Lao PDR REPORT

Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for

Asia (FOCRAII)

“Current Status of Climate monitoring and Long -

range Weather Forecast in Lao PDR

08 – 10 April 2013Beijing, China

by: Mr. Vanhdy DOUANGMALA Department of Meteorology and Hydrology , Lao PDR

Outline

Introduction

Current status of facilities and services

Hydro–Meteorological Network and data exchange

Natural disasters in Lao PDR

Tropical Cyclone Monitoring

Long-range weather forecast in Lao PDR

Introduction

Lao PDR is located at the SE of Asia Total areas: 236.800 Km2Population: 5.9 million (2007’s statistics)Rural population: 69 %density: 25 people/km2 Average annual population

growth rate: 2.1%

GDP per capita ( US$ , 2006) : 674 Number of provinces : 17 The main River is MEKONG Length of 1. 865 km flow through Laos There are 13 major tributaries

Climate of Lao PDR

The distribution of mean annual rainfall over the Lao PDR shows:

the highest rainfalls of more than 3000 mm/year occur in the upper of central, also in central of southern regions.

and the lowest less than 1500 mm/year localized in the northern region.

NE monsoon

Transition

SW monsoon

NE monsoon

J an

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

J un

J ul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Cooler Hot / Dry Wet Hot / Dry

Annual average Isohyets (1988–2007)

The Rainfall Climate of Lao PDR

Current Status of Facilities and Services

• MTSAT-1R– Located in headquarter

– MTSAT-VIS– MTSAT-IR1– MTSAT-IR2– MTSAT-IR3– MTSAT-IR4

– Renew every 30 minute

• Doppler weather Radar– Located in headquarter– C-band– Intensity mode 400 km– Doppler mode 120 km

Doppler Weather RADAR

8th Floor

1st Floor

6th Floor

Observation & Forecasting

Equipment:Operation, Control & Maintenance

High Data Rate Spread Spectrum Transceiver

(SST)

2.4GHz, Wireless Link

(Point to Point)

Radar Tower Site

DMH Headquarters

Air Traffic Control Tower Site

International Airport (Wattay)

Hi-speed Data TX & RX of 54Mbps

Main targeted ServiceFor Safety Air Navigation

FengYunCast,C- band Ground Receiving Station Architecture

At initial stage, DMH Lao PDR has only installed and operated the Weather Monitoring Subsystem (Upper part), but the future improvement plan will cover

the Environmental Monitoring Sub-system (Lower part).

FENGYUNCASTFENGYUNCAST

♦ Lao Earthquake station, with VSAT

► Data Sharing Topology via VSATVSAT

Station 1

Station 2

Data center at Vientiane

Data center at Beijing

Waveform dataReal time

(C E A’s VSATVSAT)

e-mail / Internet

A E I Cand

Other Centers

e-m

ail / In

terne

t

Dedicated Link to be

established

Hydro - meteorological Network in Laos

METEOROLOGICAL NETWORK:

- Main synoptic station = 17

- Secondary synoptic station =33

(monthly data recording only).

- Rain gauges = 113 stations.

HYDROLOGICAL NETWORK:

- Staff gauges = 109 stations

- Discharge = 49 stations

C – Band Doppler Radar

MTSAT 1R receiving station at DMH

FENGYUN Cast Satellite Receiving Station

Data collection at DMH

• At national level :

• All domestic stations transmit their observed, raw data encoded format to DMH by SSB HF transceiver and public telephone . These data are serves for weather and flood forecast and some selected data are exchanged regionally via GTS network of WMO

International level

• Data from other countries can be selected by GTS link from Bangkok RTH in order to fulfill the task of weather forecast and warning on Hydro-meteorological severe event.

Tropical Cyclone Monitoring

Various observational data were applied to reveal tropical cyclone monitoring such as:

- Meteorological observation data

- Weather maps

- Satellite imageries

- Doppler Radar data

- Utilize the typhoon forecast and NWP Products from ECWMF, RSMC, (JMA) Tokyo, CMA, KMA, Hong Kong and other centre trough GTS and Internet.

Forecast & Warning Dissemination in Laos

Department of Meteorology & Hydrology

http://dmhlao.etllao.comWMOGTS

NetworkLNMC

MAF Mass Media TV Radio

News

Provincial Hydro – Meteo

Stations

Provincial TV Radio

Provincial Agriculture and Forestry Services

NDMC ( NDMO) Line ministries concerned

PDMC

DDMC

Village Disaster Prevention

Districts & villages affected areas

Aviation.Intl. Airport

M I H

Electricity Hydro– power

Private companies

Local Authorities

People in affecting areas

Prime Minister’s

Office

MONRE

Natural disasters in Lao PDR• The main natural disasters in Lao PDR are drought and

flood. Flood usually occurs in rapid succession when the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is the forward edge of the southwest monsoon or when two or more tropical cyclones disturbances.

• The occurrence of series extreme weather disturbances in Lao PDR consists as follow:

• Local storms (whirlwind) • Drought• Flood• Local Heavy Rain• Torrential rains (flash flood) • Typhoon• Landslide• Earthquake

Figure.12 The MTSAT-1R infrared channel (i) TS Xangsane 0615 on 01 October 2006 and flood impacts by TS Xangsane at Samakkhixai district (ii) (Attapeu province)

Figure.13 Households affected at Mahaxay district (Khamuane province) on Aug. 2005

Land slide From heavy rainfall

Figure. 11 Landslide pictures at Oudomxay province on August 2005

TYPHOON KETSANA (0915) AFFECTED AREAS

IASC joint assessment 19 - 24 October. World Bank post IASC joint assessment 19 - 24 October. World Bank post disaster recovery assessment looking at longer term disaster recovery assessment looking at longer term infrastructure assistance from 20 October for 2 weeks.infrastructure assistance from 20 October for 2 weeks.

Overall affected by TY Ketsana on 29 Sep. 2009

• Province : 5

• District : 43

• Village : 822

• Population : 272.943 people

• Dead : 28

• Missing : 1

• Injured : 94

• Household : 52.547 HHs affected; Displaced Household : 10,670.

• Rice fields : 31,967 hectares of rice and crop fields were damaged

• 3.178 houses affected; 1.194 houses damaged completely.

• Schools: 91. Hospitals: 10. Irrigation: 144. Roads: 47

Total damage 58 million USD ( Data source: NDMO MLSW , February 2010)

National Disaster Management Framework

• Framework

DMH

The major forms of weather phenomenon related in to flooding in Laos are:

An average 3.4 Typhoons of various intensities best track over Laos per annum

Some Typhoon landing to Indochina , the precipitation system of TC is maintained over Laos and caused torrential rain and big floods

Strong S W winds containing large amount of water vapor blows from Bay Bengal and gulf of Thailand in to Laos produce heavy rainfall caused flash flood.

The transition of ITCZ move toward east on South China Sea and approach Indochina peninsula in June to September produce heavy rainfall.

On period 1966 – 2008 Laos experienced 31 floods, notable floods occurs every 1.4 years on average and every 5.7 years occurs large floods . These large floods caused by combination of TCs and strong SW monsoon from Bay Bengal.

The slopes of the mountains are key component, which generate the draining down rapidly from upstream through the rivers in to the low laying area (urban cities) during passage of Typhoon

1

10

1714

24

18

8

1

Monthly frequency of Tropical Cyclones Best Tracks over Laos (1971 – 2000)

Monthly frequency of Tropical Cyclone Best Tracks over Laos from (1991- 2004) and ( 2005 – 2009 )

1

67

5

12

10

2

4

6

8

10

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

The monthly maximum (%) frequency of TCs Best Tracks over Laos observed during Aug. (1991–2004) about 30.4 % = 7 numbers

1 1

32

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1991- 2004 2005 - 2009

The monthly maximum frequency of TCs Best Tracks over Laos observed during Sep.(2005 –2009) .

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS AUGUST ( 1991- 2004 )

Identification Year / number TS, STS or TY --------- TD YY/NN

9613

There are 23 numbers of TCs Best Tracks over Laos ( 1991- 2004)

During August (1991- 2004) about 7 numbers of TCs passed through Laos

In August mostly the TCs tracked in to Central part of Laos

Source data: Annual report of the RSMC Tokyo Tropical Best Tracks

9312

9111

9509

0110

0011

9715

Forecaster Support System

DATA HANDLING Data transmission and data collection from different sources decodes observations and plotting Analysis , Briefing and forecasts

DATA VISUALISATION User configurable display of Observations, Radar, Satellite User configurable display of Weather Model Data Multiple layer overlays

PRODUCT GENERATION Using Dream WeaverUsing Dream Weaver to create a statistic web page of

meteorological

and Hydrological information. Incorporates with mass - media in publishing of meteorological and Hydrological information and Early Warnings to users

Synergie Version 3.4.0 for Met. Service of Laos

Model Parameter Overlay

NWPNWP products from ECMWF for Severe Weather monitoring and forecasting products from ECMWF for Severe Weather monitoring and forecasting in Laosin Laos

T 850 Chart ( Forecast for

24 , 48 and 72 hrs )Upper air Charts 850 & 200 mb

( Forecast for 24 , 48 and 72 hrs )

Surface Automatic drawing

National Outreach – MRC Flash Flood Guidance

Forecaster interface

- Designed for quick access and easy navigation

to regional and country products

Flash Flood Guidance System implementation in MRC member countries , (Cambodia , Lao PDR , Thailand and Vietnam ) through funding from

USAID office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance ( OFDA)

National Outreach – MRC FFG

MRCFFG System Design catchments delineation

Merged mean a real precipitation

Flash flood Guidance -Hourly , 3 - hourly and 6 – hourly flash flood guidance ( mm ) for Laos

- The value indicate the total volume of rainfall over the given duration which is just enough to cause bank full flow in the draining stream.

- Rainfall volume of the same duration grater than the FFG likelihood of over bank flows at the draining stream outlet.

- This product appropriate to use in real time forecast s of rainfall to estimate the risk of flash flooding.

- Updated wit soil moisture.

Long-range weather Forecast in Lao PDR

• Divided into 4 parts forecast: northeast, north-western, central and southern parts

• Used statistical and dynamic method

• Utilized climate information and prediction from ECMWF,JMA,CMA, KMA and other centre

Monthly and Seasonal rainfall forecast

• Use long term rainfall data series and Sea-surface temperature anomalies from (Central

Eastern Pacific and Indian Oceans sea-surface temperature anomalies) to analyze the data by FlowCast and Scopic Model which developed

from Climate change Center of excellence, Environment protection Agency (Australia).

• This Model provided out Look of Monthly rainfall and Temperature situation station by

station. And Update every Month.

Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for March 2013 Monthly rainfall estimation in and Mean minimum, Mean maximum Temperature in oC by using Scopic SoftwareThis data based upon the average December 2012to February 2013 values of "SSTa's 1,2 and 9"(Central Eastern Pacific and Indian Oceans sea-surface temperature anomalies)

Station RR(mm) Predicted Probability Mean Tn (oC) Predicted Probability Mean Tx (oC) Predicted Probability Attapeu 7.8 - 39.2 Below Normal 55% 22.9 - 23.6 Above Normal 41% 35.6 - 36.3 Above Normal 42%Bokeo 8.0 - 61.3 Normal 55% 18.1 - 18.5 Normal 69% 32.5 - 34.3 Below Normal 45%luangnamtha 27.5 - 66.4 Normal 40% 14.8 - 15.2 Belwo Normal 60% 30.6 - 31.6 Normal 61%Luangprabang 17.7 - 45.8 Normal 50% 17.8 - 18.3 Above Normal 56% 32.6 - 34.4 Above Normal 38%Oudomxay 29.2 - 56.4 Below Normal 59% 13.7 - 14.4 Above Normal 45% 30.1 - 31.9 Above Normal 43%Paksane 20.7 - 59.6 Above Normal 50% 20.7 - 21.5 Below Normal 51% 32.4 - 33.1 Below Normal 42%Pakse 4.5 - 32.2 Above Normal 69% 23.5 - 24.6 Normal 82% 34.5 - 35.2 Normal 46%Phonehong 17.0 - 50.7 Normal 56% 19.7 - 20.6 Above Normal 53% 32.7 - 34.1 Normal 53%Phongsaly 38.8 - 91.8 Below Normal 43% 15.2 - 16.0 Below Normal 54% 24.9 - 26.6 Normal 40%Saravanne 11.1 - 34.6 Below Normal 46% 22.2 - 22.8 Above Normal 83% 34.6 - 35.5 Normal 41%Savannakhet 14.7 - 39.2 Above Normal 63% 20.8 - 22.2 Normal 80% 33.4 - 34.6 Normal 61%Sayabouly 20.9 - 45.5 Below Normal 39% 17.9 - 18.7 Above Normal 54% 32.5 - 33.6 Normal 51%Sekong 19.3 - 40.5 Below Normal 85% 21.1 - 21.4 Below Normal 45% 35.7 - 36.4 Above Normal 40%Seno 14.4 - 34.9 Normal 40% 20.2 - 21.6 Normal 43% 32.6 - 34.2 Normal 62%Thakhek 41.2 - 90.5 Normal 48% 20.6 - 21.5 Normal 46% 33.4 - 34.2 Above Normal 53%Viengxay 24.9 - 50.3 Below Normal 69% 14.2 - 15.0 Normal 62% 25.3 - 26.7 Normal 54%Vientiane 15.1 - 45.4 Above Normal 44% 21.4 - 22.2 Above Normal 51% 32.3 - 33.6 Above Normal 41%Xiengkhuang 17.5 - 64.3 Below Normal 59% 13.4 - 14.6 Above Normal 53% 27.6 - 29.0 Normal 41%

Remarks:RR= Total Rainfall in mmTx= Mean Maximum temperature in oCTn= Mean Minimum temperature in oC

Mar-13

Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for April 2013 Monthly rainfall estimation in and Mean minimum, Mean maximum Temperature in oC by using Scopic SoftwareThis data based upon the average December 2012to February 2013 values of "SSTa's 1,2 and 9"(Central Eastern Pacific and Indian Oceans sea-surface temperature anomalies)

Station RR(mm) Predicted Probability Mean Tn (oC) Predicted Probability Mean Tx (oC) Predicted Probability Attapeu 51.0 - 81.1 Normal 59% 24.4 - 24.9 Above Normal 74% 35.6 - 36.7 Above Normal 68%Bokeo 112.7 - 133.2 Below Normal 38% 21.1 - 21.3 Above Normal 42% 33.7 - 34.3 Above Normal 44%luangnamtha 81.4 - 132.9 Normal 74% 18.8 - 19.3 Normal 42% 31.4 - 33.2 Above Normal 47%Luangprabang 65.8 - 129.0 Above Normal 37% 21.1 - 21.8 Normal 43% 34.2 - 35.3 Normal 62%Oudomxay 74.9 - 141.5 Above Normal 47% Normal 73% 31.2 - 32.9 Above Normal 56%Paksane 78.3 - 137.1 Normal 61% 23.2 - 23.7 Below Normal 38% 33.2 - 34.3 Normal 38%Pakse 36.1 - 73.8 Above Normal 42% 25.1 - 25.9 Above Normal 70% 34.8 - 35.9 Normal 47%Phonehong 73.3 - 111.7 Above Normal 55% 22.6 - 23.4 Above Normal 46% 33.7 - 35.2 Above Normal 48%Phongsaly 69.5 - 104.1 Below Normal 66% 16.9 - 17.7 Below Normal 63% 26.7 - 28.2 Below Normal 42%Saravanne 62.8 - 93.6 Below Normal 40% 23.9 - 24.7 Above Normal 70% 34.8 - 35.9 Normal 66%Savannakhet 51.9 - 93.4 Below Normal 54% 23.5 - 24.4 Normal 40% 34.3 - 35.5 Below Normal 54%Sayabouly 85.2 - 140.9 Normal 52% 21.4 - 22.0 Normal 80% 33.3 - 34.5 Normal 37%Sekong 72.4 - 93.4 Below Normal 51% 23.2 - 23.6 Normal 38% 35.3 - 36.3 AboveNormal 39%Seno 45.3 - 87.6 Normal 45% 22.8 - 23.9 Normal 49% 33.7 - 34.8 Normal 39%Thakhek 52.7 - 106.5 Below Normal 43% 23.3 - 23.9 Normal 52% 34.5 - 35.6 Below Normal 49%Viengxay 92.5 - 137.2 Normal 58% 17.8 - 18.2 Normal 78% 28.0 - 29.1 Normal 54%Vientiane 56.4 - 111.0 Normal 47% 24.0 - 24.5 Normal 66% 33.8 - 35.0 Above Normal 41%Xiengkhuang 111.2 - 154.2 Normal 51% 16.6 - 17.3 Above Normal 55% 28.2 - 29.3 Above Normal 46%

Remarks:RR= Total Rainfall in mmTx= Mean Maximum temperature in oCTn= Mean Minimum temperature in oC

Apr-13

Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for May 2013 Monthly rainfall estimation in and Mean minimum, Mean maximum Temperature in oC by using Scopic SoftwareThis data based upon the average December 2012to February 2013 values of "SSTa's 1,2 and 9"(Central Eastern Pacific and Indian Oceans sea-surface temperature anomalies)

Station RR(mm) Predicted Probability Mean Tn (oC) Predicted Probability Mean Tx (oC)Predicted Probability Attapeu 180.7 - 239.5 Abobe Normal 42% 24.4 - 25.2 Above Normal 56% 33.5 - 34.8 Above Normal 74%Bokeo 205.7 - 254.0 Below Normal 51% Normal 71% 31.3 - 32.8 Above Normal 56%luangnamtha 192.0 - 234.4 Below Normal 46% 21.0 - 21.7 Below Normal 38% 30.8 - 31.3 Above Normal 80%Luangprabang 126.3 - 170.3 Normal 50% 23.0 - 23.7 Normal 42% 33.4 - 34.1 Normal 42%Oudomxay 159.8 - 217.4 Above Normal 61% 20.8 - 21.1 Above Normal 46% 30.3 - 31.6 Above Normal 41%Paksane 359.0 - 443.9 Above Normal 34% 23.8 - 24.3 Above Normal 48% 32.0 - 32.3 Above Normal 58%Pakse 139.2 - 253.5 Normal 52% 24.8 - 25.4 Above Normal 57% 32.8 - 33.7 Normal 57%Phonehong 271.1 - 387.8 Normal 53% 23.9 - 24.2 Above Normal 54% 32.1 - 33.2 Normal 56%Phongsaly 129.5 - 215.7 Normal 47% 17.7 - 18.4 Above Normal 49% 25.9 - 27.0 Above Normal 60%Saravanne 174.8 - 247.0 Normal 58% 24.5 - 24.9 Above Normal 72% 32.6 - 33.6 Normal 38%Savannakhet 138.1 - 199.4 Above Normal 62% 24.0 - 24.9 Normal 39% 33.2 - 34.3 Normal 34%Sayabouly 155.9 - 216.0 Normal 39% 23.3 - 23.6 Above Normal 50% 31.8 - 32.8 Above Normal 67%Sekong 145.8 - 189.3 Normal 52% 23.9 - 24.3 Normal 54% 33.5 - 34.4 Normal 41%Seno 150.7 - 227.5 Below Normal 52% 23.5 - 24.2 Above Normal 91% 32.0 - 33.3 Normal 49%Thakhek 203.4 - 272.8 Normal 79% 23.9 - 24.5 Above Normal 44% 33.1 - 34.1 Normal 40%Viengxay 196.0 - 284.9 Normal 90% 19.0 - 19.8 Normal 43% 28.4 - 29.3 Above Normal 44%Vientiane 192.2 - 299.2 Below Normal 44% 24.6 - 25.0 Below Normal 35% 32.7 - 33.3 Normal 39%Xiengkhuang 149.0 - 212.2 Normal 46% 18.9 - 19.3 Above Normal 70% 27.3 - 28.3 Above Normal 77%

Remarks:RR= Total Rainfall in mmTx= Mean Maximum temperature in oCTn= Mean Minimum temperature in oC

May-13

Three Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for MAM 20133 Monthly rainfall estimation in and Mean minimum, Mean maximum Temperature in oC by using Scopic SoftwareThis data based upon the average December 2012to February 2013 values of "SSTa's 1,2 and 9"(Central Eastern Pacific and Indian Oceans sea-surface temperature anomalies)

MAM-13 MAM-13 MAM-13

Station RR (mm) Mean Tn (oC) Mean Tx (oC)

Attapeu 298.5 - 377.4 Normal 62% 23.9 - 24.4 Above Normal 72% 35.0 - 35.8 Above Normal 45%Bokeo 358.4 - 438.4 Below Normal 45% 20.6 - 20.9 Normal 64% 32.9 - 33.5 Above Normal 88%luangnamtha 351.4 - 429.5 Below Normal 54% 18.2 - 18.8 Normal 47% 31.3 - 31.9 Above Normal 56%Luangprabang 252.8 - 314.4 Above Normal 59% 20.8 - 21.1 Above Normal 55% 33.5 - 34.3 Above Normal 48%Oudomxay 319.0 - 377.5 Above Normal 44% 17.6 - 18.1 Above Normal 60% 30.9 - 31.6 Above Normal 83%Paksane 481.5 - 598.6 Above Normal 45% 22.7 - 23.1 Below Normal 47% 32.5 - 33.3 Above Normal 55%Pakse 227.8 - 349.2 Normal 49% 24.7 - 25.2 Above Normal 54% 34.1 - 34.9 Above Normal 41%Phonehong 412.9 - 542.8 Normal 49% 22.1 - 22.7 Above Normal 76% 33.1 - 33.8 Normal 50%Phongsaly 265.0 - 407.6 Below Normal 54% 16.5 - 17.4 Below Normal 54% 25.9 - 27.1 Above Normal 88%Saravanne 284.2 - 397.5 Normal 62% 23.5 - 24.0 Above Normal 87% 33.8 - 34.9 Normal 56%Savannakhet 239.5 - 315.6 Above Normal 56% 23.1 - 23.6 Below Normal 41% 33.5 - 34.7 belowNormal 56%Sayabouly 312.2 - 375.1 Normal 56% 21.0 - 21.3 Above Normal 78% 32.7 - 33.5 Above Normal 57%Sekong 282.5 - 329.4 Below Normal 93% 22.8 - 23.2 Below Normal 45% 34.7 - 35.7 Above Normal 75%Seno 237.3 - 330.5 Below Normal 47% 22.0 - 23.0 Above Normal 57% 32.8 - 33.8 Normal 44%Thakhek 339.0 - 438.3 Above Normal 42% 22.7 - 23.2 Normal 41% 33.6 - 34.5 Above Normal 63%Viengxay 359.0 - 448.0 Below Normal 47% 17.0 - 17.5 Above Normal 62% 27.3 - 28.3 Above Normal 79%Vientiane 292.1 - 403.9 Normal 57% 23.5 - 23.9 Below Normal 40% 33.0 - 33.8 Above Normal 46%Xiengkhuang 334.9 - 453.6 Below Normal 82% 16.1 - 16.9 Above Normal 67% 27.7 and 28.5 Above Normal 74%

Remarks:RR= Total Rainfall in mmTx= Mean Maximum temperature in oCTn= Mean Minimum temperature in oC

predicted probability predicted probability predicted probability