LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

THE CARIBBEANPART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric-mantle collision-zone inter-actions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINDISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRAD-ATION

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

ACTIVE VOLCANOES

THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

The Caribbean: long referred to as the West

Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13

are independent island countries

ISLANDS POSSESSING MINOR VOLCANIC FEATURES

• Aruuba, Barbados, Bahamas, Bonaire, Cayman Islands, Saint Croix, and Antigua

ISLANDS POSSESSING RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES

• Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, ,Dominica, Montserrat, Saba, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint John, Tortola, Grenada, Saint Vincent, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Trinidad and Tobago

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

THE CARIBBEAN’S VOLCANOES

• The present dozen active volcanoes on or near the Caribbean are restricted to the Lesser Antilles

THE BEST KNOWN HISTORIC ERUPTIONS

• The best known are:oufriere on Guadeloupe, Mount Pelee on Martinique (well-known for its disastrous 1902 eruption and nuee ardente destroying St. Pierre and killing some 28,000 people), Kick'Em Jenny, a submarine volcano north of Grenada, and a series of eruptions beginning in 1995 on Montserrat.

HAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISK

THE VOLCANO HAZARDS

ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME • ASH AND TEPHRA• LATERAL BLAST• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS• LAHARS• EARTHQUAKES (related to

movement of lava)• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

INTERACT WITH A CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., a volcanic eruption,...) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

EXAMPLES OF PAST VOLCANO DISASTERS

MONTSERAT

SOUFRIERE HILLS: 1995 and following

SOUFRIERE HILLS ERUPTION

SOUFRIERE HILLS ERUPTION

SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO, MONTSERAT: 1995 TO PRESENT

• The capital, Plymouth, was buried by ash and eventually evacuated.

• 2,000-3,000 still remain on the island.

IMPACTS

• Numerous evacuations followed by temporary resumptions made normal life impossible.

• Plymouth, which was eventually destroyed, was unable to function effectively as the capital.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANO DISASTER IS

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN NATION’S NATION’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GEOEYE) THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTIFICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVAC-UATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMING VOLCANO

DISASTER RESILIENT

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE• PROTECTION

• CONTROL

• AVIATION SAFETY

• TECHNIQUE• DESIGN ROOFS

FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR

LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS

• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE• URBAN PLANNING

• EVACUATION

• TECHNIQUE• MAPS: LAVA

AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS; ASH DISTRIBUTION

• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE• COMPUTER

MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD

• TECHNIQUE• MONITORING TO

CONSTRUCT AN ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO; HAZARD ZONES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE• TEMPORARY

SHELTERS

• TECHNIQUE• SAFE HAVENS FOR

EVACUEES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WIND DIRECTION)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO

• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT

INSITU AND SATELLITE MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES

.

ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT, A VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INEVITABLE

• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENT.