learning: the future is now
TRANSCRIPT
Learning:The Future is Now
Smart Learning Conference , Dubai, 7 March 2017
Gard Titlestad, Secretary GeneralInternational Council for Open and Distance Education
To be the global facilitator for inclusive, flexible, quality learning and teaching in the digital age.
Open, Transparent,Accountable and focus Good Governance
ICDE International ConferenceLifelong Learning,
Lillehammer February 11. – 13. 2019
1.Emerging Pedagogies and Designs for Online Learning2.Expanding Access, Openness and Flexibility3.Changing Models of Assessment4.New Delivery Tools and Resources for Learning5.Re-designed Institutional Business Models
Message:
• Learners first. Learners are the future. They are here. Now. For a quality learning experience. Quality as priority 1.
• Lead digital transformation. Lead transformation of education for SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and quality education for all and promote lifelong learning.
• Go Open, Innovative and Collaborative.
The Learners
Play
Retire
Learn
JobPlay Learn Job
The new pradigm of lifelong learning
From the information age to the connected age
From the knowledge driven to the knowledge intensive economy
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
Add now:Artificial intelligence, cognitive technologies and roboticsNeurotechnologiesUbiquitous presence of linked sensorsNew computing technologiesVirtual and augmented realities
Private investment in ed-tech reached $4.5 billion in 2015 Image: WEF
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/5-charts-that-explain-the-future-of-education/
The eLearning market
• 2015: $166.5 billion• 2017 est.: $255 billion
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/is-online-learning-the-future-of-education/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BG3KOexi8
Example: Pepper, Watson
«We think cognitive technologies will fuel the digital transformation as the damp machine fuelled the industrial revolution».
– IBM Norway.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=cognitive+technologies+and+education&&view=detail&mid=4FDFBA52BEB89D240AE14FDFBA52BEB89D240AE1&FORM=VRDGAR
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/this-is-what-artificial-intelligence-will-look-like-in-2030
While investments in AI is rapidly increasing
Top-12 Emerging technologies in need of better governance:1. Artificial intelligence and robotics2. Biotechnologies3. Energy capture, storage and transmission4. Blockchain and distributed ledger5. Geoengineering6. Neurotechnologies7. Ubiquitous presence of linked sensors8. New computing technologies9. Advanced materials and nanomaterials10. Virtual and augmented realities11. Space technologies12. 3D printing
X
XXX
X
X = Direct relevant for education
Margareta Drzeniek Hanouz, • Head of Global
Competitiveness and Risks• Member of the Executive
Committee at the World Economic Forum.
Who opened the box?
By F.S. Church. - http://prb.livejournal.com/35233.htmlhttp://www.mitchellteachers.org/WorldHistory/AncientGreece/DiscoveringReferencestoGreekMythology.htm, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17344549
By John William Waterhouse - http://www.jwwaterhouse.com/view.cfm?recordid=69, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4843019
Curiosity
Three observations 1/3
• Digitalization is penetrating and challenging all regions, all countries, all sectors and all production and services, including education.
• It will creep into every corner of the world and cause people raising the question: “Are you relevant, are you relevant for me.”
• This you cannot stop or turn off. • However, remember what we learned from the first break trough
of the internet some 15 years ago: a too narrow technology focus does not help very much – while mastering and orchestrating technologies – focus has to be on people, on the students – on the citizens, helps a lot.
• AI, CT and robotics post gigantic opportunities and challenges.
• However, no reason to praise the voices that claim that the development should be free and company only led.
• No, coul be the other way around. Development should be based on humanism, for the best of humanity and led by humans and organizations, companies included, with high integrity and sound ethical values.
Three observations 2/3
• Knowledge sharing, mutual learning and collaboration for the sake of the good, should be the main methodology inspiring and guiding us through this era of digitalization.
Three observations 3/3
Informal/non-formal
RAPID AND DIVERSE EXPANSION OF HIGHER EDUCATION ENROLMENT
100 mill200 mill
2000 2015 2030
435 mill
Only possible facilitated by technology and flexible learning
Global risks
Action for humanity
• On 25 September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly formally adopted the universal, integrated and transformative 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, along with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 associated targets.
Main principles
• Education is a fundamental human right and an enabling right.
• Education is a public good, of which the state is the duty bearer.
• Gender equality is inextricably linked to the right to education for all.
Target 3, point 43.:A well-established, properly-regulated tertiary education system supported by technology, Open Educational Resources (OERs) and distance education modalities can increase access, equity, quality and relevance, and narrow the gap between what is taught at tertiary education institutions and what economies and societies demand. The provision of tertiary education should be progressively free, in line with existing international agreements.
Where are we now?One year after………..
http://gem-report-2016.unesco.org/en/home/
World is not set to achieve key global education commitments until 2084.
PROJECTIONS FOR EDUCATION 2030
2030 2042 2059 2084Universal primary
completion
Universal Upper
secondary completion
Universal Lower
secondary completion
YEAR
Education 2030deadline
Education 2030deadline
2042 2059 2084YEAR Global average
Universal primary
completion
UniversalUpper
secondary completion
Universal Lower
secondary completion
2015
SDGs adopted
20872051 2062
Southern Asia
After 21002080 2089
Sub-Saharan Africa
“Education needs to fundamentally change if we are to reach our global
development goals”Press release 6 September 2016
UNESCO:
DigitalizationHigher Education
Trends
Mega trends:• Globalisation• Technology – e.g. artificial
intelligence (AI), genetic engineering, virtual reality, cognitive technologies, robotics
• Demographics – e.g. refugees, migration, emigration, aging……
Trends – as observed by ICDE - 1/2
1. Open and distance learning, is now going mainstream: online, blended, open, flexible and technology enhanced learning.
2. Digital transformation is challenging the relevance of educational institutions all over the world.
3. New developments as OER and MOOCs are fueling innovation in education.
4. New methodologies; learning analytics, Big Data, and new online education systems, enable a shift to adapted, personalized learning and assessment.
5. Education is on the brink of a revolution caused by convergence of research. Education, Cognitive Psychology and Neuroscience: powerful advances in optimizing online learning experiences.
• 6. Lack of resources or lack of understanding of the concept of online, open and flexible education is observed in some parts of the world as a major threat to scalable quality higher education both on a national and institutional level, and therefore also as a threat towards SDG 4.
• 7. Skills and the relation education - employment, is a hot topic in all regions. Life long Learning is becoming more important than ever.
• 8. Quality, quality assurance, enhancement and accreditation become a top priority issues.
Trends – as observed by ICDE - 2/2
The BIG Picture• Online, Open and Flexible Education is steadily increasing all
over the world
IndiaSweden
Russia
South America
The US
AfricaAustralia
China
1 *
And it is NOT the MOOCsbut online, open, flexible and technology enhanced learning
moocs as a part of it
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/01/08/survey-finds-online-enrollments-slow-continue-grow
NB! MOOCs: (mostly) nonformal and informal HE
“Judged by completion rates, MOOCs do not spread benefits equitably across global regions. Rather, they reflect prevailing educational disparities between nations”
Giving birth to a new learning landscape
Creative Commons
Learning analytics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUOrlp6AZ8E
“enormous potential to improve the student experience at university” JISC, UK• As a tool for quality assurance and quality improvement• As a tool for boosting retention rates• As a tool for assessing and acting upon differential outcomes
among the student population• As an enabler for the development and introduction of
adaptive learning
https://vimeo.com/105802864
4 ** New methodologies; learning analytics, Big Data, and new online education systems, enable a shift to adapted, personalized learning and assessment.
Learning analyticsTechnical infrastructure
https://www.surf.nl/en/knowledge-base/2016/whitepaper-how-data-can-improve-the-quality-of-higher-education.html
Mars 2016
Student interest in IPAS features
”Integrated Planning and Advising Services (IPAS) ”
www.educause.edu/ecar
4 **
http://www.policyconnect.org.uk/hec/research/report-bricks-clicks-potential-data-and-analytics-higher-education
The Open University, UK, policy
The UK Higher Education Commission 2016
4 **
Do we need a global code of
practice for learning
analytics?
4 **
UNESCO INITIATIVE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION
Regional conferences on
qualityassurance
International conference on
quality assurance
Global convention on recognition of qualifications
2017 2018 2019 2020
Global Congress on higher education
8 ****
• Global Quality Network
• Models for technology enhanced education
• Global Doctoral Consortium
AnalysisReportsInsight briefsActions, events and communities
ICDE Quality initiative
ICDE quality initiative
ICDE Global Quality Network
Observe and analyseContribute to UNESCO events and reports
Suggest policies and actionsContribute to state of the art quality online, open, flexible and technology
enhanced learning
Region Focal Point on QualityArab region Dr. Souma Alhaj Ali
HBMSU (Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University)United Arab Emirates
8 ****
The change
• From focus on– Quality of students
admitted– Qualification of faculty– Design and management
of programmes– Rigour of marking– Course outputs as
intended outcome?
• To focus on– Student engagement and
satisfaction– Data analytics– Reflective assesments by
students– Student-instructor-
student interaction– Assessments for learning– Faculty satisfaction and
engagement
8 ****
A great infrastructure is hepful in facilitating the educational change
Where are Arab states?
Population % Population
( 2016 Est. ) (Penetration)
Yemen 27,392,779 24.7 %
Syria 18,563,595 29.6 %
Iraq 37,547,686 37.3 %
Palestine (West Bk.) 2,839,777 63.2 %
Saudi Arabia 32,157,974 64.7 %
Iran 82,801,633 68.5 %
Oman 4,654,471 71.1 %
Israel 8,174,527 72.7 %
Jordan 7,747,800 73.6 %
Lebanon 5,988,153 75.9 %
Kuwait 4,007,145 79.9 %
United Arab Emirates 9,266,971 91.9 %
Bahrain 1,378,904 92.7 %
Qatar 2,258,283 97.4 %
Gaza Strip 1,921,202 n/a
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East Internet Users and
Population Statistics 2016
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats5.htm
https://www.theatlas.com/
https://www.theatlas.com/
Oman
Quatar
UAE
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Bahrain
Global average
Map of the Gulf Cooperation Council's
member. Wikipedia
Where the Digital Economy Is Moving the FastestBhaskar Chakravorti Christopher Tunnard Ravi Shankar Chaturvedi FEBRUARY 19, 2015
The Future is Now
ec.europa.eu/research/pdf/publications/knowledge_future_2050.pdf
December 2015
Open• Principle 1: An open
knowledge system in Europe
Inno• Principle 2: Flexibility and
experimentation in innovation
Coop• Principle 3: European-level
cooperation
ec.europa.eu/research/pdf/publications/knowledge_future_2050.pdf
ICDE ad hoc observations,
trends and analysis
+ +
Simplified version
An Education 2030 foresight
2015 2030+2030
Globalisation
Demography
Technology
Megatrends
SDG4 Education 2030Incheon-declarationQingdao-declarationFramework for Action
Option A: The world´s Success
Option B: The world misses out
• Option A: The world´s Success
• Competitive regions –clusters of HEI flourishing.• Education is ‘in’. New efficiencies: course modules
shared within university clusters, online and artificial intelligence-based teaching, specialisation within institutions public and private.
• Educational games, at which regional designers excel, are a vast market segment.
• In business, open innovation is now the dominant mode. The Globe´s mega-cities, are a focus for innovation; ‘Paris original’ – or Qingdao or Nairobi are global brands.
• Automation and data-intensive science have changed the nature of doing research. We have moved from open science to radical open access: all kinds of new actors are rushing into the research game, especially in astronomy, ecology, climate and other fields that attract strong public interest. Regions are competing in taking the lead in producing the world’s ideas, creativity is flourishing.
• So are also industries anchored in regions, often building on healthy SMEs. The region´s universities are strong, its citizens fulfilled – and its core values, such as equality, openness, social inclusion and environmental responsibility, are upheld.
• Option B: The world misses out
• The Globe is a victim of megatrends beyond its control. Automation and globalisation have triggered mass unemployment, social exclusion, discontent.
• What’s left for the humans to do? Inequality is higher than ever; new creative jobs are constantly evolving from new technologies, but they are only for the skilled few.
• Politically, regions have fragmented into a coalition of rich and poor sub-regions with minimal coordination. Multinational companies, and wealthy individuals, use global markets and digital technologies to avoid tax.
• A few great universities dominate; many weaker, regional universities have closed or merged. Automation has also swept across the educational system, with online certifications normal and augmented cognition technologies starting to appear – and finding favour with big companies wanting fast, cheap graduates.
• Top cited scientists are in hot demand – often hired by multinationals in a kind of perpetual ‘consultancy without borders. Mobility is diminished. Innovation is without borders; supply chains form and dissemble rapidly – making long-term regional development more difficult than ever.
• Regions look inward, fear the future, and see their values gradually discredited.
• Flourishing regions – a much more balanced world
• Education core value from cradle to grave
• Open innovation – Smart cities leading developments
• Automation for human expansion and a sustainable world
• Regional creative knowledge clusters
• Equality, openness, social inclusion and environmental responsibility
• The Globe victim for megatrends beyond human control. Automation triggered massive discontent.
• Inequality, creative jobs for the few
• Coalitions of rich and poor. Low regional coordination
• A few universities dominate. Online has become the way to satisfy big companies need for cheap graduates
• Innovation without borders – regional growth disintegrate
• Regions fear the future
Option A: The world´s Success
2015 2030+2030
Globalisation
Demography
Technology
Education2030
Megatrends
Option B: The world misses out
SDG4 Education 2030Incheon-declarationQingdao-declarationFramework for Action
Openess
Collaboration
Flexibility and innovation
Megapolicies
Good Teachers and Rich Content
Open up for great learning experience
• Woman in virtual glasses
73
Now what?
Thanks to Martin Bean, RMIT, Australia
74
Magic Leap
Thanks to Martin Bean, RMIT, Australia
Message:
• Learners first. Learners are the future. They are here. Now. For a quality learning experience. Quality as priority 1.
• Lead digital transformation. Lead transformation of education for SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and quality education for all and promote lifelong learning.
• Go Open, Innovative and Collaborative.
”TOWARDS INCLUSIVE AND EQUITABLE QUALITY EDUCATION AND LIFELONG LEARNING FOR ALL”
Sustainable Development Goal 4: Education 2030
THANK [email protected]
www.icde.org