 seconds 2b
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Data-Driven Technologies
2c
Adaptive Reporting Visualization Alarm Systems
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Adaptive Reporting
Adaptive Reporting Filtering Sorting Outlining Conditional Formatting OLAP-enabled tools
2d
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Adaptive Reporting: Filtering
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Auto-Filter in Excel Plain-Vanilla Filtering Checking Distinct Values Adaptive Filtering (through VBA)
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Adaptive Reporting: Outlining
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Outlining in Excel Hierarchical view Different level of details Subtotals
Master-Detail relationship in Access
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Adaptive Reporting: Sorting
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Does not reduce amount of information displayed
Brings most important info on top or up front
Requires definition of importance
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Adaptive Reporting: Dynamic Formatting
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Conditional Formatting in Excel allows users to define
font color border background pattern
of a cell as a function of the values in other cells
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Adaptive Reporting: OLAP(Online Analitycal Processing)
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Pivot Tables and OLAP cubes in Excel Combine
Filtering Outlining Sorting
Add on-the-fly processing Calculated Field Calculated Item
Data Source is not limited by 65,536 rows
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Visualization: Charts
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There is a chart for every occasion: line chart for displaying increases bar for shares pedestal for ranks Gantt for schedules
But what about actuarial triangles?
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Visualization: Charts
8a1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
24 - 36
60 - 72
96 - 1081.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1.250
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Visualization: Maps
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Maps in Microsoft MapPoint: Colors Shapes Glyphs Isosurfaces
Links to Office applications VBA
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Visualization: Animation
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If a picture is worth a thousand words, thenan animation is worth a thousand pictures “selective attention”: people react on any
movement (change in color, shape or position) display of different stages in the motion displacement plots time animations streamlines (traces)
For actuaries: iterations of simulation!
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Visualization: Visual Tools
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Making actuarial selections interactively, directly on the chart
Instant visual feedback Changing parameters during animation:
invaluable for DFA
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Alarm Systems: Data Quality
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Alarm System triggers an action whenever problem is found: creates record in the log sends e-mail stops processing runs additional tests
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Alarm Systems: Algorithms Applicability
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Actuarial assumptions testing Mack Murphy Zehnwirth
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Alarm Systems: Digital Dashboard
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Portal to the most important info Corporate Professional Personal
Dashboard’s space limitations re-emphasize the necessity of space-conscious reporting techniques!
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Conclusion
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For effective use of computerized reporting tools available to actuaries, it is imperative to define measurable indicators of actuarial significance…
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Conclusion
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“The gods help them that help themselves.”
Aesop
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Me.About
Actuarially related activities:• Prize for the best article in the “Data Management discussion paper”
call (1997).• Creation and distribution of actuarial software
• Triangle Maker® (1994), Triangle Maker® Pro (1997), Actuarial Toolchest™ (1998) , Enabler™ (1999)
• Design, development and coding of the 2nd and 3rd (current) generation of Affinity (1996)
• Promotion of notions like Ideal Actuarial System and Data Quality Shield, and paradigms like object-oriented actuarial software and data-driven visualization.Presently developing an integrated pricing/reserving/DFA computer system for reinsurance and also an action/adventure computer game tentatively called “Actuarial Judgement”. An active member of several scientific societies and an author of almost 20 scientific publications. end