learning: the future is now

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Learnin g: The Future is Now Smart Learning Conference , Dubai, 7 Gard Titlestad, Secretary General International Council for Open and Distance Education

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Page 1: Learning: the future is now

Learning:The Future is Now

Smart Learning Conference , Dubai, 7 March 2017

Gard Titlestad, Secretary GeneralInternational Council for Open and Distance Education

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To be the global facilitator for inclusive, flexible, quality learning and teaching in the digital age.

Open, Transparent,Accountable and focus Good Governance

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ICDE International ConferenceLifelong Learning,

Lillehammer February 11. – 13. 2019

1.Emerging Pedagogies and Designs for Online Learning2.Expanding Access, Openness and Flexibility3.Changing Models of Assessment4.New Delivery Tools and Resources for Learning5.Re-designed Institutional Business Models

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Message:

• Learners first. Learners are the future. They are here. Now. For a quality learning experience. Quality as priority 1.

• Lead digital transformation. Lead transformation of education for SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and quality education for all and promote lifelong learning.

• Go Open, Innovative and Collaborative.

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The Learners

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Play

Retire

Learn

JobPlay Learn Job

The new pradigm of lifelong learning

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From the information age to the connected age

From the knowledge driven to the knowledge intensive economy

The Fourth Industrial Revolution

Add now:Artificial intelligence, cognitive technologies and roboticsNeurotechnologiesUbiquitous presence of linked sensorsNew computing technologiesVirtual and augmented realities

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Private investment in ed-tech reached $4.5 billion in 2015 Image: WEF

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/5-charts-that-explain-the-future-of-education/

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The eLearning market

• 2015: $166.5 billion• 2017 est.: $255 billion

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/is-online-learning-the-future-of-education/

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BG3KOexi8

Example: Pepper, Watson

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https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/this-is-what-artificial-intelligence-will-look-like-in-2030

While investments in AI is rapidly increasing

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Top-12 Emerging technologies in need of better governance:1. Artificial intelligence and robotics2. Biotechnologies3. Energy capture, storage and transmission4. Blockchain and distributed ledger5. Geoengineering6. Neurotechnologies7. Ubiquitous presence of linked sensors8. New computing technologies9. Advanced materials and nanomaterials10. Virtual and augmented realities11. Space technologies12. 3D printing

X

XXX

X

X = Direct relevant for education

Margareta Drzeniek Hanouz, • Head of Global

Competitiveness and Risks• Member of the Executive

Committee at the World Economic Forum.

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Who opened the box?

By F.S. Church. - http://prb.livejournal.com/35233.htmlhttp://www.mitchellteachers.org/WorldHistory/AncientGreece/DiscoveringReferencestoGreekMythology.htm, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17344549

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By John William Waterhouse - http://www.jwwaterhouse.com/view.cfm?recordid=69, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4843019

Curiosity

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Three observations 1/3

• Digitalization is penetrating and challenging all regions, all countries, all sectors and all production and services, including education.

• It will creep into every corner of the world and cause people raising the question: “Are you relevant, are you relevant for me.”

• This you cannot stop or turn off. • However, remember what we learned from the first break trough

of the internet some 15 years ago: a too narrow technology focus does not help very much – while mastering and orchestrating technologies – focus has to be on people, on the students – on the citizens, helps a lot.

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• AI, CT and robotics post gigantic opportunities and challenges.

• However, no reason to praise the voices that claim that the development should be free and company only led.

• No, coul be the other way around. Development should be based on humanism, for the best of humanity and led by humans and organizations, companies included, with high integrity and sound ethical values.

Three observations 2/3

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• Knowledge sharing, mutual learning and collaboration for the sake of the good, should be the main methodology inspiring and guiding us through this era of digitalization.

Three observations 3/3

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Informal/non-formal

RAPID AND DIVERSE EXPANSION OF HIGHER EDUCATION ENROLMENT

100 mill200 mill

2000 2015 2030

435 mill

Only possible facilitated by technology and flexible learning

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Global risks

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Action for humanity

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• On 25 September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly formally adopted the universal, integrated and transformative 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, along with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 associated targets.

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Main principles

• Education is a fundamental human right and an enabling right.

• Education is a public good, of which the state is the duty bearer.

• Gender equality is inextricably linked to the right to education for all.

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Target 3, point 43.:A well-established, properly-regulated tertiary education system supported by technology, Open Educational Resources (OERs) and distance education modalities can increase access, equity, quality and relevance, and narrow the gap between what is taught at tertiary education institutions and what economies and societies demand. The provision of tertiary education should be progressively free, in line with existing international agreements.

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Where are we now?One year after………..

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http://gem-report-2016.unesco.org/en/home/

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World is not set to achieve key global education commitments until 2084.

PROJECTIONS FOR EDUCATION 2030

2030 2042 2059 2084Universal primary

completion

Universal Upper

secondary completion

Universal Lower

secondary completion

YEAR

Education 2030deadline

Education 2030deadline

2042 2059 2084YEAR Global average

Universal primary

completion

UniversalUpper

secondary completion

Universal Lower

secondary completion

2015

SDGs adopted

20872051 2062

Southern Asia

After 21002080 2089

Sub-Saharan Africa

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“Education needs to fundamentally change if we are to reach our global

development goals”Press release 6 September 2016

UNESCO:

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DigitalizationHigher Education

Trends

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Mega trends:• Globalisation• Technology – e.g. artificial

intelligence (AI), genetic engineering, virtual reality, cognitive technologies, robotics

• Demographics – e.g. refugees, migration, emigration, aging……

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Trends – as observed by ICDE - 1/2

1. Open and distance learning, is now going mainstream: online, blended, open, flexible and technology enhanced learning.

2. Digital transformation is challenging the relevance of educational institutions all over the world.

3. New developments as OER and MOOCs are fueling innovation in education.

4. New methodologies; learning analytics, Big Data, and new online education systems, enable a shift to adapted, personalized learning and assessment.

5. Education is on the brink of a revolution caused by convergence of research. Education, Cognitive Psychology and Neuroscience: powerful advances in optimizing online learning experiences.

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• 6. Lack of resources or lack of understanding of the concept of online, open and flexible education is observed in some parts of the world as a major threat to scalable quality higher education both on a national and institutional level, and therefore also as a threat towards SDG 4.

• 7. Skills and the relation education - employment, is a hot topic in all regions. Life long Learning is becoming more important than ever.

• 8. Quality, quality assurance, enhancement and accreditation become a top priority issues.

Trends – as observed by ICDE - 2/2

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The BIG Picture• Online, Open and Flexible Education is steadily increasing all

over the world

IndiaSweden

Russia

South America

The US

AfricaAustralia

China

1 *

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And it is NOT the MOOCsbut online, open, flexible and technology enhanced learning

moocs as a part of it

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https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/01/08/survey-finds-online-enrollments-slow-continue-grow

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NB! MOOCs: (mostly) nonformal and informal HE

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“Judged by completion rates, MOOCs do not spread benefits equitably across global regions. Rather, they reflect prevailing educational disparities between nations”

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Giving birth to a new learning landscape

Creative Commons

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Learning analytics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUOrlp6AZ8E

“enormous potential to improve the student experience at university” JISC, UK• As a tool for quality assurance and quality improvement• As a tool for boosting retention rates• As a tool for assessing and acting upon differential outcomes

among the student population• As an enabler for the development and introduction of

adaptive learning

https://vimeo.com/105802864

4 ** New methodologies; learning analytics, Big Data, and new online education systems, enable a shift to adapted, personalized learning and assessment.

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Learning analyticsTechnical infrastructure

https://www.surf.nl/en/knowledge-base/2016/whitepaper-how-data-can-improve-the-quality-of-higher-education.html

Mars 2016

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Student interest in IPAS features

”Integrated Planning and Advising Services (IPAS) ”

www.educause.edu/ecar

4 **

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http://www.policyconnect.org.uk/hec/research/report-bricks-clicks-potential-data-and-analytics-higher-education

The Open University, UK, policy

The UK Higher Education Commission 2016

4 **

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Do we need a global code of

practice for learning

analytics?

4 **

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UNESCO INITIATIVE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION

Regional conferences on

qualityassurance

International conference on

quality assurance

Global convention on recognition of qualifications

2017 2018 2019 2020

Global Congress on higher education

8 ****

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• Global Quality Network

• Models for technology enhanced education

• Global Doctoral Consortium

AnalysisReportsInsight briefsActions, events and communities

ICDE Quality initiative

ICDE quality initiative

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ICDE Global Quality Network

Observe and analyseContribute to UNESCO events and reports

Suggest policies and actionsContribute to state of the art quality online, open, flexible and technology

enhanced learning

Region Focal Point on QualityArab region Dr. Souma Alhaj Ali

HBMSU (Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University)United Arab Emirates

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8 ****

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The change

• From focus on– Quality of students

admitted– Qualification of faculty– Design and management

of programmes– Rigour of marking– Course outputs as

intended outcome?

• To focus on– Student engagement and

satisfaction– Data analytics– Reflective assesments by

students– Student-instructor-

student interaction– Assessments for learning– Faculty satisfaction and

engagement

8 ****

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A great infrastructure is hepful in facilitating the educational change

Where are Arab states?

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Population % Population

( 2016 Est. ) (Penetration)

Yemen 27,392,779 24.7 %

Syria 18,563,595 29.6 %

Iraq 37,547,686 37.3 %

Palestine (West Bk.) 2,839,777 63.2 %

Saudi Arabia 32,157,974 64.7 %

Iran 82,801,633 68.5 %

Oman 4,654,471 71.1 %

Israel 8,174,527 72.7 %

Jordan 7,747,800 73.6 %

Lebanon 5,988,153 75.9 %

Kuwait 4,007,145 79.9 %

United Arab Emirates 9,266,971 91.9 %

Bahrain 1,378,904 92.7 %

Qatar 2,258,283 97.4 %

Gaza Strip 1,921,202 n/a

MIDDLE EAST

Middle East Internet Users and

Population Statistics 2016

http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats5.htm

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https://www.theatlas.com/

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https://www.theatlas.com/

Oman

Quatar

UAE

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Bahrain

Global average

Map of the Gulf Cooperation Council's

member. Wikipedia

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Where the Digital Economy Is Moving the FastestBhaskar Chakravorti Christopher Tunnard Ravi Shankar Chaturvedi FEBRUARY 19, 2015

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The Future is Now

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ec.europa.eu/research/pdf/publications/knowledge_future_2050.pdf

December 2015

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Open• Principle 1: An open

knowledge system in Europe

Inno• Principle 2: Flexibility and

experimentation in innovation

Coop• Principle 3: European-level

cooperation

ec.europa.eu/research/pdf/publications/knowledge_future_2050.pdf

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ICDE ad hoc observations,

trends and analysis

+ +

Simplified version

An Education 2030 foresight

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2015 2030+2030

Globalisation

Demography

Technology

Megatrends

SDG4 Education 2030Incheon-declarationQingdao-declarationFramework for Action

Option A: The world´s Success

Option B: The world misses out

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• Option A: The world´s Success

• Competitive regions –clusters of HEI flourishing.• Education is ‘in’. New efficiencies: course modules

shared within university clusters, online and artificial intelligence-based teaching, specialisation within institutions public and private.

• Educational games, at which regional designers excel, are a vast market segment.

• In business, open innovation is now the dominant mode. The Globe´s mega-cities, are a focus for innovation; ‘Paris original’ – or Qingdao or Nairobi are global brands.

• Automation and data-intensive science have changed the nature of doing research. We have moved from open science to radical open access: all kinds of new actors are rushing into the research game, especially in astronomy, ecology, climate and other fields that attract strong public interest. Regions are competing in taking the lead in producing the world’s ideas, creativity is flourishing.

• So are also industries anchored in regions, often building on healthy SMEs. The region´s universities are strong, its citizens fulfilled – and its core values, such as equality, openness, social inclusion and environmental responsibility, are upheld.

• Option B: The world misses out

• The Globe is a victim of megatrends beyond its control. Automation and globalisation have triggered mass unemployment, social exclusion, discontent.

• What’s left for the humans to do? Inequality is higher than ever; new creative jobs are constantly evolving from new technologies, but they are only for the skilled few.

• Politically, regions have fragmented into a coalition of rich and poor sub-regions with minimal coordination. Multinational companies, and wealthy individuals, use global markets and digital technologies to avoid tax.

• A few great universities dominate; many weaker, regional universities have closed or merged. Automation has also swept across the educational system, with online certifications normal and augmented cognition technologies starting to appear – and finding favour with big companies wanting fast, cheap graduates.

• Top cited scientists are in hot demand – often hired by multinationals in a kind of perpetual ‘consultancy without borders. Mobility is diminished. Innovation is without borders; supply chains form and dissemble rapidly – making long-term regional development more difficult than ever.

• Regions look inward, fear the future, and see their values gradually discredited.

• Flourishing regions – a much more balanced world

• Education core value from cradle to grave

• Open innovation – Smart cities leading developments

• Automation for human expansion and a sustainable world

• Regional creative knowledge clusters

• Equality, openness, social inclusion and environmental responsibility

• The Globe victim for megatrends beyond human control. Automation triggered massive discontent.

• Inequality, creative jobs for the few

• Coalitions of rich and poor. Low regional coordination

• A few universities dominate. Online has become the way to satisfy big companies need for cheap graduates

• Innovation without borders – regional growth disintegrate

• Regions fear the future

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Option A: The world´s Success

2015 2030+2030

Globalisation

Demography

Technology

Education2030

Megatrends

Option B: The world misses out

SDG4 Education 2030Incheon-declarationQingdao-declarationFramework for Action

Openess

Collaboration

Flexibility and innovation

Megapolicies

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Good Teachers and Rich Content

Open up for great learning experience

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• Woman in virtual glasses

73

Now what?

Thanks to Martin Bean, RMIT, Australia

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74

Magic Leap

Thanks to Martin Bean, RMIT, Australia

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Message:

• Learners first. Learners are the future. They are here. Now. For a quality learning experience. Quality as priority 1.

• Lead digital transformation. Lead transformation of education for SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and quality education for all and promote lifelong learning.

• Go Open, Innovative and Collaborative.

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”TOWARDS INCLUSIVE AND EQUITABLE QUALITY EDUCATION AND LIFELONG LEARNING FOR ALL”

Sustainable Development Goal 4: Education 2030

THANK [email protected]

www.icde.org